It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government.

The tumultuous nature of the year 2020 for politicians all around the world cannot be underestimated. 

The pandemic of Covid 19 has not only thrown the global economy into turmoil, it has also brought home to many lawmakers and politicians their human vulnerability to a virus that does not choose whom to infect.

This vulnerability has also publicly exposed the extent and degree to which many politicians and lawmakers are now desperately trying to cling to power.

It is therefore not surprising that in his last days in office Donald Trump, the outgoing president of the US, is now, in the words of Ari Melber,

" ..... but instead they [the Republicans] are focussed  ..... [on] ....  joining Trump's attempt to steal ...  [the US presidential] election [that Biden won] .... (MSNBC : 31 December 2020) (my emphasis)

 What is ironic is that in Ukraine we have a similar type of drama unfolding.

As reported by Deutsche Welle (DW),

"The head of Ukraine's Constitutional Court, Oleksandr Tupytsky (left), is being investigated for suspected bribery of a witness, prosecutors announced on Monday.

The Prosecutor General's office also asked President Volodymyr Zelensky to suspend Tupytsky for two months after he failed to show up for police questioning." (DW : 28 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Oleksandr Tupytsky, like Trump, is desperately trying to bend the laws of Ukraine to escape being tried for his alleged crimes.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The Constitutional Court has branded "illegitimate" a presidential decree suspending CCU chairman, Oleksandr Tupytsky.

"The decree, issued by President of Ukraine, is not based on the Constitution of Ukraine, and does not correspond to it. The powers of President of Ukraine are determined exclusively by the Basic Law of Ukraine," the commentary says.

At the same time, it is noted that the Constitution does not endow the President with the right to "suspend a judge of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine." Moreover, the Constitution has laid down no possibility for suspending a CCU judge whatsoever, the Constitutional Court stressed." (UNIAN : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky's office, however, is pushing back against this statement of  the Constitutional Court of Ukraine

"Any "statements" posted on the website of the Constitutional Court, on which the court made no decisions, are legally null and void, says the President's Office.
...
    "Neither the above, nor any other normative legal act of Ukraine provides for the possibility of posting on the CCU's official website a statement by CCU Secretariat's Legal Department, drafted by no one knows whom, with the content that implied misappropriation of CCU powers by its Legal Department," the statement notes." (UNIAN : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin and Merkel's continued attempts to link Putin's Russia and Merkel's Germany with the umbilical cord of the Nord Stream2 pipeline continues to have obstacles thrown in its path.

 As reported by Andrea Shalal,

"The outgoing Trump administration is readying a fresh round of congressionally mandated sanctions “in the very near future” that it believes could deal a fatal blow to the Russia-to-Germany project led by state gas company Gazprom , three officials said.

“We’ve been getting body blow on body blow to this, and now we’re in the process of driving a stake through the project heart,” said one of the officials, who spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity. (Reuters : 23 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Trump, however, tried to veto this defence policy but to no avail.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to override President Donald Trump's veto on a defense policy bill that would provide, among other things, financial aid to Ukraine and sanctions on companies involved in the construction of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline." (UNIAN : 29 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, on the horizon we have,

"Azerbaijan has started commercial natural gas supplies to Europe via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), the energy ministry said on Thursday, beginning its push into the lucrative energy market dominated by Russia.
...
TAP is a part of the $40 billion Southern Gas Corridor, stretching 3,500 km from Azerbaijan to Europe and drawing from Azerbaijan’s giant Shah Deniz II field in the Caspian Sea.

The project has the backing of the European Commission as part of efforts to curb Europe’s dependence on Russian energy" (Nailia Bagirova : Reuters : 31 December 2020) (my emphasis)

It is no wonder that,

"Russia is stepping up work on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline before the U.S. tightens sanctions against the controversial project designed to feed more natural gas into Germany ....

Among the next steps is resuming work in Denmark’s part of the Baltic Sea, where the bulk of the remaining sections of the 157 kilometer link will be located.

Based on the Danish permit, the operator must submit an updated schedule to the nation’s Energy Agency prior to carrying out the works. So far, the regulator hasn’t received the updated plan, the agency said."  (Vanessa Dezem, Daniel Flatley and Dina Khrennikova: World Oil : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

For Zelensky the question now is,

"Will plucky Denmark hold up the resuming of the pipeline laying works in Denmark's territorial waters until they receive an updated plan?"

