On this New Year's Eve of 2022 it is interesting that, as reported by Catherine Belton,
"When Vladimir Putin visited Minsk last week to discuss deepening cooperation, a sarcastic joke by his host, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, seemed to ring all too true.
“The two of us are co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet. We have only one dispute: Who is the bigger one? That’s all,” Lukashenko said."(Washington Post : 30 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Catherine Belton (right) further reports that,
"Putin “feels the loss of his friends,” said one Russian state official with close ties to diplomatic circles, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “Lukashenko is the only one he can pay a serious visit to. All the rest see him only when necessary.” (ibid Catherine Belton)
"Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare trip to Belarus last week, where he discussed closer military cooperation with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. ... Kyiv said the Kremlin was guilty of “desperate and persistent efforts to involve Belarus in its aggressive war against Ukraine”. " (Sky News AU : 28 December 2022 ) (my emphasis)
These desperate efforts by Putin to rope in Lukashenko's army to fight alongside his Russian soldiers in Ukraine are compounded by the fact that Putin is now having to resort to further bribing Russians to go and fight in Ukraine.
Russian authorities have announced that soldiers and state employees deployed to fight in Ukraine will be exempt from income tax, Moscow’s latest effort to encourage support for a military campaign against Kyiv that has suffered multiple setbacks and defeats. (MSN (AlJazeera) : 31 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Besides his 'tax exemption' bribe,
"Earlier this week, it was announced that Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine can have their sperm frozen for free in cryobanks.
News the Russian state will fund sperm freezing for its armed forces follows reports in October that demand for sperm freezing had increased after Putin announced a partial mobilisation to funnel more troops to support Moscow’s war." (ibid MSN (Aljazeera article) )
"Soldiers in Belarus are gathering in hundreds to fight alongside Ukraine against Putin's aggression. ... Ukrainian intelligence has suggested that Russia does not have the soldiers to launch an attack from Belarus. ... Ukrainska Pravda has reported that the head of the country's State Border Guard Service of Ukraine said on Wednesday that it could not launch a "repeated offensive" from Belarus." (Express : 30 December 2022) (my emphasis)
And on Russia's economic front, it is being reported that,
"Russia’s currency hit an eight-month low Thursday, adding to sharp declines in December as global oil prices fell, and Western sanctions targeted Russia’s energy sector.
The ruble hovered below 72 to the dollar, down 18% from the start of the month, and its weakest level since late April." (Clare Sebastian (left) : CNN Business : 29 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Clare Sebastian further reports that,
"But with the price of oil, Russia’s biggest export, down by about a third from its June peak, and an EU embargo on seaborne oil, and Western price cap mechanisms now in place, Russia’s oil export revenues are likely to fall. This means less foreign currency to prop up the ruble." (ibidClare Sebastian) (my emphasis)
"Ship insurers have announced the cancellation of war risk coverage across Russia, Ukraine and Belarus from January. The move comes after an exit of reinsurers from the region as they faced heavy losses due to the ongoing war. ...
The withdrawal of reinsurances will mean that ship owners or charterers would not be able to secure insurance in the new year which could lead to soaring prices of goods and some shipping firms may even decide to avoid the regions or to sail without insurance." (Firstpost : 30 December 2022) (my emphasis)
It is not only Putin's declining income from declining oils sales that is panicking his Kremlin economic advisors.
"European natural gas prices have fallen to levels last recorded before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February. Warmer weather helps the EU to preserve its reserves." (DW : 29 December 2022 : YouTube)
It was Winston Churchill who remarked during WW2 that , "In war, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies".
Yet if truth is concealed because of the fear of its consequences if it is revealed, an avalanche of lies ensues that, ultimately, buries truth itself.
Trying to reveal a truth that is often concealed under an ever increasing bodyguard of lies then becomes a task of unraveling the lies that try to conceal it.
