Zelensky's political skills being put to the test

Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have finally shown their hand by calling for inviting Putin to an EU leaders' Summit.

As reported by the Financial Times,

"Diplomats said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, wanted the EU to consider inviting the Russian president to a summit with EU leaders, and that the initiative was supported by French president Emmanuel Macron.

Ambassadors representing Berlin and Paris wrongfooted other EU capitals at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday by making the new proposals on the relationship with the Kremlin, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
........
A spokeswoman for the German government, asked whether Germany and France would push for an EU summit with Putin, said: “It is common practice for Germany and France to co-ordinate closely before EU summits and draw up proposals.” But she said she could not comment on the “content of internal decision-making processes”. (Sam Fleming, Valentina Pop, Mehreen Khan and Michael Peel in Brussels, Henry Foy in Moscow and Victor Mallet in Paris : Financial Times : 23 June 2021) (my emphasis) 

Interestingly, 

"The Franco-German initiative came shortly after Moscow said it had fired warning shots including bombs at a British warship in the Black Sea near Crimea." (ibid Financial Times) (my emphasis)         BBC News: 23 June 2021

Now recall that in my blog entry of  11 June I wrote that,

"Yet again does that infamous Treaty of Rapallo in 1922 between Germany and Russia's Lenin raise its ghostly head where, after WW1,

 

" Both governments [Lenin for Russia, and Germany's Chancellor Joseph Wirth] also agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". Secretly, both established elaborate military co-operation but publicly denied it. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to 2021 and, as reported by Ben Aris (left),

"And Merkel talked with Putin by phone in the same week, who debriefed her on his talks with Biden and waxed on the theme of unity in Europe against common foes, as it is currently the 80th anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. 

From all the EU leaders, Merkel is probably closest to Putin, as the two meet regularly. Moreover, German has ten times as many of its companies working in Russia and is Russia’s biggest European trade partner, so she also has both major commercial interests and some real leverage over the Russians. As bne IntelliNews recently reported, Russia is almost entirely reliant on imports of machine tools from Europe – predominantly German tools – which are crucial to Russia’s modernisation plans.

At the same time, Merkel is due to stand down as Chancellor this autumn and would like to see her role as moderator between Russia and the EU broadened into a more formal mechanism whereby the EU can speak with a single voice." (bne IntelliNews: 23 June 2021) (my emphasis)

Merkel's successor as head of Germany's CDU, Armin Laschet, is another "Merkel" when it comes to supporting Putin.              Deutchse Welle (DW) 18 June 2021

And why???

As Ben Aris further reports,

"The Russian-German Chamber of Commerce announced on June 23 that almost half of the 3,971 German companies that work in Russia plan to invest several billions of euros in the next 12 months, up from the 30% that said they planned to invest last year. And that investment has kept growing after German companies invested a record €3bn in 2019.  

The survey also found that the majority of German companies that work in Russia (92%) support the cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, 5% support prolongation of sanctions, and only 3% favour toughening the sanctions. Merkel has been under constant and long-term pressure from her business lobby to make peace with Russia, as it is simply too profitable a market to ignore." (ibid Ben Aris)  (my emphasis)

Zelensky, Poland, and the Baltic States have an uphill political struggle to stem the march of Merkel and Macron towards ridding the EU of its sanctions against Putin.

One should always be reminded that these sanctions were instituted because of Putin's illegal invasion, and annexation, of Ukraine's Crimea, as well as his ongoing war with Ukraine.

For Merkel, with only a few months to go before she vacates the position of Chancellor of Germany, bringing Putin back into the EU political fold is critical for her political legacy and for the German and Russian economies.

And as Merkel vacates her political prominence on the EU political stage, Macron is desperate to take over from her to bolster his chances of winning in next year's French presidential elections.

The next few months will severely test Zelensky's political skills.

(to be continued)

For Zelensky, now is NOT the time to try and bargain with Putin.

The much heralded meeting between US President Biden and Russia's Putin in Geneva has come and gone. After many years of Putin strutting around on the world stage with his threatening nuclear arsenal, Donald Trump, and Angela Merkel in his back-pocket, it has taken US President Biden to in no uncertain terms stand up to his blatant defiling of international law.

                                                              MSNBC : 17 June 2021

US President Biden has diplomatically thrown down the gauntlet to Putin, especially over Putin's tacit support for Russian cyber-criminals to attack the US, ostensibly purely for financial gain.

                                                                                        MSNBC: 16 June 2021

Following on from the Biden-Putin summit in Geneva, Sergiy Karazy and Margaryta Chornokondratenko report that,

"Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (right) said on Thursday

he welcomed U.S. President Joe Biden's tough messaging when he met President Vladimir Putin this week and said now was the time to make Russia withdraw from Ukraine.
....
"This summit demonstrated that America is back, and now it's time to make Russia pull back from Ukraine," Kuleba said in an interview, adding that Moscow has no power of veto over Ukraine's accession to NATO. (Reuters : 17 June 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky has,

" ... thanked the leaders of the G7 countries (the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, Italy, Germany, and Japan) for supporting Ukraine's independence and sovereignty.

They called on Russia to act in accordance with its international obligations, to withdraw troops and weapons from the eastern border of Ukraine and on the Crimean peninsula.

