Putin's last stand?

Aljazeera reports that the,

"Arrival of 300 US Army soldiers to train Ukraine's national guard sparks warnings by Russia of escalation in conflict. ......
.....
The troops, from the Italy-based 173rd Airborne Brigade, are to spend six months training a total of about 900 Ukrainian national guardsmen." (Aljazeera : 18 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)

BBC News also reports that,

"Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (left) warned that the move "could seriously destabilise the situation" in Ukraine.

He said the US military presence "is a long way from helping towards a settlement of the conflict", Russia's RIA Novosti news agency reported." (BBC News : 17 April 2015)

The absolute audacity of Alexander Lukashevich (right), a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, saying that,

"....the US troops' presence violated the section of the Minsk agreement that banned foreign "armed formations" from Ukraine." (ibid Aljazeera) (my emphasis)

simply beggars belief.

Putin's Russian troops have been killed and captured by the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine, and secretly buried in Russia, since the start of his invasion of eastern Ukraine. The evidence for this is simply overwhelming.

Yet Robert Garver, reporting on Putin's marathon choreographed TV phone-in last Thursday, reported Putin as categorically stating that, 

“There are no Russian troops in Ukraine,” [Putin] said flatly, when asked by a caller.
War between Russia and Ukraine “is impossible,” he said, calling the nations “brotherly.”(The Fiscal Times : April 16, 2015) (my emphasis)

Many have, over the last few weeks, warned against the impending invasion of Mariupol by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies in eastern Ukraine.

Putin has stepped-up his supply of military equipment and Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine over the last few weeks.

Why, therefore, does he persist in simply blatantly lying to the world about Russian troops and armaments in eastern Ukraine?

In a recent BBC interview of Aleksandr Zakharchenko, (left : pictured pointing at Ukrainian) the self-styled 'leader' of Putin's proxies in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, gives us the answer.

"...the war will start again, and the war will continue until Kiev can see its losing and will again request peace and another Minsk agreement. There could be a Minsk5, a Minsk6, ..... [to] infinity..." (BBC News : 18 April, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

And exactly against who is Kiev going to lose? Against his motley collection of rebels, or against the Russian army.

Had it not been for the support that Zakharchenko and his motley collection of rebels have been receiving viz. Russian generals, trained Russian soldiers, and sophisticated Russian military equipment, sent by Putin to eastern Ukraine, the so-called "Republic of Donetsk" would now simply be a faint memory.


Instead, Putin continues to believe that he can delude the rest of the world by simply repeating, over and over again, his blatant lie that there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

As stated in an ealier blog-entry, Putin simply has "no exit strategy" from the "tangled web of deceit" that he has spun around himself regarding his war with Ukraine.

His desperate attempt to paint the US and the EU, together with Canada and Australia, as the villains who are totally responsible for his current war with Ukraine, no longer holds any water.

Putin, his kleptocratic 'siloviki', together with the full might of his propaganda machine, simply cannot now live without a final push against Mariupol in his war with Ukraine.

For him, there is simply too much at stake.

(to be continued)

Is Putin becoming entrapped in his own "tangled web" that his deceptions is weaving?

Yesterday Putin reacted towards the news about Canada sending 200 military trainers to Ukraine for both the international and home audiences by stating that,

"In order to contain Russia a full selection of methods is being used from attempted political isolation and economic pressure to a wide-scale information war and special services methods.....
But such tricks do not work with Russia, have never worked before, and will not work in the future" (Reuters video (The Globe and Mail : Wednesday, Apr. 15 2015)

Responding to Putin's outburst, the Canadian Defence Minister, Jason Kenney (right), stated that,

"...150 to 200 Canadian troops will be stationed 1300 kilometres away from the zone of conflict ...We are possibly as far removed from the conflict [as is possible]"

Furthermore that,

"Confrontation in this area [eastern Ukraine] is all coming from Vladimir Putin's illegal aggression. It is critically important that the world, particularly NATO allies, send a strong message to Vladimir Putin of deterrence that his agression will not be rewarded ...." (ibid The Globe and Mail) (my emphasis)

And just as Putin is once again blaming the west for his annexing of Ukrainian Crimea, and for the war between Russia and Ukraine that is still raging in eastern Ukraine,

"..Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) said a drive by the United States and its allies to bring Kiev closer to the West was a threat to Moscow and had forced it to react.

