Putin, the Church, and Ukraine

On the 9th June 2014, I wrote that,

"If Patriarch Kirill could raise Putin's status to sainthood, as Pope Francis recently did with John Paul II, he would do so gladly, and with all the pomp and splendour at his command. And if, in the process, the Russian people are once again reduced to serfdom, then so be it. Was it not during the era of the Czars, when the vast majority of Russians were serfs, that the Russian Orthodox Church was at its zenith?
Ironically, the utter failure of the Bolsheviks to excise the power of the Russian Orthodox Church from the heart of the Russian people has given Putin the perfect vehicle with which to emulate St. George, with the active help and support of Patriarch Kirill. One can only wonder at what is currently being disseminated amongst the people of Russia by the footsoldiers of the Russian Orthodox Church. The deafening silence of the Russian pulpits about the evil been done by Putin in Ukraine has, after all, its historical counterpart in Germany under Hitler. There is, truly, nothing new under the sun."

And now (6 Oct. 2014) it is emerging that the " .. role that Kirill's resurgent church played in the release of the [OSCE] monitors sheds light on how a close cooperation between the state and the church in Russia is now playing out in Ukraine.

What the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) presents as its humanitarian mission in east Ukraine, Western Diplomats see as a pattern of cooperation in which the church is acting as a "soft power" ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin" (Gabriella Baczynska and Tom Henegan) (see also Forbes)

It is well know that "[i]n the early 1990s and later on, Kirill was accused of having links to the KGB during much of the Soviet period, as were many members of the Russian Orthodox Church hierarchy, and of pursuing the state's interests before those of the Church. His alleged KGB agent's codename was "Mikhailov". (Tony Halpin)

Furthermore, "Kirill [was accused] of profiteering and abuse of the privilege of duty-free importation of cigarettes granted to the Church in the mid-1990s and dubbed him "Tobacco Metropolitan". The Department for External Church Relations was alleged to have acted as the largest supplier of foreign cigarettes in Russia. Kirill’s personal wealth was estimated to be $1.5 billion by sociologist Nikolai Mitrokhin in 2004, and at $4 billion by The Moscow News in 2006. However, Nathaniel Davis noted that "...There is no evidence that Metropolitan Kirill has actually embezzled funds. What is more likely is that profits from the importation of tobacco and cigarettes have been used for urgent, pressing Church expenses. The duty-free importation of cigarettes ended in 1997".(Wikipedia) and (Forbes)

Kirill in 1981

Like Putin, Patriarch Kirill also has expensive tastes in watches. Lest this be made public, a picture of him wearing a $30,000 Breguet watch was doctored so that the watch vanished from his wrist and was not on public view. However, sometimes things do go awry, as the pictures below goes to prove. They forgot to 'doctor' the reflection of the watch on the table.

Now you see it (un-doctored)                                          Now you don't (doctored)

The Kyiv Patriarchate, which has 2,781 parishes, split from the Moscow Patriarchate’s Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which has 11,358 parishes, in 1992, after Moscow refused to recognize the Ukrainian church’s independence.(KyivPost Oct. 2 2014)

The conflicts that now exist amongst the Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians in Ukraine have been amplified by the growing schism between the followers of Patriarch Filaret, of the Kyiv Patriarchate, and those of Patriarch Kirill. 

As reported by the KyivPost (Oct. 2 2014), 

"[t]he Kyiv Patriarchate, which describes itself as patriotic and pro-European, has strengthened its position after supporting the EuroMaidan Revolution that drove President Viktor Yanukovych out of power. It has also taken a strong stand in support of Ukraine's defense against Russia's war. Now it is hoping that the wave of patriotic sentiment will help unify the two major Ukrainian Orthodox groups into a single independent church."

Patriarch Filaret

Furthermore, that "[t]he unification of the Moscow Patriarchate's Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Kyiv Patriarchate will inevitably happen because Ukraine has become an independent state and must have its own independent church", said Filaret. (KyivPost)

Given the preponderence of parishes of the Moscow Orthodox Church in Ukraine, one can only begin to imagine what the Ukrainian members of those parishes, who sympathise with the EuroMaidan revolution, must be going through. Even more depressing for them, how do they now respond towards their priests from whom they seek spiritual guidance? And what about those priests themselves, who take their orders from Patriarch Kirill? 

Let us not forget that Patriarch Kirill "called the "12 years of Vladimir Putin's rule a "miracle of God (my emphasis)" and criticised his opponents, at a gathering where religious leaders heaped praise on the [then] prime minister." (Reuters Feb 8, 2012)
 

Where Kirill praised Putin

And now?

How does Putin's 'religious' oligarch sleep at night?

(to be continued)

Putin putting on a brave face ...

"Oh! what a tangled web we weave

  When first we practice to deceive"

Lavrov has said that ties with Washington needs a reset v2.00, whilst at the same time continuing to maintain the deception that Russia does not have any intimate involvement with her proxies in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, whilst bombs from Russian proxies are raining around Donetsk airport, Lavrov has the effrontery to say that,

" ..... thanks to "initiatives of the Russian President", the situation was improving on the ground in Ukraine, where a ceasefire has been in place for several weeks. The Sept.5 truce is largely holding though some fighting has continued in places including the rebel stronghold of Donetsk."

