Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

History tells us that Stalin was once supposed to have said that,

"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do." (Brainyquote)

 UNIAN now reports that,

"More than two dozen crew of the Russian Black Sea naval fleet's Project 22160 large patrol ship Vasily Bykov who voted against the constitutional amendments that would reset the count of Vladimir Putin's presidential terms say their commanders threaten to have them dismissed from service if they don't change their vote." (UNIAN : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

                           ( USNews : 22 June 2020)

And whilst Putin, in the embrace of the Russian Orthodox Church, silently knows that he will win this vote, Gabriela Baczynska and Francesco Guarascio report that,

"European Union leaders agreed on Friday to extend until the end of January next year their economic sanctions against Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the turmoil in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : 19 June 2020) (my emphasis)
 
And as reported by John Walcott, this EU sanctions extension has been followed by :

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments about the legitimacy of Russia’s borders in a documentary broadcast on Russian television have rattled some U.S. allies, fearful that he might be laying the groundwork for a further military incursion into Ukraine.
• Putin’s renewed defense of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea – .... In the documentary, Putin said, “Crimea has always been ours. Even from the judicial point-of-view.”
• The immediate focus of concern now, officials on both sides of the Atlantic said, is the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops and Ukrainian forces backed by NATO are locked in an uneasy ceasefire. (Time : 23 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin is now also intensifying his jamming of  Ukrainian Radio Stations that normally would have been received by listeners in Ukraine's Crimea. (UNIAN : 23 June 2020)

This threatening shot across the Ukrainian military/political bows by Putin could herald a pre-emptive military strike as Ukraine receives Javelin anti-tank missiles from the US.

As reported by UNIAN,

""On June 16, as part of a pilot project under the U.S. Government's 'International Military Sales' program, Ukraine received the first batch of cargo under the contract signed in December 2019, namely missiles for Javelin anti-tank missile systems and additional equipment totaling over US$27 million," the report reads. FGM-148E missiles which are one of the latest versions of Javelin system's anti-tank missiles were delivered for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 24 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 

At the same time, as reported by The Canadian Press,

"The Canadian Armed Forces is deploying military trainers back to Ukraine as it looks to restart some of the many missions and exercises temporarily suspended or scaled back because of COVID-19.
...
"These personnel will deploy in June 2020, and observe a 14-day isolation period on arrival in Ukraine. On completion of this isolation period, they will be prepared to resume their mission of supporting the Security Forces of Ukraine." (CTVNews : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And on the political front, as reported by Roland Oliphant,

"The president of Ukraine has asked that his country be left out of November’s  US presidential election after a Ukrainian MP published tapes apparently intended to embarrass Joe Biden. 

Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied involvement in last month's leak of conversations between Mr Biden and Petro Poroshenko, his predecessor, and told the Telegraph he did not want the scandal to undermine Ukraine’s strategic alliance with the United States.  (The Telegraph: 1 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky may wish for Ukraine to be left out of the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections.

However, Ukraine's involvement in the 2020 US presidential elections, like the Corona virus, cannot simply be wished away by Zelensky when Trump, currently fighting for his political life, will go to any lengths to discredit Joe Biden, his opponent in the 2020 US presidential elections, and dragging Biden's name through the Ukrainian mud is at the top of his re-election efforts.

MSNBC : 26 June 2020

 
Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should be aware that like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

In 2014 the Maidan Revolution of Dignity led to the ousting of the then president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich , who was then helped by Putin to escape into his arms, and who now still resides in Russia under the protection of Putin.

And in 2014, Putin's anger at the ousting of Yanukovich boiled over, and he invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Two years later, in 2016, at the Republican National Convention that choose Donald Trump to be their US presidential candidate Paul Manafort, Trump's then campaign chair and chief strategist, sought to overturn then US President Obama's support for the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas, and Ukraine's regaining of Crimea.

Diana Denman (left), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing  sanctions [introduced by President Obama] against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military." (cf. Josh Rogin)

As then reported by Josh Rogin (right) at the 2016 Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

This "behind the scenes" effort was orchestrated by none other than Paul Manafort, who is now languishing in a US prison.

Fast forward to today and we have the 'thread of the Revolution of Dignity of Maidan' once again beginning to take centre-stage in the upcoming US presidential election of 2020.

 As now revealed in the upcoming release of the book, "The Room Where It Happened",  by Trump's former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, Trump not only tried to 'shake down Ukraine's President Zelensky for 'dirt' on Joe Biden, his opponent in the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections, but also sought the help of Chinese President Xi Jinping to win his re-election.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"President Donald Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton writes in his upcoming memoir that Trump sought Chinese President Xi Jinping's help in winning re-election during a closed-door meeting in June 2019, according to a report in the New York Times on Wednesday.

