Embattled Putin

If there is anything to confirm the "hand in glove" relationship between German business and Putin's kleptocratic circle, then it is the sale by German RWE, one of Europe’s five leading electricity and gas companies, of its stake in oil and gas fields in the North Sea to one of Putin's oligarchs,  Mikhail Fridman (right).

As reported by Reuters,

"RWE on Monday finalized the sale of its oil and gas production unit DEA UK to Fridman's investment vehicle LetterOne, ending months of uncertainty over whether the 5.1 billion euro ($5.7 billion) deal would go ahead." (published in the Moscow Times : Mar. 05 2015)

The British Government, however,

" .... told Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman he had seven days to explain why he should be allowed to retain ownership of newly acquired oil and gas fields in the North Sea or face being forced to sell them." (Andrew Osborn and William James : Reuters : Wed Mar 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Angela Merkel (right),

" .... is warning Russia to live up to the Ukraine peace agreement it backed in Minsk last month or face tougher European Union sanctions .... ...

Merkel said that “if Minsk doesn’t work, then the member states and the European Commission are quite prepared to take tougher sanctions.” (Associated Press : March 4 : as reported inWashington Post) (my emphasis)

And whilst Merkel is threatening Putin with more sanctions, Matteo Renzi, Italian PM, is cosying up to Putin in Moscow.

As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov (Associated Press),

"Italy's prime minister visited Moscow on Thursday in a bid to repair ties that have been hurt by Russia-West tensions over Ukraine.
Most Western leaders have shunned Moscow as relations have plunged to their lowest point since the Cold War. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's (left) trip reflects his desire to improve bilateral economic ties, which have suffered because of the EU sanctions against Russia and Moscow's retaliatory moves." (Seattle Pi : Thursday, March 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Putin's beaming smile may, however, be rather short-lived.

 Gulgiz Dadashova, writes that,

“As part of a revitalized European energy and climate diplomacy, the EU will use all its foreign policy instruments to establish strategic energy partnerships with increasingly important producing and transit countries or regions such as Algeria and Turkey; Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan; the Middle East; Africa and other potential suppliers, ” new Union Energy Package said." (Eurasia Review : March 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

And as demand for Russian gas from the EU begins to drop now that winter is over, and as the Russian economy is teetering on the edge of a disastrous downward spiral if new sanctions against it are put into place; 

the Russian military informs us that,

" ...... 2,000 servicemen are taking part in "large-scale" air-defense exercises in southern Russia, Crimea, and the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. .....

In a statement, it said drills were taking place at 12 training grounds in Russia's Southern, North Caucasus, and Crimean federal districts, as well as at bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia." (RFERL : Friday, March 06, 2015) (my emphasis)

To consolidate monitoring of the Minsk2 ceasefire, the US and Britain proposed, at a closed door meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) (Sat Feb 28, 2015) on the situation in eastern Ukraine, that the OSCE,

" ...  extend its monitoring to include the entire Russia-Ukraine border and was asked what resources they needed for effective work." (PressTV : Sat Feb 28, 2015)

At which Putin's mouthpiece at the UN, Vitaly Churkin, (right) started spitting nails, arguing that,

“There are Minsk agreements in place, where the question of borders is explained. Why would this question be brought up at the UNSC? ” (RT : February 28, 2015)

The central reason for Churkin's apopletic rage lies in the fact that,


"Russia had deployed "thousands and thousands" of troops to neighboring Ukraine" and that, ""since December, Russia has transferred hundreds of pieces of military equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, rocket systems, heavy artillery,", according to Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. (Yahoo News (Agence France Presse) : March 4, 2015)
Furthermore,

"Alexander Vershbow (right), Nato's deputy secretary general, told a conference in Latvia: "Russian leaders are less and less able to conceal the fact that Russian soldiers are fighting - and dying - in large numbers in eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 5 March 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this why Churkin spat nails at the US-UK proposal at the UN Security Council on the 28th Feb., that the Russian-Ukrainian border be monitored by the OSCE?

Our attention should again be drawn to the strategic town of Mariupol as,

"Rebels battled government troops in the village of Shyrokyne, east of Mariupol, in the early hours (5 March 2015), Ukrainian interior ministry adviser Zoryan Shkiryak said. But he added that there had been no other serious fighting in the area." (ibid BBC News)

Putin, being the single-minded and driven person that he is, will simply not accept that his Alexander Dukin inspired dreams of "Novorossiya" are on the verge of beginning to evaporate.

• With an economy that is collapsing,
• assasinations taking place within spitting distance of the Kremlin, 
• the body-bag count of Russian soldiers from Ukraine increasing, 
• the US now openly advocating sending lethal arms to Ukraine, 
• and yet more sanctions against Russia hanging like a sword of Damocles over his head; 

is it any wonder that he is trying to intimidate the world by holding, ".... large-scale" air-defense exercises in southern Russia, Crimea, and the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. ..?"

(to be continued)

Putin using the 'ceasefire' to prepare for his offensive against Mariupol

We have to ask ourselves the following questions viz.