 Pro-Russian rebels fire towards Ukrainian positions near the airport, from make-shift shelters inside houses

Meanwhile, Poland has yesterday ( Tue Oct 7, 2014) warned Russia that it could face tougher sanctions over Ukraine because breaches of the ceasefire continues due in main to the active support been given by Putin to his proxies in Donetsk in particular. 

"If Russia does not change its policy, sanctions will be toughened and they will make themselves felt even more in Russia," Schetyna said in an interview with Polish broadcast Polsat News."

  

Even the IMF has concluded that the battered Russian economy faces more pain over Ukraine, as reported yesterday by Max Delaney

But Putin is putting on a brave face  by saying at an annual conference in Moscow, and attended by Russian delegates and other business leaders from around the world, that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions. (3 Oct 2014)

Putin addressing delegates

What is the effect of the sanctions against Russia on Central Asia?
As Stephen Blank points out (May 27, 2014),

"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has called Russia’s invasion, occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula. along with its incitement of a civil war in Eastern Ukraine. a game-changer. One region where this description could possess particular resonance is Central Asia. All Central Asian governments have considerable reasons for alarm in the wake of Russia’s actions and the supine Western response. In this context, Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Duma of March 18, 2014 represented a landmine under the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all five Central Asian states with the threat of Russian military action should they somehow threaten the dignity and honor of Russians who are citizens in their states." (my emphasis)

"Kazakhstan, which had previously boasted the most dynamic economic outlook in the region, seems especially vulnerable to continued Russian economic myopia. Not only does a weakening ruble continue to threaten Kazakhstan’s economy, but the Moscow-led counter-sanctions also present a significant risk to sustained growth. As one economic analyst told The Astana Times, “Russian counter-sanctions in food products can be expected to, on balance, have an overwhelmingly negative overall impact on Kazakhstan through potential food price inflation and domestic supply risks[.]” It’s small wonder Kazakhstan has been one of the most vocal nations calling for an end to all post-Crimea sanctions." (Casey Michel October 02, 2014)

Kazakhstan

"Furthermore, "Not only has Moscow’s decision-making [regarding Ukraine] continued to erode its own economic salience, but, for those most dependent on a healthy Russian economy – in Astana, in Bishkek – the fiscal realities of a Russian partnership seem ready to continue their downward trend for the foreseeable future." (my emphasis) (Casey Michel)

As with Ukraine, "Vladimir Putin made ominous comments on Kazakhstan's statehood at the Seliger Youth Forum last month"  (Casy Michel The Moscow Times September 16, 2014) It would therefore seems that Putin's dream about a Eurasian Economic Community, a counter economic block to the EU, is rapidly evaporating. Putin's fine words viz. "that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions", simply does not "butter any parsnips". But for how long will these sanctions last?

It is interesting to note that, "EU diplomats said that countries with close ties to Russia such as Italy, Austria and Finland are reluctant to implement the new sanctions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for the sanctions to go ahead, adding that "they could always be suspended at a later date (my emphasis) if there was progress towards a peace plan for Ukraine." What is even more interesting is that Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, who has been chosen to be the EU's new foreign policy chief, told reporters in Brussels that "Some countries are asking for time", declining to say who those countries were. "Unity in this is absolutely crucial and strategic," she said. (Reuters 10 September 2014)

What is rather interesting about both Merkel and the 'fragrant' Mogherini is that both were active participants in the communist parties in their respective countries.

Federica Mogherini

Mogherini was a member of the Italian Communist Youth Federation from 1988,  and in 1996 she joined the Youth Left after the dissolution of theItalian Communist Party and its transformation into a social-democratic party. Thus, her appointment [as the EU's new foreign policy chief] has proved extremely controversial because she and the Italian government were seen in many quarters as too sympathetic to Moscow, and French newspaper, 'Le Monde' has described the appointment as "a sad day for Europe".

Just recently the 'fragrant' Mogherini, facing European Parliament lawmakers in a confirmation hearing (06 October 2014), and asked how she would deal with the Russian "bear" -- often used as diplomatic shorthand for a powerful and unpredictable Moscow, she responded,

"I do not have much experience of dealing with bears," Mogherini said, suggesting her   colleagues from countries closer to Russia might be better placed to answer the question.
"However, I would say we need a mix of assertiveness and diplomacy... the balance would depend on the reaction of the bear."