"The United States and its allies have crossed all possible lines in their drive to bring Kiev into their orbit. That could not have failed to trigger our reaction," he told an annual security conference in Moscow. (Gabriela Baczynska : Reuters :Thu Apr 16, 2015)

And whilst Putin's propaganda war against the west, aimed specifically at the US, is beginning to reach a crescendo, we learn that on his TV phone in with the Russian people today, Elizabeth Piper (right) reports that,

"President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russian military forces were not in Ukraine, denying allegations by Ukraine and Western countries that Moscow is providing troops and support for pro-Russian rebels fighting in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : Thu Apr 16, 2015)

There is an overwhelming reason why Putin's propaganda machine is going full blast in its attack against the US and its western allies namely, the failing Russian economy.

In today's marathon TV phone in with the Russian people, Putin's advisors primed him beforehand to blame all their growing economic hardships on the US and its allies in the west.

As the BBC's Sarah Rainsford reports today from Moscow,

".. such phone-ins are highly choreographed but do reveal Russians' concerns. Russians' real incomes have fallen this year for the first time since Mr Putin came to power." (BBC News : 16 April, 2015)

Putin desperately tried to put a gloss on the current suffering of the Russian people because of  his single-minded obsession with restoring the vanished "Imperial Russian Empire", irrespective of the costs that this is having on the Russian people, the lives of Russian soldiers, and particularly the Ukrainian people.

As Sarah Rainsford further reports,
 
"Mr Putin said the Russian economy would take about two years to bounce back from recession, or less as the rouble's value was rising again.

 

He said there were encouraging signs that Russian agriculture was growing and replacing imports of Western food.

However, a dairy farmer introduced as "John - a Russian citizen" (left) grilled Mr Putin over the hardship faced by farmers. 

"You say everything is going well - sorry, that's not true," the farmer said. "I have five children... I need some assurance about their future in Russia. Do you believe the statistics or are they lying?" he asked in English-accented Russian...." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Putin's reply rather says it all.

"I don't have reason to disbelieve the statistics," he said, adding that the government would have to increase subsidies for farmers." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

The magician Houdini (right) was renowned for his daring exploits in escaping from near impossible situations.

Putin is no 'Houdini'

As he, and his 'siloviki' circle of advisors, continue to spin his 'fantastical' tales about the US and its western allies being the sole cause of his invasion of, and annexing of, Ukrainian Crimea, his current war with Ukraine, and the increasing suffering of the Russian people; the tangled web that his deceits is weaving is slowly but surely beginning to 'entrap him' in an ever increasing downward spiral of  irrational actions. 

(to be continued)

Merkel's 'vacillations' aiding Putin in breaking Minsk2 'ceasefire'

At the Munich Security Conference held on the 7th February, 2015, Angela Merkel (left) stated that,

"I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily."(CBCNews : Feb 26, 2015)

And to-day, despite Angela Merkel's belief that 'diplomacy' is the only route to ensuring that the Minsk2 'ceasefire' is fully implemented, we learn that,

"There has been a surge in violence between government troops and pro-Russian rebels in east Ukraine, despite diplomatic efforts to enforce a truce....

A BBC team witnessed exchanges of fire during a ceasefire monitoring mission.

We were told by the pro-Russian rebels, who guided us, and other journalists, that things were quiet in the village of Shyrokyne, near the strategic port city of Mariupol.

But within minutes of arriving, there are loud explosions. A man lies seriously wounded on the ground. He's bleeding badly from the head. We learn he's called Andrei and is a journalist working for Russia's military TV channel." (BBC News : 14 April 2015) (my emphasis)

As Inna Varenytsia (right) reported 5 hours ago (current GMT : 9.45),

"The U.S. State Department supports the steps taken in Berlin, spokeswoman Marie Harf said Tuesday, but she also voiced concern about the ongoing fighting.

...

"The Russian-backed separatists continue to take aggressive action in Ukraine," she said. "And the Russian-backed separatists continue to stall Minsk implementation." (Associated Press (Yahoo News): 15 April, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet foreign ministser, Sergei Lavrov (left), simply went through the motions of attending Monday's meeting in Berlin since,

"Heavy shelling was heard in Donetsk late Monday evening and in the early hours on Tuesday. Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told a televised briefing that six troops were killed and 12 wounded in a 24-hour period, while rebels reported one fighter dead and five wounded in the overnight clashes." (ibid Inna Varenytsia) (my emphasis)

 Meanwhile Canada is sending 200 military trainers,

"...to help Ukraine's military in its struggle against Russian-backed rebels, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Tuesday, following months of requests for assistance from Ukraine's government.(right, with Canadian Chief of Defence Staff Tom Lawson) " (CBC News : April 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

We need to ask the question,

"Whilst the Minsk2 'ceasefire' is continually broken by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, and the body-count continues to rise inexorably, what is the real motive behind Merkel and her 'Putinversteher' foreign minister, Walter Steinmeier, continually pushing Minsk2, whilst at the same time practically denouncing those who wish to aid Poroshenko's with defensive lethal weaponry with which to protect Ukraine from Putin's military onslaught?"