And yet, in the face of overwhelming evidence that Putin lit the touchpaper of his current war with Ukraine we have Sergei Lavrov(right), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, recently declaring that,
"The United States is responsible for the Ukraine crisis as America seeks to reap the biggest benefits from it in economic and military-strategic terms, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, according to a statement released by the Russian Embassy in India." (Ani : The Print : 28 December 2022) (my emphasis)
"The enemy [Ukraine] is well aware of our proposals on the demilitarization and denazification of the [Kiev] regime’s controlled territories (i.e. UKRAINE), the elimination of threats to Russia’s security that come from there and it includes our new territories [DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions]," the minister said.
"There is a little left to do - to accept these proposals in an amicable way. Otherwise, the Russian Army will deal with this issue," Lavrov stated." (TASS :26 December 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: MSN (Associated Press) : 27 December 2022)
And whilst Lavrov is threatening Ukraine with the Russian army, Alia Shoaib reports that,
"The foreign minister (Lavrov) made the comments after Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday he was open to talks with Ukraine to end the war." (Yahoo News : 27 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor : CNN: 26 December 2022
But for Putin, such talks will have to totally reject the 10-point proposals (Reuters : 28 December 2022) of Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, as the basis of ANY peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
And as Putin was saying that he was, "open to talks with Ukraine to end the war", Hugo Bachega and Matt Murphy report that,
"Cities across Ukraine have been targeted by a wave of Russian missile strikes, in one of the largest bombardments since the war began. ... Blasts were also heard in the cities of Kharkiv, Odesa, Lviv and Zhytomyr. (BBC News : 29 December 2022) (my emphasis)
What, therefore, are Putin and Lavrov trying to conceal with their demand that peace talks should begin with President Zelensky fully accepting Putin's incorporation of Crimea, and the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, into Russia's territory?
One month ago (29 November 2022), in the words of Mohamed Vall,
"After setbacks for Russia's war in Ukraine .... the country's leaders say , "It cannot lose ..".
Putin : We have become stronger because we are together .. The truth is behind us ... and in truth there is strength ... which means victory ... Victory will be ours ..."
Mohamed Vall : AlJazeera : 29 November 2022 : YouTube
"Russia’s economy is beginning to “feel the pinch” after the G7 and other countries imposed a price cap on the country’s oil exports, an expert has said. ... In December the G7 countries, the European Union and Australia agreed to a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil because of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine." (Yahoo News (The Independent) : 28 December 2022) (my emphasis)
"European gas prices have dipped to a level last seen before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, after warmer weather across the continent eased concerns over shortages. ... Oil prices are significantly lower than they were before the start of Russia’s invasion, and only marginally above where they were at the start of 2022. Brent crude oil futures traded at $100 a barrel on 28 February, but were at $81.84 on Thursday." (The Guardian : 29 December 2022) (my emphasis)
The current uptick in Putin's bombing campaign against Ukraine's infrastructure gives the lie to his call for "peace talks".
The current call, by that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, for Ukraine to capitulate to Putin's demands for "peace talks", whilst at the same time threatening Ukraine with the full might of the Russian war machine, indicates that he is struggling with the Russian diplomatic playbook.
The desperation of Putin and Lavrov to conceal the "truth" behind their actions and their words may, indeed, point to growing rumblings of a coup against Putin. (cf Ciaran McGrath)
For Putin, the consequences to himself of the truth behind his current actions is simply too ghastly for him to contemplate.
As Putin continues to employ the German 'doodlebug' tactic used against London in 1945 by bombing the cities and infrastructure of Ukraine with Iranian UAV's in 2022, it should come as no surprise that the success of the Ukrainian army in pushing his Russian forces back towards the Ukraine/Russia border has now forced Putin to rush towards Minsk in the hope of dragging Lukashenko into his war with Ukraine.
Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell looks at the situation on the ground in Ukraine and says Vladimir Putin would "love Belarus more intimately involved in this war" (MSN (Sky News) : 19 December 2022) (my emphasis)
"Vladimir Putin says the situation in four areas of Ukraine which Moscow claims as Russian territory is "extremely difficult". ... Mr Putin also ordered the strengthening of Russia's borders and instructed special services to keep greater control of [Russian] society and ensure the safety of people in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine." (ABC (Aus) : 20 December 2022) (my emphasis)
"Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart extolled ever-closer ties on Monday as Putin visited Minsk for the first time since 2019, hardly mentioning the war raging in nearby Ukraine at a joint news conference.