Angela Merkel and Putin

 Merkel was "a former member of the East German Communist Party who functioned as a mid-level propaganda commissar for the Free German Youth, that is, the young Communists. She and the then-KGB operative Putin, who is fluent in German, were active in East Germany at the same time. Whether they met or worked together, [we simply do not know], but they were both in the same line of work" (M.E. Synon  3 July 2014)

It should always be borne in mind that when Merkel advocates maintaining sanctions  against Russia (October 3 2014), nonetheless Putin has more than enough supporters in Germany to counteract her stance. As Clemens Wergin reported in May of this year, "..an investigative report by the newspaper Welt am Sonntag revealed how a shady network of Russia supporters has shaped public discourse in Germany." These 'shady' supporters are not only German industrialists but also German politicians and political parties. Why? Because Putin "[is] leaving Germany’s factories in a worse state than anyone imagined." (Peter Spence 23 Sept 2014)

Bearing all this in mind, can we really say that Putin is "putting on a brave face", or does he believe that his "friends" in the EU will soon begin to clamour for the suspension of the sanctions against Russia. With the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini at the helm of  the EU's foreign policy, and Merkel worrying about both the outcome of the upcoming German Federal elections and the growing parlous state of the German economy (Mike Bird Oct 7 2014), 

Putin may, indeed, be in a much stronger position regarding the suspension of EU sanctions thanks to Mogherini and Merkel. Added to which, the ISIS situation in the Middle East, coupled with the global ebola scare, is pushing the Ukrainian invasion by Russia onto the diplomatic back-burner, so to speak. The impending outcome of the German federal elections has, indeed, become critical for Poroshenko. Will Angela Merkel still be in power?

Putin bribing his main supporters and controlling what Russians hear about the war in Ukraine

If Putin thought that his recent threats or that his attempted deflection of the eyes of the EU and the US away from Ukraine and towards the Middle East and ISIS was working, he must have been somewhat disappointed now that EU ambassadors have decided to keep the current round of sanctions against Russia in place.

"The EU is to keep sanctions against Russia in place, judging that Ukraine's peace deal is not fully effective.

EU ambassadors who met on Tuesday had noted some "encouraging developments" since the 5 September ceasefire was agreed, an EU spokeswoman said. But other parts of the peace deal "will need to be properly implemented", said the spokeswoman, Maja Kocijancic." (BBC News 30 September 2014)

Adding to his woes, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine will be supplying Ukraine with drones as an additional monitoring instrument. (October 1st 2014)

Even the economy is having severe problems, with the Russian government unwilling to face up to this reality, as reported in the Economist. (30 September 2014)

"TODAY  Russia submitted its budget to the Duma, the lower house of the parliament. After three rounds of discussions, Vladimir Putin, the president, will sign it into law. The budget shows how much trouble the Russian economy is in—and how unwilling the government is to face up to reality. ......The budget looks like a desperate attempt by the Kremlin to project strength and maintain public support, when in fact it is looking ever weaker."

"The budget sees slower public wage increases, but nonetheless allocates 57 percent of its spending to social causes, chiefly supporting Putin's main electorate — pensioners and state sector employees." (Moscow Times)

But will Putin's blatant bribing of pensioners and state sector employees still the growing voices of despair amongst Russia's wives and mothers who have lost husbands and sons in his war against Ukraine?

 

 

As Corey Flintoff has reported,

"Valentina Melnikova, the head of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, an organization representing the troops' families, said in an interview with the independent TV channel Rain that there are reports that families have been told to keep quiet about the losses of their loved ones in the service."

But how much longer can Putin sustain the lie that," ...  Russian soldiers are part of the battle — though they are ...... volunteers, on leave from their army jobs", even in the face of  " [t]he Russian TV channel NTV [carrying] a report on the funerals of two Russian paratroopers who were killed while fighting in Ukraine", and who were buried with full military honours? (Corey Flintoff)

If this does not indicate Putin's contempt for the Russian people, as does his previous go-ahead to the FSB to blow up those flats in Russian cities in 1999 that killed hundreds of Russians, then I fail to see what else can. Putin should be made aware of the truism that:

You can fool ALL of the people SOME to the time,

SOME of the people ALL of the time,

But NOT all of the people ALL of the time.

 

That Putin is under the delusion that he can fool all of the people all of the time is indicated by him and his Security Council embarking to-day (1st October 2014) on a discussion about how to counteract "threats to national security in the information sphere", as reported by Itar Tass, the Russian News Agency.

This is why more than 2000 websites have been closed in Russia over the past two years.

But unfortunately for him, railing against the internet as a CIA tool unleashed by the US upon the world rather displays his ignorance about about the actual origins of the internet. What it does display, however, is that the Kremlin is turning more and more to conspiracy theory as a "major tool" with which to manage its own people, as Vladimir Zhirinovsky has suggested it should do. What is very sad is that this is being done over the dead bodies of Russians and Ukrainians.

