2015 : Putin's and Poroshenko's New Year

The New Year festivities have come and gone, and today we awake wondering rather apprehensively what the coming year holds for us. Already there has been a death in eastern Ukraine. Vatican radio reports that,

" ... Ukraine has reported its first military death of 2015 in its conflict with pro-Russian separatists in the east. The announcement comes while Ukrainian authorities threaten to silence the country's biggest television channel for broadcasting a New Year's Eve concert featuring Russian artists." (Vatican Radio: 03/01/2015)

Meanwhile, Putin continues to 'Russify' Ukrainian Crimea having,

" ... signed a decree last Friday to recognize the validity of documents on military service in Ukraine for Russian nationals residing in Crimea and Sevastopol." (MOSCOW, January 2. /TASS/)

With a simple signature the Russian army has been boosted with the addition of  all Ukrainian-trained military personell residing in Ukrainian Crimea!

Besides the problems confronting him regarding the increasingly imploding Russian economy; Putin has yet another headache viz. the 'stillbirth' of his,

"Eurasian Economic Community and customs union, [which] began on Jan. 1, 2015. It's made up of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan." (cf  Mike Bird: Dec. 31, 2014: Business Insider)

Putin's economic woes have rapidly spilt over into Belarus, and Kazakhstan, the two other major partners in his attempt to create a Russian version of the EU. 

Already the Belarus President Lukashenko has,

"sacked his prime minister as the tightly-controlled ex-Soviet state struggles with the effects of Russia's economic crisis next door.

Lukashenko dismissed Mikhail Myasnikovich, who had served in his post since December 2010, and appointed his chief of staff Andrei Kobyakov as his new head of government, his administration said." (AFP :  Dec. 27, 2014)

In contrast to Lukashenko, President Poroshenko of Ukraine was upbeat in his New Year's Address to the Urainian people.

"Hard challenges made us stronger. As people we became undivided, turning into a much stronger political Ukrainian nation.
The year of 2015 will not be easy. But I believe that it will become a part of the history as a year of deep reforms that will open a path to a membership in the European Union. This is our dream that we will bring into life together.
Today I also wish all of us long awaited, long lasting peace.
Let the prophesy of Taras Shevchenko come true: "And on a renewed earth will be no enemy, but a son, and a mother, and people!" (Kyiv Post : Jan. 1, 2015)

But members of the EU will, themselves, be facing challenges from the steady growth of right-wing 'fascistic' parties stretching from the UK to Greece, and who are been ACTIVELY supported by Putin 'financially'.

As Jeremy Bender reports,

"The six parties linked to Russia are the UK's UK Independence Party (UKIP), France's National Front, Germany's National Democratic Party, Hungary's Jobbik, Greece's Golden Dawn, and Bulgaria's Attack. " (Business Insider UK : Dec 9, 2014)

Already Angela Merkel is very worried about the support that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining.

"Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative bloc is also worried about the rising support for AfD, which is backing the anti-Islamic rallies." ( Kalyan Kumar | January 3, 2015: International Business Times Australia)

It is therefore rather ironical that the Left SDP and the far- right parties in critical EU countries are soft-on-Putin (blog)  And this year of critical elections in EU countries stand to favour Putin at the expense of Ukraine.

2015 Elections in EU Countries

Estonia, Finland, Gibralter, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and the UK, are ALL having the equivalent of general elections. Greece and Poland are also having Presidential elections.
 
It should be borne in mind that the sanctions against Putin are soon coming up for renewal. And as reported in the Economist on October 8th 2014,

"On balance—and it is an exceptionally finely balanced call—we believe that the Russian government is right to doubt the resolve of the EU. We expect economic sanctions to be maintained at their current level until their scheduled expiry date at the end of July 2015 and then to be eased substantially."

Even more critical,

"There’s an election just coming up and it’s likely (not certain, but likely) that Syriza will win it. This is one of the new very definitely left of centre parties in Europe and they’ve quite clearly said that they’re just not going to put up with this austerity any more. That austerity being the polite name for the enforced deflation being imposed upon Greece." (Tim Worstall : Forbes : 1/01/2015) (my emphasis)

Worstall speculates that Greece may soon leave the Euro zone because,

" .... Greeks will say the debt has to be cut, the ECB (and Bundesbank)  (read Angela Merkel!) will insist that the course has to be kept, Greece will then repudiate the debt and the ECB will cut off funding to the Greek banks. At which point the only possibility for Greece is to bring back the drachma to recapitalise those banks and keep the economy open." (ibid Worstall)

This is the real dilemma facing the Euro in a few days time. Putin must, indeed be whooping it up whilst Poroshenko has to be worried what this will do to any 'peace' initiative regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine. The critical question now is,

"Will the January 15th Minsk talks actually take place? And, if so, will the parties to these 'peace' talks be able to reach conclusions that will solidify the current tenuous nature of the 'ceasefire'?

(to be continued.)