The inevitable has happened.
Putin, flush with success over these last years that he could use gas as a military weapon, now finds that, unfortunately, this weapon is not all that it was cracked up to be, as he had previously believed.
With the recent shooting down of one of his military planes by the Turkish military, and the rapidly dissappearing of what he thought would be an unbreakable bond of friendship between himself and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left), Putin must now be more than fuming.
As Marc Champion explains,
"Whichever version of [the shooting down of a Russian military plane by Turkish military]... turns out to be accurate -- or even a combination of the two, in which the Russian Sukhoi had strayed into Turkish airspace and was shot down as it veered back into Syria -- it is clear that Putin has misjudged Erdogan." (Bloomberg View : Nov. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)
Putin simply cannot use his gas weapon against Turkey since,
"The sales volume from Turkey is equivalent to 17% of Gazprom's total exports outside the former Soviet Union ...." (Tyler Durden : Zero Hedge: Nov. 25, 2015)
And if this were not enough,
"Ukraine has banned all Russian planes from using its airspace and exports of Russian gas to Ukraine have been halted by state-controlled giant Gazprom." (BBC News : 25 November 2015) (my emphasis)
Furthermore, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian Prime Minister, has informed us that,
" ..... his government had decided to stop buying gas from Russia as it could get a better deal elsewhere.
"The government has made the decision to order [Ukraine's national oil and gas company] Naftohaz to stop buying Russian gas.
"They got it all wrong. It is not them who are not supplying gas to us, it is us who are not buying gas from them. This is being done because offers that have come from our European partners - price offers - are much better than the offers from our eastern neighbour." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)
Compounding Putin's woes, we now learn that,
"Skirmishes between Donetsk militants resulted in dozens of deaths, according to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Defense Ministry.
"15 people died and about 20 have been wounded as a result of shootout in Donetsk between separatists' gangs," says the report.
So-called security forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic arrested more than 40 militants involved in the deadly melee. (Ukraine Today : Nov. 26, 2015)
Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies seem to be hell bent on sabotaging the latest Minsk truce deal.
So much so that,
"The line of contact between Russian-backed militants and Ukrainian troops is shifting near the strategic port city of Mariupol according to government troops." (Ukraine Today : Nov. 26, 2015)
And whilst Putin seems to be readying himself and his Russian soldiers and rebel forces for an attack on Mariupol, Olga Shylenko and Max Delaney report that,
Putin, flush with success over these last years that he could use gas as a military weapon, now finds that, unfortunately, this weapon is not all that it was cracked up to be, as he had previously believed.
With the recent shooting down of one of his military planes by the Turkish military, and the rapidly dissappearing of what he thought would be an unbreakable bond of friendship between himself and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left), Putin must now be more than fuming.
As Marc Champion explains,
"Whichever version of [the shooting down of a Russian military plane by Turkish military]... turns out to be accurate -- or even a combination of the two, in which the Russian Sukhoi had strayed into Turkish airspace and was shot down as it veered back into Syria -- it is clear that Putin has misjudged Erdogan." (Bloomberg View : Nov. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)
Putin simply cannot use his gas weapon against Turkey since,
"The sales volume from Turkey is equivalent to 17% of Gazprom's total exports outside the former Soviet Union ...." (Tyler Durden : Zero Hedge: Nov. 25, 2015)
And if this were not enough,
"Ukraine has banned all Russian planes from using its airspace and exports of Russian gas to Ukraine have been halted by state-controlled giant Gazprom." (BBC News : 25 November 2015) (my emphasis)
Furthermore, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian Prime Minister, has informed us that,
" ..... his government had decided to stop buying gas from Russia as it could get a better deal elsewhere.
"The government has made the decision to order [Ukraine's national oil and gas company] Naftohaz to stop buying Russian gas.
"They got it all wrong. It is not them who are not supplying gas to us, it is us who are not buying gas from them. This is being done because offers that have come from our European partners - price offers - are much better than the offers from our eastern neighbour." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)
Compounding Putin's woes, we now learn that,
"Skirmishes between Donetsk militants resulted in dozens of deaths, according to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Defense Ministry.
