Putin's critical week of decisions ......

The flurry of diplomatic activity on Friday raised the hopes of many people that we may be entering the beginning of the end of the war between Ukraine and Russia. As Ian Traynor reported,

In a flurry of diplomatic activity German and Ukrainian leaders met in Berlin and the Latvian foreign minister headed to Kiev and Moscow. Momentum gathered behind a proposed summit in Kazakhstan next week between the Russian, Ukrainian and French presidents and the German chancellor." (The Guardian : Thursday 8 January 2015)"

Even the 'fragrant" Mogherini could not contain her excitement.

“The situation on the ground is slightly better than some months ago,” she said. “ There seems to be a different Russian attitude … I hope this is part of a new time, a new era.", she has said. (ibid The Guardian)"

But to-day is another day, and that false dawn of hope that was had yesterday rather seems to have evaporated.

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel received Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is in Berlin to hold informal talks focusing on bilateral cooperation and the crisis in Ukraine." (Ukraine Today (UT) :  Jan. 10, 2015) 

 Interestingly,

"Humanitarian aid from Kazakhstan has arrived to Ukraine, Tengrinews reports citing the press office of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Kazakhstan. It is planned to complete the shipment of 300 tons of cargo by January 10. " (Gyuzel Kamalova: Tengri News : 9 January 2015)

This must be somewhat sticking in the  craw of Putin since it is sending a strong message from Nazarbayev that he fully supports Ukraine.

Meanwhile Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister of Germany, has organised a meeting of the foreign ministers of  France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, who will meet in Berlin on Monday (January 12) to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk protocol, the German foreign ministry said on Friday." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

      Klimkin (Ukraine)              Fabius (France)            Lavrov (Russia)           Steinmeier (Germany)

"We want to do everything possible to allow political compromises that would help ease the situation in eastern Ukraine,” Steinmeier said in a written statement on Friday, following a teleconference with his Russian, Ukrainian and French counterparts, who he said have all accepted the invitation." (World Bulletin : 10 January 2015 Saturday) (my emphasis)

Now it is common knowledge that Steinmeier, unlike Merkel,  desperately wants to end the sanctions against Russia, and that the rift between the two of them over the issue of Ukraine is becoming more and more public.

After all Merkel, on the 7th January, is NOT calling for compromises but for Putin to,

" .... "[implement] all 12 points in the peace plan ......... before the European Union could consider easing sanctions against Russia." (ibid UT)

Steinmeier wants 'political compromises' whereas Merkel wants Putin to FULLY implement the Minsk Proposals.

Both Steinmeier and the 'fragarant' Mogherini, together with Hollande, can thus be seen to be leading the brigade in the EU to have the current sanctions against Putin's Russia withdrawn. 

And coming over the hill to support them we now have Mikhail Gorbachev.

"In an interview with the German weekly newsmagazine Der Spiegel, 83-year-old former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said the crisis in Ukraine could lead to large-scale war in Europe or even a nuclear war. "We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension."
The Nobel Peace Prize laureate decried the "loss of trust" between Russia and the West as "catastrophic," and said ties must be "defrosted." (Deutsche Welle (DW) : 09.01.2015)

Bear in mind that Gorbachev,

"defended the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula last year, but criticized the Russian leader's authoritarian style of leadership." (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

whilst at the same time chastising both Germany and the West for ostensibly being part of the problem.

• "The new Germany wants its hands in every pie. There seems to be a lot of people who want to be involved in a new division of Europe. (ibid DW)
• He said Western attempts to disempower Russian President Vladimir Putin and destabilize Russia were "very stupid and extremely dangerous." (ibid DW)

What this sudden outburst of Gorbachev may be telling us is that the economic situation inside of Putin's Russia may be more dire than we can imagine.

As  Sujata Rao reports,

"Russia's credit rating looks set to tumble into junk for the first time in more than a decade, a move that would exclude its bonds from a couple of high-profile indexes and may set off another wave of capital outflows.
The Fitch agency cut its rating on Russia to 'BBB minus' from 'BBB' on Friday, citing a significant deterioration in the country's economic outlook due to the slump in oil prices and falling value of the rouble." (LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters)) (my emphasis)

 
 
It is therefore no coincidence that,

"Poroshenko and Merkel are to meet in Paris today where world leaders are gathering for a freedom march following this weeks tragic event in France." (TASS : January 11)

“Petro Poroshenko and Angela Merkel have agreed that a brief meeting aimed at co-ordinating the efforts to settle the Donbass crisis will be held in Paris on January 11,” the press service said. “Both leaders will take part in a unity march initiated by French President Francois Hollande to remember victims of the terrorist attacks.” (ibid TASS)

The fact that this meeting will be taking place today, together with the fact that there will be a foreign minister's meeting in Berlin to-morrow that will include that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov, may be indicative of the fact that Putin's 'room for manoeuvre' is now vanishingly small.

Is it Gorbachev's fear that Putin may now 'lash out', and that this could

" .... lead to large-scale war in Europe or even a nuclear war. "We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension."? (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

Is this fear also causing Ukraine to have a new wave of mobilization?

And following on the heels of all this diplomatic 'flurry' in Europe, as reported by Sputnik News (11.01.2015),

"Obama and Cameron are set to meet for a working dinner on January 15, and hold talks in the Oval Office on January 16."

Furthermore,

"The meeting between Obama and Cameron is scheduled to take place at a time when Russian and German leaders will also be meeting in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana to look for a way out of the crisis in eastern Ukraine." (ibid Sputnik News) (my emphasis)

Cameron                                                      Obama

This coming week will be a week of 'critical' decisions about the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia.

Was Merkel correct when she told Obama by telephone that,

" ...  after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said. " (Peter Baker : The New York Times: March 3, 2014)

 Is Gorbachev referring to Putin when he says that,

"We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension." (ibid DW)

(to be continued)