Will Putin arm an Oreshnik missile with a nuclear warhead to head off defeat in Ukraine?

In my last blog entry (4 January 2026) I wrote that,

"But it was Medvedev’s final message that sent shockwaves globally. Arguing that diplomacy has failed and international law is ignored, he claimed that only maximum military strength — including nuclear weapons — can protect a nation from foreign intervention. His closing words, “Long live nuclear weapons,” are now being interpreted as a veiled warning to the United States and its allies." (Times of India: 4 January 2026) (my emphasis)" (blog-entry 4 January 2026)

No longer is Mevedev's threat of nuclear armageddon a 'veiled warning to the United States and its allies".

By bombing Ukraine with the 'nuclear capable' Oreshnik missiles,
Mark Trevelyan and Andrew Osborn (right) report that,

"President Vladimir Putin's launch of an Oreshnik hypersonic missile appears aimed at intimidating Ukraine and sending a signal of Russian military might to Europe and the United States at a crucial juncture in talks to end the war.
... 

"It does appear that at this point Russia is using Oreshnik for signaling purposes, so the destruction is not necessarily the goal," Pavel Podvig (left), director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, told Reuters when asked if the use of dummy warheads would diminish the capacity of Moscow's action to intimidate Ukraine and its allies." (Reuters: 9 January 2026) (my emphasis)

The argument of Pavel Podvig that Putin is simply bombing Ukrainian civilians with the 'nuclear capable' Oreshnik missile for 'signalling' purposes simply holds no water.

  

 The Sun : 10 January 2026: YouTube

As  Nicolas Drummond (left) explains in the video above,

"If they are on their last legs, desperate people do desperate things (i.e. Putin).
… 
It's very much designed to intimidate, to force Europe to accept Russia's conditions for peace in Ukraine. (i.e. total surender)
… 
I think it's a strategy that will backfire.
… 
If a missile did land in Poland, Poland would regard that as a direct attack its own sovereign territory and would respond very robustly to that.
… 
Russia as lost out to avoid sanctions busting trade thanks to Venezuela um Maduro being taken out, and China's lost access to oil. So Russia is being pushed into a corner by that." (The Sun : 10 January 2026: YouTube)

And backfire it did. 

Already, as Kateryna Tyshchenko reports,

"The UN Security Council is set to convene an emergency meeting on 12 January at Ukraine's request to address Russian attacks, particularly the use of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile.
… 
The meeting will address Russia's flagrant breaches of the UN Charter. We urge Security Council members to demonstrate unity of purpose by demanding an end to the aggression, protection of civilians, and unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty." (Ukrayinska Pravda on Yahoo News: 10 January 2026) (my emphasis)

 Furthermore, recall that, as Ivanna Kostina and Tetyana Oliynyk (right) reported,

"Members of the Coalition of the Willing, together with Ukraine and the US, have signed a joint declaration on security guarantees aimed at achieving a stable and lasting peace in Ukraine.
… 
Participants at a meeting in Paris on 6 January reaffirmed their commitment to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine in line with the principles of the United Nations Charter. They welcomed the progress made so far, including through discussions between American, Ukrainian, European and other international partners." (Ukrayinska Pravda: 6 January 2026) (my emphasis)

 

Coalition of the Willing 

To the initial meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, Russia's standard respose was,

"Russia's Foreign Ministry has said that the Coalition of the Willing declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine is far removed from a peaceful settlement, and that Russia will view Western troops deployed in Ukraine as "legitimate military targets".

Members of the Coalition of the Willing signed a declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine on 6 January in Paris. According to Zakharova, the "document is extremely far from a peaceful settlement". (Khrystyna Bondarieva (left): Ukrayinska Pravda on Yahoo News: 8 January 2026) (my emphasis) 

However Putin and his Kremlin cohorts were completely taken by surprise by the military and financial commitments to Ukraine of the 'Coalition of the Willing', without the participation of the US.

As Mustafa Yildirim reports,

" ... Early this morning (10 January 2026), Central European Time, intelligence sources detected what they described as a co-ordinated series of announcements from European capitals that had clearly been synchronized to the minute. 

• At 0:900 Brussels time, the German Defence Ministry released a statement. 
• At 09:03, the French Ministry of Armed Forces followed.
• At 09:07 the Polish Ministry of National Defence.
• At 09:12 the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence.

What we know at this hour is that European leaders have announced a comprehensive military support package for Ukraine valued at over eighteen billion euros, structured specifically to operate independently of United States approval or participation" (Mustafa Yildirim: 10 January 2026: YouTube)

Mustafa Yildirim: 10 January 2026: YouTube 

 

These announcements of financial and increased military support for Ukraine follow Putin's continuous bombarment of Ukraine civilians with missiles and drones, which has also drawn the ire of  church leaders.

As Maira Butt (right) reported, 

"Church leaders have branded President Vladimir Putin the ‘Anti-Christ’ after the Russian leader said his war with Ukraine was part of a “holy mission”.

Putin called Russian soldiers “warriors” who were acting “as if at the Lord's behest” in a speech marking Orthodox Christmas on Wednesday.

“Trying to do this with power and violence, which is not about love, not about Christian values is more like the Anti-Christ in the Christian world,” the Rector at the Paris of the Protection of the Holy Mother of God in central London told The Independent." (The Independent on MSN: 9 January 2026) (my emphasis)

 

The Independent on MSN: 9 January 2026 

As the Russian economy continues to fall into the abyss of complete collapse, and the people of Russia revolt against the continuing economic decline that is impoverishing them, how far into the economic abyss will Putin descend before he arms an Oreshnik missile heading for Ukraine with a nuclear warhead?

  

 (to be continued)