"15 people died and about 20 have been wounded as a result of shootout in Donetsk between separatists' gangs," says the report.
So-called security forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic arrested more than 40 militants involved in the deadly melee. (Ukraine Today : Nov. 26, 2015)
Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies seem to be hell bent on sabotaging the latest Minsk truce deal.
So much so that,
"The line of contact between Russian-backed militants and Ukrainian troops is shifting near the strategic port city of Mariupol according to government troops." (Ukraine Today : Nov. 26, 2015)
And whilst Putin seems to be readying himself and his Russian soldiers and rebel forces for an attack on Mariupol, Olga Shylenko and Max Delaney report that,
"France said
sanctions against Russia could be lifted if Moscow fulfils its pledges
to bring peace to Ukraine, hours after Kiev closed its airspace to its
neighbour's airlines and Russia said it would stop delivering gas.etc
Speaking on the
eve of talks between the French and Russian presidents, French Prime
Minster Manuel Valls (right) gave his clearest indication yet the punishing
travel and financial restrictions placed on Russia over its role in
eastern Ukraine could end. (AFP : 26 November, 2015) (my emphasis)
This is not the first time that Hollande has been subtly pushing for US and EU sanctions against Putin's Russia to be lifted.
Let us once again remind ourselves that on September 7, 2015, long before the tragic events in Paris last Friday (November 20, 2015),
"French President Francois Hollande said Monday that he will propose such a meeting [among the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Germany in the coming weeks to resolve tensions around eastern Ukraine, in hopes of eventually lifting EU sanctions] in Paris ahead of the U.N. General Assembly later this month.
He said there has been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal, and said if that continues, "then I will argue for lifting the sanctions." (AP : Yahoo : September 7, 2015) (my emphasis)
Let us once again remind ourselves that on September 7, 2015, long before the tragic events in Paris last Friday (November 20, 2015),
"French President Francois Hollande said Monday that he will propose such a meeting [among the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Germany in the coming weeks to resolve tensions around eastern Ukraine, in hopes of eventually lifting EU sanctions] in Paris ahead of the U.N. General Assembly later this month.
He said there has been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal, and said if that continues, "then I will argue for lifting the sanctions." (AP : Yahoo : September 7, 2015) (my emphasis)
This pro-Putin stance of Hollande is mirrored amongst many closet Putin supporters in the EU.
As Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet report,
"European Union countries will probably extend Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia for another six months at the end of January [2016] despite improved cooperation in Syria, three European diplomats said." (Bloomberg Business : November 23, 2015)
However, at the same time,
".... even as Hungary, Greece, Italy, Austria and Spain fall into line, resistance to the sanctions is growing and will further increase pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is already facing calls from her domestic industrial lobby for a change in policy, Timothy Ash said." (ibid Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet) (my emphasis)
Now that Putin's "Gas Military Weapon" against Ukraine is failing, he will be placing all his diplomatic eggs into the basket of having those crippling US and EU sanctions against him removed.
And aiding and abbeting him in bringing about his frantic diplomatic strategy about getting those sanctions removed will be the French President, Francoise Hollande and, I predict, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (left), the current High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, nothwithstanding their mouthing of those deceptive platitudes about "the fullfilment of the Minsk2 proposals".
(to be continued)
As Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet report,
"European Union countries will probably extend Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia for another six months at the end of January [2016] despite improved cooperation in Syria, three European diplomats said." (Bloomberg Business : November 23, 2015)
However, at the same time,
".... even as Hungary, Greece, Italy, Austria and Spain fall into line, resistance to the sanctions is growing and will further increase pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is already facing calls from her domestic industrial lobby for a change in policy, Timothy Ash said." (ibid Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet) (my emphasis)
Now that Putin's "Gas Military Weapon" against Ukraine is failing, he will be placing all his diplomatic eggs into the basket of having those crippling US and EU sanctions against him removed.
And aiding and abbeting him in bringing about his frantic diplomatic strategy about getting those sanctions removed will be the French President, Francoise Hollande and, I predict, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (left), the current High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, nothwithstanding their mouthing of those deceptive platitudes about "the fullfilment of the Minsk2 proposals".
(to be continued)