Are the Minsk II protocols heading for the political dustbin?

As reported by UNIAN,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 15.
...
"The focus of the discussion was on the implementation of the Minsk agreements on the peaceful resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN: 15 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Zelensky's Deputy Prime Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov
(right), is of the opinion that,

" .... the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

This seems to support Putin, who is now arguing that,

"Ukraine's counterproductive attempts to distort the content of the Minsk agreements." In addition, the press service said that the interlocutors also agreed on the "lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements." (idbid UNIAN) (my emphasis)


Interestingly, Angela Merkel has not publicly divulged either the truth or falsity on this aggreement between herself and Putin that there is a 'lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements'
 

Maybe the current diplomatic pronouncements of German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (left) gives us a clue as to whether Merkel, like Putin, is rather fed up with the constraints that the Minsk II protocols is putting on German-Russian economic relations.

According to Maas,

"...... there is "minimal consensus" within the European Union on the policy vis-à-vis Russia; it includes, among other things, the regular extension of sanctions .."


"I believe that we need more. Therefore, we want to prepare for the time when we could again talk more intensively about strategic relations with Russia. I think this requires preparations. Therefore, this is a topic that we will deal with as part of our presidency of the Council of the EU," [Maas] said. (UNIAN : 14 July 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words Germany, who now not only holds the office of the President of the Council of the EU for 6 months, but also the strategic office the President of the European Commission, now has the ability to steer the EU towards the ending of EU sanctions against Putin for his illegal occupation, and annexation, of Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

The current Corona virus pandemic, and its devastating effect on the economies of all the countries of the EU, is now also emerging as a raison d'être for revisiting the "regular extensions" of EU economic sanctions against Putin.   

the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/minsk-agreements-merkel-holds-phone-conversation-with-putin-11076293.html

This is best illustrated by French President Macron (right) claiming that,

"... the Brussels project is at stake when his colleagues discuss the next long-term budget and coronavirus recovery fund.
...
Ahead of the European Council summit in Brussels, Mr Macron said: “It’s an ambitious moment for Europe, we are living a crisis without precedents in the health, social and economic areas, which requires more solidarity and ambition. France and Germany have come up with an agreement. It was the base of the Commission’s proposal for the reactivation plan." (Joe Barnes : Express : 17 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Express : 17 July 2020

Which brings us to Nord Stream 2.

This economic lifeline of Putin has been fervently pushed by both Putin and Merkel as a purely economic relationship, with Merkel refusing to acknowledge that Nord Stream 2 is, in fact, an economic and political strategy of Putin to cripple the economy of Ukraine.

Nearing the completion of this economic and political pipeline of Putin and Merkel the US, however, is throwing a 'spanner in the works'.

As reported by UNIAN,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (left) says the U.S. Department of State is preparing to impose sanctions against companies investing in the Nord Stream 2 energy project.
...
 "The Department of State is issuing updated public guidance for section 232 of CAATSA, the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, in order to expand implementation of the act. 
...
 "This action puts investments or other activities that are related to these Russian energy export pipelines at risk of U.S. sanctions. It's a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting Russia's malign influence projects will not be tolerated. Get out now, or risk the consequences," he said. (UNIAN : 15 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin cannot rely on his Manchurian Candidate, Donald Trump, to try and stymie the implementation of Pompeo's expanded sanctions against "companies aiding and abetting Russia's malign influence projects ...".

Which makes it even more urgent for Merkel to advance the ending of  the EU sanctions against Putin and his siloviki, that was brought about by Putin's illegal occupation of Crimea and his ongoing war with Uraine.

It is therefore no wonder that Merkel is rather 'coy' in making public whether or not she recently agreed with Putin "that there is a lack of alternatives to the Minsk protocols".

That Zelensky, through his mouthpiece, the Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, also believes that,

"... the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed",

fits in neatly with the upcoming Normandy Format Meeting strategy of Putin and Merkel.

Yet yesterday, before Ukraine's parliament, Zelensky stated that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine must have all Russia-occupied territories back.
.....
"Yes. We lost part of the territory. We lost our people. And, unfortunately, we cannot bring back the dead. But we must return all our territories. Restore faith in truth and justice. So that what our heroes died for never turns out to be useless," Zelensky said." (UNIAN : 16 July 2020) (my emphasis)

But the critical question that Zelensky needs to answer is :-

"Will the Minsk II proposals be rejected for a Putin 'face-saving' formula that will maintain Putin's political hold over the occupied Donbas and Crimea?"

(to be continued)

Is TV Zelensky about to fall off his political tightrope act?