It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government.

(to be continued)

TO ALL MY READERS 

A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS 2021

 

Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

The Houston Chronicle reports that,

 "Russia's state-controlled natural gas company Gazprom has moved to finish construction of the multibillion Baltic Sea pipeline with its own resources after a Swiss company doing the building work at sea opted out of the project a year ago under the threat of U.S. sanctions.

Gazprom had to send the Akademik Cherskiy on a long voyage from the port of Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast to the Baltics. The vessel has been moving between various Baltic ports since May as the Nord Stream 2 construction plans were thrown into uncertainty by the sanctions threat." (Houston Chronicle :  5 December 2020 ) (my emphasis)

As pointed out by Jonathan Tirone and Brian Parkin,

"The European Union’s largest infrastructure project was supposed to give one of Germany’s poorer regions a path to the modern economy. But geopolitics intervened, with U.S. Congress passing a law that sanctions German companies involved in the Russian gas link. That transatlantic wedge is now threatening to splinter, with potentially costly outcomes to businesses." (World Oil : 11 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Tirone and Parkin further pint out that,

"[Incoming US President] Biden has cautioned against the project in the past. At the Munich Security Conference in 2015, he said the U.S. needs to “ensure that no country — not Russia or any other nation — can use energy as weapon of coercion.” (ibid Tirone and Parkin) (my emphasis)

The increasing urgency on the part of Putin and Merkel to ensure that the Nord Stream2 pipeline is completed stems, in part, from BOTH of these politicians moving fast into the twilight of their political careers.

Putin because of ill-health (Cape Talk 20 November 2020), and Merkel because of retirement (William Nehra: Iamexpat:26 Nov 2020).

 

Putin's accelerating urgency to have Nord Stream2 finally commissioned and up-and-running may also be due to the fact that:-

• [The] U.S. Senate approved 2021 NDAA with military aid to Ukraine, [and] sanctions against Nord Stream 2 ..... The bill authorizes US$250 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, including US$75 million for lethal assistance. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
  
• The World Bank's Board of Executive Directors has approved a loan to Ukraine in the amount of US$300 million for the Second Additional Financing for COVID-19 Response under the Social Safety Nets Modernization Project. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
• [The] leaders of European Union member states have decided to extend the economic sanctions against Russia in the banking, financial and energy sectors for another six months. (UNIAN : 10 December 2020) (my emphasis) 

It is interesting to note that former President of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, who now leads the Ukrainian delegation in the Minsk Peace Talks, is now calling for a tougher stance against Putin by suggesting that "Kyiv may demand new sanctions against Russia — including restrictions related to the “international payment system [SWIFT],” (Kyiv Post: 6 December 2020) (my emphasis)

As also, as reported previously by UNIAN,

" ....  Kravchuk fundamentally demands that the Russian side, as a member of the TCG [Tri-lateral Contact Group], take on political responsibility and formally determine its position by the end of this year on the need to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in 2019.

    "Holding a new summit in the Normandy format by the end of this year, which would summarize the attempts to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in December 2019, as well as discussing plans for their further implementation is what the Ukrainian delegation proposes under the current circumstances," it said. (UNIAN :November 26 2020) (my emphasis)

Time is fast running out for Putin, as evidenced by,

"Russia’s legislature [proposing] a draft law that could provide Russian ex-presidents [read: Putin] immunity from criminal prosecution in their lifetimes, not merely while in office.." 

As now reported by The Moscow Times,

Russian Parliament

"Lawmakers in Russia’s lower house of parliament have voted to approve legislation that would give former presidents lifetime immunity from prosecution. " (Moscow Times : 9 December 2020) (my emphasis)

The speed with which this approval has occurred rather belies Dmitri Peskov's constant denial that Putin is, indeed, seriously ill. (cf: Express : 21 November 2020)

Zelensky may now feel that he is in a comfortable political position in relation to Putin.

Added to which, US President elect Joe Biden has appointed a pro-Ukraine Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. (right)

Putin, however, will not easily give up on his position regarding his demands for the Donbas nor, more significantly, ever relinquishing his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

Even with the political tide beginning to flow in his direction Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

(to be continued)