Putin may be in a powerful position to bribe the Russian people to believe in his narratives about Ukraine, and to control what the Russian people hear about his invasion of Ukraine, but there is still the rest of the world. Putin is throwing millions of dollars into his global TV propaganda machine, RT (Russia Today). As Benjamin Bidder of Der Spiegel points out:

"Since 2005, the Russian government has increased the channel's annual budget more than tenfold, from $30 million (€22.6 million) to over $300 million. Russia Today's budget covers the salaries of 2,500 employees and contractors worldwide, 100 in Washington alone. And the channel has no budget cuts to fear now that Putin has issued a decree forbidding his finance minister from taking any such steps."(my emphasis)

RT Headquarters in Moscow

True to the proposal of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, "Russia Today also uses a chaotic mixture of conspiracy theories and crude propaganda [with which to manage its global audience]. On the program "The Truthseeker," the attack on the Boston Marathon, in which two ethnic Chechens killed three people with bombs in April, mutated into a US government conspiracy" (Benjamin Bidder)

But even more disconcerting is the fact that Sergey Lavrov, that Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Foreign Minister of Russia, is doing precisely what Zhirinovsky has suggested.

"Russia’s foreign minister [Lavrov] said on Wednesday that 400 bodies had been found in mass graves in eastern Ukraine but the claim looked highly contentious after it emerged that reports from the scene had been distorted by Russian media", as reported from Moscow by Tom Parfitt  (1st October 2014)"

“This is obviously a war crime,” Sergei Lavrov told a press conference in Moscow. “Already more than 400 bodies have been discovered in burial sites outside Donetsk and we hope that western capitals will not hush up these facts [because] they’re horrific.”

Unfortunately for Lavrov, one of Putin's proxies in Donetsk,  Andrei Purgin, had to correct him.

"Andrei Purgin, a senior rebel leader, said that only nine bodies had been discovered, not 400. “We were misunderstood,” he said, according to Interfax. We were speaking about the fact that 400 is the overall number of unidentified bodies in Donetsk morgues, 90% of whom are civilians who died at different times.”

What Putin and his clique seem to be quite oblivous about is that the global audience has access to a wide range of  different perspectives about the current war between Ukraine and Russia. Furthermore, Putin and his clique cannot control what the global audience reads or views. Thus the global audience has viewed the recent toppling of Lenin's statue in Kharkiv.

Toppling Lenin's statue in Kharkiv

The toppling of Lenin statues has happened throughout Ukraine. (Rick Noack). And the whole world knows about it, and why the Ukrainian people have done this. RT may give its 'Putin spin' about this event but, yet again, the  'false' Putin propaganda-narrative simply shines through, as in the case of the Boston Marathon bombings.

(to be continued)

Putin protecting his mafia-siloviki clan

Like any mafia Don who protects those closest to him, Putin's response to the sanctions imposed upon Russia and his clique by the EU, US, and Japan is to:

• Create a law, proposed by the deputy of the United Russia faction Vladimir Ponevezhsky, to amend current legislation so that the individuals, whose property was arrested under "unjust judicial acts," could apply to the Russian court asking to be compensated for seized property. 
• Create a law to seize the assets of foreign states and foreign entities (read "foreign individuals and companies")
• To receive compensation from foreign states for the seized property of Russian citizens 

The heading of Kenneth Rapoza's article says it all:
   
"Russia's Latest Retaliation Against Sanctions Puts American Multinationals In Crosshairs"

In other words, Putin is wanting to 'compensate' members of his closest clique whose assets have been confiscated under the rules of the sanctions that have been imposed upon Russia and his 'oligarch' supporters closest to him. A recent case in point of the seizure of assets by an EU country is that of Italy, where the authorities have seized 30 m Euros worth of assets from Arkady Rotenberg, a very close ally of Putin from his days in St. Petersburg.

Arkady Rotenberg

As Tomas Hirst  reveals, Boris Nemtsov, in response to these proposed laws, has written on Facebook

"What is [the benefit of] a strongman's (Putin's) friendship? It's when you have 4 villas, apartments and a hotel seized in Italy and your accomplice in the Kremlin immediately introduces a bill for damages from the Russian budget." 

                                       (click subtitles for an English translation in fullscreen)
In other words, Putin's  created 'oligarch clique' want to be compensated by the Russian taxpayer from whom they stole their money in the first place. 

Yet, as Hirst points out, "Given Russia's parlous economic position — GDP grew only 0.8% this year — the concept of using state funds to bail out multimillionaire businessmen may be received poorly in the country."(my emphasis)

But will the ordinary Russian taxpayers even mildly grumble about these oligarchs being compensated by the State with their money, given the fact the nearly ALL the Russian media is really the propaganda tool of Putin? Furthermore, that the latest Russian budget, " ..[has] allocated 57 percent of its spending to social causes, chiefly supporting Putin's main electorate — pensioners and state sector employees.", as reported in the Moscow Times.(Sep. 18 2014)

Are these laws proposed by Putin really to stave off  dissent among the business elite, who may begin to challenge his actions against the West and against Ukraine? As John Lough points out,

"The ‘economic bloc’ in the government has found itself marginalized with decision-making left to an increasingly narrow group around Putin." (my emphasis)

John Lough. Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

And it is precisely this narrow group of decision-makers (read "Putin's clan") that have been targeted by sanctions, and that is now ensuring that these sanctions will not impoverish them.