In my last blog entry (26 June 2020) I wrote that,

"A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea." (blog entry)

We now learn, as Dylan Malyasov (right) reports, that,

"Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar (left) said that Ukraine needs to be mentally prepared for the fact that Russia will not stop using its armed forces for political and economic objectives.
...
“A significant number of military experts and analysts share the opinion about the possibility of a military offensive. NATO also understands how real it is to use Russia’s military potential against Ukraine, and its activation is possible in the near future."
...
 Some experts said that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south. This is stated by American and Ukrainian experts, as well as leaders of neighboring countries warn the Ukrainian authorities about such a scenario" (Defence Blog : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin dangerously ramps up his preparedness for a new attack on Ukraine, Laura Sanicola (right) reports that,

"Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases would hurt demand while supply could rise with a potential resurgence of Libyan oil production, which has slowed to a trickle since the start of the year." (Reuters : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"Libya is trying to resume exports, which have been almost entirely blocked since January due to civil war. The state’s oil company hopes talks will end a blockade by eastern-based forces.

“If we do finally see a resumption in Libyan output, this would make the job of OPEC+ a little bit more difficult,” said Dutch bank ING. " (ibid Laura Sanicola)

This uncertainty about the price of oil only serves to increase the determination of Putin to "blitzkrieg-like" strike at Ukraine. 

Unperturbed by the growing dangerous mind-set of Putin to possibly invade the south of Ukraine, Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert report that,

"The European Commission is preparing measures to protect the European Union as it faces threatened U.S. sanctions, which could break international law, on a link to carry gas directly from Russia to Germany, the EU’s foreign policy chief, [Joseph Borrel (right)], said." (Reuters : 29 June 2020) (my emphasis) 

Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert further report that,

"The U.S. sanctions threat has prompted the German parliament’s economic committee to hold a hearing on July 1 and German business lobbies have called for rescue funds for companies affected.
Timm Kehler, head of gas lobby Zukunft Erdgas, in a statement to the committee published before the event, said such a precedent of “extra-territorial sanctions” must be avoided." (ibid Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert) (my emphasis)

German business, it would seem, is hell-bent on running after Putin's roubles, even if it means filling Putin's coffers that are been depleted as the price of oil continues to decline and the corona virus continues its inexorable and devastating march across Russia.     

It would seem that German politicians and businessmen have rather conveniently forgotten the post WW1 "Treaty of Rapallo (1922)" when Germany and Russia agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". .(Wikipedia), not to mention the Hitler-Stalin pact during WW2.

That Putin has a growing dangerous mindset is best exemplified by the current furore in the US concerning Putin's paying of Taliban supporters to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan.

As reported by Geoff Earle,

"In another brazen attack on the U.S., a Russian military intelligence unit has secretly paid bounties to Taliban-linked fighters to kill U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, according to a bombshell New York Times report.

The report represents a deadly escalation in Moscow's repeated efforts to undermine U.S. policy, and came as the administration was seeking to find ways to extract itself from the decades-long war by making peace with the Taliban." (Daily Mail : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC [1 : 30 June 2020] [2 : 30 June 2020] [3 : 30 June 2020]

Zelensky should pay particular attention to this 'deadly escalation of Putin's efforts to undermine U.S. policy' when viewed against

"[s]ome experts [saying] that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south." (ibid Dylan Malyasov)

 Recall an interview by Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth (left) with Zelensky in March of this year, where he stated that,

"Interviewer: What’s the difference between playing a
 president on screen and being one in real life?

Zelensky:   “It’s very similar,” he says, his compact frame engulfed by a green leather armchair in his opulent presidential office ..... [“Previous inhabitants felt very at home in these surroundings, I guess,” he says; they make him feel “horribly uncomfortable”. The most recent renovations were done by president Viktor Yanukovych, whose obscene corruption and cosying up to Russia prompted the 2014 Maidan revolution.]

 “It’s true there are more problems. They are catastrophic. They appear, I’m sorry to say, like pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.” 

The 42-year-old speaks in his native Russian, his expressive face switching from boyish amusement to tortured concern in a flash." (The Guardian : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Just over a year ago (April 2019) Zelensky scored a landslide victory (more than 73%) against Petro Poroshenko.

A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology reveals that his approval rating has slid to 38%, whilst those dissatisfied with his work has risen to 45%. (UNIAN : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Is Zelensky about to fall off the dangerous political tightrope he now tries to negotiate that he thought would be as easy to romp along as when he was 'play-acting' a president on TV?

(to be continued)