Is Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy finally failing? (2 Feb 2015)

"On Saturday, Contact Group talks took place in Minsk. The former president of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, representative of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Heidi Tagliavini and Russian ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, as well as the envoys of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk republics, Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Deinego, attended the negotiations in the Belarusian capital." (Russian Sputnik News : Sat 31.01.2015)

These talks failed after 4 hours of intense negotiations, with each side blaming the other for this failure.

This Minsk meeting on Saturday 31.01.2015 follows on from a FAILED meeting that Putin's proxies wanted to have on Friday, as reported by  Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets (Reuters : Fri Jan 30, 2015). 

In fact,

"The press service for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Foreign Ministry said they had no information whether a Ukrainian envoy was traveling to Minsk for talks on Friday." (ibid Prentice and Zinets)

Furthermore, even the OSCE chairman Ivica Dacic declined to comment on Pushilin's statements that this Friday meeting had been set up. (ibid Prentice and Zinets)

This meeting NEVER happened, and was then superseded by the Saturday Minsk meeting that completely failed.                                                         

This tactic of Putin is an overt example of  'Maskirovka', the Russian military strategy of deception, involving techniques to surprise and deceive the enemy.

The critical elements of Putin's maskirovka includes:

• Surprise
• Kamufliazh - camouflage
• Demonstrativnye manevry - manoeuvres intended to deceive
• Skrytie - concealment
• Imitatsia - the use of decoys and military dummies
• Dezinformatsia - disinformation, a knowing attempt to deceive

 

However, this technique of Putin's, whilst effective when he annexed Crimea, set up his proxies in eastern Ukraine, imported arms into eastern Ukraine under the guise of 'humanitarian' aid, and continuously denies that Russian soldiers are fighting and dying alongside his proxies in eastern Ukraine, can no longer be sustained. As the saying goes,

 "You can fool all of the people some of the time

  Some of the people all of the time

  But not all of the people all of the time" 

This is perhaps best summed up by Sir Andrew Wood, former UK ambassador to Russia, during a recently held CNBC interview towards the end of Jan. 2015.

  

More critically however, given the recent avalanche of sophisticated Russia arms flowing across the border into eastern Ukraine, coupled with an horrendous increase in civilian casualties; President Barack Obama's administration in particular,

" ... is taking a new look at providing Ukrainian forces with defensive weapons and equipment in the face of a rebel offensive that shattered a five-month truce, the New York Times reported on Sunday." (Peter Cooney : Reuters : Feb. 2, 2015)

John Kerry

 This new attitude of the US follows on from,

" ... Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s foreign minister, [who] said a deeper “understanding” was growing in the US and EU that Ukraine needed high-tech gadgetry and training as much as weapons." (Christian Oliver: Financial Times : February 1, 2015)

Now that Obama is finally beginning to move towards supplying Ukraine with the sophisticated arms that it needs to counter the arms and Russian soldiers that, even as I write, is flowing across the border from Russia into eastern Ukraine; what will the EU do to support this effort of the US, especially in the face of,

" A Ukrainian separatist leader ordered a full military mobilization as the conflict with government forces escalated after peace talks failed to secure a truce.

The call-up in 10 days’ time seeks to increase the rebel army to as many as 100,000 people, Alexander Zakharchenko, head of the self-declared Donetsk republic, said Monday, according to the separatist-run DAN news service."? (Daryna Krasnolutska and Kateryna Choursina : Washington Post : Feb 02, 2015)

  

Pavlo Klimkin

Pavlo Klimkin further stated that,
 
“People who were very supportive of Russia’s unlawful action last year now find there is no facility to interact with the outside world, not even to travel with passports issued in Crimea. There is no possibility of investment. They are not treated as normal Russians . . . The situation in Crimea will change far earlier than anyone expects.” (ibid Christian Oliver) (my emphasis)
 
Meanwhile the casualties mount up as Putin's current and viscious military offensive in eastern Ukraine continues to accelerate.

What is hidden from both the world and the Russian people is the toll that Putin's current military offensive is having on the Russian soldiers fighting alongside his proxies in eastern Ukraine. Putin dare not reveal the number of body-bags containing  fallen Russian soldiers from eastern Ukraine that is being transported into Russia.

Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Saint Petersburg

As Ales Byalyatski, formerly nominated for the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought and the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize reports,

“While Moscow continues to deny any form of military intervention in the Ukrainian conflict, the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Saint Petersburg, despite multiple threats, continues to report on the growing numbers of dead soldiers arriving from Ukraine with no information on the circumstances or the place of their deaths." (Euromaidan Press : 1 Feb., 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's maskirovka in action against the Russian people itself.

(to be continued)

Is Putin preparing the Russian people for war? (31st January, 2015)

"Dear Sergey Yevgenyevich (Naryshkin), we were all sympathizing with you, when on January 26 at a news conference of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) you were refuting verbal assaults of PACE President Anne Brasseur, who accused Russia of ‘Crimea’s annexation'," Ivanov said, addressing Naryshkin on Wednesday morning.

Sergey Naryshkin

"I propose that as a form of a retaliatory step you give order to the Committee on Foreign Affairs to prepare a statement condemning the annexation of the German Democratic Republic by the Federative Republic of Germany in 1989," Ivanov said. "Moreover, unlike in Crimea, there was no nationwide referendum in GDR." (TASS : January 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Subsequently, "[a] relevant order was issued by State Duma speaker Sergey Naryshkin to the parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs as it was proposed earlier in the day by lawmaker Nikolay Ivanov" (ibid TASS)

This 'jaw dropping' proposal by Nikolai Ivanov, supported by Sergey Naryshkin, none other than the State Duma Speaker, simply beggars belief.

If this does not raise eyebrows then possibly maybe this will.

"A Russian senator has teamed up with a motley crew of celebrities to establish the Anti-Maidan, a movement that will aim at forestalling popular uprisings in the country, state news agency TASS reported Thursday.

Dmitry Sablin

"All street movements, all 'color revolutions' lead to bloodshed, and children, women and the elderly are those who primarily suffer," Dmitry Sablin, a member of the Federation Council and deputy head of a war veterans organization, said in comments carried by TASS. "We have come together so this does not happen." (Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber : The Moscow Times : Jan. 15 2015)

This movement includes, "the Night Wolves, a group of more than 5,000 bikers who love their country and have repeatedly manifested their support for President Vladimir Putin, who was famously pictured riding a Harley Davidson trike alongside the Surgeon in 2009." (ibid Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber) (my emphasis)

Dmitry Sablin, as a member of the Council of Federation Committee on Defense and Security, is in no doubt a member of the FSB, the new KGB.

And now the Cult of Personality of Putin is being launched under the guise of an educational project to help young people implement their creative potential.  The organization is called CET. The only requirement, said public relations manager Anastasia Melnik, is unconditional support for Putin. (Daniel Schearf :VOA : January 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

One must therefore assume that if these young people of CET see the death and destruction that Putin is causing in eastern Ukraine in particular that they will, nonetheless, simply agree with it.

The excuses that CET members will use is the very propaganda of Putin's media machine that is pumped out daily right into their living rooms. A prime example is this RT 'news' item, published on 29 Jan 2015, about the Russian bombers that recently caused commercial flights over the English Channel to be diverted.

What RT does NOT mention is that,

" .... the bombers did not file a flight plan, did not have their transponders switched on and "weren't talking to air traffic control". (BBC News : 30 January 2015) (my emphasis)

If we now add the failing economy of Russia to this rather heady mixture of 'Russian nationalist chest thumping'  in confronting NATO, the US, western democracy, and the EU

• by Putin,
• his Russian 'bikers', 
• the 'youth' of Russia, 
• his 'all pervasive' propaganda machine, and
• his political party that also now controls the Russian Duma

we have a very volatile mixture indeed.

Even one of his 'inner circle', Andrey Kostin, who runs VTB bank, one of the banks that Putin controls, is now screaming that the sanctions imposed upon Putin, his kleptocratic clique, and certain parts of the Russian economy is, in reality, an 'act of war' against Russia.

I will let Anton Siluanov, his Finance Minister, speak for himself.

These CNBC interviews were conducted shortly after the Brussels meeting of EU Foreign Ministers held on 29th January 2015, that extended the time of the EU sanctions that were imposed upon Putin and his kleptocratic clan, amongst others. As Siluanov says in this interview, "In Russia, life goes on". 

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos held in Switzerland 21 - 24 January 2015, had previously stated that,

Igor Shuvalov

" .... what he considers the West's attempts to oust Putin will only unite the nation further. "When a Russian feels any foreign pressure, he will never give up his leader," Shuvalov said. "Never. We will survive any hardship in the country — eat less food, use less electricity."(The Moscow Times : Jan. 25 2015) (my emphasis)

This, coming from one of the RICHEST men in the government.

