Putin's world is beginning to crumble around his feet. And herein lies the danger for the rest of us.

The inevitable has happened.

Putin, flush with success over these last years that he could use gas as a military weapon, now finds that, unfortunately, this weapon is not all that it was cracked up to be, as he had previously believed.

With the recent shooting down of one of his military planes by the Turkish military, and the rapidly dissappearing of what he thought would be an unbreakable bond of friendship between himself and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left), Putin must now be more than fuming.

As Marc Champion explains,

"Whichever version of [the shooting down of a Russian military plane by Turkish military]... turns out to be accurate -- or even a combination of the two, in which the Russian Sukhoi had strayed into Turkish airspace and was shot down as it veered back into Syria -- it is clear that Putin has misjudged Erdogan." (Bloomberg View : Nov. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin simply cannot use his gas weapon against Turkey since,

"The sales volume from Turkey is equivalent to 17% of Gazprom's total exports outside the former Soviet Union ...." (Tyler Durden : Zero Hedge: Nov. 25, 2015)

And if this were not enough,

"Ukraine has banned all Russian planes from using its airspace and exports of Russian gas to Ukraine have been halted by state-controlled giant Gazprom." (BBC News : 25 November 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian Prime Minister, has informed us that,

" ..... his government had decided to stop buying gas from Russia as it could get a better deal elsewhere.

"The government has made the decision to order [Ukraine's national oil and gas company] Naftohaz to stop buying Russian gas.

"They got it all wrong. It is not them who are not supplying gas to us, it is us who are not buying gas from them. This is being done because offers that have come from our European partners - price offers - are much better than the offers from our eastern neighbour." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Compounding Putin's woes, we now learn that,

"Skirmishes between Donetsk militants resulted in dozens of deaths, according to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Defense Ministry.

"15 people died and about 20 have been wounded as a result of shootout in Donetsk between separatists' gangs," says the report.

So-called security forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic arrested more than 40 militants involved in the deadly melee. (Ukraine Today : Nov. 26, 2015)

Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies seem to be hell bent on sabotaging the latest Minsk truce deal.

So much so that,

"The line of contact between Russian-backed militants and Ukrainian troops is shifting near the strategic port city of Mariupol according to government troops." (Ukraine Today :  Nov. 26, 2015)

And whilst Putin seems to be readying himself and his Russian soldiers and rebel forces for an attack on Mariupol, Olga Shylenko and Max Delaney report that,

"France said sanctions against Russia could be lifted if Moscow fulfils its pledges to bring peace to Ukraine, hours after Kiev closed its airspace to its neighbour's airlines and Russia said it would stop delivering gas.etc

Speaking on the eve of talks between the French and Russian presidents, French Prime Minster Manuel Valls (right) gave his clearest indication yet the punishing travel and financial restrictions placed on Russia over its role in eastern Ukraine could end. (AFP : 26 November, 2015) (my emphasis)

This is not the first time that Hollande has been subtly pushing for US and EU sanctions against Putin's Russia to be lifted.

Let us once again remind ourselves that on September 7, 2015, long before the tragic events in Paris last Friday (November 20, 2015),

"French President Francois Hollande said Monday that he will propose such a meeting [among the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Germany in the coming weeks to resolve tensions around eastern Ukraine, in hopes of eventually lifting EU sanctions] in Paris ahead of the U.N. General Assembly later this month.

He said there has been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal, and said if that continues, "then I will argue for lifting the sanctions." (AP : Yahoo : September 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

This pro-Putin stance of Hollande is mirrored amongst many closet Putin supporters in the EU.

As Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet report,

"European Union countries will probably extend Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia for another six months at the end of January [2016] despite improved cooperation in Syria, three European diplomats said." (Bloomberg Business : November 23, 2015)

However, at the same time,

".... even as Hungary, Greece, Italy, Austria and Spain fall into line, resistance to the sanctions is growing and will further increase pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is already facing calls from her domestic industrial lobby for a change in policy, Timothy Ash said." (ibid Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet) (my emphasis)

Now that Putin's "Gas Military Weapon" against Ukraine is failing, he will be placing all his diplomatic eggs into the basket of having those crippling US and EU sanctions against him removed.