Merkel's excuse that the Ukrainian military simply cannot defend itself against Putin's military might, and that arming Ukraine with defensive lethal weaponry will simply 'anger' Putin into acting even more irrationally than he is at present, simply does not hold water.

Like Putin's mindset, Merkel's mindset is also trapped in the past. Putin has his mind set on resuscitating 'Russia's Imperial Past', whilst Merkel cannot tear her mind away from the fact that the Soviet Union gave the 'green light' to the tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the re-unification of eastern and western Germany.

As Thomas Burrows and Sam Webb reported last year,

"Angela Merket was joined by former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev as more than a million people took to the streets to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall." (MailOnline : 9 November 2014)
 

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the fall of the Berlin Wall 25 years ago should be regarded as a sign of hope for people suffering in Ukraine ....." (The Telegraph : Wednesday 15 April 2015)
(my emphasis)

whilst Gorbachev,

"cast a shadow over the celebrations when he used the anniversary of a moment that heralded the end of the stand-off between the Soviet Union and the West to warn that: “The world is on the brink of a new Cold War”, because of the crisis in Ukraine."(ibid The Telegraph) (my emphasis)

Gorbachev has been proved to be correct.

Angela Merkel has been proved to be wrong.

How many more body-bags holding Ukrainian and Russian soldiers will it take for Angela Merkel to tear her mind away from regarding the Fall of the Berlin Wall as a 'sign of hope' for the Ukrainian people?

This is not a perversity on the part of Angela Merkel. It is simply immoral.

(to be continued)

Putin, Lebedev, and Inozemtsev

Vladislav Inozemtsev and Alexander Lebedev have penned an article in the Guardian newspaper (Monday 13 April 2015) entitled, "The west is wrong to write off Ukraine's debts".

Before we examine the nature of this article, let us take a peek at these two men.

Alexander Lebedev, (pic: Lebedev and Putin in 2002) Russian oligarch now resident in London, worked at the  First Chief Directorate (Foreign Intelligence) of the KGB from 1982.

This organization was responsible for,

"...foreign operations and intelligence collection activities by the training and management of the covert agents, intelligence collection management, and the collection of political, scientific and technical intelligence." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Alexander Lebedev worked there, and at its successor, the Foreign Intelligence Service, until 1992. (Wikipedia)

Vladislav Inozemtsev (below),

"...worked as a junior editor in the Kommunist from April 1991 till September 1993. From 1993 till 1996 Mr. Inozemtsev was acting as an entrepreneur and business manager in various banks, became a founder and a principal shareholder of the Moscow-Paris com­mercial Bank, incorporated in Moscow in 1994." (Open Innovations : October 14–16, 2014)

A prolific author, he is also a regular contributor to the Valdai Club. The club’s goal is to promote dialogue between Russian and international intellectual elite. Essentially it is a club that gives Putin a platform to the world.

Their article in the Guardian newspaper explains that,

"The new government has been left in charge of a country crippled by both war and corruption, with external debts of $72.9bn at the beginning of this year. The finance ministry in Kiev – and the IMF – believe at least $20bn of this should be written off – because, after all, those responsible are no longer in power.....

 According to western analysts, the overall scale of corruption reached 14% of GDP during the early 2010s, or roughly $30bn a year. (left: The corrupt former president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich, who stole billions from the Ukrainian people)

[and, as a consequence],

"Rather than absolving those responsible, as the present government appears to be doing, we believe the private sector should take the lead in holding [those who corruptly stole this money] to account.

Why not hire private detectives to analyse foreign currency transactions to get a rough idea of how much was syphoned off?..... When those responsible are identified, creditors could force Kiev to prosecute hundreds of former officials." (ibid Guardian newspaper) (my emphasis)

Are either Lebedev or Vladislav Inozemtsev aware that Yanukovich and his clan, who stole billions from the Ukrainian people, now resides in Putin's Russia, under the protection of Putin himself?