We wait to see whether the Russian people will, indeed, "eat less food and use less electricity" as the rouble continues to slide, the price of oil continues to fall, and their salaries buy less and less. More critically, Putin's Russia is on the brink of an unemployment catastrophe that only a war can, in these circumstances, relieve.

(to be continued) 

Is Putin using his accelerating invasion of Ukraine to throw down the gauntlet to NATO and the US?

There is something quite arrogant that,

Rebels Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Deinego

"A representative of pro-Russian rebels said on Friday he was traveling to the Belarussian capital Minsk for talks with envoys from Kiev, Moscow and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a separatist news agency reported." (Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Fri Jan 30, 2015) (my emphasis)

even though,

OSCE chairman Ivica Dacic

"The press service for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Foreign Ministry said they had no information whether a Ukrainian envoy was traveling to Minsk for talks on Friday.


The OSCE, whose chairman Ivica Dacic said on Thursday he hoped new talks would be held in Minsk "as soon as possible," declined to comment on Pushilin's statements." (ibid Prentice and Zinets) (my emphasis)


This rather obscene diplomatic ploy by Putin, whilst the level of indiscriminate killing by his proxies in eastern Ukraine, as well as by his invading Russian soldiers, has rapidly accelerated as yet more arms and Russian soldiers pour across the border into Ukraine signifies, more than anything else, that Putin is trying to cover his naked invasion of Ukraine with a rather pathetic figleaf.

It is thus rather timely that,

"The Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has passed a resolution declaring Russia to be an aggressor state and the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics to be terrorist organizations." (UTR : Tuesday, 27 January 2015) (my emphasis)

Anna Gopko

Furthermore, as the Head of Ukraine's parliamentary committee on foreign affairs Anna Gopko said, quoting the text of the resolution,

""It is necessary to declare the Russian Federation to be an aggressor state that has fully supported terrorism and blocked the activities of the UN Security Council, putting international peace and security at threat,"  (ibid UTR) (my emphasis)

and that it is,

"It is necessary to limit the authorities of the Russian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe while Russia ignores the demands of the international democratic community," (ibid UTR) (my emphasis)

 Then there is the adoption of the conclusions of the EU's Foreign Affairs Council Meeting held in Brussels on the 29th January. The Trojan Horse conclusion, that has the fingerprints of the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini all over it, states that,

"..... Moreover, it calls on the High Representative and the Commission to present within a week a proposal on additional listings for decision at the FAC on February 9, 2015. The Council will continue to closely follow the situation on the ground and the current diplomatic efforts, and asks that further preparatory work by the Commission Services and the EEAS be undertaken on any appropriate action, aiming at ensuring a swift and comprehensive implementation of the Minsk agreements." (Council of the EU : 29/01/2015)

The key phrase here is, " on any appropriate action, aiming at ensuring a swift and comprehensive implementation of the Minsk agreements. ". Why? 

Because it seems rather co-incidental  that suddenly Putin's eastern Ukraine proxies are today headed for Minsk, ostensibly to try and rescusitate the original Minsk talks. 

It is therefore no wonder that the press service for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Foreign Ministry said that, 

"... they had no information whether a Ukrainian envoy was traveling to Minsk for talks on Friday.[i.e. today]" (ibid Prentice and Zinets) (my emphasis)

 

Yet again one is left to wonder who may have tipped off  Putin about that 'key' phrase before the Brussels meeting on the 29th January [i.e. yesterday], so that his obscene 'diplomatic' ploy in sending his proxies to Minsk could so swiftly be put into action. 

Let us just remind ourselves of what has recently transpired in eastern Ukraine.