Trump reportedly asked the Chinese leader during trade negotiations at a summit in Osaka, Japan to buy more agricultural products in order to help him win farm states in the November general election." (Aljazeera : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 18 June 2020 (Brian Williams)

Brian Williams also reveals that,

"... Bolton also writes about House Democrats efforts to impeach the president for abuse of power for holding up security aid [to Ukraine] while pressuring [Zelensky] Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into the Biden's .." (ibid MSNBC video above)

The revelations in Bolton's book, exposing as it does the 'shakedown' of Zelensky by Trump during that fateful telephone conversation between them in July of last year, is now causing Trump's re-election strategy to have severe headaches.

CNBC : 25 September 2019

It is therefore no coincidence that, having had a copy of John Bolton's book for vetting purposes before its release, without warning his generals NOR the German Government, Trump suddenly announced the pullout of 10000 US troops from Germany.

As reported by the New York Times (Associated Press),

"President Donald Trump said Monday he is ordering a major reduction in U.S. troop strength in Germany, a move widely criticized by members of his own party as a gift to Russia and a threat to U.S. national security." (New York Times : 16 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW : Youtube 6 June 2020

The response of the Pentagon to Trump's 'gift to Putin' was to,

"The United States plans to give Ukraine $250 million through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for training and equipment to strengthen the country’s ability defend itself against Russia, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

The funds for fiscal 2020 are being sent to deter “Russian aggression,” the Pentagon said in a statement." (Mike Stone : Reuters : 11 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The U.S. State Department has cleared a potential sale to Ukraine of 16 Mark VI patrol boats and other gear worth $600 million, it was announced Wednesday.
...
Along with the modern and fast patrol boats, the sale includes various weapons, sensors and communications gear to deter Russia from muscling Ukraine in the contested Kerch Strait and key ports along the Azov Sea." ( Joe Gould  :  Defense News : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

If these developments are not enough to send Putin into an apoplectic rage, then the current fall in the price of oil should.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Oil prices fell around 1% on Thursday as a spike in new coronavirus cases in China and the United States renewed fears that a recovery in fuel demand could stall, even as lockdowns ease." (UNIAN : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

To protect himself against the corona-virus; Putin may have erected a 'disinfection tunnel' through which all his visitors have to pass before meeting with him but he cannot protect himself and his 'siloviki' from falling oil prices.

As reported by The Economic Times,

"Visitors meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at his country residence must first pass through a walk-through device that sprays them with disinfectant, to protect him from the coronavirus, officials said." (The Economic Times : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time as the price of oil is falling, RFE/RL reports that,

"The German government has "noted with regret" a U.S. proposal to expand sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
"New sanctions would constitute a serious interference in European energy security and EU sovereignty," a statement by the Foreign Ministry said on June 14." RFE/RL : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

The German economy, under the corona-virus lock-down in so many countries that it exports to, is beginning to seriously tremble. (cf also: Svar Nanan-Sen : Express: 7 June 2020)

For Zelensky, US military aid and the falling price of oil should give him some comfort.

But this comfort should not be taken for granted.

Like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

Zelensky should be constantly aware of this incontrovertible political fact.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

"Despite pandemics, economic stagnation, and multiple domestic and foreign crises, Russia continues its war against Ukraine and even fabricates new threats.  Since it has become clear that the Minsk process, the process based on agreements there in 2015 is not going anywhere, Russia is raising the ante.  Because it cannot induce or compel Ukraine politically to sign its own death warrant and convert itself into a confederacy where Russian agents from the Donbass would have veto power over Kyiv's government, Moscow has alighted upon a new tactic.  As it has done in Georgia, it is now issuing hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to residents of the Donbass in preparation for the formal incorporation of the territory into the Russian state." (Real Clear Defense : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

So wrote Stephen Blank (right) in an article that fully exposes the intention of Putin to dismember Ukraine and incorporate the Donbas (and where next??) into Russia, as was done with Crimea.

Even more significantly, Stephen Blank reveals that,

"Therefore, it is no surprise that Ukrainian sources report that the Crimea situation is developing towards the capture of Ukraine territories that give access to water from the Dnieper River. Russia has increased the military contingent in and around Crimea to about a reported 80,000 troops and concentrated its engineering units in the north of the Crimea."

Putin has not shifted his gaze from conquering a land-bridge between Russia and Ukraine.

Is the invasion of Mariupol next on Putin's war agenda?

Is Zelensky now playing 'political roulette'?