Russian forces used Belarus as a launch pad for their abortive attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in February, and there has been Russian and Belarusian military activity there for months." (Reuters : 19 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Significantly, Putin's TV propagandists in Russia are now beginning to also focus their anger towards Poland, which shares a border with Belarus.
According to Alexey Mukhin (cf: video below),
"Where Poland is concerned, it's certainly preparing an army of occupation. This most likely pertains to W. Belarus and W. Ukraine. Poland basically does not conceal these intentions
Another of Putin's TV pundits then states that,
"We will burn European humanitarians with napalm, along with their weapons on the territory of Ukraine"
And whilst Putin's TV propagandists are calling for the burning of European humanitarians with napalm, Rohan Gupta reports that,
"The military-political leadership of Ukraine and the armed forces of its allies will now be considered "legitimate military targets", Security Council Deputy Head Dmitry Medvedev (Putin's glove-puppet) (left) wrote on the Telegram. According to him, during the conflict with Ukraine, issues of legal military purposes are interpreted differently. At the same time, there are "rules of conduct in times of war (jus in bello), which originate in sacred sources." (Express : 16 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Invoking "sacred sources" has recently become a central theme in Russian TV propaganda about Putin's war with Ukraine being fed to the Russian people.
In the words of one of Putin's top TV propagandists, Vladimir Solovyov,
"We live in the era of latter days. What's happening in Ukraine won't stay in Ukraine. A Holy War is underway. We're fighting for the right of mankind to live in its original state, as designed by the Creator ... " (Russia Media Monitor : YouTube : 18 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Notwithstanding either 'Putin's puppet', Dmitry Medvedev, or Solovyov invoking 'sacred sources' to justify Putin's war in Ukraine, Anna Nemtsova(left) reports that,
"The war in Ukraine has opened up a credibility gap, and for the first time many Russians no longer feel they can trust what their leader is saying to them.
Putin’s rock-solid system is crumbling.
Putin’s contortions are no longer convincing his domestic audience.
Both independent and Kremlin-controlled polls show that Putin has lost support for his war, with less than 30 percent of the country wanting it to continue.
Last week, the Kremlin published an image of Putin with a glass of champagne in his hand, and that immediately gave rise to many anecdotes about “drunk Putin.” (Daily Beast : 18 December 2022) (my emphasis)
More disturbing for Putin, as Katie Balevic now also reports,
"As the cracks in Russia's war on Ukraine deepen, Russian oligarchs sanctioned by the West are now saying Russian President Vladimir Putin tricked them into appearing to support his invasion of Ukraine, according to an extensive investigation published Saturday by The New York Times. ... But as the "special military operation" has dragged on, some Russian oligarchs have expressed doubt and frustration after they were heavily sanctioned by Western nations as a result of their allyship with Putin, the Times reported." (Business Insider : 18 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Putin's growing isolation is not only confined to his 'siloviki' and the Russian people beginning to distance themselves from him.
As reported earlier (8 December 2022) by Pyotr Kozlov(left),
"The war in Ukraine has not only led to Western sanctions on Russia and wide-spread condemnation from international bodies, but has even seen Moscow’s influence wane in its own backyard. ... In September, the Russian leader [Putin] found himself left waiting for meetings with his counterparts from Turkey, Azerbaijan, India and Kyrgyzstan at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Uzbekistan’s Samarkand. Russia was also chided for starting the Ukraine war by both India and China at the event." (Moscow Times : 8 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Will Putin's growing isolation from the people of Russia, and on the international stage, precipitate him into rash actions that will have catastrophic global consequences?
Is Putin gathering his forces in Belarus for an unpredictable Black Swan event?
"Vladimir Putin believes Russia is not to blame for the war in Ukraine, adding both countries are "sharing a tragedy".
During a televised address with senior military officials, the Russian president said he continued to see Ukraine as a "brotherly nation". ... During his address President Putin claimed the West had "brainwashed" post-Soviet republics, starting with Ukraine. ... The address came as Ukrainian leader Volodmyr Zelensky arrived in Washington for his first visit outside of Ukraine since Russia invaded 10 months ago." (BBC News : 21 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, as Putin was addressing his senior military officials, more Iranian drones have been pounding cities in Ukraine.
