Is there a Putin breakthrough? The current diplomatic flurry ...

"Russia faces the 'perfect storm' as reserves vanish and derivatives flash default warnings.

So ran the heading in the Daily Telegraph (06 Jan 2015)

In his article Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote that,

"There are signs that Russia’s crisis may undermine President Vladimir’s Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union before it has got off the ground. Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko is already insisting that trade be carried out in US dollars, while Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev warned that the Russian crash poses a “major risk” to the new venture." (The Telegraph : 06 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

And now, as reported by Ian Traynor, we hear that,

"EU leaders have talked up the prospects of a breakthrough with President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine amid a divisive debate over whether to ease or lift European sanctions on Russia." 

Furthermore that,

"In a flurry of diplomatic activity German and Ukrainian leaders met in Berlin and the Latvian foreign minister headed to Kiev and Moscow. Momentum gathered behind a proposed summit in Kazakhstan next week between the Russian, Ukrainian and French presidents and the German chancellor." (The Guardian : Thursday 8 January 2015)

All this flurry of diplomatic activity even has the  'fragrant' Mogherini rather extremely excited.

“The situation on the ground is slightly better than some months ago,” she said. “ There seems to be a different Russian attitude … I hope this is part of a new time, a new era.", she has said. (ibid Ian Traynor)

But lest we begin to get our hopes up that the scheduled 15th January meeting between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin will take place, and that we will see the beginning of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine; 

it is interesting to note that Merkel is still slightly sceptical that Putin will begin to fully implement those (Trojan) Minsk Proposals, whilst Hollande, together with a long queue of Putin's supporters in the EU, simply want those sanctions against Russia to cease. The greatest fear of  Putin's EU supporters is that the possible collapse of the Russian economy will also cause unimaginable harm to the Euro and their individual economies, as well as to the economies of other EU states. Even more worrying for them is that if Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clan should fall from power, who will replace them?

Benjamin Bidder

In September of 2014 Benjamin Bidder, Moscow correspondent for the German news weekly Der Spiegel, concluded that,

" ... the democrats [in Russia] have little chance of replacing Putin and that his successor is likely to be worse. "It takes little fantasy to imagine Putin’s political end. He cannot be voted out of office like his friend Gerhard Schröder. Two scenarios are possible: either the current political elite in the Kremlin installs a successor or the Russians get rid of Putin and his minions…." (World Affairs : 22 September 2014)

But perhaps we should pay attention to what George Soros recently said regarding the current situation between Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the US.

As reported by Reuters (Jan 8 2015),

"Billionaire financier George Soros has urged the West to step up aid to Ukraine, outlining steps towards a $50 billion financing package that he said should be viewed as a bulwark against an increasingly aggressive Russia." 

And just recently,

"[Germany and Ukraine] announced on Wednesday the final approval of a nearly $600 million German loan, described by officials as "an important contribution" to rebuilding war-torn eastern Ukraine.

The loan, promised earlier by Merkel, was contingent on Kyiv's commitment to widespread economic reforms, some of which have already been enacted by Ukraine's new parliament." (VoA : January 07, 2015) (my emphasis)

George Soros further states that,

"Europe needs to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia," the Hungarian-born hedge fund magnate wrote (full article here). "Assisting Ukraine should also be considered as a defense expenditure by the European Union countries." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

The concern of Soros is one that is also echoed by Julia Tymoshenko.

"So, in 2015, the resolve that Europe and the United States have shown in opposing Putin’s designs must not only be maintained; it must be hardened. Yet, sadly, there have been signs of slackening Western commitment. The European Commission’s agreement in September to postpone full implementation of Ukraine’s association agreement with the European Union – the agreement that Ukrainians fought and died for in Kyiv last winter – signaled to Putin that cunning, force, and intimidation can win Western acquiescence in his subjugation of Ukraine and theft of Crimea." (Julia Tymoshenko : JBN : 7 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

There have been many 'false dawns' of a breathrough in stopping the war between Russia and Ukraine. Remember those Trojan Minsk Proposals of last September? The 'fragrant' Mogherini may be ecstatic with excitement but bear in mind that her excitement is that she can now openly aid Putin, her idol, in completely lifting the EU sanctions against him.

“ ..... limited but positive” signals from the Russians in recent weeks over the conflict in eastern Ukraine and raised the possibility of lifting EU sanctions “partially or fully” (ibid Ian Traynor)

In the case of the 'fragrant' Mogherini, I am somewhat reminded of the old saying,

"Oh! What a tangled web we weave

 When first we practice to deceive ..."

(to be continued)