Give a man enough rope and he will hang himself

On Sunday 21st September, thousands of people marched in Moscow and other Russian cities, including St. Petersburg,  protesting Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.  People carrying Russian and Ukrainian flags chanted "No to war!" and "Stop lying!" Even more interesting was the chant, “The junta is in the Kremlin, not Kiev.” The latter refers to Russia’s contention that the ousting of Ukraine’s former Russia-friendly president was a coup.

A large column of protesters waving both Russian and Ukrainian flags marched in central Moscow
on September 21st.

Does this demonstration give us a hint that Putin has been given enough rope by the EU and the US, and has now begun to hang himself? Even more significant is that the right-wing Russian supporters of Putin could only muster a rather small demonstration supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Supporters of separatists in Ukraine held their own smaller rally in Moscow, 
where they ripped a Ukrainian flag

Let 's now view some of the critical events that, so far, have taken place in September.

• 05 September: Russian rebels in Ukraine say ceasefire has broken down
• 12 September: 4th round of sanctions come into effect against Russia
• 16 September:  Alina Kabayeva, 31, will become chairman of the board of National Media Group, which is controlled by Yury Kovalchuk.
•  17 September: Lavrov says "new" ceasefire in Ukraine holding after Russia helps the rebels with weapons and more than 1,000 Russian troops on 29th August. 
• 18 September: Russia moves 4000 troops to Crimea ahead of Ukraine-US meeting
• 18 September: “If I wanted, in two days I could have Russian troops not only in Kiev, but also in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw and Bucharest.”says Russian President Vladimir Putin
• 19 September: Minsk agreement on new measures to maintain ceasefire
•  21 September: Anti-war demonstrations in Moscow and other Russian cities
•  21 September: Leaked transcripts giving lie to Vladimir Putin’s claims that Russia isn’t fighting in Ukraine. Up to 80 Russian troops were killed in a skirmish there last month, according to information released by an opposition politician
• 21 September: Military victory for Ukraine out of the question says Poroshenko, because of the level of support the rebels received, and are still receiving, from Russia. 

To try and understand the Anti-war demonstrations of 21st September, we have to consider the time-frame for obtaining permission to hold a demonstration in Russia, and the conditions under which such a demonstration can be held. This demonstration was given the go-ahead by Moscow city authorities on the 11th September. Notice that this permission was given before the 4th round of sanctions came into effect!

The Russian opposition vs the State

More importantly, Mayorov outlined the purpose of the demonstration as, " .... to express and form public opinion about violations of human rights, laws, the constitution and international commitments of the Russian Federation and international legal norms and to demand their observation."

Given that Putin himself regards those who protest against himself and his kleptocratic Kremlin cabal as "enemies of the state", how could this demonstration, at this time, have been given the go-ahead?  On Wednesday, March 5, 2014, as several hundred Russian protesters chanted outside the imposing Defense Ministry, "No war! Hands off Ukraine", burly riot police quickly moved in to make arrests, dragging one young man with a “No war!” placard from the steps of a nearby chapel. Yet none of this happened during the recent Anti-war demonstration.

Moscow protestor in front of police September 22, 2014

Contrast this image with one from the Maidan protest.

Maidan protestor

Why are the Russian police so restrained? Is it because the EU is considering partially lifting its sanctions imposed on Russia sometime next week i.e. 30th September? Or is it because Putin's German sidekick, Angela Merkel, has begun to buckle in her stand on sanctions against Russia due to the fact that Europe's gas supply is closely linked with Ukraine's "and winter is nearing, so time is pressing ... for a solution to the long-running gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine ahead of a meeting of the two countries' energy ministers this week. ." Also, has Alina Kabayeva become Putin's 'ears and eyes' in the National Media Group of Kovaklchuk, watching Putin's back, so to speak, due to tensions against him arising within his kleptocratic clique?

Putin and Kabayeva in September 2014

In other words, has the boast of Putin that sanctions will not cripple the Russian economy taken something of a nosedive as banks in Russia, especially VTB, begin to feel the effects of the latest round of sanctions? Even Rosneft is now seeking help from state funds that would otherwise have come from western money. It has asked the government for $42 billion support from a fund earmarked for Russian pensions to help it weather the sanctions.Try to imagine any EU country, or the US, dipping its fingers into a pot of money earmarked for its pensioners. Yet without any moral conscience this is being considered in Putin's Russia. Are the Russian pensioners aware of this? Or will Alina Kabayeva, in her new role in the Russian media, ensure that this possible theft from Russia's pensioners is hidden from the Russian people. Even more sinister, is Gazprom on the verge of swallowing Rosneft?

And yet .... and yet .... thanks no doubt in large measure to Angela Merkel, the EU is considering partially (fully?) lifting the sanctions that have been imposed upon Russia for its military invasion of Ukraine, throwing in Crimea for good measure and, possibly, also parts of eastern Ukraine. The ghost of  Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia on 16 March 1939 is now hovering over Ukraine, except that the jackboots are now been worn by German businessmen in support of Putin's military jackboots. There is, truly, nothing new under the sun.

German businessmen over Ukraine

(to be continued)