Why have neither of them mentioned this fact? Instead they focus on the hundreds of minor 'footsoldiers' when the cabal at the apex of corruption and theft from the Ukrainian people are in full view for the whole world to see?

Instead they talk about hiring "Kojak", or "Magnum" or even "Sherlock Holmes", to track down the corrupt footsoldiers of the former Yanukovich regime.

    
I leave it for the reader to decide exactly whose side Vladislav Inozemtsev and Alexander Lebedev are actually on. There is a faint whiff of 'maskirovka' in the article that they have written.

Meanwhile the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier emerged from yesterday's meeting in Berlin between Klimkin, Fabius, Lavrov, and himself, and announced that,

             Klimkin                             Fabius                                 Lavrov                      Steinmeiser

"It was again a very long, very intensive discussion which in parts was very controversial..."

"During these talks today the differences of opinion between Kiev and Moscow also became clear once again."
 
Both sides are largely thought to have adhered to the deal - until a recent escalation of fighting in the flashpoints near Donetsk and the village of Shyrokyne, on the outskirts of the strategic port of Mariupol. (BBC News : 14th April, 2015) (my emphasis)

The next few weeks will, indeed, determine exactly of what value this meeting in Berlin of Steinmeier actually has on putting the brakes on Putin's 'imperial ambitions' in Ukraine.

We may also ask if the Russian oligarch, Alexander Lebedev, will use all his connections to the former KGB (now the FSB) to employ them as "private detectives" to get Yanukovich and his clan, now residing in Russia, spill the beans on where they have hidden all the billions that they stole from the Ukrainian people.

(to be continued)

Has Putin stepped into the abyss of a "Black Swan" event?

"Is Putin's tangled web of deceit now enmeshing him?"

That was the title to my last blog entry.

As if to bring it alive, 14 minutes ago (BST: 17:55) it is learnt that Putin has lifted the ban on Russia supplying Tehran with a sophisticated S300 missile system. (BBC News : 13th April, 2015)

"Delivery of the S-300s was cancelled in 2010 after the UN imposed sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme.

But the Russian president gave the go-ahead after Tehran struck an interim deal with world powers to curb nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
 ...........
The Russian defence ministry said it was ready to supply the S-300 equipment "promptly", an official there said, quoted by Interfax." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Yeganeh Torbati informs us, however, that,

".... many U.S. states are likely to stick with their own sanctions on Iran that could complicate any warming of relations between the long-time foes." (Reuters : Mon Apr 13, 2015) (my emphasis)


The question we now have to ask ourselves is,

"Has Putin finally stepped over the edge of the abyss into an unsuspecting Black Swan event into which he is now tumbling?"

Will this singular decision of Putin really bring it home to Germany's foreign minister, Walter Steinmeiser that Putin, with his KGB mind-set, will simply not adhere to the proposals of the Minsk2 agreement?

What now will be the decisions of the Berlin meeting between the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia? Can "the preparation of local elections in the areas occupied by the separatists" in eastern Ukraine now still be considered as a viable option in fulfilling the decisions of the Minsk2 agreement? 

What now will the upcoming G7 meeting of foreign ministers have to discuss? What will Steinmeiser have to offer them? 

Or will the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier, like an ostrich with its head in the sand, stubbornly cling to his belief that Putin is prepared to give up on his designs for Ukraine?

 49 minutes ago (GMT: 18:35) it was reported by Claire Rosemberg that,

"Surging fighting around hotspots in separatist-held east Ukraine put fresh pressure on a shaky ceasefire under review at talks on Monday between the French, German, Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers." (AFP (Yahoo News): 13 April, 2015) (my emphasis)
And it now emerges that,

""[Gazprom head Alexey] Miller (right) has just given a speech, in which he said that the transit contract with Ukraine would not be renewed after 2019,” (UNIAN : 13.04.2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"...all efforts are aimed at implementing the construction of transportation infrastructure in Turkey, on the border of Turkey and Greece, and delivering [gas] to consumers in southeastern and central Europe via this route." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

We now await, with some trepidation, the outcome of today's Berlin meeting, whilst events that can have a direct impact on its outcome could simply not have been foreseen.

(to be continued)

Is Putin's tangled web of deceit now enmeshing him?

