Time is working against Putin (Jan 22 2015)

Henry Blodget reported yesterday from the World Economic Forum in Davos that,

" ... a high-ranking Ukrainian official just shared the Ukrainian government's current view of its conflict with Russia:

• Fighting has resumed after a three-week ceasefire.
• The administration sees signs that Putin is escalating his forces, albeit in a limited way. The administration does not currently see Putin amassing force for a major invasion." 
• The Ukrainian government believes time is working against Putin. The combination of economic sanctions, plunging oil prices, and the backlash against Putin's aggression is putting Putin in an increasingly isolated position. Putin is responding by escalating his forces. (Business Insider UK : Jan. 21, 2015, 2:49 PM) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"Ukraine is frustrated with the lack of support from the West. " (ibid Henry Blodget) (my emphasis)

What is very significant, however, is that this high-ranking official,

"  ..... applauded support from China" [for Ukraine]. (ibid Henry Blodget) (my emphasis)

In a Bloomberg interview at the Davos Forum yesterday, Poroshenko succinctly summed up the current situation in eastern Ukraine, and called upon the West to be more supportive of Ukraine in this, its time of need.

As predicted in yesterday's blog entry,

"The most important of Lavrov's spanners to be thrown into tonight's meeting is his denial that Russian soldiers without identifiable insignia have been [recently] spotted in [the] Luhansk region. "

And today we learn that,

"Steinmeier said the agreement had been “difficult work” and the talks, which follow a fruitless round of negotiations last week, were “testing the patience of all involved”. (Associated Press in Berlin : the guardian.com, :  Thursday 22 January 2015 06.09) (my emphasis)

I am somewhat reminded of the fairy tale about Pinnochio, whose nose became longer the more lies he told. Lavrov is currently the Pinnochio marionette of Putin.

               Sergey Lavrov                                                Pinnochio

And what was this agreement that was reached at this meeting in Berlin yesterday? Only that the,

"Diplomats from Russia and Ukraine agreed on Wednesday a dividing line from where both sides should pull back their heavy weapons, just hours after separatist forces deployed more arms and manpower to an emerging flashpoint in eastern Ukraine." (ibid the guardian) (my emphasis)

For 'more manpower' read Russian soldiers!

What this means is that all the sophisticated Russian military equipment that has been streaming across into eastern Ukraine from Russia will not move back to Russia but will simply pull back to a dividing line in eastern Ukraine.

What Putin does NOT want is for the borders between Ukraine and Russia to be closed. So, even though his Russian soldiers and their armaments are willing to pull back to a dividing line in eastern Ukraine, they will still be able to move freely from Russia into Ukraine. Without the border being shut, Putin can maintain his strategy of a 'frozen conflict', a strategy that mirrors what he did in Abkhazia.

Poroshenko has seen through this 'ploy' of Putin. This is why he says that,

“But the solution is simple: stop supplying them weapons, ammunition , carry weapons and close the border. If you want to discuss something else, I think that you [Putin] do not support the peace “- protested Poroshenko." (Ukrainian Crisis: 21-1-2015)

For marionette Lavrov therefore to say that,

" Moscow believes the largely Russian-speaking eastern regions should remain within Ukraine", and that, "We hope the contacts to be held in the foreseeable future at various levels and in various formats will help move ahead in this direction," (Gabriela Baczynska : Reuters : Jan 21 2015) (my emphasis) is yet another of his 'diplomatic' Pinnochio statements. 

The 'border' issue is absolutely critical, and it is not co-incidental that Lithuania has similar concerns over its border with Russia.

Lithuanian Defence Minister Juozas Olekas

"Lithuania's defense ministry is advising its citizens how to react in case of war, reflecting jitters over neighboring Russia's intervention in Ukraine and a recent increase of reported airspace violations in the Baltic region. ..... Russia's increased military activity in the Baltic Sea area has prompted some officials to compare it to the Cold War. Part of Lithuania's border runs along the Russian Kaliningrad enclave, where Moscow has important military bases." (KLTV : Vilnius, Lithuania : Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

And with all this 'diplomatic' to-ing and fro-ing by marionette Lavrov, this is what Putin's proxies are doing in Donetsk.

(to be continued)