And aiding and abbeting him in bringing about his frantic diplomatic strategy about getting those sanctions removed will be the French President, Francoise Hollande and, I predict, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (left), the current High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, nothwithstanding their mouthing of those deceptive platitudes about "the fullfilment of the Minsk2 proposals".

(to be continued)

Sabotage in Ukraine, and Putin cynically using the fight against ISIS to gain concessions over EU sanctions.

In his article about the current Unkrainian Crimean blackout, Leonid Bershidsky (right), the founding editor of Russia's top business daily, Vedomosti, the creator of the opinion website Slon.ru, who also ran the business book arm of Russia's biggest book publisher, Eksmo, and worked as managing director at the Russian KIT Finance investment bank,is finally revealing where his sympathies really lay.

He defines Ukrainian civil society as a,

"... powerful, unruly civil society [which] is extremely sensitive to hypocrisy. Since the 2014 "Revolution of Dignity," it is also prone to taking matters into its own hands." (Bloomberg View : Nov 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Notice that he is brushing the whole of Ukrainian civil society with the actions being taken by Crimean Tartars to economically blockade their Ukrainian Crimea that has been invaded, annexed, and absorbed into Russia by Putin.

Let us recall that Dmitri Medvedev, Putin's glove puppet, on 31st March, 2014, boldly stated that,

"Our aim is to make the peninsula as attractive as possible to investors, so that it can generate sufficient income for its own development," he said, in a meeting that included Crimean leaders and was broadcast live on Russian state television.

In comments that made clear Russia had no plans to relinquish the region, he set out moves to increase wages for 140,000 state workers in Crimea, boost pensions, turn the region into a tourism hub, protect energy links, end reliance on Ukraine for water and improve its roads, railways and airports." (EurActiv : 01 Apr 2014) (my emphasis)

Besides the bribes paid to state workers and pensioners in Ukrainian Crimea, not even the basic groundwork for realising these dreams of both his and Putin's has materialised.

Now Putin has,

"....blamed Ukrainian nationalists and Crimean Tatar activists for the pylon damage, calling it "an act of terrorism"." (BBC News : 23 November 2015) and "has warned of retaliatory measures." (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that, as Aaron Korewa reports,

 "Euromaidan Press recently published a list of the Kremlin's other separatist projects in Ukraine. One of the most active organizations is the Kharkiv Partisans, which operates in northeast Ukraine. The group has claimed responsibility for several IED attacks on both people and infrastructure in the area. Its leader, Oleg Sobchenko, (right) lives in Russia and claims to be a Soviet Army veteran who served on the Afghan border." (Atlantic Council : November 11, 2015)

The current blackout in Crimea was, as Ivan Nechepurenko and Neil MacFarquhar report, caused by

" ... power lines [that] were knocked down by saboteurs on Sunday, forcing millions of residents to live without electricity." (New York Times : NOV. 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that

"Ukraine's state energy company, Ukrenergo, said the damage to the pylons was caused by "shelling or the use of explosive devices". (ibid BBC News)

Is it a co-incidence that this sabotage has occurred just as Ukraine's decision to implement a free trade agreement with the EU comes into force on 1 January 2016? 

It is also no secret that Putin is positively apopletic with rage at the looming implementation of this trade deal between the EU and Ukraine.

"Russia is angry at Ukraine's decision to implement a free trade agreement with the EU on 1 January 2016." (ibid BBC News)

 And as Andrew Roth (left) reports,

"Russia is set to introduce sanctions banning the import of most Ukrainian food products starting in January. Moscow has described the move as retaliation for Ukraine joining European Union sanctions against Russia this year." (The Washington Post : November 2, 2015) (my emphasis) 

To which,

"Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk on Monday declared that Ukraine will retaliate against the planned Russian sanctions.

