Is Putin tottering on the edge of the abyss of a "Black Swan" event?

 As was to be expected, German Chancellor Sholtz's visit to China, besides including a vast German business delegation, also included a joint 'peace' plan with Chinese president Xi Jinping to resolve Putin's war with Ukraine.

So what does this 'peace' plan envisage.

The Chinese Daily sets it out as follows :-

"Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday proposed four principles to prevent the Ukraine crisis from spiraling out of control and to restore peace at an early date.
...

• "First, we should prioritize the upholding of peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gains.
  
• Second, we should cool down the situation and not add fuel to the fire. 
• Third, we need to create conditions for the restoration of peace and refrain from further exacerbating tensions. 
• Fourth, we should reduce the negative impact on the world economy and refrain from undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains," Xi said." (China Daily : 16 April 2024) (my emphasis)

To whom does "refrain from seeking selfish gains." really refer?

Does it refer to Putin's illegal annexation of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, and his currently invaded territory of Ukraine? 

Or does it refer to Ukraine's President Zelensky's demand that Putin's forces be removed forthwith from ALL illegally occupied Ukrainian territory, INCLUDING Crimea. 

To whom does the "not add fuel to the fire" refer? 

Putin's relentless and indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine?

OR to the support being given to Ukraine by the US, the EU, Britain, and other western countries?

To whom does, "refrain from further exacerbating tensions."? Putin or Ukraine or Ukraine's allies?

The fourth Xi Jinping principle is really about the critical state of the economies of BOTH Germany and China, rather than about "peace in Ukraine".

Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Microsoft Start: 16 April 2024: CGTN News Video

 DW News : 16 Aprril 2024 : YouTube

 Which brings into sharp focus, as reported by  Michelle Shen and Melanie Zanona (left),

"House Speaker Mike Johnson (right) said Sunday he will move forward with a vote on additional Israel aid but did not go into specifics about his plans as he walks a knife’s edge with conservatives over the potential inclusion of Ukraine funding.
...
 “Congress should be clear: no action by Iran or Israel merits a vote on the Ukraine omnibus the Senate seeks,” GOP Rep. Warren Davidson wrote on social media.

The pressure campaign from Johnson’s right flank comes amid bipartisan calls — including from GOP Leader Mitch McConnell — to take up the Senate-passed foreign package that includes money for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, arguing that is the fastest way to get aid to Israel." (CNN : 14 Apil 2024) (my emphasis)

As Putin continues to accellerate his continued indiscriminate and ruthless bombing of the Ukrainian people and Ukraine's critical infrastructure, Zelensky is urging immediate help from western allies citing the recent immediate and successful  military assistance given to Israel to defend itself against the missiles and Shaheed drones that Iran unleashed against Israel.  

 As reported by AFP on News 24,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies on Monday to show the same "unity" toward Ukraine as Israel, which said it repelled an Iranian attack over the weekend with Western support.

Ukraine has in recent months grown increasingly frustrated at delays in Western aid, including air defences it says are urgently needed to repel deadly Russian attacks.

In a post on Telegram, Zelensky thanked allies who had responded to Ukraine's call for more air defences but said: "The intensity of Russian attacks requires greater unity." (AFP on News 24 : 16 April 2024) (my emphasis) 

(cf also: "Czech politicians say Ukraine should get same support as Israel after Iran strike" : Aneta Zachová : Euroactiv : 16 April 2024)

Metro : 16 April 2024

What lends even more urgency to Zelensky's call for immediate military aid is the fact that, as reported by Euronews,

"The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said attacks against Europe’s largest nuclear power plant have put the world “dangerously close to a nuclear accident”.

Without attributing blame, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said his agency has been able to confirm three attacks against the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant since 7 April." (Euronews :  16 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Chancellor Scholtz, having emboldened Xi Jinping regarding his sights on Taiwan, and having yet again drawn back from giving Ukraine the necessary critical missiles to defend itself against Putin's frantic and dangerous assault on Ukraine, is singing from the same 'pro Putin' hymn sheet as the many Republican members of Congress who are  currently witholding critical US support for Ukraine.

And Putin is now dangerously tottering on the precipice of falling into a "Black Swan Event" whose effects very few will be able to escape from.

UPDATE 1: 17 April 2024

Finally it is becoming glaringly and abundantly clear, as Barbara Moens, Jacopo Barigazzi and Nicholas Vinocur (left) report,

"Two conflicts will compete for the attention of EU leaders meeting for a summit this week. There is one — Ukraine — where they can make a difference, and another — Iran-Israel — where they can’t.

It seems paradoxical, then, that the Middle East — a theater of war where the U.S. is infinitely more influential than Europe — will probably consume more attention than Ukraine — an EU candidate country that is desperately pleading for more European assistance as the tide turns against it, and Russian forces pummel Kharkiv, its second city." (Politico : 17 April 2024) (my emphasis)

This should come as no surprise. 

As I wrote in the first entry of my blog on Tuesday 10 June 2014,

• "Angela Merkel, the scientist Chancellor of Germany, is coldly and dispassionately upholding the ghost of the Treaty of Rapallo, wringing her hands in anguish while Putin tramples over the rights of the Ukrainian people. Is it any wonder that Gerhard Schroeder, the Chancellor of Germany when that export deal was struck in 1992, fondly embraced Putin at his recent 70th birthday party bash?

• But what about the other members of the EU? Cyprus is like a cat on a hot tin roof, not knowing what it will do if all that stolen Russian money wings its way out of her banks.

• Can the young Matteo Renzi face up to the howling of Italian businessmen not to jeopardize their sucking on the teats of the corrupt Russian cow?" (blog entry 10 June 2014)

Is there anything new under the sun?

 

(to be continued)