Russian tanks heading for Ukraine

Mariupol bombing

Lituanian Foreign Secretary on events in Mariupol

Refugees fleeing from eastern Ukraine regions controlled by Putin's proxies

   

  
The Economist declares that,

"After several months of relative quiet in Ukraine and at home, [Putin] has raised the stakes. In Ukraine, he has shattered a fragile ceasefire, along with last September’s Minsk peace deal. The rebels are advancing and Mr Putin has called the Ukrainian Army a NATO foreign legion. At the same time, he is building up his defences at home by mobilising paramilitary brigades to fight potential Maidan-style protests. The latest violence in Ukraine is, in many ways, a sign of Mr Putin’s desperation." (The Economist : 30 January 2015) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately, as Gorbachev warns,

"...  the West's decision to respond to the violence by blaming Russia and cutting it off from access to US and European capital markets threatened to spiral into open warfare with dire consequences across the world.
"Where will that lead all of us? A Cold War is already being waged openly. What's next?" the 83-year-old Nobel peace prize winner asked.
"Unfortunately I cannot say for sure that a Cold War will not lead to a 'hot' one." (AFP : Thursday, 29 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

What also gives absolute credence to Gorbachev's statement is the fact that,

"Russia's top general said on Friday a strong nuclear arsenal will ensure military superiority over the West as Moscow forges ahead with a multi-billion dollar plan to modernize its forces by 2020". (Credit: Reuters/Aleksey Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin : Reuters : Fri Jan 30, 2015) (my emphasis)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov watch military exercises in Russia's Zabaykalsky region July 17, 2013.

 Is this why,

"Russian war planes have increasingly been spotted over Europe in recent months. Britain summoned the Russian ambassador on Thursday (29 January 2015) to complain about two Russian long-range bombers that flew over the English Channel, forcing British authorities to reroute civil aircraft." (ibid Reuters/Aleksey Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin)

Is all of this a sign of Putin's 'desperation', as the Economist contends? Is his 'desperation' also signified by his proxies in eastern Ukraine suddenly turning up in Minsk today (30 January 2015), one day after the EU's Foreign Affairs Council Meeting held in Brussels on the 29th January? Or is Putin really throwing down the gauntlet to NATO ..... more specifically ... to Obama.

(to be continued)

Will the EU foreign ministers sell out Ukraine once more? (29 January 2015)

"European Union foreign ministers will gather here in an emergency meeting to-day, 29th Jan. 2015, to discuss the EU’s response to an assault by Russian-backed rebels on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, EU Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini said on Twitter on Sunday." (Matthew Dalton And Laurence Norman : Wall Street Journal : Jan 27, 2015)

As Laurence Norman reports,

"The European Union could extend targeted sanctions on Russian officials and separatist leaders when foreign ministers meet Thursday but there is little momentum behind a push for broader measures at this stage, EU diplomats said." (Wall Street Journal : Jan 29, 2015)

And now Putin has a new young Greek ally in the EU. As reported by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber,

Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras

"Syriza, also known as the Coalition of the Radical Left, had 36.34 percent of the vote after the final ballots were tallied Monday. With an anti-austerity platform and a pledge to remain in the euro zone, the party — which has formed an unlikely coalition with the right-wing Independent Greeks party in order to gain an overall majority — has been a staunch opponent of EU sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea and the ongoing fighting in Ukraine. " (The Moscow Times : Jan. 26 2015 ) (my emphasis) 

Furthermore,

Alexis Tsipras & Valentina Matviyenko

"The leftist leader met with Russian officials in Moscow last May, including Valentina Matviyenko, chair of the Russian parliament's upper house who had served as Russia's ambassador to Greece in the late 1990s. According to Greek media, Tsipras used the occasion to chastise the EU's policy on Ukraine, denounce European sanctions against Moscow and support separatist referendums in eastern Ukraine that the West said were illegitimate" (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis) See also Anton Shekhovtsov.

What is interesting is that Putin draws his supporters in the EU from the far-left and the far-right, the 'fragrant' Mogherini and Alexis Tsipras being examples of the far-left, and Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale' and Hungary's 'Jobbik' Party examples of far-right EU parties.

Is it this support in the EU that is emboldening Putin to now openly 'invade' Ukraine in the hopes of creating a land-bridge between Crimea and Russia through the port of Mariupol?

Yesterday,

Joe Biden

"The White House gave a strong signal on Wednesday that it was considering further sanctions against Russia over its support for the separatists.

US Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko spoke on the phone after which the US condemned "Russian-backed separatists" and the "heavy toll that the Russian-backed offensive in the east was having on Ukraine's civilian population". (BBC News Europe  : 29 January 2015)

Francesco Guarascio

Furthermore,  Francesco Guarascio reports that,

"The EU has prepared a draft statement for the foreign ministers of its 28 members to agree to extend sanctions against Russia by six months, add new people to the sanctions list and prepare new measures." (Reuters : Wed Jan 28, 2015)

But that,

"A decision on further economic sanctions on Russia is likely to be left to EU leaders who next meet on Feb. 12." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

So whilst the White House will be 'putting its money where its mouth is' the EU will, yet again,

"have little momentum behind a push for broader measures at this stage, EU diplomats said." (ibid Wall Street Journal)

One has to sometimes wonder whether it would be a useful exercise if those EU foreign ministers and leaders that support lifting sanctions against Putin's economy, his kleptocratic Russian clan, 
 

 
and his proxies fighting in eastern Ukraine, should individualy appear on Ukrainian TV and simply tell the Ukrainian people that they will not support them in this their hour of need. 

How many of them will be willing to do this on Ukrainian TV? How many of them will simply be too afraid? Or even if the whole of todays EU foreign ministers meeting can be televised throughout the EU, including Ukraine?

We await to see what this closed meeting of EU foreign ministers will decide today ........ what they have in store for the people of Ukraine. 

(to be continued)

Will Obama and the West finally now stand up to Putin?

As predicted, the war between Ukraine and Russia has intensified over the last week-end, and we now have Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers beginning to target civilians.

"Grad rockets rained down on residential areas of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol on Saturday, killing at least 30 and wounding more than 90, according to local authorities.

The rockets, apparently fired by pro-Russia rebels, came on the day their leader announced an assault on the city, despite earlier denials from rebel authorities that they were responsible." (Shaun Walker in Donetsk : The Observer, Saturday 24 January 2015)

 And whilst these rockets were raining down on residential areas in Mariupol, Putin was telling students in St. Petersburg that,

“We often say: Ukrainian army, Ukrainian army. But who is really fighting [in eastern Ukraine]? There are official divisions of the armed forces but to a great extent there are so-called voluntary nationalist battalions. This is not even an army, it's a foreign legion. In this case it's a foreign NATO legion,” Putin said, speaking before university students in the city of St. Petersburg." (VoA : January 26, 2015)

Whilst NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed Putin's claim as "nonsense." (ibid VoA), the scary thing is that these students 'believe' him.

"Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who currently serves as president of the European Union, tweeted in a message, "Once again, appeasement encourages the aggressor to greater acts of violence. Time to step up our policy based on cold facts, not illusions." (ibid VoA) (my emphasis) Tusk is here referring to those European leaders who, until recently, talked of easing economic sanctions against Moscow.

We now wait to see just what the EU foreign  ministers will come up with at their meeting on Thursday with the current Ukrainian issue on their agenda.

(to be continued)

Putin's full-frontal invasion of Ukraine (24 Jan. 2015)

"Members of the U.S. House national security committees are warning that we may soon see Russia’s nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and they are calling on President Barack Obama to “acknowledge that Russian troops” inside Ukraine “represent an invasion” by Vladimir Putin’s government." (The Inquisitr : January 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

The rapidity with which events are now unfolding in both Russia and eastern Ukraine has caught many western governments on the hop. Finally it is being rather grudgingly acknowledged that Putin is AT WAR with Ukraine. The footdragging by so many members of the EU over the invasion of Ukraine by Putin's Russia, in the hope that Putin is a reasonable person who can be persuaded to

• stop supplying his proxies with weaponry
• stop sending trained Russian soldiers  into eastern Ukraine to reinfornce his proxies
• seal the border between Ukraine and Russia
• help to enforce a ceasefire between his proxies, their Russian soldier reinforcements, and the Ukrainian army
• attend proposed summits with Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande, to reach compromise agreements that could stop the escalating violence in eastern Ukraine; 

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS VANISHED INTO THIN AIR.

As Mstyslav Chernov reports,

"Signs emerged Friday of a major rebel offensive looming in eastern Ukraine, which has seen a surge in fighting and deadly attacks despite diplomatic efforts to craft a lasting peace deal.

One separatist leader said his pro-Russian rebels have launched a multi-pronged offensive and won't join further peace talks — but left unclear whether they would respect this week's agreement to pull back heavy weapons from the front line." (Deseret News (Associated Press) : Friday, Jan. 23 2015) (my emphasis)

"Since we're attacking, there is no sense to have peace talks now," Aleksandr Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Donetsk, said in a meeting with university students, according to his media office." (Victoria Butenko, Greg Botelho and Jason Hanna : CNN :
January 23, 2015)

"A top NATO official said the Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine have been beefed up and have pushed further west. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove said air defense and electronic warfare equipment have been detected in the area that, in the past, coincided with the incursion of Russian troops into Ukraine." (ibid Mstyslav Chernov) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin is rapidly ramping up his invasion of Ukraine, the silence coming from his major supporters in the EU is positively deafening. Where is the 'fragrant' Mogherini, or Walter Steinheimer, or Renzi, or Hollande? Why are their voices now so silent?