“Each Russian decision to impose an embargo against Ukraine will have an analogous Ukrainian decision about the introduction of an embargo against Russia,” Yatsenyuk said in a television appearance. (ibid Andrew Roth) (my emphasis)

All of this should be seen against the backdrop of :

(a) Putin desperately trying to re-enter the world stage by setting himself up as the leader in the vanguard of battling ISIS in Syria and Iraq

(b) Putin hoping that this stance of his will gain him concessions in the proposed extension of the EU sanctions that he brought upon the head of the Russian people after his invasion of eastern Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea


As Mariella Vitureau and Vaidotas Beniusis report,

"Several Eastern European countries are becoming increasingly worried that the West may abandon Ukraine in return for Russian backing in Syria, as Paris, Moscow and Washington develop closer ties in the fight against the Islamic State jihadist group.
...
"Even if it's not officially on the table, Moscow hopes that if the anti-IS coalition sees the light of day, pressure in the case of Ukraine will lessen and a certain number of countries will say, since we're fighting together, the sanctions shouldn't be renewed," Polish analyst Wojciech Lorenz told AFP." (AFP : Yahoo News :November 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that on September 7, 2015, long before the tragic events in Paris last Friday (November 20, 2015),

"French President Francois Hollande said Monday that he will propose such a meeting [among the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Germany in the coming weeks to resolve tensions around eastern Ukraine, in hopes of eventually lifting EU sanctions] in Paris ahead of the U.N. General Assembly later this month.

He said there has been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal, and said if that continues, "then I will argue for lifting the sanctions." (AP : Yahoo : September 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

And as the "comradeship" between Putin and Hollande grows to fever pitch as they join their forces in the fight against ISIS,

"Lithuania will not take part in any new coalition in which Russia will participate or would like to participate," President Dalia Grybauskaite (right) said Friday.

"To this day Russia is occupying the territory of one country and committing acts of war in two countries, Ukraine and Georgia," she added in the western resort town of Palanga after meeting with her Baltic counterparts.

 

The Latvian foreign ministry for its part said Friday that "the Baltic countries should continue to constantly remind the world about the illegal annexation of Crimea."

"The fight against terrorists and resolving the conflict in Syria should not be at the expense of Ukraine." (ibid Mariella Vitureau and Vaidotas Beniusis) (my emphasis)

The situation in BOTH Ukraine and Syria is ramping up.

Putin is cynically using the situation in Syria to obtain concessions over Ukraine. 

Which poses the sixty-four dollar question.

Who stands to gain the most from the blowing up of those electricity pylons in Ukraine, that has left Ukrainian Crimea bereft of electricity?

(to be continued)

Hot off the news .....

"Russian president has accused Turkey of "stabbing Russia in the back", as reports say two pilots have been killed by Turkmen forces in Syria" (The Telegraph :Tuesday 24 November 2015)

At the same time, Hollande was meeting President Obama at the White House.

"President Obama hosts French President Francois Hollande at the White House Tuesday, and the two leaders will discuss how to ramp up the international coalition against ISIS extremists after the deadly attacks in Paris." (Ali Weinberg : ABC News : Nov 23, 2015)

How are they going to respond to Putin who declared,

"The loss of our aircraft comes in the context of our fight agaisnt terrorism. But today’s loss was a blow in the back by the accomplices of terrorists. I can’t qualify this in any other way. Our plane was downed over Syrian territory by an air to air missile from a turkish F16. It crashed inside Syria, 4 km from the Turkish border. 

"At the time it was engaged it was at 6000m altitude and one kilometre from the Turkish border. In any case our pilots never threatened the territory of Turkey. This is obvious."
...
"We will analyse everything in detail and the serious consequences including for Russia’s relationship with Turkey." (ibid The Telegraph) ( my emphasis)

Bear in mind that Turkey is a member of NATO.

(to be continued)
 

Puting fighting ISIS, whilst setting up terrorists groups in Ukraine

It was Winston Churchill who said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste”

This is a lesson that Putin learnt in 1999, when he was prime minister under Boris Yeltsin.

The Moscow apartment "terror" bombings that took place in September of 1999, were blamed by Putin on Chechen muslim militants.

