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Tuesday 21 April 2020

Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic

Putin's worst nightmare has arrived. This nightmare is best summed up by the following heading ..


So reported Patti Dom (20 April 2020). 

"The oil industry is in its worst crisis since at least the Great Depression (of the 1930's), according to analysts.

There’s too much oil, and nobody wants to buy any more. Planes aren’t flying, shipping has slowed, and U.S. consumers, who use 10% of the world’s oil output in their cars, are now staying at home." (CNBC : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)


Yet as recently as 12 April, BBC Business reported that,

"Opec producers and allies have agreed a record oil deal that will slash global output by about 10% after a slump in demand caused by coronavirus lockdowns.

The deal, agreed on Sunday via video conference, is the largest cut in oil production ever to have been agreed." (BBC Business : 12 April 2020) (my emphasis)

This level of oil-price volatility is still further depressing Putin's Russian economy.

As reported by Energyworld, Putin's

" ... National Wealth Fund has sufficient reserves to last until 2024 if oil prices remain at current levels, the TASS news agency quoted Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying on Sunday.
" (Energyworld : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

 However, Energyworld further reports that,

"Russia's economy will show "seriously negative figures for the second quarter", former economy minister Maxim Oreshkin (right), an aide to President Vladimir Putin, was quoted as saying by TASS." (ibid Energyworld) (my emphasis)

If the corona virus and the volatility of the price of oil is causing Putin to have nightmares, adding to his woes is the fact that,

"On April 20, 2020, Ukraine is taking over the Chairmanship of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation from Turkey."Our State will be the first to chair the Forum online, taking into account the situation associated with the COVID-19 pandemic," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Ukraine said in a statement on the beginning of Ukraine's presidency in the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation (FSC)." (UNIAN: 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Ukraine will be bringing to the fore,

" .... modern challenges to regional and international security, primarily hybrid threats, militarization and impediment of navigation in the Azov and Black Sea region ..." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

But what effect will Ukraine's chairmanship of the OSCE have on the continuous attacks by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas? 

As reported by UNIAN,

" The number of attacks by Russia's hybrid military forces on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, rose to 13 on April 20 with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action and another four as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 21 April 2020) (my emphasis)

As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine.

Now, more than ever, Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic. 

(to be continued)

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