Poroshenko's 15th January Astana summit in jeopardy

Merkel and Hollande have cast some doubt on whether the proposed summit meeting to be held in Astana on the 15th January will, in fact, take place.

Steffen Seibert

Merkel's spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said,

"I can't say yet if and when such a meeting will take place. Such a meeting only makes sense if we can make real progress."

"We have a very clear idea of what constitutes real progress. This would be first and foremost achieving the full implementation of the Minsk peace accord and a genuine and lasting ceasefire ..." (Andrew Callus : Reuters : Yahoo News : 5-1-2014) (my emphasis)

Hollande was slightly more optimistic, stating on France Inter radio that,

"I will go to Astana on the 15th of January on one condition, which is that there should be a possibility of making new progress. If it's just to meet and talk without making any actual advances then there's no point. But I think there will be progress." (ibid Andrew Callus) (my emphasis)

Merkel is doubtful whether Putin is willing to allow himself to be held to his Trojan 'Minsk Peace Protocols'. Hollande, on the other hand, is simply looking for some progress on the 'impasse' between Putin, Poroshenko, the EU, Canada, and the US, regarding the situation in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian Crimea.

It should be remembered that the 'follow up additions' to the Minsk Protocols calls for,

• To pull heavy weaponry 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) back on each side of the line of contact, creating a 30-kilometre (19 mi) buffer zone
• To ban offensive operations
• To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone
• To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone
• To set up an OSCE mission to monitor implementation of Minsk Protocol (Wikipedia)

In so many words, this is telling Putin to withdraw his army from eastern Ukraine, bearing in mind that Patriarch Kirill just recently mentioning 'historic Rus', which actually refers to,

".... the Medieval Kyivan Rus state, which incorporates parts of modern day Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. The state existed from the 9th Century to the 13th Century, before Moscow was even founded." (Ukraine Today : Jan. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

What, then, is really behind Merkel pouring 'cold water' over the proposed 'Normandy Group' summit meeting in Astana on the 15th January? 

Fear about the collapsing Russian economy, and what would be left in its wake if more sanctions against Putin's Russia should emerge if the proposed meeting in Astana is a complete FAILURE. 

And yesterday, 
 

"The US oil price fell below the symbolic threshold of $50 a barrel for the first time since April 2009, before finishing the day at $50.05.

The price of Brent crude also fell on Monday, dipping 6% to $53 a barrel." (BBC News : 5 January 2015 Last updated at 22:06)
  
Not only on the oil front, but also on the rouble front, prices are once again falling. Russian consumers are now beginning to experience emptying shelves in their supermarkets because of the current sanctions and the falling price of the rouble. (Will Stewart In Moscow for MailOnline : 5 January 2015)

Even Russia's super rich are beginning to feel the pinch as the rouble continues to fall.

"It looks like a glittering golden palace fit for a Russian tsar, and its appearance on the Moscow property market is perhaps a sign of the crisis facing the super-rich amdist the rouble's collapse" (ibid Will Stewart)

But it is not only Merkel who fears a collapse of the Putin's economy. Behind her is a long queue of EU members, INCLUDING HOLLANDE, calling for,

" .... an easing or lifting of the sanctions on Russia, which have hit its banks, energy industry and arms manufacturers, as well as targeting powerful figures close to Mr Putin. Politicians in Italy, Hungary and Slovakia are among those who want the sanctions eased." (BBC News : 5 January 2015)

Similarly, Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's vice-chancellor,

"- a centre-left politician like Mr Hollande - said the sanctions were aimed at making Russia negotiate to resolve the Ukraine conflict. But some "forces" in Europe and the US wanted sanctions to cripple Russia, which would "risk a conflagration".
"We want to help get the Ukraine conflict resolved, but not to push Russia onto its knees," he told Bild am Sonntag newspaper." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

 Interesting that he does not mention who these ," some "forces" in Europe" are. It would seem that these 'some forces' in Europe, together with the US, are willing to stand up for Ukraine, whilst others are more than willing to 'trample over Ukraine' for the sake of re-instating their trade with Putin's Russia.

As Alexander Motyl has said,

"Such countries as France and Germany, which have extensive economic relations with Russia, face a difficult moral choice. They must ask themselves whether Putin is evil or evil enough. If they decide his killing spree in eastern Ukraine is neither evil nor evil enough, they must explain -- to themselves and to the rest of the world -- just why they believe the destruction of Ukrainian, Russian, Malaysian, Dutch and other lives is not a form of evil behavior." (ibid Alexander Motyl)

The year 2015 will be the acid test of the EU, collectively, to show the world that it, indeed, does have a moral conscience.

(to be continued)