However,

"Yuri Felshtinsky, Litvinenko, David Satter, Boris Kagarlitsky, Vladimir Pribylovsky, and the secessionist Chechen authorities claimed that the 1999 bombings were a false flag attack coordinated by the FSB to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya, which boosted Prime Minister and former FSB Director Vladimir Putin's popularity, and brought the pro-war Unity Party to the State Duma and Putin to the presidency within a few months." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

True to form, Putin is now milking the tragic 'terrorist' events in Paris that killed more than 120 people and injured more than 200 people last Friday, as well as the downing of a Russian plane over Sinai on 31st October  that killed all 224 Russians on board, to once again strut on the world stage at the G20 summit in Turkey as the 'world leader' to rid the world of the scourge of ISIS.

To this end he is,

"...preparing to send 150,000 troops to Syria in a bid to wipe out the evil Islamic State once and for all as he hints at joining the West following the Paris attacks." (Scott Campbell : Express News : Thu, Nov 19, 2015) (my emphasis)

Just as in 1999 his 'macho' stance to bomb Chechnya into oblivion endeared the Russian people towards him, who then gave him the presidency of Russia; he is now, rather cynically, using these latest tragedies not only to shore up his power in Russia but, more importantly, to extract from the US and the EU a removal of the current sanctions against Russia that his war with Ukraine brought down upon his head.

Unfortunately for him, as Laurence Norman and Laura Mills (left) report,

"European Union officials say, however, that there is little appetite in key capitals, including Berlin, London and Paris, to win Russian help in Syria by abandoning Ukraine. One concrete sign is that the bloc is still heading toward extending economic sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of the Ukraine crisis last year, EU officials and diplomats say." (Wall Street Journal : Nov. 18, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Even the fact that,

"Russia this week made a surprise proposal to restructure Ukraine’s debt coming due next month, offering a potential solution to a standoff that has threatened to complicate an international bailout of Ukraine." (ibid Norman and Mills) does not seem to have prevented an extension of these sanctions been agrred upon soon by EU members.

This proposal of Putin has, however, being somewhat overshadowed by the fact that, Russian proxies are been set up for a new offensive in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Vadym Skybitsky, chief of the Main Directorate of Ukraine's Defense Ministry,

"We have recorded a few signs indicating that the offensive is being prepared by the militants. Moreover, Russian military commanders of various ranks are permanently there, for example, those from the General Staff, the 12th Command of the Russian Armed Forces' reserve. It is a permanent core," he said. (UT : Nov. 20, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf also: UNIAN)

It is no wonder that, "Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, along with Poland, are warning of Russian backsliding on implementing the Ukrainian ceasefire deal agreed in February."

  
Time is critically running out for the Minsk2 implementation, in particular, of the return to Ukraine of its border with Russia, together with the removal of Russian soldiers from eastern Ukraine.

Putin's generals are well aware that his rag-tag of rebels in eastern Ukraine simply cannot stand against a Ukrainian army that has held the Russian army in check.

Expect, therefore, to see a serious escalation of Putin employing 'terrorist' methods in Ukraine as a means of maintaining his strategy of destabilising the current Ukrainian regime.

As Aaron Korewa says,

 "Euromaidan Press recently published a list of the Kremlin's other separatist projects in Ukraine. One of the most active organizations is the Kharkiv Partisans, which operates in northeast Ukraine. The group has claimed responsibility for several IED attacks on both people and infrastructure in the area. Its leader, Oleg Sobchenko, lives in Russia and claims to be a Soviet Army veteran who served on the Afghan border.

In Odesa, a group known as the Odesa Underground states that it's behind a similar string of terrorist attacks there. And the Ukrainian security service, the SBU, claims to have foiled a terror attack on a recruitment center in Kyiv on October 14. The cell behind the attempted attack was allegedly controlled by Russian security services and led by Alexei Selivanov, a pro-Russian Ukrainian citizen from Odesa who was previously involved with pro-Russian Cossack groups." (Atlantic Council : November 11, 2015)

So whilst Putin is publicly taking a stand against the Islamic terrorist organization ISIS, he is cultivating his own brand of terrorists inside Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin's nightmare week, and the myth of his 'frozen conflict'.

For Putin, this is a week that he will come to view as the worst week in his life.