              Steinheimer                         Hollande                              Renzi                             Mogherini

Meanwhile, across the 'pond' in the US, as John T. Bennett reports,

Rep. Mike Turner

"Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, in a telephone interview Thursday evening with CongressWatch, wants Obama to "acknowledge that Russian troops" inside Ukraine "represent an invasion."

A member of the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, Turner says it's time for Obama to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin with "a military deterrent."

Administration officials "can make it clear that Russia's actions will come at a price," he said. "I think it needs to be a military deterrent." (Defense News : January 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

President Obama

However, like Steinheimer, Hollande, Renzi, and the 'fragrant' Mogherini, President Obama is also sitting on his hands in relation to the rapidly escalating and potentially cataclysmic events in eastern Ukraine. As  John T. Bennett further reports,

"Obama and his administration have come under fire from some congressional Republicans since his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. The members believe he said too little about Russia's action in Ukraine, and was generally too soft on Moscow." rather echoing the stand that has, for months, being taken by Putin's major supporters in the EU. (my emphasis)

If  Obama is sitting on his hands, watching whilst Putin, like Nero, is gleefully rubbing his hands together (with Patriarch Kirill at his side) whilst eastern Ukraine burns; 

Angela Merkel is offering Putin economic incentives that really beggars belief.

As Justin Huggler reports,

"[she] has reportedly offered Russia negotiations on a free trade agreement with the EU in exchange for a peace deal in Ukraine" (The Telegraph : 23 Jan 2015)

However, as Huggler further explains,

"The motivations behind Mrs Merkel’s offer may not be wholly altruistic. Germany has extensive trade links with Russia, and German businesses have suffered from the EU sanctions as well as Russian ones." (ibid Huggler) (my emphasis)

Ironically, as major leaders in the US and the EU stand on the sidelines whilst Putin is instituting a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 

Henry Meyer and Irina Reznik are reporting that members of Putin's own 'kleprocratic Kremlin' clan are pleading with him to end the conflict in Ukraine.

"[Putin is] irking some of his richest friends, too, by snubbing their pleas to end the conflict in Ukraine and ostracizing all but a handful of hardliners." (Bloomberg : 23 January, 2015)

Yevgeny Primakov

"Yevgeny Primakov, a former premier, foreign minister and spymaster, said Russia must avoid “self-isolation” over Ukraine and keep the door open to cooperation with the U.S. and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.....

Alexei Kudrin

Another longtime Putin ally, Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister who sits on the president’s Economic Council, an advisory body, said last month that Russia faces a “full-fledged” economic crisis if it doesn’t repair ties with the U.S. and Europe." (ibid Meyer and Reznik) (my emphasis)

Meyer and Reznik further report that,

"Putin is increasingly suspicious of men who owe their wealth to their ties to him and who are being hurt the most by U.S. and European sanctions, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid reprisal. ..... (echoes of what happened to Khodorkovsky?)

The core group around Putin is led by Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov, Foreign Intelligence Service chief Mikhail Fradkov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Markov." (my emphasis)

      Bortnikov (fmr KGB)        Patrushev (fmr KGB)             Fradkov (FSB)             Shoigu (Defence & FSB?)

Meyer and Reznik do not mention Patriarch Kirill as part of this core group because this former member of the KGB has to be publicly seen soley as the Patriarch of Russia. Kirill and Putin have to communicate with each other in the 'shadows', away from the prying eyes of anyone else.

Unfortunately for Merkel, this core group around Putin will simply not fall for her offer of 'free trade' negotiations. For this group the 'pride' of Russia is at stake. They simply cannot allow themselves to be defeated over Ukraine. For them the 'humiliation' of Russia will simply be too great, following so soon upon the heels after the collapse of the entire Soviet Union.

More than anything else, they are trying to pre-empt what will happen on the 16th February when the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, signed by Obama, comes into full effect.

