Putin has lit a dangerous fuse that cannot now be extinguished ....

I  ended yesterday's blog entry by saying that,

"Is  Putin about to push the world over the precipice into full-scale war in Europe?"

And overnight this prediction is coming perilously close to being fulfilled by Putin.

As reported this morning in the Mail Online by Robert Lea,

Vladimir Putin and Alexei Miller yesterday

"Overnight the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ordered the state energy giant Gazprom to cut supplies to and through Ukraine by around three-fifths amid accusations its neighbour has been siphoning off and stealing Russian gas."

"Russia cut gas exports to Europe by 60 per cent today, plunging the continent into an energy crisis 'within hours' as a dispute with Ukraine escalated.
This morning, gas companies in Ukraine said that Russia had completely cut off their supply. Six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas shipped via Ukraine today, in a sharp escalation of a struggle over energy that threatens Europe as winter sets in.
Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine." (15th Jan 2015)

And while Putin turns off the gas-taps, London South East reports that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said [yesterday] that some of its observers have been pulled out of eastern Ukraine, where violence has surged this week despite a ceasefire.
"Some member states have temporarily withdrawn their monitors from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions," OSCE spokesman Michael Bociurkiw said by telephone." (London South East : Thu, 15th Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile following on from the bombing of the bus yesterday by Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine and that killed 10 passengers,

"NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called on Russia to withdraw its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and use "all its influence" to make them observe a cease-fire agreement." (RFERL : January 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is even more disturbing is that,

"Ukrainian officials have stated that new high tech Russian weapons have been used for the first time in east Ukraine. According to Ukrainian army spokesmen, on 13 January insurgent forces deployed the ‘Buratino' multiple rocket launcher system in the latest wave of attacks on Donetsk International Airport." (Ukraine Today : Jan. 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is without a doubt that this weapon can only be operated by trained Russian soldiers and, together with the cutting off of gas supplies last night, signifies that Putin has completely thrown caution to the wind. This represents a serious tipping point from which Putin will be unable to extricate himself from. 

However, as E.L. reports,

" The EU has has also made the supply system a lot more resilient, putting taxpayers’ money into new interconnectors between countries dependent on Russian gas imports. This rewrites the rules. If supplies from the east are interrupted, the countries affected can import gas from elsewhere. As of December, Lithuania, once 100% dependent on Russian gas, is importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Norway. Ukraine’s gas imports from the west are rocketing." (E.L. : The Economist : Jan 12th 2015) (my emphasis)

Thus it is only Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey, that are experiencing a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine. Putin's cutting off of gas from the EU in 2006 and 2009 have backfired on him by making the E'U's supply system resilient to such actions of his.  

Putin can therefore no longer rely on 'blackmailing' the EU into lifting their sanctions against Russia, or on oil prices making a recovery.

Mike Smith speculates, however, that Putin,

" ... seem to be engaged in a risky gamble, apparently banking on European nations wavering on sanctions and oil prices making a recovery even as economists predict a deep recession." (Agence France Press [AFP] : 7.30 am (GMT) : 15 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

However Smith fails also to take into account the mind-set of Putin that is inextricably bound to his near pathological perception that he is not only fighting against Ukraine, but also against NATO; that Russia itself is being threatened by Ukraine now being in the camp of the EU, and his absolute and paranoid belief in the encircling encroachment of NATO along Russia's border.

Added to which, as Igor Shadkhan more than two years ago has pointed out,


“Stalin exterminated people out of fear because he was afraid of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power,” he said. “Putin is also scared. He’s a human being and has many reasons to be scared.” (Bloomberg : 2013-08-27)  (my emphasis)



  
The reaction of Ukraine to Putin switching off the gas to mainly former communist members of the old Warsaw Pact has precipitated the Ukrainian parliament today to,

" ... to refresh its front-line forces and resume partial conscription after a top security official warned that Russian forces backing separatist rebels had sharply increased military activity in the east." (Natalia Zinets: Reuters : Thu Jan 15, 2015)

 
 Furthermore, Oleksander Turchynov, secretary of the Ukrainian national defense council, has said that,

"There is an urgent need to strengthen the combat and mobilization readiness of our forces and other military forces up to a level which guarantees an adequate reaction to threats to national security from continuing Russian aggression," (ibid Natalia Zinets) (my emphasis)



Putin cannot stop these developments that his current actions have prompted. He has lit a fuse that, by the hour, is becoming more and more difficult to extinguish. 

(to be continued)