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Thursday 18 June 2020

Zelensky should be aware that like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

In 2014 the Maidan Revolution of Dignity led to the ousting of the then president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich , who was then helped by Putin to escape into his arms, and who now still resides in Russia under the protection of Putin.

And in 2014, Putin's anger at the ousting of Yanukovich boiled over, and he invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Two years later, in 2016, at the Republican National Convention that choose Donald Trump to be their US presidential candidate Paul Manafort, Trump's then campaign chair and chief strategist, sought to overturn then US President Obama's support for the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas, and Ukraine's regaining of Crimea.

Diana Denman (left), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing  sanctions [introduced by President Obama] against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military." (cf. Josh Rogin)

As then reported by at the 2016 Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post :

This "behind the scenes" effort was orchestrated by none other than Paul Manafort, who is now languishing in a US prison.

Fast forward to today and we have the 'thread of the Revolution of Dignity of Maidan' once again beginning to take centre-stage in the upcoming US presidential election of 2020.

 As now revealed in the upcoming release of the book, "The Room Where It Happened",  by Trump's former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, Trump not only tried to 'shake down Ukraine's President Zelensky for 'dirt' on Joe Biden, his opponent in the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections, but also sought the help of Chinese President Xi Jinping to win his re-election.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"President Donald Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton writes in his upcoming memoir that Trump sought Chinese President Xi Jinping's help in winning re-election during a closed-door meeting in June 2019, according to a report in the New York Times on Wednesday.

Trump reportedly asked the Chinese leader during trade negotiations at a summit in Osaka, Japan to buy more agricultural products in order to help him win farm states in the November general election." (Aljazeera : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 18 June 2020 (Brian Williams)

Brian Williams also reveals that,

"... Bolton also writes about House Democrats efforts to impeach the president for abuse of power for holding up security aid [to Ukraine] while pressuring [Zelensky] Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into the Biden's .." (ibid MSNBC video above)

The revelations in Bolton's book, exposing as it does the 'shakedown' of Zelensky by Trump during that fateful telephone conversation between them in July of last year, is now causing Trump's re-election strategy to have severe headaches.

CNBC : 25 September 2019

It is therefore no coincidence that, having had a copy of John Bolton's book for vetting purposes before its release, without warning his generals NOR the German Government, Trump suddenly announced the pullout of 10000 US troops from Germany.

As reported by the New York Times (Associated Press),

"President Donald Trump said Monday he is ordering a major reduction in U.S. troop strength in Germany, a move widely criticized by members of his own party as a gift to Russia and a threat to U.S. national security." (New York Times : 16 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW : Youtube 6 June 2020

The response of the Pentagon to Trump's 'gift to Putin' was to,

"The United States plans to give Ukraine $250 million through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for training and equipment to strengthen the country’s ability defend itself against Russia, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

The funds for fiscal 2020 are being sent to deter “Russian aggression,” the Pentagon said in a statement." (Mike Stone : Reuters : 11 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The U.S. State Department has cleared a potential sale to Ukraine of 16 Mark VI patrol boats and other gear worth $600 million, it was announced Wednesday.
...
Along with the modern and fast patrol boats, the sale includes various weapons, sensors and communications gear to deter Russia from muscling Ukraine in the contested Kerch Strait and key ports along the Azov Sea." ( Joe Gould  :  Defense News : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

If these developments are not enough to send Putin into an apoplectic rage, then the current fall in the price of oil should.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Oil prices fell around 1% on Thursday as a spike in new coronavirus cases in China and the United States renewed fears that a recovery in fuel demand could stall, even as lockdowns ease." (UNIAN : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

To protect himself against the corona-virus; Putin may have erected a 'disinfection tunnel' through which all his visitors have to pass before meeting with him but he cannot protect himself and his 'siloviki' from falling oil prices.

As reported by The Economic Times,

"Visitors meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at his country residence must first pass through a walk-through device that sprays them with disinfectant, to protect him from the coronavirus, officials said." (The Economic Times : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time as the price of oil is falling, RFE/RL reports that,

"The German government has "noted with regret" a U.S. proposal to expand sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
"New sanctions would constitute a serious interference in European energy security and EU sovereignty," a statement by the Foreign Ministry said on June 14." RFE/RL : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

The German economy, under the corona-virus lock-down in so many countries that it exports to, is beginning to seriously tremble. (cf also: Svar Nanan-Sen : Express: 7 June 2020)

For Zelensky, US military aid and the falling price of oil should give him some comfort.

But this comfort should not be taken for granted.

Like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

Zelensky should be constantly aware of this incontrovertible political fact.

(to be continued)


STOP PRESS!!!

"Despite pandemics, economic stagnation, and multiple domestic and foreign crises, Russia continues its war against Ukraine and even fabricates new threats.  Since it has become clear that the Minsk process, the process based on agreements there in 2015 is not going anywhere, Russia is raising the ante.  Because it cannot induce or compel Ukraine politically to sign its own death warrant and convert itself into a confederacy where Russian agents from the Donbass would have veto power over Kyiv's government, Moscow has alighted upon a new tactic.  As it has done in Georgia, it is now issuing hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to residents of the Donbass in preparation for the formal incorporation of the territory into the Russian state." (Real Clear Defense : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

So wrote Stephen Blank (right) in an article that fully exposes the intention of Putin to dismember Ukraine and incorporate the Donbas (and where next??) into Russia, as was done with Crimea.

Even more significantly, Stephen Blank reveals that,

"Therefore, it is no surprise that Ukrainian sources report that the Crimea situation is developing towards the capture of Ukraine territories that give access to water from the Dnieper River. Russia has increased the military contingent in and around Crimea to about a reported 80,000 troops and concentrated its engineering units in the north of the Crimea."
Putin has not shifted his gaze from conquering a land-bridge between Russia and Ukraine.

Is the invasion of Mariupol next on Putin's war agenda?


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