The 'macho' image that he has so assiduously cultivated since the beginning of his presidency of Russia has been severely deflated by the decision of the International Association of Athlectics Federation (IAAF) to,

" .... [bar] Russia from all international track and field competition for an indefinite period, including the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, until the country is judged to have fixed its problems and fallen into line with global anti-doping rules." (Huffpost Sports : 11/13/2015) (my emphasis) (right: Putin posing with prospective Olympic athletes)

 

This barring of Putin's Russia from all international track and field competitions,

" ... was approved by a 22-1 vote during a teleconference of the 27-member council of the IAAF." (Sky News : Friday 13 November 2015) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough to send Putin into fits of apopletic rage, Akin Oyedele informs us that,

"Crude oil tumbled towards $40 per barrel on Friday morning.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures in New York fell to as low as $40.47 a share, a drop of more than 3% to the lowest level in about two and a half months." (Business Insider UK : Nov. 13, 2015) (my emphasis)
 
To further add to his rage, the European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström, (right) has stated that,

"We decided that DCFTA would come into force, and Russia will have to accept that.

...

Commissioner Malmström will visit Ukraine on November 12-13 to meet the Prime Minister, the President, the Minister for Economic Development and Trade, and the Foreign Minister.
Implementation of the Ukraine – EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area from January 1, 2016, will be on the top agenda of Ms Malmström’s visit." (Unian : 11.11.2015) (my emphasis)

This emphatic position of  Cecilia Malmström towards Ukraine obtaining a DCFTA with the EU in just over 7 weeks time has elicited the following respone from Putin's glove puppet, Dmitry Medvedev viz. that,

".... the Kremlin plans introduction of customs tariffs, not sanctions against Ukraine. The tariffs will be introduced because Ukraine will no longer be part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) free trade zone. Moscow is also concerned that without such a barrier, Kiev could illegally supply embargoed European goods to Russia." (RT : 13 Nov, 2015)(my emphasis)

All that Putin can now do is to shake his fists at the EU, and threaten that,

"... the threat of Donbass turning into another frozen conflict is still there. It stems from Kiev's policy, which continues to strengthen the blockade of the south-east," he said." (Reuters (CNBC) : 13 Nov., 2015) (my emphasis)

That Putin can so barefacedly make this threat is supported by the fact that,

"Far from international front pages, the situation in eastern Ukraine is once again on the verge of open warfare.
While the situation around Donetsk, the capital of the Russian-backed fighters, has remained strained since the announcement of the newest cease-fire in September, with sporadic small-arms fire reported almost daily, it has deteriorated significantly in the last two weeks." (James Miller and Pierre Vaux : RFERL : 14 Nov., 2015) (my emphasis)

This is how Putin defines a 'frozen conflict'! The continuing suffering of the people caught up in Putin's rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine!

As reported by the UNHCR (UN High Commission for Refugees),

"For the first time since the suspension of its activities [by Putin's soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine], the UN refugee agency has delivered vital winter aid including plastic sheeting, timber and thousands of blankets for distribution to up to 12,000 highly vulnerable people in an area of eastern Ukraine that is beyond government control." (UNHCR : 9 November)

                                              UN Aid Chief to Visit east Ukraine

That Putin can sleep at night, fully aware of all the suffering and death that his invasion of eastern Ukraine has caused, should give us pause and concern for his state of mind. #

(to be continued)

Putin's rebels jeopardising the ceasefire, and Federica Mogherini batting for his economic team.

It may sound rather illogical, but 'bad news serves as the perfect cover' for distracting attention from news that you simply do not wish to appear in the headlines.

And so it is with the current Russian athletics doping scandal that has practically shoved most other news off the web pages of the Internet, as well as off the front pages of newspapers all around the word.

As the report of  Jethro Mullen (left) of CNN illustrates,

"A stunning report this week has rocked the athletics world with detailed allegations of a state-sponsored doping program in Russia." (CNN : November 10, 2015)

 What has been relegated to the back pages is the fact that in Ukraine,

" .....each side is accusing the other of firing at soldiers and civilians, underlining the fragility of the truce that some fear could disintegrate like previous ceasefires.", as reported by Yulia Silina. (AFP : 11 November, 2015)

She goes on to report that,

"Military spokesman Vladyslav Seleznyov accused the rebels of trying to "provoke us to return fire to disrupt the truce" and to "distract OSCE observers from the fact that they are not pulling back heavy weapons."

