Cornered Putin lashing out ...18 Jan 2015

In yesterday's blog entry I concluded by stating that,

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Medvedev said, quoting former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who made the remark in his first inauguration speech at the time of the Great Depression in 1933." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

A rather interesting remark that seems to hint at the fact that Medvedev may be envisaging a Great Russian Depression in the coming year.
Could it be this dire economic outlook for Russia that is forcing Putin into the militaristic camp?

And this morning it is reported that,

"Ukraine’s military repelled a wave of rebel assaults on Donetsk Airport yesterday, rushing in new troops and ammunition to the battle zone as the government prepares for a visit by neighboring Poland’s prime minister." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina : Bloomberg : 2015-01-18 : T10:01:21)

        

         DONETSK AIRPORT

Furthermore that,

Andriy Lysenko

"Russia is massing troops and armaments at the border with Ukraine and is testing new weapons in the conflict area, [Andriy] Lysenko said. Government soldiers were struggling to evacuate the wounded from the airport as a “fierce fight” resumed yesterday afternoon, the Security and Defense Council said on its website. " (ibid  Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina) (my emphasis)

Paul gregory rather accurately describes the current mind-set of Putin.

"According to the “cornered rat” theory, Vladimir Putin is more dangerous with his back to the wall. This theory says he is far from finished, despite sanctions, a collapsing economy, and international isolation.  We know for a fact that Putin does not back down when faced with adversity. He doubled down on repression against the mass demonstrations of December 2011. He expanded his hybrid war into east Ukraine despite world outrage over Crimean annexation." (The Blaze : Jan. 14, 2015 2:45pm) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"The “cornered rat” model has even been used in some [EU] Realpolitik circles (the 'fragrant' Mogherini, Hollande, Steinheimer, Renzi, to name but a few) to argue, that we should lighten up on Putin. We should make life easier for the rat in the corner before it bites. That is dead wrong: The correct approach is to take away the rat’s teeth." (ibid Paul Gregory)

       Mogherini                Hollande                 Steinheimer              Renzi

 However, that  'Realpolitic Circle' in the EU that were consistently calling for the sanctions against Russia to be removed are themselves currently caught up in a dilemma now that Putin has 

scuppered the Astana meeting,  turned off the Russian gas taps to eastern Europe,  and is massing his army on the Ukrainian border for a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

Their dilemma is compounded by the fact that Merkel and Poroshenko have recently concluded after a telephone conversation between them that,

"A gathering of the contact group should be followed by a meeting of French, German, Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers, Poroshenko said in a statement on his website after a phone talk with Merkel.

"The key pre-conditions for further peace talks are the closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the release of all hostages, according to the statement." (ibid  Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina) (my emphasis)

These events in Europe seemed to have thrust Mikhail Khodorkovsky further into the limelight.

In Vilnius yesterday he stated that,

"Back when I was in jail, I was writing that ... around 2014-15 will be the beginning of the inner crisis of the regime, when it will start making serious mistakes," said Khodorkovsky at a conference in Lithuania." (Reuters : Sat Jan 17, 2015  : 2:56am) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, in an very recent interview on CNN he said that he,

"wanted regime change in Russia .... I think that my country does not deserve a new era of authoritarianism ..."

Now that the cornered Putin is lashing out even more fiercely, is this a symptom of an escalating crisis within the 'kleptocratic inner cricle' of Putin that Khodorkovsky predicted whilst he was in prison?  If so, will Putin now "double down" on his repression of the Russian people as the economic crisis in Russia causes a further and dramatic decrease in their living standards?

Or will he now invade Ukraine to dramatically increase the nationalist fervour that he inspired amongst Russians when he invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. 

Putin has now put Russia on a war footing, primarily to deflect the anxieties of the Russian people away from the collapsing of their economy.  He has steadily been ramping up expenditure on his war machine, to the extent that it now consumes 30% of the Russian budget. 

As Alexei Kudrin warned,

Alexei Kudrin

"Russia plans to spend more than 20 trillion rubles by 2020 on modernizing its armed forces, but the dilemma is not new. Long before the collapse in oil prices, Siluanov’s predecessor, Alexei Kudrin, warned that plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on rearming were unaffordable." (Jason Bush : Reuters : Japan Times : 18 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

The fact that Putin is now demanding that the military budget be 'left intact'  is yet another indication that he will not back down, especially now that he is 'cornered'. Now, more than ever, Putin is a very dangerous man.

(to be continued)