" Moscow is not exactly rushing to implement Article 4 of the Minsk Protocol that requires it to withdraw its forces from Ukraine and return the border with Russia to Ukrainian control."
Furthermore,
"He [Putin] wants to leverage Russia's military support for the separatists
to impose on Kiev a Bosnia-style constitutional arrangement that would
grant the "republics," a special status within Ukraine with veto power
over its security policy.Hence, he doubles down on military aid to the separatists, to push further against the line of control. Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a "constitutional reform." Any settlement ends this leverage." (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Mogherini, the European Union's foreign policy chief and Putin admirer, reported 2 hours ago (current time: BST: 10.00 am) that,"... [a]ny alleviation of EU sanctions against Russia will only happen if there are improvements on the ground in Ukraine and the return of violence there is not good news, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Monday.
Federica Mogherini told reporters in Brussels that Monday's meeting of EU foreign ministers would not take any decision on sanctions." (Reuters : Jan. 19 2015: )
As I stated in yesterday's blog,
"However, that 'Realpolitic Circle' in the EU that were consistently calling for the sanctions against Russia to be removed are themselves currently caught up in a dilemma now that Putin has scuppered the Astana meeting, turned off the Russian gas taps to eastern Europe, and is massing his army on the Ukrainian border for a full scale invasion of Ukraine."
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| Mogherini Hollande Steinmeister Renzi |
The 'fragrant' Mogherini's statement this morning that sanctions against Putin's Russia will only be alleviated if Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine 'lay down their arms', only seems to confirm the fact that she, herself, is caught up in a dilemma over what to do about Putin's ramping up of his war against Ukraine.
The tricky position of Putin's supporters in the EU is further compounded by the facts that,
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| Natalia Zinets |
- "Ukrainian troops recaptured almost all the territory of Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine they had lost to separatists in recent weeks.." (Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch : Reuters : Jan. 18, 2015, 3:20 PM)
- Vladimir Frolov says, " Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a "constitutional reform.", and
- Poroshenko and Merkel have recently stated that, "The key pre-conditions for further peace talks are the closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the release of all hostages .." ( : Bloomberg : 2015-01-18 : T10:01:21)
Putin will simply NOT back down, irrespective of the costs imposed upon both the Russian and Ukrainian peoples by his actions.
Highly indicative of the fact that he simply will not back down is his proposal, contained in a letter to Poroshenko, that was aired on the Russian television channel NTV, and that proposed,
"... urgent measures for the cessation of mutual shelling, and also the rapid withdrawal by the sides in the conflict of means of destruction with a calibre higher than 100 mm (4")". (ibid Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch) (my emphasis)
In other words, Putin is simply saying that this size gun is okay because it is a 100 mm (4") caliber gun
but this one is NOT because it exceeds 100mm (4"). It is a 5-Inch/54-caliber (Mk 45) lightweight gun
In other words, Putin does not want to de-escalate the fighting between the Ukrainian and Russian armies but merely wants 'smaller' guns to be used. There really is something rather obscene in this proposal of Putin.
Merkel and Poroshenko are thus quite right in their pre-conditions for further peace talks viz. "the
closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy
weaponry and the release of all hostages .." In their case, heavy weaponry includes Putin's 100mm guns.
Quite rightly, Poroshenko is treating this obscene proposal of Putin with the 'diplomatic' contempt that it deserves.
"A Poroshenko spokesman said the Ukrainian president would not comment on the letter this evening." (ibid Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch) (my emphasis)
News just in: ( Jan 19 2015 : 12.03 BST)
Adrian Croft and Robin Emmott have just reported that,
"European Union foreign ministers said on Monday there were no grounds to lift economic sanctions against Russia despite conciliatory proposals from the EU's foreign policy chief as violence intensified in eastern Ukraine.
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| Linas Linkevicius |
"I don't think
that we now should think how to re-engage. Russia should think how to
re-engage," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius told reporters
as he arrived for a meeting where Mogherini's paper was to be
discussed.
Mogherini's suggestion has gone down badly with some of the EU's more
hawkish states, such as Lithuania, which suggested it would send the
wrong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the EU's resolve
was cracking." (Reuters : Jan 19 2015)
It would seem that the wings of the 'fragrant' Mogherini, Putin's admirer, have been clipped this morning. This is also sending a very strong signal to Putin's EU supporters that they are no longer going to be allowed to occupy centre stage in determining how the EU sanctions against Russia are to be dealt with. This is particularly also a blow for Steinheimer, and indicates just how wide and un-bridgeable the gulf between himself and Merkel has become.
Even more critical, Putin's assumption that he could rely on his supporters in the EU to get those sanctions against Russia lifted has now completely evaporated.
DEMONSTRATION FOR PEACE THROUGHOUT UKRAINE 18 Jan 2015
If, yesterday, Putin was cornered, today's decision at the EU not to lift the sanctions against Russia has left him with practically no room for manouvre. If he was dangerous yesterday, today he is EXTREMELY dangerous.
(to be continued)
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