Putin's desperate military build-up in eastern Ukraine 20 Jan 2015

The speed with which Putin is accelerating his invasion of Ukraine via the Donbas region has caught many of his supporters in the EU by surprise. This is most evident by the fact that, as Adrian Croft and Robin Emmott  reported yesterday,

"European Union foreign ministers said on Monday there were no grounds to lift economic sanctions against Russia despite conciliatory proposals from the EU's foreign policy chief as violence intensified in eastern Ukraine." (blog entry)

And this morning (20 Jan 2015) we learn from Victoria Butenko that,

 
"Russian military forces and equipment have entered Ukraine, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk says, according to a report from Ukraine's state-run media on Monday.

"He continued: "Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems, radio electronic intelligence systems are not sold at local Donetsk street markets. Only the Russian army and Defense Ministry have them." (CNN : 20 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

 This new wave of  Russian soldiers entering eastern Ukraine are supplementing the,

" ... 8,500 Russian regular troops [that Ukraine claims] are [already] helping the rebels .." (BBC News : 19 January 2015)

Russia now practically has the equivalent of an army division fighting in eastern Ukraine, commanded at least by a Russian a major general.

"Divisions perform major tactical operations for the corps and can conduct sustained battles and engagements. One division is made up of at least three maneuver brigades with between 10,000 and 20,000 soldiers, depending on the national army involved." (Michael Moran: CFR) (my emphasis)

Given that Putin has now placed himself firmly in the 'military' camp, with the Russian economy falling around his ears, can he handle both of these crises simultaneously ? 

Khodorkovsky is of the opinion that Putin cannot handle both of these crises simultaneously.

"Putin and his [kleptocratic] Kremlin clan cannot handle more than one crisis at a time ... Right now there are two [major] crises ... Ukraine and the Russian economy ..."

And right now conflicts are beginning to emerge between those concerned about the Russian economy, and those whose minds are, like Putin's, fixated on the war in eastern Ukraine.

German Gref

As German Gref, Sberbank's chairman and president, recently stated,

"But to be honest, we understand very little about what the government [read 'Putin'] will do [about the economy]."(Elena Holodny : Business Insider UK : Jan. 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

Thus, whilst Putin is pouring yet more Russian soldiers and military equipment across the border into eastern Ukraine, as reported by Agence France Press (AFP) 16 hours ago (current GMT: 11.10),

"Russia's battered economy will shrink by a far worse-than-expected 4.8 percent this year, as plunging oil prices add to fallout from the Ukraine crisis, the EBRD development bank forecast Monday." (Yahoo News : 20 Jan 2015)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"MOSCOW (AFP) – Faced with a crippling recession, Russian authorities are coming in for growing criticism from economic insiders concerned over a lack of clear policies to deal with the crisis." (Borneo Bulletin : Tuesday, 20 January 2015)

This vindicates Khodorkovsky's argument about Putin and his Kremlin cohorts not being able to handle more than one crisis at a time.

Where is the Obama Administration in all of this? Senator Chris Murphy (Dem) explains very clearly in a recent  CNN (20 Jan 2015) interview that,

• the US is not going to fight a proxy war against Russia inside eastern Ukraine
• the Ukrainian army is at a disadvantage against the Russian army
• the US needs to start sending more significant military assistance to Ukraine
• economic sanctions are not in the short run convincing Russia to pull back
• this [war] is not ending anytime soon

President Obama

Whilst President Obama will not immediately send 'significant military assistance' to Ukraine we can, however, expect him to fulfill his obligations of a law that he signed on Tuesday, December 16, 2014, and that provides for financial support for military aid for Ukraine. The bill directly mandates the President of the United States to implement this financial support for military aid for Ukraine within 60 days from the signing of the bill. Expect, therefore, a detailed executive decree to be announced to this effect around the 16 Feb 2015.

No doubt Putin himself is well aware that the clock is ticking down towards Poroshenko receiving sophisticated military equipment from the US.

He has a race against time before US military aid starts landing on Ukrainian soil.

This is why he is now desperately sending,

"Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems, radio electronic intelligence systems " across the border into eastern Ukraine. (ibid Victoria Butenko)

This morning  Kyiv Post editor Maxim Tucker wrote that,

Maxim Tucker

"Last week the European parliament passed a resolution stating that "there are now no objections or legal restrictions to prevent Member States from providing defensive arms to Ukraine" and that “the EU should explore ways to support the Ukrainian government in enhancing its defence capabilities and the protection of Ukraine’s external borders.” (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"Putin’s response was to raise the stakes yet again, gambling Europeans would rather get dragged into a proxy war than swallow the bitter pill of an economic downturn should fresh sanctions cause Russia to collapse entirely" (Kyiv Post : Jan. 20, 2015, 1:35 a.m.) (my emphasis)

Putin is not raising the stakes. Putin's current actions can be best described as that of a person who is very fast running out of options. He has painted himself into a corner, and his only response is to 'lash out'. He knows that the clock is ticking down towards either his capitulation or a Europe-wide war that is simply too ghastly to contemplate. That is why he is now very very dangerous.