Zelensky's political skills being put to the test

Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have finally shown their hand by calling for inviting Putin to an EU leaders' Summit.

As reported by the Financial Times,

"Diplomats said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, wanted the EU to consider inviting the Russian president to a summit with EU leaders, and that the initiative was supported by French president Emmanuel Macron.

Ambassadors representing Berlin and Paris wrongfooted other EU capitals at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday by making the new proposals on the relationship with the Kremlin, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
........
A spokeswoman for the German government, asked whether Germany and France would push for an EU summit with Putin, said: “It is common practice for Germany and France to co-ordinate closely before EU summits and draw up proposals.” But she said she could not comment on the “content of internal decision-making processes”. (Sam Fleming, Valentina Pop, Mehreen Khan and Michael Peel in Brussels, Henry Foy in Moscow and Victor Mallet in Paris : Financial Times : 23 June 2021) (my emphasis) 

Interestingly, 

"The Franco-German initiative came shortly after Moscow said it had fired warning shots including bombs at a British warship in the Black Sea near Crimea." (ibid Financial Times) (my emphasis)         BBC News: 23 June 2021

Now recall that in my blog entry of  11 June I wrote that,

"Yet again does that infamous Treaty of Rapallo in 1922 between Germany and Russia's Lenin raise its ghostly head where, after WW1,

 

" Both governments [Lenin for Russia, and Germany's Chancellor Joseph Wirth] also agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". Secretly, both established elaborate military co-operation but publicly denied it. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to 2021 and, as reported by Ben Aris (left),

"And Merkel talked with Putin by phone in the same week, who debriefed her on his talks with Biden and waxed on the theme of unity in Europe against common foes, as it is currently the 80th anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. 

From all the EU leaders, Merkel is probably closest to Putin, as the two meet regularly. Moreover, German has ten times as many of its companies working in Russia and is Russia’s biggest European trade partner, so she also has both major commercial interests and some real leverage over the Russians. As bne IntelliNews recently reported, Russia is almost entirely reliant on imports of machine tools from Europe – predominantly German tools – which are crucial to Russia’s modernisation plans.

At the same time, Merkel is due to stand down as Chancellor this autumn and would like to see her role as moderator between Russia and the EU broadened into a more formal mechanism whereby the EU can speak with a single voice." (bne IntelliNews: 23 June 2021) (my emphasis)

Merkel's successor as head of Germany's CDU, Armin Laschet, is another "Merkel" when it comes to supporting Putin.              Deutchse Welle (DW) 18 June 2021

And why???

As Ben Aris further reports,

"The Russian-German Chamber of Commerce announced on June 23 that almost half of the 3,971 German companies that work in Russia plan to invest several billions of euros in the next 12 months, up from the 30% that said they planned to invest last year. And that investment has kept growing after German companies invested a record €3bn in 2019.  

The survey also found that the majority of German companies that work in Russia (92%) support the cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, 5% support prolongation of sanctions, and only 3% favour toughening the sanctions. Merkel has been under constant and long-term pressure from her business lobby to make peace with Russia, as it is simply too profitable a market to ignore." (ibid Ben Aris)  (my emphasis)

Zelensky, Poland, and the Baltic States have an uphill political struggle to stem the march of Merkel and Macron towards ridding the EU of its sanctions against Putin.

One should always be reminded that these sanctions were instituted because of Putin's illegal invasion, and annexation, of Ukraine's Crimea, as well as his ongoing war with Ukraine.

For Merkel, with only a few months to go before she vacates the position of Chancellor of Germany, bringing Putin back into the EU political fold is critical for her political legacy and for the German and Russian economies.

And as Merkel vacates her political prominence on the EU political stage, Macron is desperate to take over from her to bolster his chances of winning in next year's French presidential elections.

The next few months will severely test Zelensky's political skills.

(to be continued)