Putin, Ukraine, and the coming of Winter 2014

As if almost to underscore the palpable fear that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has of Putin; three days after a meeting in Budapest between himself and Alexei Miller, the head of Russian gas giant Gazprom, Orban indefinetly suspended delivering gas to neighbouring Ukraine.

Alexei Miller                           Victor Orban

Ukrainian state gas firm Naftogaz confirmed the stoppage, saying it was "unexpected and unexplained ".

And what was the excuse of Orban for cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine? He had " ..acted to raise the flow of gas to Hungary, due to an expected increase in demand." Really? Even though Ukraine has been receiving gas from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia in the face of Russia cutting off supplies to it in June in a dispute over unpaid bills? 

If Hungary, who imports LESS gas from Russia than most other EU countries, is so quick to buckle under to Putin, now that winter is just around the corner what about all those other EU countries that are so dependent on Russian gas?

At the same time, a deal has been brokered yesterday in Berlin whereby Russia will continue to supply Ukraine with gas despite the ongoing dispute between them about Ukraine's outstanding bills, as reported by Melissa Eddy and Alison Smale.(25/9/2014). 

  Whilst this deal, essentially brokered by Angela Merkel, may seem to be in everyone's favour, it should be borne in mind that:

• Ukraine is paying 'over the odds' ($385 per 1,000 cubic meters) for it's gas from Russia when compared to the rest of the EU.
• Ukraine has been forced to pay 'upfront' for its gas. Gazprom will ensure that at least 5 billion cubic meters of gas are supplied to Ukraine from October to March which must be prepaid before delivery.
•  The EU would guarantee a loan from the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine meet its debt payments. The deal foresees an initial installment of $2 billion due by the end of October, with the outstanding $1.1 billion due by the end of December.

In light of this deal, why has Hungary suddenly and indefinetly stopped supplying Ukraine with gas? Is it because the Hungarian neo-Nazi party Jobbik, which got 20% of the vote in the April election of this year securing 47 out of 199 seats in the Hungarian parliament, had to be taken into account by Victor Orban in his dealings with Putin? 

Gabor Vona. Leader of Hungarian neo-Nazi party Jobikk

Even more disconcerting, Neo-Nazi and right-wing parties across the EU have made spectacular gains in the 2014 EU elections, as reported by Charlotte McDonald-Gibson and John Lichfield. 

French Right Wing                           Greek Right Wing

That these Neo-Nazi and extreme right-wing supporters of Putin are influencing the decisions of the EU about Ukraine in favour of Putin really goes without question.

Strangely,  Lavrov is now arguing (September 26, 2014) that the crisis in Ukraine is, in fact, a reflection of the contradictions within the Euro-Atlantic region viz. NATO. This is a mere regurgitation of an argument that Putin presented on 10th September 2014 to a meeting in the Kremlin. Lavrov's 'diplomatic' argument comes on the heels of Russia's low credibility on Ukraine at the UN meeting addressed by Obama and Yatsenyuk  on 24th September. Essentially Lavrov is trying to push the Minsk Protocol of 5th September 2014 which the following participants attended viz.

• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
• Russia's proxies in Eastern Ukraine DPR and LPR leadersAleksandr Zakharchenko and Ihor Plotnytskiv

No current EU representative, nor the current Ukrainian President, nor the current Ukrainian Prime Minister attended this meeting.

With the exception of Heidi Tagliavini (a Swiss diplomat), this was a meeting rubber-stamping Putin's agenda and attended by those who feared him (Kuchma), depended on his patronage (Mikhail Zurabov), and his Russian criminal cohorts disguised as 'leaders' in eastern Ukraine (Zakharchenko and Plotyntskiv).

 

Kuchma and the Yanukovych-Yushchenko 

Presidential elections of 2004

What this clip demonstrates, more than anything else, is that Putin carries a grudge for a very long time. He simply cannot forgive the people of Ukraine for daring to overthrow his candidate, Yanukovych, in the 2004 presidential elections in Ukraine. Even more galling for him is that in 2014 they did it for a second time! As Kuchma says in the clip, " ... Putin is a hard man!"

Notice, too, Putin's remarks that, "We should not let it become international practice for such disputes i.e. about the rigging of the 2004 elections by  his man Yanukovych, to be settled by mobs on the streets ..." And what about his criminal mobs that started the current war in eastern Ukraine?

And now the 'diplomatic' Lavrov has the galling effrontery to try and put the blame on NATO, the EU, and the US, for what Putin has started. Did NATO, the EU, and the US also precipitate Putin's invasion of Crimea? What has happened to the, "I'm protecting Russians" legitimation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine that has been forced down the throats of the unsuspecting Russian people?

This rather shrill Anti-Americanism of Putin, that has been steadily ramping up since the start of this Russian-Ukraine war, has now turned into a paranoid avalanche of 'conspiracy theories'. Even one of Putin's staunchest supporters, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, current vice-chairman of the Russian State Duma, recently announced on Russia's most popular TV prime-time talk show 'Time Will Tell' that;

• Russia is the target of a global plot orchestrated by the United States and involving fighters from the self-styled Islamic State (IS) and nationalist Ukrainian troops
• "America is everywhere, the West is everywhere, Nato is everywhere. Everything is organised against Russia,"
•  He also suggests that if the current stand-off with the West continues, the Kremlin will turn more and more to conspiracy theory as a "major tool" with which to manage its own people.

This 'major tool' is currently been handled rather deftly on the international front by Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov with his recent regurgitation of Putin's paranoia about NATO and the EU.
 
(to be continued)