Putin upping the confrontation stakes. Who will blink first.

Today, the 24th September 2014, merely seems to be confirming the fact that Putin's single mindedness in re-creating Novorossiya, irrespective of its consequences upon the Russian and Ukrainian peoples, knows no bounds.

Putin, in a  letter to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko dated 17th September, and seen by Robin Emmott of Reuters only yesterday, "... warned that even changing national legislation to prepare for the EU-Ukraine trade deal, known as the association agreement, would trigger an immediate response from Moscow."

Putin's anger 17th September

This is not the only threat emanating from the Kremlin. Of late the nuclear status of Russia has also been bandied about by Putin. On 1st September 2014, Esther Tanquintic-Misa reported that:

"Mr Putin warned Ukraine's defenders to lay easy on meddling with their affairs, lest Russia be triggered to unleash its most important weapon.
"I want to remind you that Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear nations," the Russian president said. "This is a reality, not just words."
Speaking at a youth forum, Mr Putin said Moscow does not have intentions to go into "large-scale conflicts." But a report by state-run Itar-Tass quoted him telling the same audience that Russia is "strengthening our nuclear deterrence forces and our armed forces" to make them more efficient and modernised."
Thus, "it is better not to come against Russia."

Meanwhile  in SOCHI, on September 19 (RIA Novosti) Medvedev tacitly supported Putin's nuclear stance by bemoaning the fact that,"European security has been a concern for NATO, who has been increasing its presence near Russia's borders, citing the need to better protect its allies, and suspending entirely its cooperation with Moscow." In light of Putin's nuclear threats, what does he expect NATO to do? Sit back and let Putin simply roll all over them? 

This nuclear threat of Putin has more recently tested both Canada and the US, as Russian fighter jets skirted close to their airspace on September 21st, and were confronted by Canadian and US fighter jets.

Russian Fighter Jets

Even more sinister, on the same day the Swedish Foreign Ministry said two Russian military aircraft had crossed into Swedish air space south of the Baltic Sea island of Oland. The ministry called it a "serious violation", to the extent that Sweden has said it has summoned the Russian ambassador over the incident.

All of this also has to be viewed against the backdrop of Russia building a military town in the Arctic, as reported by Ria Novosti on 8th September 2014, together with Putin boasting on the 10th September about the new developments of Russia's nuclear arsenal, as reported by Darya Korsunskaya.

Modular blocks used for the construction of Russia's military base in the Arctic have been delivered to Wrangel Island and Cape Schmidt.

In light of Putin's nuclear posturing,  Paul Roderick Gregory, in his article of the 23rd September 2014, correctly poses the following questions:

"Are the world’s two largest nuclear powers moving towards a missile-crisis-like confrontation because Russia is achieving or failing to achieve its objectives in Southeast Ukraine? Are Europe and the U.S. really hoping that a peace deal entered into by a weakened Ukraine will end Putin’s empire-restoration dream? Or would only effective Ukrainian resistance that denies Putin his Novorossiya head off such a catastrophe?". He further comments that," Merkel and Obama regrettably seem to be pushing Ukraine towards an unfavorable peace that gives Putin a permanently destabilized Ukraine blocked from the European Union and NATO. And the only price he [Putin] has had to pay is sanctions, which he expects to be lifted after a decent time has passed."

Meanwhile, at home, Putin is once again cracking the whip over his subservient Russian 'oligarchs'. One of Russias oldest billionaires has been whipped into toeing the Kremlin line over Ukraine. Like the false charges against Khodorkovsky before him, Vladimir Evtushenkov, who has always been loyal to the Putin government, has been falsely charged with money-laundering and placed under house arrest on the 7th September 2014.

Vladimir Evtushenkov

As Henry Meyer and Stephen Bierman report, "The arrest of one of Russia’s oldest billionaires is sending shivers down the backs of business owners already reeling from U.S. and European sanctions over President Vladimir Putin’s policies in Ukraine." But why should Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, argue that this arrest is “categorically against any comparisons” with the Yukos [Khodorkovsky] affair. And then threatens by phone that, “Any attempt to politicize the situation is not justified and not acceptable”?