As the Minsk2 'ceasefire' continues to unravel, it was to be expected that, once again, Merkel's Foreign Minister, the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier,

"... has urged Russia and Ukraine to move forward with the terms of the Minsk ceasefire, ahead of a key meeting in Berlin." (DW : 13.04.2015)

"We expect both Moscow and Kyiv to seize the central issue of the implementation of the next phase of Minsk," Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in Monday's edition of German daily Die Welt.
This phase foresees "the preparation of local elections in the areas occupied by the separatists, but also humanitarian aid access and reconstruction in eastern Ukraine," Steinmeier said." (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

Steinmeier lauded the progress that had been made, citing the "well-advanced withdrawal of heavy weapons" (ibid DW)  in the face of,

(1) "Ukrainian forces [who] faced 20 attacks by Kremlin-led militants in the past 48 hours and spotted 30 enemy drones probing their positions, an unnamed NATO official said that Russia has sent additional military manpower and arms to Donbas (right: April 10, 2015.), according to a news report by the FrankruterAllgemeine Zeitung that interviewed the person." (KyivPost : April 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

AND

(2) "The OSCE this week demand[ing] that both the pro-Russian separatists and the regular Ukrainian army stop intimidating or restricting the movements of its 400 monitors." (AFP (Yahoo News) : 13 April, 2015)

Is Steinmeier giving Putin an 'exit strategy' from his war with Ukraine; an 'exit strategy' to be presented at to-day's meeting in Berlin that will be attended by himself, Russia's Lavrov, France's Fabius and Ukraine's Klimkin?

             Klimkin                              Fabius                                Lavrov                      Steinmeier

The results of to-day's meeting in Berlin will then be discussed at "a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Luebeck, Germany, on Tuesday and Wednesday." (ibid AFP (Yahoo News)) (my emphasis)

The current G7 group consists of Canada's Robert Nicholson, France's Laurent Fabius, Germany's Walter Steinmeier, the UK's Philip Hammond, Italy's Paolo Gentiloni, Japan's Fumio Kishida, and the US's John Kerry.

   Canada: Nicholson         France: Fabius        Germany: Steinmeier           UK : Hammond

           Italy: Gentiloni                Japan: Kishida               US: Kerry

We can reasonably expect that France, Germany, and Italy will be fully supportive of Steinmeier's suggestion about pushing the Minsk2 agreements to the next stage.

Canada, the UK, and the US, will be very reluctant to endorse Steinmeier due to the fact that EACH of these countries have sent military trainers to Ukraine in response to Putin's continous build-up of his forces in eastern Ukraine.

The position of Japan will be dictated by the longstanding dispute between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands issue. Kishida is thus also unlikely to endorse Steinmeier's proposal about moving Minsk2 to the next phase of preparing for 'elections' in eastern Ukraine.

Putin must be apoplectically angry about this G7 meeting since Russia was,

"....suspended from the elite G8 group of leading economies, who said they could not accept its breach of international law [in annexing Ukrainian Crimea].

David Cameron, Barack Obama and other world leaders said it was up to Vladimir Putin to 'change course' over Ukraine or his country will remain excluded indefinitely. " (Tamara Cohen : Daily Mail: 25 March 2014) (my emphasis)

The feverish diplomatic activity over the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia that is taking place in this and the coming weeks signifies, more than anything else, that Putin is, indeed, teetering on the brink of falling into the abyss of a Black Swan event over which he will have no control.

The web of deceit that he has tried to spin since his invasion and annexing of Ukrainian Crimea has now become for him a tangled mess. 
 
This tangled mess is now also beginning to embrace Putin's puppet in Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov (left).

"Adam Osmayev (right), the commander of a battalion of Chechens fighting against Russia-backed rebels, is in the town of Lysychansk, Ukraine......
......


[Meanwhile Ramzan Kadyrov's] men have steadily expanded their sway beyond Chechnya to control lucrative businesses in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia.

Leaders of [Chechnya's] federal law enforcement agencies have watched Kadyrov's growing power with dismay and have made no secret of their desire to curb him." (US News : April 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

And how is Putin responding to the growing dis-satisfaction of Chechnya's law enforcement agencies with Kadyrov's growing power?

"Putin quickly sent a signal that he intended to stand by Kadyrov by awarding him the Order of Honor for distinguished public service, a day after Kadyrov spoke out in defense of the arrested Chechens [accused of the murder of Boris Nemtsov (right)]. (ibid US News) (my emphasis)

"And while leaders are divided over the conflict in Ukraine, they have been united in observing sacred ceremonies marking Christians’ belief in the resurrection of Christ." (EuroNews : 12 April, 2015)

(to be continued)