At the same time "Putin has deliberately chosen to make an example of Yevtushenkov and send a signal to keep big business on its toes. The core message is that there are new rules of the game and no one is untouchable." (John Lough) (my emphasis) One can almost hear the ghostly echo of Khodorkovsky rattling about in his prison cell.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the battle for Donetsk airport continues, nothwithstanding that 'ceasefire' clause of the agreed Minsk (read "Putin's") Protocol of 5th September 2014.
 

Is it any wonder that, " Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told German Chancellor Angela Merkel -- his closest and most powerful European ally -- on Monday that Russia was ignoring the terms of a September 5 peace pact the sides sealed in the Belarussian capital Minsk", as reported by Dmitry Zaks. Is this breaking of the ceasefire by Russia's proxies in eastern Ukraine Putin's ploy to undermine " the ballot for October 26 parliamentary polls once the registration deadline passes on Tuesday night (30 Sept 2014)."? (Dmitry Zaks)

Poroshenko's "highly controversial decision to promise temporary self-rule for territories under rebel control in exchange for their renouncement of independence has dominated political debate in the run-up to the parliamentary polls". (Dmitry Zaks) (my emphasis) One can only hope that he will  secure a majority in the 450-seat chamber though, as Dmitry Zaks points out, "his chances of forging a coalition that could help him make peace with Russia while securing a military and economic alliance with the West at present look somewhat remote."

Meanwhile, as new evidence is emerging that Russian troops are active in eastern Ukraine, Obama and the EU are focusing their efforts on takling ISIS in the Middle East.

Moscow's plan to decoy the West

As  Eglė Samoškaitė points out, "Moscow seems to be making [an] effort to patch up its relations with the West after a fall-out over Ukraine by trying to refocus attention away from Eastern Europe and onto the Middle East. Experts say, however, that the trick might not work." On the other hand, it may work. And this is the big danger for Ukraine. 

(to be continued)

Putin's 'one trick' energy economy and the coming of winter

Anne Applebaum, in a talk given at the LSE (London School of Economics) on 28 January 2013, pointed out that Russia is a 'one-trick' energy exporting economy, much like e.g. Saudi Arabia.

As Danny Vinik, amongst many others, shows; Russia's total energy exports constitutes more than two-thirds of their total exports.

It is this singular and incontrovertible fact, together with the critical dependence of many EU countries on Russian gas imports, that gives so many in the EU cause for concern about not ruffling the feathers of the increasingly paranoid Putin, in particular over his invasion of Ukraine. Putin has no other alternative but to use a plethora of different economic, re-armament, and military threats against the Ukraine and the EU in particular purely as a means of disguising his major concern should  the income from Russia's energy exports begin to fall due to the start of fracking in the EU. As Bjorn Lomberg points out,"Fracking could free Europe from Putin" Is it therefore any wonder that Putin is throwing a lot of money into an anti-fracking campaign? As Robert Zubrin points out:

"... it should come as no surprise that the Putin regime is pulling out all the stops in fomenting the global anti-fracking movement, with Europe as its central target. Leading the propaganda campaign has been RT News, Russia’s state-owned television network, which broadcasts around the world in English and other languages."

Putin against fracking

And supporting Putin's anti-fracking propaganda in the EU Parliament are 50 Green MEP's.
 

With Putin's 'friends' like this in the EU Parliament, does Ukraine need enemies

With all of this in mind, and re-visiting that deal brokered after hours of acrimonious negotiations in Berlin by Günther H. Oettinger, the European Union energy commissioner, on 26th September, and that set out the following:

• Ukraine to pay 'over the odds' ($385 per 1,000 cubic meters) for it's gas from Russia when compared to the rest of the EU.
• Ukraine to pay 'upfront' for its gas. Gazprom will ensure that at least 5 billion cubic meters of gas are supplied to Ukraine from October to March which must be prepaid before delivery.
•  The EU to guarantee a loan from the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine meet its debt payments. The deal foresees an initial installment of $2 billion due by the end of October, with the outstanding $1.1 billion due by the end of December,

is it any wonder that Poroshenko has backed off from this EU-backed Russian deal? Andriy Kobolev, [Ukraine's] Naftogaz state energy firm chief, has also firmly stated that "No final decision was adopted. Not a single document was signed -- period".

Günther H. Oettinger, the European Union energy commissioner

Why, therefore, are so many EU politicians blinded by the fact that Putin is more dependent on Russia's sale of gas to the EU than the EU is dependent on Russia supplying it with gas? Russia's threat to cut off gas supplies to Europe would seriously cripple the Russian economy. The European public may experience a rather cold winter in their homes, but the warmth that Russian homes will enjoy over this winter will be coupled with higher inflation, a drastic fall in their standard of living, and food shortages. Add to this Putin's threat to the Russian people to cut off their access to the internet, a threat that will particularly be hard felt by the younger generation, and you have a volatile mixture that could lead either to a 'Russian Spring' or to fully fledged Russian fascistic militarism. The stage has already been set up by Putin for the latter scenario. But even here Putin is taking a big gamble. Already he is causing Russia to be viewed negatively by the rest of the global community, not only by the EU and the US. The credibility of Russia in relation to the war in Ukraine has taken a rather steep dive at the UN. Russia may be able to use conspiracies as a "major tool" with which to manage its own people, but this will simply not work on the rest of the global community.