Kiev suspects that rebels are worried about the next step of the ceasefire agreement signed in Minsk in February, which requires them to give control of the Russian border back to Ukrainian authorities." (ibid Yulia Silina) (my emphasis)

As Jack Losh of The Times also reports,

"Ukraine’s fragile ceasefire was in danger of collapsing last night after a series of assaults on government positions by Russian-backed rebels was followed by counterstrikes along the eastern front line." (The Times : 11 November, 2015) (my emphasis)

UNIAN further informs us that,

"The Russian proxies fired small arms, and weapons of BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles in the direction of Nevelsk and Kamenka and also fired from anti-aircraft weapons in the direction of Verhniotoretske.
The terrorists also shelled Popasna and Bohuslavske on the Artemivsk direction from 120mm mortars, banned by the Minsk agreements." (UNIAN : 10.11.2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini is suddenly in the Ukrainian spotlight.

Whilst, on the one hand, she is paying 'lip service' to the Minsk2 agreement by stating that,
 
 "....the EU's position on sanctions against Russia remains unchanged and is linked to the implementation of the Minsk agreements and de-occupation of Donbas.", (UUA : 09.11.2015)

on the other hand she is also arguing that,

"Russian concerns about the Ukraine-EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) Agreement should be addressed." (Kyiv Post : Nov. 9, 2015)

""We have already done much for implementation of the agreement [the EU-Ukraine deep and comprehensive free trade area agreement]. Now we still need to find practical solutions to remove Russia's concerns regarding the operation of this agreement," Mogherini stressed." (Ukrinform : 11 November, Wednesday) (my emphasis)

 

She also strongly urged,

" ..... Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko Monday to take tougher and more immediate action against corruption as his ex-Soviet country moves closer to Europe." (AFP: November 9, 2015)

It is rather interesting that Mogherini, Putin's favourite EU representative, is suddenly taking 'centre stage' over Ukraine in the EU.

The 'fragrant' Mogherini's blind spot, when dealing with her 'friend' Putin, is simply to 'take Putin at his word'. 

She should bear in mind that, as Melik Kaylan (left) argues,

" [Putin] launched into Syria knowing the potential cost of taking on ISIS, but he had to create another crisis after Ukraine to maintain nationalist fervor in Russia. 

Innocent Russian tourists paid with their lives. 

His propaganda organs, by word and deed, rose to the occasion with blood and lies. 

So the conflict in Ukraine was reignited to distract from ISIS. In effect, Ukrainians had to die to distract from Putin’s misstep in Syria. That’s how geo-strategically the Kremlin works.

In the Cold War we understood that. It’s time to understand it again." (Forbes :Nov 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Her argument that, "...[the EU] still need to find practical solutions to remove Russia's concerns regarding the operation of this agreement ....", as a prerequisite to fully complete the comprehensive trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, ignores not only the PUBLIC duplicity of Putin but, more importantly, the fact that, as Andrew Mayeda (right) informs us,

"Russia is exploring strategies to try to block the International Monetary Fund’s next loan payment to Ukraine as a dispute between the two countries over a $3 billion bond comes to a head, according to a person familiar with the matter.......
...
Vladimir Putin’s administration may withhold its assurance that Ukraine can repay its debts to Russia, said the first person, who has direct knowledge of the Russian strategy. Russia could also argue that Ukraine hasn’t negotiated in good faith, the person said. The people asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public." (Bloomberg : November 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

And the 'fragrant' Mogherini still wishes us to focus on Putin's concerns that his economy will lose out when Ukraine joins the DCFTA with the EU?

(to be continued)

Putin's 'Novorossiya' dream for Ukraine is ending tragically

Today is something of a 'red letter' day for Putin.

