Are we now heading for a Trump-Putin "Black Swan Event" over China?

In my blog entry of 28 March 2025 I wrote that,

"In the White House, discussions about a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, about Putin dragging his feet over any ceasefire by constantly moving the goalposts in favour of Russia, at the expense of Ukraine, can only be described as, "a dog's dinner" i.e. White House 'ceasefire' discussions that are "messy or bungled". 

 Since then, a mere two weeks ago, 'A Convicted Criminal And Rapist' (ACCAR), and President of the US, Donald Trump, unleashed a GLOBAL tariff war against the rest of the world that has caused international political and economic mayhem.

And in the background, overshadowed by the global economic mayhem that ACCAR Trump set in motion, Putin and Lavrov are jumping for joy as ACCAR Trump's chosen negotiators dealing with Putin's war against Ukraine demand Ukraine's FULL capitulation to Putin's demands.

As reported by  Benedict Smith (left), ACCAR Trump's United States Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg (right), has proposed that,

"Ukraine could be divided like Berlin after the Second World War, Donald Trump’s envoy to the war-torn nation has said.

Keith Kellogg suggested that Ukraine could be partitioned with a British

and French-controlled zone in the west and Russian forces stationed in the east as part of a peace deal to bring the war to an end.

...

The proposal would require Ukraine to cede control of its eastern territories, which are currently under Russian control." (Daily Telegraph: 11 April 2025) (my emphasis)

 

 LBC: 12 April 2025: YouTube

Let us recall that, on the initiative of the UK and France, and as reported by Deborah Haynes (right),

"Vladimir Putin will break any peace agreement with Ukraine that is not "defended" by an international coalition of forces, the British prime minister has said.

Sir Keir Starmer was talking on Thursday as he visited a UK base to meet a group of senior military officers from more than 30 nations tasked with turning a political desire to support Kyiv into an actionable plan to help protect the country from land, sea and air in the event of a ceasefire."(Sky News: 20 March 2025) (my emphasis)

 

DW News: 16 March 2025: YouTube

Yet we now also have Keith Kellogg warning that,

"Lt Gen Kellogg warned Britain and France that they could not count on Mr Trump’s support for their coalition, advising them to “plan for the worst case”. (ibid Benedict Smith)

This 'worst case' for Ukraine is now emerging.

As reported by Alisha Rahaman Sarkar (left),

"As part of Donald Trump’s sweeping new demands for US control over all of Ukraine’s mineral and energy assets, Washington has proposed that its International Development Finance Corporation should take control of a natural gas pipeline running from the town of Sudzha in western Russia to the Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod.

Senior economist Volodymyr Landa told The Guardian that Washington's bullying, “colonial-type” demands had little chance of being accepted by Kyiv." (The Independent: 13 April 2025) (my emphasis)

 Added to which,

"US envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg for talks aimed at finding a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine. The meeting took place at the city’s presidential library on Friday.

The Kremlin confirmed after the meeting that the focus was "aspects of a Ukrainian settlement." Russian media reported that the talks continued for more than four hours.

Witkoff, one of the key players in efforts to strengthen ties between Moscow and Washington, was spotted earlier today with Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's investment envoy. Dmitriev later concluded the meeting as "productive," the TASS state news agency reported." (India Today: 12 April 2025) (my emphasis)

 

CBS News: 12 April 2025: YouTube

And whilst ACCAR Trump's accolytes viz. Steve Witkoff (American billionaire real estate investor, and Trump's US Special Envoy to the Middle East), Keith Kellogg, and former Fox News presenter, (and now Trump's Secretary of Defence) Peter Hegseth, are scrambling to hand over the entire Ukraine territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Putin, it has emerged that,

"The Ukrainian military has captured two Chinese citizens who fought with the Russian army, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday.

The Chinese nationals were captured in the eastern Donetsk region and were being held by Ukraine’s security service, Zelenskyy said in a post on Telegram, without providing evidence. He added that intelligence indicated that there were “significantly more Chinese citizens in the units of the occupier than two.”. (Chantal Da Silva (left): NBC News: 8 April 2025) (my emphasis)

Kyiv Independent: 11 April 2025: YouTube

Furhermore, as reported by John T Psaropoulos (left),

"Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine are slowing down dramatically, two analyses have found, continuing a pattern from 2024 at a time when both nations are trying to project strength in the face of United States-mediated negotiations aimed at ending the war.
...
Russia’s diminishing returns have come even as it has greatly expanded the size of its forces from an estimated 150,000 soldiers who carried out its initial invasion in February to May 2022." (Al Jazeera: 10 April 2025) (my emphasis)

Significantly, Psaropoulos goes on to report that,

"Despite this, almost all of the Ukrainian territory Russia occupies, about a fifth of the country, was the result of the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and its initial, full-scale invasion in 2022." (ibid John T Psaropoulos)

How ACCAR Trump will deal with Chinese soldiers fighting for Putin in Ukraine, and his current tariff war with China, now remains to be seen.

Not only have Putin and Trump boxed themselves in, they have now also painted themselves together into a political corner from which there is practically no escape.

Are we now heading for a Trump-Putin "Black Swan Event" over China? 

UPDATE: 14 April 2025: 07.05 GMT 

It has just been reported by Patrick Jackson (left) that,

"A Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy, which killed 34 people - including two children - and injured 117 others, has been strongly condemned by Kyiv's Western allies.
…
Asked about the attack, the US president said it was "terrible" and that he had been "told they made a mistake", but did not elaborate.
…
Merz, who is expected to take over as Germany's new chancellor next month, told German public broadcaster ARD that the attack on Sumy constituted a "serious war crime".

"It was a perfidious act.. and it is a serious war crime, deliberate and intended," the conservative politician said." (BBC News: 14 April 2025) (my emphasis) 

That ACCAR Trump believes Putin that this heinous crime that he committed was, "a mistake", and Trump actually believes him, simply beggars belief.

                                                                                

        

 

(to be continued)