The question why so many EU countries are still afraid to bite the bullet and seriously confront Putin and his actions in Ukraine still remains.Why is only Ukrainian President Poroshenko standing up to Putin? Only last Sunday  he said that Kiev’s EU Association Agreement will come into force in full in November despite an agreement between Moscow, Brussels and Kiev to postpone full implementation until January 2016. This has rather angered Putin, forcing him into even more apopletic threats.“Russia is guided by the agreements reached at the three party talks, but at the same time is ready to defend its position. Russia remains committed to these agreements, but is ready to respond if [a party to the deal acts] in breach of previously reached agreements,” Dmitry Peskov (Putin's spokesman) said on 29 September 2014.

Dmitry Peskov. Putin's spokesman

Is this latest threat of Putin yet another indicator that the wobbling Russian economy could soon be teetering on the precipice of a headlong nosedive into recession? All those nest eggs that were stored away when the Russian economy was in full flow, and oil and gas money simply swamped the government coffers to overflowing, are already beginning to disappear thanks, in particular, to the implementation of the latest EU and US (and Japanese) sanctions against Russia.

(to be continued)

Putin, Ukraine, and the coming of Winter 2014

As if almost to underscore the palpable fear that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has of Putin; three days after a meeting in Budapest between himself and Alexei Miller, the head of Russian gas giant Gazprom, Orban indefinetly suspended delivering gas to neighbouring Ukraine.

Alexei Miller                           Victor Orban

Ukrainian state gas firm Naftogaz confirmed the stoppage, saying it was "unexpected and unexplained ".

And what was the excuse of Orban for cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine? He had " ..acted to raise the flow of gas to Hungary, due to an expected increase in demand." Really? Even though Ukraine has been receiving gas from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia in the face of Russia cutting off supplies to it in June in a dispute over unpaid bills? 

If Hungary, who imports LESS gas from Russia than most other EU countries, is so quick to buckle under to Putin, now that winter is just around the corner what about all those other EU countries that are so dependent on Russian gas?

At the same time, a deal has been brokered yesterday in Berlin whereby Russia will continue to supply Ukraine with gas despite the ongoing dispute between them about Ukraine's outstanding bills, as reported by Melissa Eddy and Alison Smale.(25/9/2014). 

  Whilst this deal, essentially brokered by Angela Merkel, may seem to be in everyone's favour, it should be borne in mind that:

• Ukraine is paying 'over the odds' ($385 per 1,000 cubic meters) for it's gas from Russia when compared to the rest of the EU.
• Ukraine has been forced to pay 'upfront' for its gas. Gazprom will ensure that at least 5 billion cubic meters of gas are supplied to Ukraine from October to March which must be prepaid before delivery.
•  The EU would guarantee a loan from the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine meet its debt payments. The deal foresees an initial installment of $2 billion due by the end of October, with the outstanding $1.1 billion due by the end of December.

In light of this deal, why has Hungary suddenly and indefinetly stopped supplying Ukraine with gas? Is it because the Hungarian neo-Nazi party Jobbik, which got 20% of the vote in the April election of this year securing 47 out of 199 seats in the Hungarian parliament, had to be taken into account by Victor Orban in his dealings with Putin? 

Gabor Vona. Leader of Hungarian neo-Nazi party Jobikk

Even more disconcerting, Neo-Nazi and right-wing parties across the EU have made spectacular gains in the 2014 EU elections, as reported by Charlotte McDonald-Gibson and John Lichfield. 

French Right Wing                           Greek Right Wing

That these Neo-Nazi and extreme right-wing supporters of Putin are influencing the decisions of the EU about Ukraine in favour of Putin really goes without question.

Strangely,  Lavrov is now arguing (September 26, 2014) that the crisis in Ukraine is, in fact, a reflection of the contradictions within the Euro-Atlantic region viz. NATO. This is a mere regurgitation of an argument that Putin presented on 10th September 2014 to a meeting in the Kremlin. Lavrov's 'diplomatic' argument comes on the heels of Russia's low credibility on Ukraine at the UN meeting addressed by Obama and Yatsenyuk  on 24th September. Essentially Lavrov is trying to push the Minsk Protocol of 5th September 2014 which the following participants attended viz.

• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
• Russia's proxies in Eastern Ukraine DPR and LPR leadersAleksandr Zakharchenko and Ihor Plotnytskiv

No current EU representative, nor the current Ukrainian President, nor the current Ukrainian Prime Minister attended this meeting.

With the exception of Heidi Tagliavini (a Swiss diplomat), this was a meeting rubber-stamping Putin's agenda and attended by those who feared him (Kuchma), depended on his patronage (Mikhail Zurabov), and his Russian criminal cohorts disguised as 'leaders' in eastern Ukraine (Zakharchenko and Plotyntskiv).