In the wake of the elections that were held in Ukraine last month, the tragedy that occured over the Sinai desert where a plane carrying Russians exploded in mid-air killing (left) all on board, and the Russian cargo plane which crashed shortly after take-off in South Sudan on Wednesday, also killing all on board except for the miraculous surviving of a baby (see pic. on right) and an old woman,

"Chief diplomats [Foreign Ministers] of Germany (Steinmeier), France (Fabius), Russia (Lavrov) and Ukraine (Klimkin) will meet Friday (6/11/2015) in Berlin to agree on next steps in ending the Ukraine conflict, a German Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Wednesday, citing heavy weapons withdrawal as one possible measure." (London Stock Exchange : 05 Nov 2015) (my emphasis) (Left to Right: Klimkin, Fabius, Lavrov, Steinmeier)

However,

"International monitors in eastern Ukraine have reported a sharp increase in gunfire along front lines near the airport of the rebel-held city of Donetsk, a senior official with Europe's main security and rights watchdog said on Thursday.

.......... [T]he OSCE monitors' report on Wednesday cited over 150 explosions and multiple bursts of small-arms and anti-aircraft machine-gun fire heard in various areas of the front." (Reuters: Thu Nov 5, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Not only has the OSCE monitors "seen many discrepancies in the withdrawal process in east Ukraine" (ibid Reuters) and "of particular worry is that at least one Grad rocket was used in Staromykhailivka ... on Nov. 2" (ibid Reuters)

General Wesley Clark has revealed, however, that,

"..More than half the makeup of OSCE, we were told, were Russian military, who are free to go up to the Ukrainian positions, look at their disposition ...... and maybe not even on the honour code" 

Full video here.

 "[A] Ukrainian security chief said the withdrawal process would stop if truce violations by pro-Russian separatists continue" (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

This sudden spike in gun and rocket fire of Putin's Russian soldiers and his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine follows the blueprint of Russian military strategy, as General Wesley Clark so eloquently explains.

Phase 1: Terrorists
Phase 2: Irregular forces
Phase 3: Peace enforcement
Phase 4:  De-escalation

Today's meeting in Berlin between Lavrov, Steinmeier, Fabius, and Klimkin will be a discussion about the implementation of Phase 4 within the Minsk2 protocols.

This de-escalation has, however, been discussed for months without any ceasefire actually taking place. 

Two days ago,

"Oleksander Turchynov (right), secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, said there had been nine ceasefire violations by the rebels in the past 24 hours alone.

"But unlike the previous provocations, the fire was targeted and of high intensity, resulting in five soldiers being wounded," Turchynov said in a statement." (Reuters: November 4,2015) (my emphasis)

Could this 'last ditch provocation' of Putin's soldiers and rebel forces in eastern Ukraine be due to the fact that, as Yuras Karmanau reports,

" The fighting has subsided, but Donetsk is quickly sinking into the past — a shabby Soviet-like state of empty streets and deprivation. Huge portraits of Josef Stalin hanging in the city center only reinforce the impression of failure.
.......
Donetsk's people today live in limbo. Effectively, they're no longer part of Ukraine, but Moscow has refused the rebels' pleas to be incorporated into Russia. Ukraine clamped down on the rebel-held parts of the Donetsk region and the neighboring separatist Luhansk region with a choking economic blockade; pensions and social benefits were cut off and business contacts frozen.
.....
For the officials of the Donetsk People's Republic, as the rebels call themselves, it is a tenuous existence. "We have no annual budget. We form a budget for a month," Ekaterina Matyushchenko, the finance minister.." (Associated Press :November 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this the final end of Putin's 'Novorossiya' dream for Ukraine, as the bodies of those Russians who were tragically killed in Sinai and Sudan are taken back to Russia for burial?

(to be continued)

Putin taking Ukraine to court. A sign of Putin's total failure in eastern Ukraine?