More ominously,
"Under the current law, Russians aged 18-27 can be called up for mandatory military service - Mr Shoigu is now proposing this covers citizens aged 21-30." (ibid Thomas Mackintosh)
"Russian
President Vladimir Putin has ditched his annual marathon news
conference following a series of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine — a tacit acknowledgment the Russian leader’s war has gone badly wrong. ... But
this year, with his troops on the back foot in Ukraine, it could be
impossible to avoid uncomfortable questions about the Russian military’s
blunders even at a highly choreographed event. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Monday Putin wouldn’t hold the news conference this month, without explaining why." (NZHerald : 13 December 2022) (my emphasis)
And as Putin ditched his annual marathon news conference, PBS (AP) reports that,
"Dozens
of countries and international organizations threw their weight and
more than 1 billion euros (dollars) in aid pledges behind an urgent new push Tuesday to keep Ukraine powered, fed, warm and moving amid the onset of winter. ... An international donor conference in Paris quickly racked up substantial promises of financial and in-kind support,a defiant response to sustained Russian aerial bombardments that have plunged millions of Ukrainian civilians into the deepening cold and dark by targeting critical infrastructure." (PBS News : 13 December 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: NBC : 13 December 2022)
"The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official. ... Once the plans are finalized, the Patriots are expected to ship quickly in the coming days and Ukrainians will be trained to use them at a US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, officials said. " (CNN : 13 December 2022) (my emphasis)
They further report that,
" Last month US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN that the US is “very focused” on providing air defense systems to Ukraine.
“We’re now very focused on air defense systems and not just us, many other countries,” Blinken told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour." (ibid Barbara Starr and Oren Liebermann) (my emphasis)
Could this urgent plan to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine be, in part, due to the fear that Putin is now so cornered that the use of a 'nuclear' strike is now viewed by himself as his only option to prevent the defeat of his army in Ukraine?
As Russian Commander, Alexander Khodakovsky (left), stated on Russian TV,
"We
realize that our resources, of course, have their limits. And the next
spiral of escalation can only be one ... NUCLEAR ... And we don't have the resources to defeat the NATO bloc with conventional means ... but we have Nuclear weapons for that ..." (video below:CNN : 13 December 2022)
"Russia's central bank just issued a warning about 'new economic shocks,' and it shows the new $60/barrel cap on oil is working
The price cap on Russian crude and EU's oil embargo present "new economic shocks," the Bank of Russia said.
They could "significantly reduce" Russia's economic activity in the coming months, per the bank.
Russia is mulling options to counter the price cap, including banning oil sales to some countries.
Despite the Kremlin's general skepticism over the West's myriad economic sanctions, analysts at the country's [Russia's] central bank foresee "new economic shocks," thanks to a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil and the European Union's ban of the country's crude." (MSN News : 13 December 2022) (my emphasis)
"Russia says the West's refusal to recognise "new territories" seized from Ukraine makes peace talks harder, after President Joe Biden indicated he would be ready to meet Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin said it was open to negotiations, but not on the West's demand to pull out of Ukraine." (BBC News : 2 December 2022) (my emphasis)
What is interesting to note here is thatis that Putin is also "demanding" that the West 'legally', andtherefore within International Law, recognizes his 'illegal' annexations of Ukrainian land, starting from :-
his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014,
followed by his 'illegal' invasion, and 'occupation', of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014,
and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk." (Blog entry 30 November 2022)
Since then there has been a flurry of recent reports about Putin's 'willingness' to negotiate an end to his war with Ukraine provided that, somehow, Putin is given the 'gift' of his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk.
"Vladimir Putin has said that an agreement “will have to be reached” to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Russian President suggested he is “ready” to negotiate with Kyiv, nine months after launching an invasion of the country. ... “Trust, of course, is almost at zero… but ultimately in the end, an agreement will have to be reached,” he said.