 

Kuchma and the Yanukovych-Yushchenko 

Presidential elections of 2004

What this clip demonstrates, more than anything else, is that Putin carries a grudge for a very long time. He simply cannot forgive the people of Ukraine for daring to overthrow his candidate, Yanukovych, in the 2004 presidential elections in Ukraine. Even more galling for him is that in 2014 they did it for a second time! As Kuchma says in the clip, " ... Putin is a hard man!"

Notice, too, Putin's remarks that, "We should not let it become international practice for such disputes i.e. about the rigging of the 2004 elections by  his man Yanukovych, to be settled by mobs on the streets ..." And what about his criminal mobs that started the current war in eastern Ukraine?

And now the 'diplomatic' Lavrov has the galling effrontery to try and put the blame on NATO, the EU, and the US, for what Putin has started. Did NATO, the EU, and the US also precipitate Putin's invasion of Crimea? What has happened to the, "I'm protecting Russians" legitimation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine that has been forced down the throats of the unsuspecting Russian people?

This rather shrill Anti-Americanism of Putin, that has been steadily ramping up since the start of this Russian-Ukraine war, has now turned into a paranoid avalanche of 'conspiracy theories'. Even one of Putin's staunchest supporters, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, current vice-chairman of the Russian State Duma, recently announced on Russia's most popular TV prime-time talk show 'Time Will Tell' that;

• Russia is the target of a global plot orchestrated by the United States and involving fighters from the self-styled Islamic State (IS) and nationalist Ukrainian troops
• "America is everywhere, the West is everywhere, Nato is everywhere. Everything is organised against Russia,"
•  He also suggests that if the current stand-off with the West continues, the Kremlin will turn more and more to conspiracy theory as a "major tool" with which to manage its own people.

This 'major tool' is currently been handled rather deftly on the international front by Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov with his recent regurgitation of Putin's paranoia about NATO and the EU.
 
(to be continued)
  

Does Putin's latest threat hide his fears?

It has now emerged that Putin has demanded from the EU a re-opening of the, "... recently-ratified trade pact with Ukraine and has threatened “immediate and appropriate retaliatory measures" if Kyiv moves to implement any parts of the deal ...", as reported yesterday (24th September 2014) by Peter Spiegel in Brussels. (cf. also Russia demands changes to Ukraine-EU trade deal).  

With a copy of the Putin demands sent to the EU and also sent to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, Ulyukayev said Russia could treat even a partial implementation of the treaty as a trigger to react. In a recent letter to the EU trade commissioner, seen by Reuters on Thursday, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said Moscow wanted three-way negotiations to amend the EU's treaty with Kiev, which Russia says will hurt its own economy.
  
"We reiterate our intention to adjust, if necessary, the preferential regime between Russia and Ukraine in order to minimise negative problems related to the change in the trading regime between Ukraine and the EU, not excluding other ways to protect the Russian economy." (my emphasis)

Russia unhappy with the EU-Ukraine trade pact. 

Even more interesting, José Manuel Barroso, current President of the European Commission, won't rule out changes to the EU-Ukraine Pact if Kiev makes such a request.

José Manuel Barroso

This threat of Putin, besides his 'nuclear' threat, his threat about being able to invade Kiev in 2 weeks, pricking at the air space of Canada, the US, and Sweden with his jet fighters and nuclear bombers, and pointing out to all and sundry that he also has his sights on certain former Eastern European countries who are now a part of the EU; is this merely the bullying display of a 'paper tiger', to use a phrase coined by Mao Tse Tung?

Furthermore, what is rather significant about this latest threat is that Moscow is worried that the EU-Ukraine economic pact will mean that Ukraine will [have to] bar imports from Russia that fail to meet EU quality standards. This specific condition will also block any attempt by Russian businessmen to circumvent EU quality control by trying to export to the EU via dummy companies that they may set up in Ukraine, since Ukraine itself will also have to conform to EU quality standards.

Putin's threat against Ukraine's current trade with Russia rings rather hollow since Ukraine now has the whole of the EU to trade with at a preferrential level. It is this which rather sticks in the craw of both Putin and Medvedev. After all, Medvedev is now checking Russian supermarket prices to ensure that they are not overcharging Russian consumers in the face of the current sanctions, as reported in the Moscow Times on September 1st.

Medvedev checking supermarket prices

Furthermore, his threat about ending overflight rights of Western airlines means that Russia will lose $500 million in overflight rights payments, as pointed out by Tim Worstall on 9th September. As he says, ".... it’s not entirely obvious that Russia has a proper grasp on who gets harmed by trade sanctions."

Even more bizarre is Putin's total misunderstanding that "Reopening the legal texts [of the EU-Ukraine Trade Pact] would pose problems for the EU's multinational procedures and pose serious diplomatic obstacles". Yet some " ... EU officials say that there is room for compromise with Moscow on Ukrainian trade; Russian exporters could have a soft route to compliance with EU quality and other standards in Ukraine so that they only need meet the requirements for selling goods into the EU-Ukraine free-trade area over a very long time." This suggestion has not gone down well with some EU members, notably Poland.