Ian Talley (left) has reported that,

"....Ukraine’s Western allies are preparing to accelerate planned changes to the International Monetary Fund’s lending policies to prevent Russia from stymieing the country’s $25 billion financial rescue package." (Wall Street Journal : Oct. 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin being Putin, if Ukraine's Western allies can 'stymie' his attempt to prevent Ukraine from receiving IMF funds, then he will drag Ukraine through the courts to get the 'BRIBE MONEY' that he gave to Yanukovich to 'scupper' the EU Association Agreement with Ukraine. (cf: The Guardian: Wednesday 18 December 2013)

And so it is that Ukraine and Putin,
 

"...are vowing to fight each other in a London court over a $3 billion bond Vladimir Putin bought to reward his Ukrainian ally, Viktor Yanukovych, for rejecting closer trade ties with the European Union two years ago." (Natasha Doff (left) : Bloomberg Business : October 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Given, however, that it is universally known that Yanukovich stole $ billions from the Ukrainian coffers, and that he now resides in Moscow in comfort and under the protection of Putin himself, is it too far fetched to assume that Putin's banks ALREADY have that bond money stashed in Russian banks, under the name of Yanukovich?

If so then, in effect, Putin himself is now trying to steal $3 billion from the Ukrainian people under the guise of retrieving a loan that he gave to Yanukovich, and that Yanukovich himself stole from the Ukrainian people.

Thus the mealy-mouthed Anton Siluanov (right), Putin's Finance Minister, on 28th October stated that,

"...Moscow would take legal measures if Kiev did not repay the debt on time." (Lidia Kelly : Reuters : 28/10/2015),

yet ...... TWO DAYS LATER then stated that Putin,

" ... expressed concern about a possible rule change by the International Monetary Fund that would enable it to keep lending to Ukraine even if Kyiv defaults on its debt to Russia.

"Russia does not want Ukraine to be left without financial support," Anton Siluanov said on October 30, but Russia is suspicious of the "hastiness" of the rule change at the IMF. " (RFERL : Saturday, October 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

Can we really believe that Putin is sincere in saying that, "Russia does not want Ukraine to be left without financial support". Really?

Whilst many Western political pundits will view this dragging of Ukraine into a British court by Putin as a 'diplomatic manouvre' to keep up his political pressure on Poroshenko, what it really exposes is his petty minded vindictiveness.

Putin simply dare not be seen to have lost in eastern Ukraine. If he has to conform to the full implementation of Minsk2 then, like any thug, he will continue to kick at Ukraine, especially whilst it is economically vulnerable.

To complement his taking Ukraine to court in the UK,

 "Ukraine's former deputy defence minister, Leonid Polyakov, predicts Putin will be back with a new plan on Ukraine....

"Instead of provoking combat engagements they shifted emphasis to training sabotage units and multiple detachments they send one after another to Ukraine just to wreak havoc and undermine trust of population in Ukrainian authorities." (Ukraine Today: Oct. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

And, as Polyakov predicted, Jack Losh reports that,

"Huge blasts have rocked a town in eastern Ukraine after an ammunition depot exploded and a series of fireballs erupted into the night sky.
.......
The Ukrainian security service is investigating the incident as a possible terrorist act, report local media. It is as yet unclear what sparked the massive fire." (The Guardian : Thursday 29 October 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also : Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Fri Oct 30, 2015)

And whilst Putin's 'Spetsnaz' is beginning to wreak havoc in Ukraine, Farangis Najibullah reports that,

"A Russian member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission in eastern Ukraine has lost his job after revealing his bias.

The Ukrainian-language TSN new channel, a partner of Ukraine Today, on October 27 aired video footage of a man identified as Maksim Udovichenko revealing his past as a Russian military officer and giving locals his opinion on the situation in Ukraine. " (RFERL : October 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

It remains to be seen just how much 'wiggle room' Putin now has to extricate himself from his war with Ukraine, without seeming to to have fallen from his mythical pedestal of 'invincibility'.

That his current military support for the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, also seems to have rather 'backfired' on him.

In the words of the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minster Adel Al Jubeir (right),

"Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said Saturday that Russia and Iran must agree to a date and means for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad to quit the country, and to the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria." (AlJazeera : October 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

Will Putin heed the call of the Saudi Foreign Minister and help in the removal of Bashar Al Assad, given that he has publicly stated that his forces in Syria are there to defend Bashar Al Assad against being overthrown?

We can but wait and see.

(to be continued)