Putin is too afraid to attend a new 'Normandy format summit' (Jan 21 2015)

As Putin continues to pour Russian soldiers and arms across the Ukrainian border into eastern Ukraine, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has once again let the Putin-cat out of the bag,

"Lavrov emphasized that a lasting settlement in eastern Ukraine could be achieved only if the Ukrainian government fulfills its pledge to provide broad autonomy to the east and provide security guarantees to the rebels." (The Associated Press : Published Wednesday, January 21, 2015)

Exactly the same diplomatic ploy was used by Putin / Medvedev to wrest the teritories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia in 2008. This is what Medvedev, then President of Russia, said,

"As concerns South Ossetia – it’s our unambiguous, absolutely clear position – its about repelling direct military aggression." (Wikipedia)

          Abkhazia’s Raul Khadzhimba and Vladimir Putin 2014

In the case of Abkhazia; soon after their 'sham' elections to declare themselves a 'Republic',  

"..... [u]nder a treaty signed by Vladimir Putin and Abkhazia’s leader – both former KGB officers – a Russian commander will lead a new joint force of Russian and Abkhaz troops. Abkhazia also agreed to harmonise its foreign and defence policies with Moscow’" (Luke Harding and agencies : The Guardian, Tuesday 25 November 2014)

What was done in Abkhazia last year is identical to what Lavrov has stated should be done in the rebel-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine viz.

" .... to provide broad autonomy to the east and provide security guarantees to the rebels.", of course with Putin's Russia providing the security guarantees to the rebels ..."

However Ukraine is simply not Georgia. This is the big mistake that Putin has made. Flush with his success in annexing Crimea, Putin assumed that he could use the same "frozen conflict" tactic to start tearing Ukraine apart. The overthrow of Yanukovych gave Putin his raison d'etre for invading eastern Ukraine, and his attempting to implement the same type of 'frozen' confllict that he instituted in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

To this extent Putin is doing everything in his power to ensure that any proposal to reconstitute the failed 'Normandy format' meeting that was to take place in Astana on the 15th Jan 2015 will be similarly met with new demands that will lead to it being aborted.

Thus Lavrov is now 'proposing' that,

• restoring a previously agreed line of division in eastern Ukraine that was included in the Minsk proposals
• [h]e said nothing about the rebels giving up their territorial gains [even though] the separatist forces had seized 500 square kilometres (190 sq. miles) of territory since the division line was agreed.
• the Ukrainian government must fulfill its pledge to provide broad autonomy to the east

In other words, Putin wants an Abkhazia in eastern Ukraine that can then be 'legally' absorbed into Russia.

Lavrov's 'deafening' silence about about the rebels giving up their seized territory since the division line was agreed upon at the Minsk meeting in September 2014 is due, in no small part, to the fact that,

"A significant number of Russian soldiers without identifiable insignia have been spotted in Luhansk region," [Andriy] Lysenko told journalists.
"There is continued mass shelling of positions and a desire by rebels to expand the territory under their control."(Deutsche Welle [DW] : 21.01.2015)

(Deutsche Welle [DW] : 21.01.2015) 

Russian soldiers in Crimea

Of course, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has denied the claims of Andriy Lysenko that Russian soldiers have been directly involved in this mass shelling. This is somewhat similar to the denials that Putin gave about Russian soldiers being involved in the criminal invasion of Ukrainian Crimea, only for it to be later admitted that, "Yes .... the 'little green men' that invaded Crimea were, in fact, Russian soldiers." (cf. BBC News Europe : 11 March 2014)

Is it any wonder, then, that Angela Merkel,

" .... said on Wednesday she hoped a new round of talks with Ukraine and Russia in Berlin could help implement an elusive ceasefire in eastern Ukraine but warned against expecting too much, given another upsurge in the violence." (Reuters : Wed Jan 21, 2015)

Furthermore that, 

 "We don't want another meeting of presidents that yields no results," Merkel told a news conference. "Therefore I hope that today maybe some structures can be set up.
"But I'm not sure, I don't want to get hopes up too much," she added. "It is clear that the ceasefire is getting more and more fragile." (ibid Reuters)

"The Berlin talks, [with Foreign Ministers from Ukraine, France, Russia and Germany], and due to begin at 8 p.m. (20.00 GMT) [today], ...... will be the fourth such meeting hosted by Germany. The last round ended with a joint statement acknowledging they were not ready for the Astana summit, which had been tentatively scheduled for last Thursday."(Stephen Brown and Sabine Siebold : Mail Online : 21 January 2015)

         Pavlo Klimkin (U)  Laurent Fabius (F)   Sergey Lavrov (R) Walter Steinmeir (G)

Lavrov has already readied the spanners that he will throw into this meeting to, yet again, get Putin off the hook from having to attend any meeting between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin himself.

       Poroshenko                  Merkel                   Hollande               Putin

The most important of Lavrov's spanners to be thrown into tonight's meeting is his denial that Russian soldiers without identifiable insignia have been [recently] spotted in Luhansk region.

"I say every time: if you allege this so confidently, present the facts," Lavrov said before departing for Berlin for talks with his Ukrainian, French, and German counterparts. "Before demanding from us that we stop doing something, please present proof that we have done it." (ibid  Deutsche Welle)

Poroshenko presents evidence, and a report from a BBC reporter in Kiev.

 BBC World News : 21 Jan 2015 : 19.20 (BST)

For Lavrov to agree at this meeting to a new 'Normandy format' summit between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin is, as Merkel has said, "I don't want to get hopes up too much".

The most significant indicator that Putin is simply not interested in such a summit taking place is expressed by the fact that today Medvedev warned that,

"According to the agreement, the electricity is supplied to Ukraine and to the Crimean Federal District, i.e. to Russia. That's 1, and nothing else. Secondly: If our Ukrainian partners do not like Russia’s electricity prices, we can always raise them." (Unian Information Agency : 21.01.2015) (my emphasis)

This rather says it all.

(to be continued)