"Diplomats from one eastern EU member said they were angry that De Gucht (European Commissioner for Trade)  had agreed to the delay without consulting them and felt that Germany and other major powers had given in to pressure from Russia.

Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a Polish member of the European Parliament which ratified the accord simultaneously with Kiev, voiced a similar view.
"Putting the EU-Ukraine trade deal on ice is the wrong decision," he said. "It would delay the necessary reforms and set a bad precedent."

Once again Germany, amongst others, (Is that the voice of Matteo Renzi that I hear?) is vacillating even though, as Steven Hill so correctly pointed out on 23/09/2014," Chancellor Angela Merkel’s foreign policy of engagement towards Russia, and her personal relationship with President Vladimir Putin, [now] lie in tatters.".

Angela Merkel and Putin

Furthermore, " ... [H]er approach toward Russia appears to indicate a doctrinaire mindset that sees doubling down on failed policies as a sign of strength and resoluteness. While all is quiet at the moment on the Eastern front, Chancellor Merkel does not appear to have a Plan B." Nor, it would seem, does she have the stomach to simply confront her businessmen who are still sucking at the teats of the corrupt Russian cow.

De Gucht

Controversially, the Flemish De Gucht has been accused of Insider Trading (2008) when he was a minister in the federal government of Belgium, anti-Semitism for his remarks about Jews in relation to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the September 2010 Washington talks, and racism by the Congolese Information Minister, Henri Mova Sakanyi, for his remarks about the government of the Demcratic Republic of Congo. And as recently as April 2012, he attracted criticism for a groundless statement as EU Trade Commissioner that Ireland was "already out of recession". He somewhat reminds me of the many European right-wing organizations, individuals, and political parties who are fervently and quietly in support of Putin.

Taking all of this into account, can we say that Putin and his current 'economic' threat against Ukraine is merely those of a "paper tiger"? Will the EU buckle under this threat and give in to Moscow, who now wants three-way negotiations between the Ukraine, Russia, and the EU, to amend the EU's treaty with Kiev simply because it will hurt Russia's economy? Is Tim Worstall correct in saying that, ".... it’s not entirely obvious that Russia has a proper grasp on who gets harmed by trade sanctions," or the Ukraine-EU Trade Treaty for that matter? Or is the Putin mafiosi clan beginning to fray at the edges.

Consider the rather childish and undiplomatic response of the Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, towards the speech given by Arseny Yatsenyuk, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, to the General Assembly at the UN yesterday, 24th September,  viz. 

• “Mr. Putin, you can win a battle against the troops, but you will never defeat the people – united Ukrainian nation,” the PM said. Churkin was puzzled by that. “It’s strange that his speech ended up in a melodramatic call to the Russian president,” or
•  “It’s strange that Ukraine’s PM, instead of solving the multiple problems of his country, which is nearing economic collapse, has come to New York to speak in front of a half-empty General Assembly room,” How many half-empty General Assembly's has Churkin spoken to? 

Vitaly Churkin in the UN General Assembly

Is this an indicator that the weight of the bald-faced lies that Putin and his propaganda machine has had to invent regarding the direct Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine has become too much to bear, even for Vitaly Churkin? And what does Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet-educated Foreign Minister of Russia, that stickler for diplomatic language and protocol, have to say about his colleague's childish remarks? His silence is positively deafening.

Sergey Lavrov

Maybe because Churkin had to listen to what Obama, in his speech, had to say about Putin and Ukraine  prior to the address of Arseny Yatsenyuk viz.

"If we lift our eyes beyond our borders - if we think globally and act co-operatively - we can shape the course of this century as our predecessors shaped the post-World War Two age."
Sharply critical of Russian actions in Ukraine (my emphasis), Mr Obama said it was an example of what happens when countries do not respect international laws and norms. (my emphasis)
He called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to follow "the path of diplomacy and peace and the ideals this institution is designed to uphold"

that Churkin had to respond to Yatsenyuk's speech as he did. Thus, in light of his respone to the speech of Yatsenyuk, one could almost say to Churkin in relation to the speech of Obama ,"Cat caught your tongue?"

And yet .... and yet .... "...many [EU] governments are wary of antagonizing Russia, the bloc's leading energy supplier, and fear more Russian trade retaliation. Russia has already responded to EU and U.S. sanctions by banning imports of most food from the West", as reported by Adrian Croft and Robin Emmot. (Thu Sep 25, 2014 ) In fact, as they point out, "...Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, have been openly scornful of sanctions and these countries are likely to push for an easing of sanctions next week." How ironic! Has the Hungarian Prime Minister forgotten about 1956, when Russian troops and tanks poured into Budapest to put down a revolt by the Hungarian people? Or has the Slovak Prime Minister forgotten about 1968? 
 

Viktor Orban                                    Robert Fico

Or does it all boil down to gas and oil, now that winter is but 2 months away.


(to be continued)