Putin firmly in the militaristic camp

Tomas Hirst

Tomas Hirst reported on 14 Jan 2015 that,

"Russia's economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev borrowed a quote from communist revolutionary Vladimir Lenin in his speech to the Gaidar Forum in Moscow today.

Alexei Ulyukayev

Ulyukayev cited the founder of the Soviet Union as he told guests at the economic summit that the era of peace is over to be "replaced by an era of relatively much more impulsive, spasmodic, disastrous, conflict", (Business Insider) (my emphasis)

In an interview with Bloomberg, (14 Jan 2015) Alexei Ulyukayev re-iterated the belief of Putin that Russia has enough economic resources to withstand both the fall in the price of oil, as well as the falling price of the rouble.

Unfortunately, Sberbank's chairman and president German Gref stated at the recent Gaidar Forum on Jan 14, that was also attended by Alexei Ulyukaye, that,

German Gref

"it was "obvious that the banking crisis will be enormous," citing the current average oil prices.

Elena Holodny

Sberbank's chairman isn't the first banker to seem worried about the industry. In mid-December, one banker declared it was "the end of the banking system" after the central bank raised rates to 17% in an effort to limit the ruble's devaluation and inflation risks." (Elena Holodny : Business Insider UK : Jan. 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

German Gref rather contradicts the 'upbeat' optimism of  Alexei Ulyukayev.

Furthermore, and perhaps even more worrying, is the fact that Gref said at the forum,

"But to be honest, we understand very little about what the government [read 'Putin'] will do." (ibid Elena Holodny) (my emphasis)

We can infer from this statement of Gref that the state of the Russian economy is of secondary importance for Putin. Of primary importance to Putin is the rapid military build-up of Russian forces and armaments in eastern Ukraine, and a concerted military push to confront the Ukrainian army.

As reported by Oliver Caroll,

" Heavy fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels has resumed with renewed savagery." (The Independent : Saturday 17 January 2015), especially around Donetsk airport.

  

 

 

Furthermore that,

"The long-term prospects of the conflict - fuelled by Russia but which is increasingly on taking on internal, civil dimensions - were underlined on Thursday by the order of President Poroshenko to institute three new waves of mobilisation to crush the rebels." (ibid Oliver Caroll) (my emphasis)

We can, at this stage, discern two distinct camps around Putin that are emerging. These are the militarists and the economists.

At this point in time it would seem as though Putin is firmly standing in the camp of the militarists, so much so that Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, said that,

        Ben Hodges

"Russia is working to develop within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine ...  [He also] told Reuters [that] an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in Ukraine for now." (Adrian Croft : Reuters : 17 Jan 2014) (my emphasis)

Like German Gref, Medvedev is also concerned about the state of the Russian economy. Medvedev told his deputies there should be regular meetings to discuss the looming economic crisis.

"The economic situation is quite problematic to say the least," he said. "Therefore, all of the members of the government must hold key meetings in the areas that they coordinate, as we have already agreed," Medvedev said. (Daniel J. Graeber : UPI : Jan. 12, 2015)

Even at the recent Gaidar Forum in Moscow he vowed that,

" ...... the government would not return to a Soviet-style mobilization economy and that it would keep the ruble a convertible currency. This will allow Russia to adapt to the new conditions and modernize its economy, something that it needs to do regardless of oil prices." ( Ivan Nechepurenko : Moscow Times : Jan. 14 2015)

Dmitry Medvedev delivers a speech as he attends the Gaidar Forum 2015 

Furthermore that,

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Medvedev said, quoting former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who made the remark in his first inauguration speech at the time of the Great Depression in 1933." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

A rather interesting remark that seems to hint at the fact that Medvedev may be envisaging a Great Russian Depression in the coming year.

Could it be this dire economic outlook for Russia that is forcing Putin into the militaristic camp?

(to be continued)