(1) "Is this current lull in the attacks of Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine a sign that the Minsk2 'ceasfire' is beginning to hold, and that the heavy weaponry of the rebel forces is, in fact, being pulled back?

Or is it, as Maria Tsvetkova (left) reports,

(2) "Kiev says the rebels are using the truce to regroup and pulling out heavy weaponry to prepare for more attacks on other areas of eastern Ukraine outside their area of control, including the government-held port city of Mariupol.


"There are signs the enemy is preparing for further offensives," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko (right) said on Sunday. "Everywhere where the militants show that they are withdrawing heavy weaponry, it is either simply to relocate (the armaments) where they are planning attacks or remove them only to put them back in place the next night," he told a briefing." (Reuters : Mon Mar 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

Without a doubt, Putin's supporters in the EU (and around the globe) will answer "yes" to question (1), and simply "ignore" question (2). 

Let us remind ourselves that the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left), in a paper she presented to the EU foreign ministers in mid January 2015, noted,

" .... a common, long-term aim of free trade from "Lisbon to Vladivostok" and said the EU might study expanding trade with Russia and its Eurasian Economic Union of ex-Soviet states. It was Ukraine's preference of free trade with the EU rather than with the EEU that sparked the confrontation." (Jan Strupczewski and Alastair Macdonald : Reuters : Wed Jan 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

However, one diplomat, from an eastern European country,

" ...  which counsels against the EU showing weakness toward Moscow, said the paper appeared to reflect an eagerness on the part of countries such as France and Mogherini's native Italy to set aside the dispute over Ukraine in order to revive profitable business with Russia." (ibid Jan Strupczewski and Alastair Macdonald) (my emphasis) 
 
In light of the international outcry over the assasination of Boris Nemtsov (right), and the near-death situation of the hunger-striking Ukrainian, Nadiya Savchenko, incarcerated in a Moscow jail; what do those Putin supporters in the EU now have to say about increasing pressure on Putin to stop his war with Ukraine? 

Added to which Kiyoshi Takenaka, reporting from Japan, states that, 

"No normalization of ties between Ukraine and Russia is likely unless the region of Crimea, now under Russian control, is returned to Kiev's sovereignty, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said on Tuesday.

Klimkin (left), on the second day of his two-day trip to Japan, also said the border between Ukraine and Russia needed to be completely closed to achieve any settlement to the armed conflict between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : Tue Mar 3, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, in light of Andriy Lysenko, Ukrainian military spokesman, reporting on Sunday that,

"There are signs the enemy is preparing for further offensives,"

the US military’s top-ranking officer, General Martin Dempsey (right), has called for Washington to arm Ukraine.

“I think we should absolutely consider lethal aid and it ought to be in the context of Nato allies because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s ultimate objective is to fracture Nato,” Dempsey told the Senate armed services committee." (Agence France-Presse in Washington :Tuesday 3 March 2015)

And now President Obama is,

"..... weighing a possible move to provide weapons to Kiev but some Nato members – including France and Germany – are opposed to arming Ukraine over fears it could further escalate the conflict in eastern Ukraine." (ibid Agence France-Presse in Washington) (my emphasis)

 Alexander Motyl (right) rather neatly sums up the 'false' assumptions of Merkel, Hollande, and those other EU states opposed to supplying Ukraine with arms.

" .... the argument against arms deliveries to Ukraine assumes that Putin will escalate regardless of the costs involved. [Putin's] .. . relentless, single-minded pursuit of ....... [trying to destroy Ukraine for the primary reason of protecting himself and his 'siloviki' from being correctly identified as the criminals that they are, under the propaganda umbrella of 'Novorossiya'] ......, regardless of the costs and benefits involved, is what we generally characterize as fanaticism or, possibly, as a psychological disorder.

In any case, such behavior is anything but rational in the realist sense of the term.Merkel and Hollande, together with the  Mogherini's and Putin supporters in the EU, 

" ... want to have it both ways - arguing for and against rationality in general and in the Russian context in particular." (Washington Post : March 3, 2015) (my emphasis)

In other words, they view Putin's as:

(1) 'rational', by invoking Russia’s close historical, cultural, and religious ties to Ukraine" but
(2) 'irrational', because they fear that arming Ukraine will make him escalate his war with Ukraine, regardless of the costs and benefits involved.

What they do not see is Putin as the criminal that he is, sitting at the apex of a pyramid of corruption and criminality that he has built up from his earlier days in the 1990's in St. Petersburg, as Karen Dawisha in her book, "Putin's Kleptocracy", has fully exposed.

For a more detailed presentation of "Putin's Kleptocracy by Karen Dawisha go to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGXAY0BxEV4 

(to be continued)

Putin and his weapon of 'fear' against Ukraine and the Russian opposition

As reported this morning by Carol Morello (left) of the Washington Post, John Kerry, US Secretary of State, and Sergei Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet foreign minister of Putin, are meeting in Geneva to discuss the Ukrainian crisis, amongst other topics.