“I have said many times that we are ready for these agreements (read: Minsk Protocols) and we are open.”." (Yahoo News (Evening Standard) : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)
"Russia has claimed the war could “end tomorrow” if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky orders a retreat from territories within Putin’s recently-annexed four regions in the southeast.
...
In comments tantamount to blaming Ukraine for defending its own territory, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested the Ukrainian Armed Forces were preventing a ceasefire by continuing to liberate cities across the front line.
On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin labelled the annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson as a “significant result”, with Peskov subsequently suggesting the aims of the Russian army were to “protect” those within those regions." (Express : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)
The scramble in the Kremlin to present the international face of the call for "negotiations" on their terms to end Putin's war with Ukraine indicates that even Putin's generals are flailing miserably to prevent the Ukrainian army from pushing the Russian army back across the Ukraine/Russia border.
"Ukraine attacked occupied Melitopol in the country’s southeast on Saturday evening, the Russian-installed and exiled Ukrainian authorities of the strategically located city said. ... An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Oleksiy Arestovych, said Melitopol, a major industrial and transport centre occupied by Russia since March, was key to the defence of the south. ... "If Melitopol falls, the entire defence line all the way to Kherson collapses. Ukrainian forces gain a direct route to Crimea."(Reuters : 11 December 2022) (my emphasis)
And whilst Putin is being supplied with UAV's and missiles from the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jon-Un of North Korea (right), as reported by Mariya Knigh,
"Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov (left) on Sunday said Ukrainian forces will resume “active counteroffensive actions” when the ground freezes and “becomes firmer for easier passage of equipment”, at a press conference with his Swedish counterpart, Defense Minister Pal Jonson, in Odesa. ... The Defense Minister called Ukraine's plan "very simple.” “It is the liberation of all temporarily-occupied territories of Ukraine as they were in 1991, when Ukraine's borders were internationally recognized," he said." (CNN : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Added to which:-
as reported by VOA, "European Union foreign ministers are considering fresh sanctions against Russia and more money to help Ukraine's military at a meeting Monday, while the United States is pledging ongoing support for Ukraine amid Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure. The proposed EU package being discussed in Brussels would provide about $2.1 billion to fund arms deliveries for Ukraine." (VOA News : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis) ... AND ...
President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday affirmed US support for Ukraine as the Eastern European country battles Russia’s invasion and missile attacks.
The US has promised $38 billion in military aid and delivered $13 billion in direct aid to Ukraine already. When asked in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” how long American support can carry on, Yellen responded, “As long as it takes.”(Yahoo News (Bloomberg article) : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, as reported by Yahoo News (Reuters) the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky,
"In a flurry of diplomacy on Sunday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held talks with the leaders of the U.S., France and Turkey. ... It's rare for Ukraine's president to hold talks with all three leaders in just one day.
During his call with Biden, the U.S. leader promised to help boost Ukraine's air defense to protect the civilian population.
Zelenskiy said his call with French President Emmanuel Macron, earlier in the day, had lasted more than an hour.
The two leaders spoke about "defense, energy, economy, diplomacy."
While Zelenskiy's call with Turkey's President Erdogan focused on making sure Ukraine can export its grain.
In turn, Erdogan's office said the Turkish leader also had a call on Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Erdogan had called for a quick end to the conflict." (Yahoo News (Reuters) : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)
The current attempt of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' to revive the long dead Putin/Merkel/Hollande Minsk2 protocols of 2015 as a basis for negotiating and end to his war with Ukraine simply will not fly.
Perhaps a significant factor underscoring the impending failure of Putin to revive Minsk2 as a basis for negotiating the end of his war with Ukraine is, as reported by Shivam Patel and Krishna N. Das , that,
"Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left)and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not hold an annual in-person summit this year, an Indian government source said on Friday, after the two held discussions on the sidelines of an event in September.
Bloomberg News reported earlier in the day that the decision to cancel the summit was taken after veiled threats by Putin to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.(Reuters : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)
Slowly the reality of Ukraine pushing the Russian army out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, AND Crimea, is finally dawning upon Putin and his 'siloviki'.
Diplomatically, Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' simply have nowhere to go.
And as reported by Amy Landsey (left),