"We remain firmly of the view that Russia is a party to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, not a mediator," the G7 leaders said in a communique. (UNIAN : 14 June 2021) (my emphasis)

As also reported by UNIAN,

"U.S. financial institutions have been prohibited to buy Russian bonds issued after June 14, 2021.
...
"The following activities by a U.S. financial institution are prohibited as of June 14, 2021, except to the extent provided by law or unless licensed or otherwise authorized by the Office of Foreign Assets Control: 

• (1) participation in the primary market for ruble or non-ruble denominated bonds issued after June 14, 2021 by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation, or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation; and 
• (2) lending ruble or non-ruble denominated funds to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation, or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation," it said in its directive." (UNIAN : 14 June 2021) (my emphasis)
  

And if this were not enough to give Putin a headache, UNIAN also reports that,

"Ukraine will become a NATO member with the Membership Action Plan as an integral part of the process, leaders of the Alliance have confirmed at their summit.
... ... "We stand firm in our support for Ukraine’s right to decide its own future and foreign policy course free from outside interference.  ......  Ukraine should make full use of all instruments available under the NUC to reach its objective of implementing NATO principles and standards," NATO leaders stress. UNIAN : 14 June 2021) (my emphasis)

For Zelensky, his upcoming meeting with US President Biden in the White House must now seem like a dream come true. 

As announced by  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba,

"The date of the end of July is being discussed. The visit of the president of Ukraine to the United States. A full-fledged visit... This will be an official full-fledged visit, which envisages not only the meeting with President Biden, but also many other events," he said, adding that a large delegation will go from Kyiv to Washington, and it will have a broad agenda." (UNIAN : 12  June 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky now has the full support of the President of the US, (some?) G7 countries, and NATO, behind his political sails.

Now is NOT the time to try and bargain with Putin.

(to be continued)

Zelensky and Biden's upcoming 2021 meeting at the White House

The 2021 G7 Summit in Cornwall, UK, was set of to a promising start by UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. The core participating nations include Japan, Italy, Germany, France, Canada, the US, the UK, and the EU.

 

The missing face at this exclusive summit is, of course, that of Putin. Putin
was kicked out of this annual Summit because after his invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea, together with his ongoing war with Ukraine, in 2014.

 

Putin will, however, be meeting US President Biden in Geneva where, Biden assures us that he will be raising the issue of Putin's illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea, together with Putin's ongoing war with Ukraine.

As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday set a tough tone for his upcoming summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, accusing Washington of trying to contain Russia and citing its response to the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol as a manifestation of the West's double standards.
...
He voiced hope that the meeting will help ease tensions with Washington. Russia-U.S. ties have sunk to post-Cold War lows over Moscow's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, accusations of Russian interference in elections in the U.S. and other Western nations, and cyberattacks that U.S. officials allege had Russian origins.

Putin reiterated that Russia rejects accusations of interfering in U.S. presidential elections, and he spoke critically of the U.S. response to the Capitol attack, which took place as Congress prepared to certify that Biden had defeated then-President Donald Trump in November." (ABC Eyewitness News: Saturday, June 5, 2021) (my emphasis)

This meeting between Biden and Putin, following Biden's G7 Summit Meeting, comes in the wake of Biden,

".... [waving] some sanctions on Nord Stream 2, all but ensuring its completion, in an attempt to mend strained relations with ally Germany, which continues to support the project. " (RFERL : 7 June 2021) (my emphasis)

RFERL further reports that,

"Germany is discussing ways to compensate Ukraine for the financial loss it will suffer from the completion of a controversial Russian natural-gas pipeline backed by Berlin, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told Congress." (ibid RFERL)  (my emphasis)

Really???? 

 

 Merkel has had YEARS, since the very start of Nord Stream2, to discuss this ..... "compensation" to Ukraine for Germany's economic Jackboots stomping all over Ukraine to ensure a central role for Germany's businessmen in Putin's Russia.  

 

Yet again does that infamous Treaty of Rapallo in 1922 between Germany and Russia's Lenin raise its ghostly head where, after WW1,

 

" Both governments [Lenin for Russia, and Germany's Chancellor Joseph Wirth] also agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". Secretly, both established elaborate military co-operation but publicly denied it. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 

 

Then, of course, we have the 1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact which was,

 

" .... an August 23, 1939, agreement between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany colloquially named after Soviet foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov and German foreign minister Joachim von Ribbentrop. The treaty renounced warfare between the two countries. In addition to stipulations of non-aggression, the treaty included a secret protocol dividing several eastern European countries between the parties. (Wikipedia) 

Have either, or both, of these two pacts/Treaties been expunged from German law???

 

I will not even mention Merkel's "political pin-up", that minor German Princess, Sophie Friederike Auguste von Anhalt-Zerbst-Dornburg, who later became Catherine the Great of Russia. 

 

So whose kidding whom in 2021??? 

 

Biden has politically buckled to Merkel over Nord Stream2 in the belief that whomsoever becomes the next Chancellor of Germany in their upcoming Chancellorship elections in September 2021 will "quid pro quo" him for letting Merkel and German businessmen off the Nord Stream2 hook.

So what, now, does Zelensky do even though he has a definite date for meeting with US President Biden in the White House, a meeting that Trump danagled before his eyes before abruptly removing it.

As I stated in my last blog entry,

As the EU slowly begins to emerge from the many lockdowns precipitated by the Covid pandemic, many EU countries are now concentrating on resuscitating their economies, especially Germany and France.

Merkel simply cannot bring herself to have Nord Stream2 fail.

Macron, the banker, is also eyeing Putin's Russia as a possible economic bonanza for France as the post-Covid economic wheels slowly begin to grind into action.

Will Merkel and Macron now increase their pressure on the EU to release Putin from those EU sanctions that have kept him in check from invading Ukraine?

Zelesnsky now faces the political test of confronting Merkel and Macron." (Blog Entry 24 May 2021)

If, last month, Zelensky faced a political test against Merkel and Macron, he now faces an even more important political test between himself and US President Bide.

(to be continued)