"Ukraine is poised to receive significant military assistance from the US after President Barack Obama signed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, which experts say provides firm US backing for Kyiv's resistance to Russian interference." (Ruslan Sharipov for Southeast European Times in Kyiv : 2014-12-26) (my emphasis)

The question we now all have to ask ourselves is, "Are we on the brink of World War III?"

(to be continued)

Putin and Patriarch Kirill (Jan 23 2015)

Finally the world is beginning to realise that Ukraine is at war with Russia.

Doug Schoen

"Moscow won’t admit it, but Russia is at war with Ukraine.

It’s hard to draw any other conclusion from reports that Russian regular forces have moved into eastern Ukraine and are attacking Ukrainian military units amid a flare-up of violence this past week." (Doug Schoen : Forbes : 1/22/2015) (my emphasis)

 Doug Schoen further comments that,

"Russia can continue to feign ignorance, but this constitutes the most dangerous, deeply irresponsible escalation of violence and tensions in Ukraine since a little-observed ceasefire was signed in September. With his economy in shambles and increasingly politically isolated from West, Putin seems determined to bring Ukraine down with him." (ibid Forbes) (my emphasis)

As he says,

"We have a moral obligation, not to mention considerable political interests at stake, in ensuring that this does not happen and that Ukraine is allowed to chart a course of successful, peaceful, and prosperous development as an intact and independent country." (ibid Forbes) (my emphasis)

Donetsk airport has now fallen into rebel hands on the back of,

"...the arrival of thousands of professional Russian troops to reinforce the rebels. Mr Poroshenko said on Wednesday that 2,000 troops and 200 tanks crossed the border in recent days. He claimed a total of 9,000 Russian troops are [now] occupying Ukrainian territory in the Donbass." (Roland Oliphant, Moscow : The Telegraph: 22 Jan 2015)

As reported by Roman Goncharenko,

"Due to its location it is considered the "key" to the Donetsk metropolis, the heart of the Donbass coalfield. The airport is located a mere 10 kilometers (about 6 miles) from the city center, and it was recently refurbished for $870 million (753 million euros)........

Thanks to its new runway, it could accommodate virtually all types of aircraft. Due to its proximity to the separatist stronghold, the airport is of strategic importance to both sides." (Deutsche Welle [DW] : 20.01.2015) (my emphasis)

"If we give up Donetsk, the enemy will advance to Kyiv or Lviv," Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said recently. " (ibid Deutsche Welle [DW])

The fall of Donetsk airport over the past 24 hours has to be viewed against,

"[t]he self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic [telling] Russian network Life News that it had formed its own air force, Kyiv Post reported, adding that if the claim is accurate, Ukraine could confront Russia-made combat aircraft targeting its airspace." (Kukil Bora : International Business Times : January 20 2015) (my emphasis)

Could this boast about forming an air force, that emanated from "the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic", be the underlying reason why the battle for Donetsk airport has been so fierce? 

Will its new runway, which can easily be repaired, serve to accomodate Russian combat aircraft that will be flown by Russian pilots? 

All of these recent developments have put paid to any proposed "Normandy-style" meeting of Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin, that was to be scheduled to take place in the very near future. 

Yet again has Putin been let off the hook of having to be confronted by Poroshenko, Merkel, and Hollande by marionette Lavrov and the escalation of  his war with Ukraine.

Is Putin setting himself up for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine?

It can be no co-incidence that suddenly,

"Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, crossed Russia's shifting line between Church and politics in his first-ever address to the State Duma on Thursday, calling on lawmakers to ensure that traditional moral values are safeguarded in the country's legislation."? (Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber: Moscow Times : Jan. 22 2015)

"Kirill also called for the revival of the Cossacks, a quasi-militant group found predominantly in Russia and Ukraine, for the return of the "solidarity" of the Soviet era to modern Russia and for increased funding for Orthodox religious schools" (ibid  Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber) (my emphasis)

This is nothing more nor less than a call to 'war' by Patriarch Kirill, the former "Tobacco Metropolitan " and KGB agent, whose alleged KGB agent’s codename was "Mikhailov".  [Not for nothing was he called the "Tobacco Metropolitan" during the 1990's.] Kirill’s personal wealth was estimated to be $1.5 billion by sociologist Nikolai Mitrokhin in 2004, and at $4 billion by The Moscow News in 2006 (Wikipedia)

Is Patriarch Kirill now reinforcing Putin to begin an all-out invasion of Ukraine? Will the pulpits in Russia now be stirring up powerful Russian nationalist sentiments upon which Putin can ride his all-out invasion of Ukraine? 

