Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

The Houston Chronicle reports that,

 "Russia's state-controlled natural gas company Gazprom has moved to finish construction of the multibillion Baltic Sea pipeline with its own resources after a Swiss company doing the building work at sea opted out of the project a year ago under the threat of U.S. sanctions.

Gazprom had to send the Akademik Cherskiy on a long voyage from the port of Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast to the Baltics. The vessel has been moving between various Baltic ports since May as the Nord Stream 2 construction plans were thrown into uncertainty by the sanctions threat." (Houston Chronicle :  5 December 2020 ) (my emphasis)

As pointed out by Jonathan Tirone and Brian Parkin,

"The European Union’s largest infrastructure project was supposed to give one of Germany’s poorer regions a path to the modern economy. But geopolitics intervened, with U.S. Congress passing a law that sanctions German companies involved in the Russian gas link. That transatlantic wedge is now threatening to splinter, with potentially costly outcomes to businesses." (World Oil : 11 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Tirone and Parkin further pint out that,

"[Incoming US President] Biden has cautioned against the project in the past. At the Munich Security Conference in 2015, he said the U.S. needs to “ensure that no country — not Russia or any other nation — can use energy as weapon of coercion.” (ibid Tirone and Parkin) (my emphasis)

The increasing urgency on the part of Putin and Merkel to ensure that the Nord Stream2 pipeline is completed stems, in part, from BOTH of these politicians moving fast into the twilight of their political careers.

Putin because of ill-health (Cape Talk 20 November 2020), and Merkel because of retirement (William Nehra: Iamexpat:26 Nov 2020).

 

Putin's accelerating urgency to have Nord Stream2 finally commissioned and up-and-running may also be due to the fact that:-

• [The] U.S. Senate approved 2021 NDAA with military aid to Ukraine, [and] sanctions against Nord Stream 2 ..... The bill authorizes US$250 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, including US$75 million for lethal assistance. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
  
• The World Bank's Board of Executive Directors has approved a loan to Ukraine in the amount of US$300 million for the Second Additional Financing for COVID-19 Response under the Social Safety Nets Modernization Project. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
• [The] leaders of European Union member states have decided to extend the economic sanctions against Russia in the banking, financial and energy sectors for another six months. (UNIAN : 10 December 2020) (my emphasis) 

It is interesting to note that former President of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, who now leads the Ukrainian delegation in the Minsk Peace Talks, is now calling for a tougher stance against Putin by suggesting that "Kyiv may demand new sanctions against Russia — including restrictions related to the “international payment system [SWIFT],” (Kyiv Post: 6 December 2020) (my emphasis)

As also, as reported previously by UNIAN,

" ....  Kravchuk fundamentally demands that the Russian side, as a member of the TCG [Tri-lateral Contact Group], take on political responsibility and formally determine its position by the end of this year on the need to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in 2019.

    "Holding a new summit in the Normandy format by the end of this year, which would summarize the attempts to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in December 2019, as well as discussing plans for their further implementation is what the Ukrainian delegation proposes under the current circumstances," it said. (UNIAN :November 26 2020) (my emphasis)

Time is fast running out for Putin, as evidenced by,

"Russia’s legislature [proposing] a draft law that could provide Russian ex-presidents [read: Putin] immunity from criminal prosecution in their lifetimes, not merely while in office.." 

As now reported by The Moscow Times,

Russian Parliament

"Lawmakers in Russia’s lower house of parliament have voted to approve legislation that would give former presidents lifetime immunity from prosecution. " (Moscow Times : 9 December 2020) (my emphasis)

The speed with which this approval has occurred rather belies Dmitri Peskov's constant denial that Putin is, indeed, seriously ill. (cf: Express : 21 November 2020)

Zelensky may now feel that he is in a comfortable political position in relation to Putin.

Added to which, US President elect Joe Biden has appointed a pro-Ukraine Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. (right)

Putin, however, will not easily give up on his position regarding his demands for the Donbas nor, more significantly, ever relinquishing his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

Even with the political tide beginning to flow in his direction Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

(to be continued)