In my last blog entry (26 June 2020) I wrote that,
"A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.
And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea." (blog entry)
We now learn, as Dylan Malyasov (right) reports, that,
"Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar (left) said that Ukraine needs to be mentally prepared for the fact that Russia will not stop using its armed forces for political and economic objectives.
...
“A significant number of military experts and analysts share the opinion about the possibility of a military offensive. NATO also understands how real it is to use Russia’s military potential against Ukraine, and its activation is possible in the near future."
...
Some experts said that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south. This is stated by American and Ukrainian experts, as well as leaders of neighboring countries warn the Ukrainian authorities about such a scenario" (Defence Blog : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)
And as Putin dangerously ramps up his preparedness for a new attack on Ukraine, Laura Sanicola (right) reports that,
"Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases would hurt demand while supply could rise with a potential resurgence of Libyan oil production, which has slowed to a trickle since the start of the year." (Reuters : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)
Furthermore,
"Libya is trying to resume exports, which have been almost entirely blocked since January due to civil war. The state’s oil company hopes talks will end a blockade by eastern-based forces.
“If we do finally see a resumption in Libyan output, this would make the job of OPEC+ a little bit more difficult,” said Dutch bank ING. " (ibid Laura Sanicola)
This uncertainty about the price of oil only serves to increase the determination of Putin to "blitzkrieg-like" strike at Ukraine.
Unperturbed by the growing dangerous mind-set of Putin to possibly invade the south of Ukraine, Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert report that,
"The European Commission is preparing measures to protect the European Union as it faces threatened U.S. sanctions, which could break international law, on a link to carry gas directly from Russia to Germany, the EU’s foreign policy chief, [Joseph Borrel (right)], said." (Reuters : 29 June 2020) (my emphasis)
Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert further report that,
"The U.S. sanctions threat has prompted the German parliament’s economic committee to hold a hearing on July 1 and German business lobbies have called for rescue funds for companies affected.
Timm Kehler, head of gas lobby Zukunft Erdgas, in a statement to the committee published before the event, said such a precedent of “extra-territorial sanctions” must be avoided." (ibid Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert) (my emphasis)
German business, it would seem, is hell-bent on running after Putin's roubles, even if it means filling Putin's coffers that are been depleted as the price of oil continues to decline and the corona virus continues its inexorable and devastating march across Russia.
It would seem that German politicians and businessmen have rather conveniently forgotten the post WW1 "Treaty of Rapallo (1922)" when Germany and Russia agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". .(Wikipedia), not to mention the Hitler-Stalin pact during WW2.
That Putin has a growing dangerous mindset is best exemplified by the current furore in the US concerning Putin's paying of Taliban supporters to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan.
As reported by Geoff Earle,
"In another brazen attack on the U.S., a Russian military intelligence unit has secretly paid bounties to Taliban-linked fighters to kill U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, according to a bombshell New York Times report.
The report represents a deadly escalation in Moscow's repeated efforts to undermine U.S. policy, and came as the administration was seeking to find ways to extract itself from the decades-long war by making peace with the Taliban." (Daily Mail : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)
Zelensky should pay particular attention to this 'deadly escalation of Putin's efforts to undermine U.S. policy' when viewed against
"[s]ome experts [saying] that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south." (ibid Dylan Malyasov)
Recall an interview by Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth (left) with Zelensky in March of this year, where he stated that,
"Interviewer: What’s the difference between playing a
president on screen and being one in real life?
Zelensky: “It’s very similar,” he says, his compact frame engulfed by a green leather armchair in his opulent presidential office ..... [“Previous inhabitants felt very at home in these surroundings, I guess,” he says; they make him feel “horribly uncomfortable”. The most recent renovations were done by president Viktor Yanukovych, whose obscene corruption and cosying up to Russia prompted the 2014 Maidan revolution.]
“It’s true there are more problems. They are catastrophic. They appear, I’m sorry to say, like pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.”
The 42-year-old speaks in his native Russian, his expressive face switching from boyish amusement to tortured concern in a flash." (The Guardian : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)
Just over a year ago (April 2019) Zelensky scored a landslide victory (more than 73%) against Petro Poroshenko.
A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology reveals that his approval rating has slid to 38%, whilst those dissatisfied with his work has risen to 45%. (UNIAN : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)
Is Zelensky about to fall off the dangerous political tightrope he now tries to negotiate that he thought would be as easy to romp along as when he was 'play-acting' a president on TV?
(to be continued)
"A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.
