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Thursday, 20 November 2025

Putin's power now hangs by a slender thread.

The late Harold Wison is supposed to have famously said sometime in the 1960's that,

"A week is a long time in politics!", which encapsulates the fast-paced nature of the political realm, where changes and events unfold rapidly, shaping the course of history. (The Socratic Method) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to today, and Konstantin Samoilov (left) has encapsulated the fast-paced nature of the political realm in relation to Putin's war in Ukraine by reporting that,

"Russian oil drops to RECORD LOW price. Russian oil Urals price fell as low as to $36 per barrel.
… 
This is the end of the Russian economy, period.
… 
This is its death. 
(Inside Russia: 19 November 2025) (my emphasis)

He goes on to explain why this dramatic drop in the price of Russia oil signifies the end of the Russian economy.

 
Extract: Inside Russia: 19 November 2025: 
Complete video: Inside Russia:19 November 2025: YouTube

He explains: "This is how much Russian oil actually costs to extract.

(i) Pure lifting and operating costs : Ave. $15 per barrel

(ii) Full cycle cost of Urals  : Ave. $20 per barrel

(iii) Fiscal and Budget break even i.e. ALL costs incl. (i) and (ii),  together with Government costs e.g. all the Taxes, Excise fees ... the price needed to BALANCE State Finances: Ave. $40 per barrel

$36 per barrel is BELOW ALL costs.

But most significantly of all, he predicts that,

"Mark my words. Russia will start negotiating peace soon

And Putin has been very set … very firm … on not making compromise on lands that Russians stole from Ukrainians .. 

Mark my words … He is going to be much softer now because the oil … Russian oil Urals … is trading at $36. 

Putin is cornered … and he's out of money … this is it. No more money from anywhere."
(ibid Konstantin Samoilov)

And with this prediction of  Konstantin Samoilov,  Jaroslav Lukiv and Paul Kirby (right) also report that,

  • "Senior Pentagon officials have arrived in Ukraine to "discuss efforts to end the war" with Russia, the US military has said.
  • … the US and Russia had prepared a new framework peace plan, requiring significant concessions from Ukraine including giving up territory it still controls and dramatically cutting the size of its military.
  • … the plan, drafted by President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev (Not Sergei Lavrov?????) (BBC News: 19 November 2025) (my emphasis)   

And just who is Kirill Dmitriev???

None other than one of Putin's billionaires, and his "Special Presidential Envoy on Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation". 

Billionaire Kirill Dmitriev now stepping into the 'political' shoes that was previosly worn by Sergei Lavrov is yet another indication that, as Konstantin Samoilov points out, "the fall of Urals price [to] as low as to $36 per barrel signifies the end of the Russian economy, period." 

However, Jaroslav Lukiv and Paul Kirby also report that,

"EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas (left) warned on Thursday that for any plan to work, it would need to have Ukrainians and Europeans on board, and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said "the Ukrainians do not want any form of capitulation". (ibid Jaroslav Lukiv and Paul Kirby)

Putin's recent intimidations of Esonia, Poland, Romania, Great Britain and, Belgium (amongst others) by entering their air and sea space with drones and warships cannot simply be ignored by Trump, including his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.  

 
Sky News: 19 November 2025: YouTube

The days that Trump and Rubio believed that they called the 'shots' in dealing soley with Putin about the conditions for a ceasefire in Putin's war with Ukraine, without including Great Britain or the Europeansare long gone.

 
Sky News: 20 November 2025: YouTube 

Putin, with his failing war against Ukraine, and with his economy crumbling to dust in his hands, still believes that his 'nuclear arsenal' is enough with which to intimidate Great Britain and the Europeans.

But the political tide has changed, both inside and outside Russia.

Putin's power, and possibly his life, now hangs by a slender thread.

  

 (to be continued)

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