Putin and Patriarch Kirill

(to be continued)

Time is working against Putin (Jan 22 2015)

Henry Blodget reported yesterday from the World Economic Forum in Davos that,

" ... a high-ranking Ukrainian official just shared the Ukrainian government's current view of its conflict with Russia:

• Fighting has resumed after a three-week ceasefire.
• The administration sees signs that Putin is escalating his forces, albeit in a limited way. The administration does not currently see Putin amassing force for a major invasion." 
• The Ukrainian government believes time is working against Putin. The combination of economic sanctions, plunging oil prices, and the backlash against Putin's aggression is putting Putin in an increasingly isolated position. Putin is responding by escalating his forces. (Business Insider UK : Jan. 21, 2015, 2:49 PM) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"Ukraine is frustrated with the lack of support from the West. " (ibid Henry Blodget) (my emphasis)

What is very significant, however, is that this high-ranking official,

"  ..... applauded support from China" [for Ukraine]. (ibid Henry Blodget) (my emphasis)

In a Bloomberg interview at the Davos Forum yesterday, Poroshenko succinctly summed up the current situation in eastern Ukraine, and called upon the West to be more supportive of Ukraine in this, its time of need.

As predicted in yesterday's blog entry,

"The most important of Lavrov's spanners to be thrown into tonight's meeting is his denial that Russian soldiers without identifiable insignia have been [recently] spotted in [the] Luhansk region. "

And today we learn that,

"Steinmeier said the agreement had been “difficult work” and the talks, which follow a fruitless round of negotiations last week, were “testing the patience of all involved”. (Associated Press in Berlin : the guardian.com, :  Thursday 22 January 2015 06.09) (my emphasis)

I am somewhat reminded of the fairy tale about Pinnochio, whose nose became longer the more lies he told. Lavrov is currently the Pinnochio marionette of Putin.

               Sergey Lavrov                                                Pinnochio

And what was this agreement that was reached at this meeting in Berlin yesterday? Only that the,

"Diplomats from Russia and Ukraine agreed on Wednesday a dividing line from where both sides should pull back their heavy weapons, just hours after separatist forces deployed more arms and manpower to an emerging flashpoint in eastern Ukraine." (ibid the guardian) (my emphasis)

For 'more manpower' read Russian soldiers!

What this means is that all the sophisticated Russian military equipment that has been streaming across into eastern Ukraine from Russia will not move back to Russia but will simply pull back to a dividing line in eastern Ukraine.

What Putin does NOT want is for the borders between Ukraine and Russia to be closed. So, even though his Russian soldiers and their armaments are willing to pull back to a dividing line in eastern Ukraine, they will still be able to move freely from Russia into Ukraine. Without the border being shut, Putin can maintain his strategy of a 'frozen conflict', a strategy that mirrors what he did in Abkhazia.

Poroshenko has seen through this 'ploy' of Putin. This is why he says that,

“But the solution is simple: stop supplying them weapons, ammunition , carry weapons and close the border. If you want to discuss something else, I think that you [Putin] do not support the peace “- protested Poroshenko." (Ukrainian Crisis: 21-1-2015)

For marionette Lavrov therefore to say that,

" Moscow believes the largely Russian-speaking eastern regions should remain within Ukraine", and that, "We hope the contacts to be held in the foreseeable future at various levels and in various formats will help move ahead in this direction," (Gabriela Baczynska : Reuters : Jan 21 2015) (my emphasis) is yet another of his 'diplomatic' Pinnochio statements. 

The 'border' issue is absolutely critical, and it is not co-incidental that Lithuania has similar concerns over its border with Russia.

Lithuanian Defence Minister Juozas Olekas

"Lithuania's defense ministry is advising its citizens how to react in case of war, reflecting jitters over neighboring Russia's intervention in Ukraine and a recent increase of reported airspace violations in the Baltic region. ..... Russia's increased military activity in the Baltic Sea area has prompted some officials to compare it to the Cold War. Part of Lithuania's border runs along the Russian Kaliningrad enclave, where Moscow has important military bases." (KLTV : Vilnius, Lithuania : Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

And with all this 'diplomatic' to-ing and fro-ing by marionette Lavrov, this is what Putin's proxies are doing in Donetsk.

(to be continued)