The Ukrainian-Russian showdown has begun

The EU and the US, having used the diplomatic euphimism of  a Russian 'incursion' into Ukraine, instead of what really is happening viz. a Russion 'invasion', are finally biting the bullet and beginning to supply Ukraine with arms. “I have no right to disclose any specific country we reached that agreement with,” Ukrainian defence minister Valery Heletey said on Sunday [14th September], “but the fact is that those weapons are already on the way to us," the Ukrainian Unian news agency reports him as saying.“To stop Putin we need weapons,” he said. Also, Minister Siemoniak of Poland said that "the Kiev government was free to agree arms deals with whom it chooses, and Poland would comply if a request was made. If Ukraine expresses willingness to place an order, our defence industry will certainly be ready to comply.”

Furthermore, on this day, the 15th September 2014, 15 nations will begin the 'Rapid Trident 2014' exercises, comprising around 1300 soldiers, in the Yavoriv training centre inside of Ukraine and near it's border with Poland. Taking part in these exercises will be Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Canada, Georgia, Germany, Great Britain, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Norway, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the U.S.

It is not so much who the participants are but rather who is NOT participating. Conspicuously absent are NATO members France and Italy. Why?

In the case of Italy, as Putin has said, " [he has] high hopes that Italy will give a new impetus to the development of relations between Russia and the European Union" due to the fact that Italy is the upcoming rotating head of the European Union, as reported in Ria Novosti on 17th April 2014. Furthermore, he now has a new Italian ally in Federica Mogherini, the 41- year- old Italian who has been named the new EU's Foreign Policy Chief, only seven months after she was plucked from parliamentary obscurity in Rome and named Foreign Minister of her own country. Not only is she lacking in experience but is also known to be conspicuously soft on Russia, the same minister whose conciliatory comments on Russia’s possible annexation of eastern Ukraine were once given a welcome reception by Itar-Tass, the [Russian] state-run news agency. In a clear reference to Mogherini, Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaitė said that the EU must not pick someone who is “pro-Kremlin”, as reported by Thomas Wright. But Matteo Renzi, Italy's Prime Minister, was determined to get her appointed, contrary to EU appointing procedures.

Federica Mogherini, the 41-year-old Italian

Major problems for her include the confrontation with Russia over Ukraine, an issue also likely to involve Caneta at energy and Austria's Johannes Hahn, the new commissioner for the European Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, as reported in a Reuters article. Hopefully supplying arms to Ukraine will now be decisive in defeating Putin and his proxies and pushing them out of  Ukraine before she takes up her post on November 1st. If, however, Putin's 20,000 army on the border invades Ukraine then I dread to think what this typical Russian sympathiser EU Foreign Minister will do.

The really prickly question about Federica Mogherini is, "Did Matteo Renzi push her EU appointment on his own, or was Matteo Renzi himself pushed to get her appointed."  Renzi, as Joaquin Roy suggests " wanted to attack head-on Italy’s poor track record in European affairs in recent years, tarnished by the deplorable presence of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi in power and in opposition, a handicap that affected his predecessor Enrico Letta before him."

Matteo Renzi

Given the fact that  Matteo Renzi doggedly fought resistance from representatives of the Baltic states, amongst others, against her appointment, and that Renzi succeeded, was her appointment really to mollify Putin? Similarly, that the EU Association Pact that Ukraine signed, and that is being ratified today 16th September 2014, has been specifically watered down to satisfy Putin's excuse that the free-trade aspect of the pact should not immediately be instituted to prevent Russia from being flooded with cheap EU goods shipped via Ukraine. This change has led to Mr Poroshenko facing growing criticism in Ukraine for apparently caving in to pressure from Moscow and postponing implementation of the free trade deal with the EU.

Suffering Ukraine businesses want access to EU markets

Is all of this simply to allow Putin to save face, now that the real effects on the Russian economy and its people of the EU and US sanctions that are now in place has finally sunk in? Is this also why the Ukrainian Rada will, today, be discussing ," ...draft legislation aimed at ending the conflict in the east, including a special status for parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions .." Will this 'special' status mirror the previous autonomous status of Crimea before Russia recently invaded and annexed it? Is this also why the rather shaky ceasfire is still in place?

Shaky ceasefire in place. 16th September 2014

And suddenly, today (16/9/2014) at 11.52 UK time,the Ukrainian Rada has granted self-rule to the rebel-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine, as well as all rebel fighters been given an amnesty. The European and Ukrainian parliaments have also voted to ratify a major EU-Ukraine association agreement.

Has Putin won? 

( ... to be continued)