Putin now clinging to the long-dead Minsk2 protocols.

 In my blog entry of 30 November 2022 I wrote that,

"Paul Kirby  reported yesterday (2 Dec) that,

"Russia says the West's refusal to recognise "new territories" seized from Ukraine makes peace talks harder, after President Joe Biden indicated he would be ready to meet Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin said it was open to negotiations, but not on the West's demand to pull out of Ukraine." (BBC News : 2 December 2022) (my emphasis)

 

What is interesting to note here is that is that Putin is also "demanding" that the West 'legally', and therefore within International Law, recognizes his 'illegal' annexations of Ukrainian land, starting from :-

• his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, 
• followed by his 'illegal' invasion, and 'occupation', of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014,
• and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk." (Blog entry 30 November 2022)
  

Josh Milton : Metro : 2 December 2022 

 

Since then there has been a flurry of recent reports about Putin's 'willingness' to negotiate an end to his war with Ukraine provided that, somehow, Putin is given the 'gift' of his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk.

 

 

As  reported by Daniel Keane (left),

"Vladimir Putin has said that an agreement “will have to be reached” to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The Russian President suggested he is “ready” to negotiate with Kyiv, nine months after launching an invasion of the country.
...
“Trust, of course, is almost at zero… but ultimately in the end, an agreement will have to be reached,” he said.

“I have said many times that we are ready for these agreements (read: Minsk Protocols) and we are open.”." (Yahoo News (Evening Standard) : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)

 

 

Indeed, as reported by Tom Watling,

"Russia has claimed the war could “end tomorrow” if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky orders a retreat from territories within Putin’s recently-annexed four regions in the southeast. 

...

In comments tantamount to blaming Ukraine for defending its own territory, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested the Ukrainian Armed Forces were preventing a ceasefire by continuing to liberate cities across the front line. 

 

On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin labelled the annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson as a “significant result”, with Peskov subsequently suggesting the aims of the Russian army were to “protect” those within those regions." (Express : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)

The scramble in the Kremlin to present the international face of the call for "negotiations" on their terms to end Putin's war with Ukraine indicates that even Putin's generals are flailing miserably to prevent the Ukrainian army from pushing the Russian army back across the Ukraine/Russia border.

 

As reported by Nick Starkov (left),

"Ukraine attacked occupied Melitopol in the country’s southeast on Saturday evening, the Russian-installed and exiled Ukrainian authorities of the strategically located city said.
...
An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Oleksiy Arestovych, said Melitopol, a major industrial and transport centre occupied by Russia since March, was key to the defence of the south.
...
"If Melitopol falls, the entire defence line all the way to Kherson collapses. Ukrainian forces gain a direct route to Crimea." (Reuters : 11 December 2022) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is being supplied with UAV's and missiles from the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jon-Un of North Korea (right), as reported by Mariya Knigh,

"Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov (left) on Sunday said Ukrainian forces will resume “active counteroffensive actions” when the ground freezes and “becomes firmer for easier passage of equipment”, at a press conference with his Swedish counterpart, Defense Minister Pal Jonson,
in Odesa.
...
The Defense Minister called Ukraine's plan "very simple.” “It is the liberation of all temporarily-occupied territories of Ukraine as they were in 1991, when Ukraine's borders were internationally recognized," he said." (CNN : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Added to which:-

• as reported by VOA, "European Union foreign ministers are considering fresh sanctions against Russia and more money to help Ukraine's military at a meeting Monday, while the United States is pledging ongoing support for Ukraine amid Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure. The proposed EU package being discussed in Brussels would provide about $2.1 billion to fund arms deliveries for Ukraine." (VOA News : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)  ... AND ...
  
• President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday affirmed US support for Ukraine as the Eastern European country battles Russia’s invasion and missile attacks.
  
  The US has promised $38 billion in military aid and delivered $13 billion in direct aid to Ukraine already. When asked in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” how long American support can carry on, Yellen responded, “As long as it takes.” (Yahoo News (Bloomberg article) :  12 December 2022) (my emphasis)
  

 CBS : 60 Minutes : 12 December 2022 : YouTube

 

Meanwhile, as reported by Yahoo News (Reuters) the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky,

"In a flurry of diplomacy on Sunday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held talks with the leaders of the U.S., France and Turkey.
...
It's rare for Ukraine's president to hold talks with all three leaders in just one day.

During his call with Biden, the U.S. leader promised to help boost Ukraine's air defense to protect the civilian population.

Zelenskiy said his call with French President Emmanuel Macron, earlier in the day, had lasted more than an hour.

The two leaders spoke about "defense, energy, economy, diplomacy."

While Zelenskiy's call with Turkey's President Erdogan focused on making sure Ukraine can export its grain.

In turn, Erdogan's office said the Turkish leader also had a call on Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Erdogan had called for a quick end to the conflict." (Yahoo News (Reuters) : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Yahoo News (Reuters) : 12 December 2022

 

The current attempt of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' to revive the long dead Putin/Merkel/Hollande Minsk2 protocols of 2015 as a basis for negotiating and end to his war with Ukraine simply will not fly.

 

Perhaps a significant factor underscoring the impending failure of Putin to revive Minsk2 as a basis for negotiating the end of his war with Ukraine is, as reported by  Shivam Patel and Krishna N. Das , that,

"Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not hold an annual in-person summit this year, an Indian government source said on Friday, after the two held discussions on the sidelines of an event in September.

Bloomberg News reported earlier in the day that the decision to cancel the summit was taken after veiled threats by Putin to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war. (Reuters : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)
 

Slowly the reality of Ukraine pushing the Russian army out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, AND Crimea, is finally dawning upon Putin and his 'siloviki'.

 

Diplomatically, Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' simply have nowhere to go.

 

(to be continued)