Vitaliy Syzov writes that,

"Zelenskyy’s critics claim to see growing evidence of Kremlin influence throughout government.

They cite the recent attempts to  

• appoint toxic figures with ties to the pro-Russian administration of disgraced ex-president Viktor Yanukovych, 
• and question Zelenskyy’s moderate stance on the traditionally thorny issues of language policy and national memory.  
• Meanwhile, his one-sided efforts to reinvigorate the stalled peace process through repeated concessions to the Kremlin continue to generate deep suspicion." (Atlantic Council : 4 June 2020) (my emphasis

Furthermore, according to Vitaliy Syzov,
"... the former comedian has attempted to emphasize less politically explosive themes such as economic growth, the fight against corruption, and personal freedoms in business and private life. At the same time, he has made the intensification of peace negotiations the number one priority of his presidency." (ibid Vitaliy Syzov) (my emphasis)

That Zelensky's may be failing in his peace negotiations with Putin is best expressed in the words of  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, (left) who recently denied that,

"... Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has underestimated the challenge of achieving peace with Russia.

Talking to DW, Kuleba said Zelenskiy "fully realizes how difficult it is to make a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and make him withdraw from Ukraine and de-occupy Donbass." (DW : 2 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW 2 June 2020

In his interview on DW (above), Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that,

"We understand that the United States is currently in a difficult situation and we support American democracy. We hope that all these issues will be left behind with American standards of Human Rights and democratic government. And I'm absolutely confident that the partnership between the United States and Ukraine can not be shattered."

Whilst true that the US-Ukraine partnership cannot be shattered, nonetheless it is also true that US President Trump has a strange affection for (fear of?) Putin that also cannot be denied.

One merely has to recollect the political fallout of that fateful telephone conversation between Trump and Zelensky in July of last year, Trump's accolytes continuing to try and find Ukrainian 'dirt' on Biden and his son, and Trump vowing that the Biden-Ukraine connection will take  centre stage in his current re-election attempt.

Trump-Zelensky Call (Youtube)

It is therefore interesting to note Ilya Zhegulev (left) reporting that,

"An audit of thousands of old case files by Ukrainian prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Hunter Biden, the former prosecutor general [Ruslan Ryaboshapka (right)] who had launched the audit, told Reuters.

“I specifically asked prosecutors to check especially carefully those facts about Biden’s alleged involvement. They answered that there was nothing of the kind,” he added." (Reuters : 4 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet, as reported by Ukraine Today on 20 May 2020,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for an investigation Wednesday of leaked recordings purportedly depicting then-Vice President Joe Biden telling Zelensky’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko that his country would receive U.S. aid once top prosecutor Viktor Shokin was replaced.
...


Andriy Derkach (left), a member of Ukraine’s parliament, released the recordings a day earlier.
...
 Derkach was “previously aligned with a pro-Russian faction and has past links to Russian intelligence.” Derkach’s father reportedly worked for the KGB — and was allegedly terminated amid a scandal “over a Ukrainian journalist who was kidnapped and murdered.”

Poroshenko reportedly blamed Russia for the leak, calling the audio “bogus” and seeking an investigation of the leak itself." (Ukraine Today : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

As yet we do not know if Zelensky has ordered an investigation into the leak itself.

What we do know is that there has been a "flurry" of calls between Trump and Putin during this Corona-Virus pandemic.

As reported by Julian Borger (left),

"Donald Trump has offered to invite Vladimir Putin to an expanded G7 meeting in September, but the invitation has already been adamantly opposed by the UK and Canada.
...
Trump raised the possibility of inviting Russia on Saturday, after the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, had made clear she would not attend the Camp David summit." (The Guardian : 1 June 2020) (my emphasis) 

This invitation extended by Trump towards Putin should be viewed against the backdrop of Trump's falling popularity among the American electorate.  

 MSNBC : 4 June 2020

Also bear in mind that the upcoming US presidential election is only 5 months away, and Trump is now pulling out all the stops as his administration is beset with public demonstrations across the country.

Indeed, one may ask whether Trump is taking a leaf out of the book of Putin in drastically quelling the right of the public to protest.

 MSNBC 4  June 2020

Zelensky should bear in mind that the upcoming US presidential election is in 5 months time.

At this stage, Zelensky's call on 20 May to investigate a "leaked tape" that purportedly implicates Trump's presidential rival, Joe Biden, and that Zelensky said at a news conference in Ukraine that the contents of the leaked conversations “might be perceived, qualified as high treason” (ibid Ukraine Today), can only be viewed as playing Political Roulette, a political act that is potentially very dangerous to himself.

Is Zelensky now playing 'political roulette'?

(to be continued)