And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea." (blog entry)
We now learn, as Dylan Malyasov (right) reports, that,
"Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar (left) said that Ukraine needs to be mentally prepared for the fact that Russia will not stop using its armed forces for political and economic objectives....
“A significant number of military experts and analysts share the opinion about the possibility of a military offensive. NATO also understands how real it is to use Russia’s military potential against Ukraine, and its activation is possible in the near future."
...
Some experts said that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south. This is stated by American and Ukrainian experts, as well as leaders of neighboring countries warn the Ukrainian authorities about such a scenario" (Defence Blog : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)
And as Putin dangerously ramps up his preparedness for a new attack on Ukraine, Laura Sanicola (right) reports that,"Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases would hurt demand while supply could rise with a potential resurgence of Libyan oil production, which has slowed to a trickle since the start of the year." (Reuters : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)
Furthermore,
"Libya is trying to resume exports, which have been almost entirely blocked since January due to civil war. The state’s oil company hopes talks will end a blockade by eastern-based forces.
“If we do finally see a resumption in Libyan output, this would make the job of OPEC+ a little bit more difficult,” said Dutch bank ING. " (ibid Laura Sanicola)
This uncertainty about the price of oil only serves to increase the determination of Putin to "blitzkrieg-like" strike at Ukraine.
Unperturbed by the growing dangerous mind-set of Putin to possibly invade the south of Ukraine, Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert report that,
"The European Commission is preparing measures to protect the European Union as it faces threatened U.S. sanctions, which could break international law, on a link to carry gas directly from Russia to Germany, the EU’s foreign policy chief, [Joseph Borrel (right)], said." (Reuters : 29 June 2020) (my emphasis) Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert further report that,
"The U.S. sanctions threat has prompted the German parliament’s economic committee to hold a hearing on July 1 and German business lobbies have called for rescue funds for companies affected.
Timm Kehler, head of gas lobby Zukunft Erdgas, in a statement to the committee published before the event, said such a precedent of “extra-territorial sanctions” must be avoided." (ibid Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert) (my emphasis)
German business, it would seem, is hell-bent on running after Putin's roubles, even if it means filling Putin's coffers that are been depleted as the price of oil continues to decline and the corona virus continues its inexorable and devastating march across Russia. It would seem that German politicians and businessmen have rather conveniently forgotten the post WW1 "Treaty of Rapallo (1922)" when Germany and Russia agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". .(Wikipedia), not to mention the Hitler-Stalin pact during WW2.
That Putin has a growing dangerous mindset is best exemplified by the current furore in the US concerning Putin's paying of Taliban supporters to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan.
As reported by Geoff Earle,
"In another brazen attack on the U.S., a Russian military intelligence unit has secretly paid bounties to Taliban-linked fighters to kill U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, according to a bombshell New York Times report.
The report represents a deadly escalation in Moscow's repeated efforts to undermine U.S. policy, and came as the administration was seeking to find ways to extract itself from the decades-long war by making peace with the Taliban." (Daily Mail : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)
MSNBC [1 : 30 June 2020] [2 : 30 June 2020] [3 : 30 June 2020]
Zelensky should pay particular attention to this 'deadly escalation of Putin's efforts to undermine U.S. policy' when viewed against
"[s]ome experts [saying] that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south." (ibid Dylan Malyasov)
Recall an interview by Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth (left) with Zelensky in March of this year, where he stated that, "Interviewer: What’s the difference between playing a
president on screen and being one in real life?
Zelensky: “It’s very similar,” he says, his compact frame engulfed by a green leather armchair in his opulent presidential office ..... [“Previous inhabitants felt very at home in these surroundings, I guess,” he says; they make him feel “horribly uncomfortable”. The most recent renovations were done by president Viktor Yanukovych, whose obscene corruption and cosying up to Russia prompted the 2014 Maidan revolution.]
“It’s true there are more problems. They are catastrophic. They appear, I’m sorry to say, like pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.”
The 42-year-old speaks in his native Russian, his expressive face switching from boyish amusement to tortured concern in a flash." (The Guardian : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)
Just over a year ago (April 2019) Zelensky scored a landslide victory (more than 73%) against Petro Poroshenko.
A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology reveals that his approval rating has slid to 38%, whilst those dissatisfied with his work has risen to 45%. (UNIAN : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)
Is Zelensky about to fall off the dangerous political tightrope he now tries to negotiate that he thought would be as easy to romp along as when he was 'play-acting' a president on TV?
No comments:
Post a Comment