As she says,

"Last week, Kerry accused officials in Moscow of lying “to my face” about the conflict raging in Ukraine between Russian-backed rebels and government troops. There was no warmth in the room when the two diplomats first met and shook hands. Neither smiled as they greeted each other, though Lavrov smiled briefly after the cameras were turned off." (Washington Post : March 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

And following on from Putin's warning last week about cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine;

"The European Commission has invited the Russian and Ukrainian energy ministers for talks in Brussels [today] to discuss gas supply problems." (Reuters (as reported in Yahoo News) : 2nd March, 2015)

Pavel Polityuk (left) reports, however, that,

"Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz once again charged Russian gas giant Gazprom with violating the terms of an EU-backed winter gas supply agreement, Ukrainian company said on Monday [2nd March]." (Reuters as reported in the Daily Mail : 2 March 2015) (my emphasis)

"In February, the agreement was violated by the Russian side. Gas for which we have paid in advance was not delivered in full last month. The deal is continuing to be violated this month," Naftogaz quoted its chief executive Andriy Kobolev (right) as saying." (ibid Pavel Polityuk) (my emphasis)

 As Valentyn Zemlyansky has explained,

 "All these threats by ... [Putin about cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine] are not particularly frightening for us, as the situation has radically changed compared to last autumn," said Zemlyansky, [former spokesman for Ukraine's gas firm Naftogaz]. "We've passed through the winter season - the mild weather really helped us, as well as decreased consumption by industry."

He estimated Ukraine would consume about 35 billion cubic meters of gas in 2015. That is not far out of line with what it produces itself and imports from Europe, although it will be important to build up reserves for next winter's peak." (Peter Graff and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : Thu Feb 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, it begins to appear as though Putin's threat about cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine is nothing more nor less than his attempt to increase the dire economic difficulties in which Ukraine finds itself in. Just as the Soviet Union was bankrupted when trying to counter Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) ('Star Wars'), so too is Putin trying to push Ukraine into bankruptcy by using his "gas supply weapon" and by keeping the war in eastern Ukraine going.

 
As the late Ronald Hilton (left) pointed out,

" .... in its efforts to keep up with the American defense build-up [in the eighties], the Soviet Union was compelled in the first half of the 1980s to raise the share of its defense spending from 22 percent to 27 percent of GDP, while it froze the production of civilian goods at 1980 levels."


This 'economic' dimension of Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy viz. to try and push Ukraine over the economic cliff into bankruptcy, is another critical factor in the continual breaking of the Minsk2 ceasefire by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

As Gleb Garanich reports, 
 

"In order to mislead OSCE representatives, the rebels are moving military equipment from the front line ... and bringing it back at night," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko (right) said.
"There are signs the enemy is preparing for further offensives," he said, naming as major targets government-held Mariupol, a strategic port city, and Artemivsk, north of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.
While there was no shelling in the night, rebels shelled government troop positions 34 times on Saturday, wounding eight Ukrainian soldiers, Lysenko said." (Reuters : Sun Mar 1) (my emphasis)



Even the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Ilkka Kanerva, admits to the refusal of Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers to allow the OSCE monitors to fully monitor their 'withdrawal' of heavy weaponry according to Minsk 2 proposals.


 As RFE/RL reports,

" .... the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Ilkka Kanerva (left) said the separatists continued to impose restrictions on the monitors' movements.
Kanerva said in a statement that he was "profoundly disturbed" by the rebels' "continuing refusal to grant unlimited, safe access to OSCE monitors on the ground in Ukraine and their violations of the Minsk Package of Measures." (VoA : February 25, 201)(my emphasis)

Perhaps most indicative of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers preparing for further offensives against Mariupol and Artemivsk is the fact that Kanerva has informed us that,

" ..... [the] rejection by Russia of an enlarged monitoring mission on Ukrainian-Russian border runs counter to international community's efforts." (Ukraine Today : Feb. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin threatening to 'turn off the gas taps' to Ukraine and, by implication, the EU, together with the brutal assasination of Boris Nemtsov a few hundred metres from the Kremlin, are both indications that he is ratcheting up the weapon of 'fear' in his armoury.

It is therefore no coincidence that,

"The night following the murder of Nemtsov, his papers, writings and computer hard drives were confiscated in a search performed by police in his flat on Malaya Ordynka street." (Wikipedia)(my emphasis)

What is Putin trying to conceal from the Russian public and the world?

However, the international community is now well aware that Nemtsov was gathering incontrovertible evidence about Putin's central role in arming his proxies in eastern Ukraine, as well as supporting them with thousands of Russian soldiers that are fighting and dying alongside them.

And finally John Kerry, US Secretary of State has publicly called Putin and his kleptocratic clique  'liars', no doubt to the utter astonishment of Lavrov and, perhaps, even Putin himself.

We now wait to see how those ardent supporters of Putin within the EU will respond to these events of the last few days.

As the late Harold Wilson once said at a party conference in 1960,

"Forty-eight hours is a long time in politics".

(to be continued)