Rosneft criminally stole Yungansk from Khodorkovsky on 22 December 2004 by purchasing it from Baikal Finance Group. The Baikal Finance Group was created on December 6, 2004 just two weeks before the Yuganskneftegaz auction, with a share capital of 10,000 rubles ($358 US). It was registered in a building that houses a vodka bar, a mobile phone shop, a tour operator agency and the offices of several small local companies, but no office of the Baikal Finance Group.

Yet, despite its obscurity, Baikal Finance Group was able to secure a credit of US $1.7 bn from the state-owned Sberbank savings bank as a down-payment for participating in the auction. Here is the interesting bit. On December 21, 2004, Russian presidentVladimir Putin admitted that he knew the owners of Baikal Finance Group. Putin did not disclose their names but noted that they were individuals with ‘many years of experience in the energy business’. And now, in 2014, Rosneft is once again trying to criminally gain control of Bashneft, the oil company of, you guessed it, Vladimir Evtushenkov. It would seem that Rosneft, like Putin (remember that ring of Mr. Kraft), is somewhat light-fingered. After all, Rosneft is currently trying to 'steal' $42 bn from the Russian Pensioners Pot.

Enter Khodorkovsky, who argues that "Rosneft, the world’s biggest traded oil company by output, needs Bashneft to prop up flagging production at older [oil] fields." This emergence of Khodorkovsky back onto the Russian political scene has been followed up by his launch of Open Russia on September 20th 2014.

Khodorkovsky September 2014

The aim of Open Russia is to unite pro-European Russians against Vladimir Putin,  as reported in The Guardian on Sunday 21 September 2014. “We are not simply Russian Europeans. We are patriots. And true patriots even during pitch-dark reactionary times should serve their country and their people.” Khodorkovsky’s supporters expressed hopes his project would raise awareness among Russians and help them see through state propaganda. These are, indeed, admirable aims.

However if, as he states, " Our immediate tasks: to provide a communications platform, to get the work of the expert community up and running, to create an educational module, and to get organisational contacts going between all interested groups.", what effect will Putin's cutting off of the Russian people from the internet have on his 'communications platform'? As the Guardian reported on Friday 19 September 2014, President Vladimir Putin will convene a meeting of his security council on Monday [21st September 2014].

It will discuss what steps Moscow might take to disconnect Russian citizens from the web "in an emergency", the Vedomosti newspaper reported. The goal would be to strengthen Russia's sovereignty in cyberspace. The proposals could also bring the domain .ru under state control, it suggested. All that is needed for Putin to say that an 'emergency' exists and that would rather put paid to Khodorkovsky's 'communication platform' from reaching the Russian people. For Putin, an 'emergency' is defined as military action or foreign-sponsored protests, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday, confirming earlier speculation in Russian media.

Russia is upping regulation of the Internet, which it sees as a Western-controlled security threat

What all of this indicates is that Putin seems to be stealthily placing Russia on a war footing. And in his sights he not only has Ukraine but also NATO and the EU. The little prods that he is also giving the US and Canada might not be as little as they first seemed. Indeed, he seems to be following that time-worn strategy of re-armament during times of economic crisis. That Russia is undergoing an economic crisis is even been admitted by Anatoly Chubais, the mastermind of Russia’s first privatization program in the 1990s, who recently stated that, "....Evtushenkov’s arrest will deepen the economic malaise at a time when Russia’s already “on the brink of recession and stagnation."

And so the re-armament of Russia begins, as reported by Prensa Latina News Agency,

"Moscow, Sep 10 (Prensa Latina) Russian President Vladimir Putin is leading a conference today to define the country''s weapons program for 2016 to 2025, confirmed the president''s press service. Sergei Ivanov, head of the Presidential Administration, the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin, Putin's adviser Andrey Belousov, federal ministers and representatives of the Defense Ministry have been invited to the meeting, according to the Kremlin." But where is Medvedev?

(to be continued)