Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy is crumbling in his hands

For months now, Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian President, has been calling for the OSCE to have an armed mission in the Russian and rebel held territory of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Now, as we approach the renewal of EU sanctions against Putin in July, the call to hold elections in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine, as called for in Minsk2, is beginning to reach a crescendo.

Significantly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland surprisingly flew into Moscow,

" ... just a day before the Trilateral Contact Group meets in Minsk to try to break a political deadlock over holding elections in Ukraine’s east, known as the Donbas, where Russia-backed rebels control large swathes of territory.
...
The State Department said Nuland would meet with senior Russian government officials to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine and the next steps to implement the Minsk agreements." (Daniel Schearf : VoA : May 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

What is further significant at this point in time is that the need for an armed OSCE monitoring of such elections is now being supported by a growing group of both EU countries and from countries on the international scene.

As reported by Interfax Ukraine,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said that international partners support Ukraine's idea about the deployment of an armed peacekeeping mission in Donbas.
....
"At the moment, the main result that we have achieved is that both the OSCE and our partners from Germany and France, and an absolute majority of OSCE countries, and yesterday there was the statement by the defense minister of Turkey – everyone clearly say that they support Ukraine's position on the deployment of an armed police mission," (Interfax Ukraine : 14.05.2016) (my emphasis)

Even the propaganda sheet of Putin's Russian soldiers and rebels proxies in Donetsk have, interestingly, reported that,

" ... the Minister of National Defense of Turkey Ismet Yylmaz noted that Turkey supports the idea of expansion of the armed police mission under the auspices of OSCE in Donbass." (Dninews : 19.05.2016) (my emphasis)

And in-between reporting these developments, Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine have,

"At dawn, militants used heavy artillery to attack Ukrainian Armed Forces. Near Novomykhailivka pro-Russian separatists shelled from 152 mm artillery systems, near Krasnohorivka – from 82 mm mortars.
During the day, a pro-Russian sniper operated against Ukrainian military in Avdiivka.

In Mariupol direction, near Pavlopol, Ukrainian forces were shelled from 120 mm mortars.
In Luhansk region, militants used grenade launchers and small arms to shell Ukrainian positions near Novozvanivka." (Live 112 TV : 18 May 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Nolan Peterson that,

"The Ukrainian military is not the only group trumpeting warnings about a potential spike in the war.

For weeks, international monitors have reported a slight increase in cease-fire violations around the separatist stronghold of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, as well as sporadic fighting along the length of the 200-mile-long front lines in Ukraine’s southeastern Donbas region, which borders Russia." (Newsweek : 4/10/16) (cf also : OSCE 16/5/2016)

It should also not be forgotten that Putin has ammassed 40,000 Russian troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as his 10,000 Russian troops operating in eastern Ukraine, whilst also carrying the economic burden of supporting his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine.

This raises the critical question of, "How many armed police should be sent to eastern Ukraine to effectively monitor any elections being held there?"

Furthermore, in light of the severe economic recession now gripping Putin's Russia, for how long can Putin allow much needed funds in Russia itself to be drained towards his rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine? 


A year ago it was reported by Anna Dolgov (left) in the Moscow Times that,

"Russia has spent 53 billion rubles from state coffers in the 10 months of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, according to estimates by the head of macroeconomic studies at the esteemed Higher School of Economics, Sergei Aleksashenko, one of the co-authors of the report, according to RBC." (Moscow Times : May. 12 2015)

How much Putin now continues to spend to prop up his soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine is really anybody's guess.

And, unfortunately for Putin, his gamble that the up-coming EU extension of the sanctions against him may be dropped now seems doomed to failure.

As reported by Gabriela Baczynska (left), 

"The European Union is on track to renew economic sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine when they expire in July, though an extension could be contested and only short-term, diplomats and officials said. 
...
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told German newspaper Die Welt on Thursday she expected the energy, financial and defense sanctions to be renewed.
 ...
"If Ukraine does its homework and Russia continues to be an obstacle, then an extension of the sanctions shouldn't be a problem," a senior German official said. "Renzi may not be the big hurdle in the sanctions debate that he has been." (Reuters : Thu May 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

And lest we forget ...

(to be continued) 

Is Putin beginning to wilt? Putin, NATO, and the Eurovision Song Contest.

In my last blogs entry (Saturday, 7 May 2016) I wrote that,

"Putin,  thanks to his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, has woken the sleeping giant of NATO, against which he is now railing."

This has now reached a crescendo, as Ryan Brown (left) of CNN reports.

"The U.S. launched a new ground-based missile defense system in Romania Thursday, sparking fresh tensions with Russia, which quickly blasted the system as a threat to its security.
...
"From the very outset we kept saying that in the opinion of our experts the deployment of an anti-missile defense poses a threat to Russia," Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to the Tass News Agency. "The question is not whether measures will be taken or not; measures are being taken to maintain Russia's security at the necessary level." (CNN : May 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, David Blair and Matthew Day report that,

"Tensions between Russia and the West rose still further on Thursday when Nato declared that a missile defence site in Romania had become operational.

A battery of American SM-3 interceptors, designed to shoot down incoming missiles, was activated at Deveselu military base. A similar facility is due to become operational in Poland in 2018." (The Telegraph : 12 May 2016) (my emphasis)

They further report that,

"An opinion poll published in the Polish press on Thursday found that most Poles now favour a return to conscription because of fears of Russian aggression.

Poland ditched conscription in 2008, but Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine appear to have persuaded many of the country’s people that it should now return. The survey showed that 58 per cent of Poles were now in favour of conscription while only 34 per cent were against." (ibid David Blair and Matthew Day) (my emphasis) (right: An RS-24 inter-continental ballistic missile is paraded through Moscow.)

Tyler Durden also reports that,

"There is, of course, a far simpler response. Recall that in November 2008, then Russian president Dmitry Medvedev made a stark warning to NATO: "Russia will deploy Iskander missile systems in its enclave in Kaliningrad to neutralize, if necessary, the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe." We also reported in 2013 that in a seeming escalation as the ballistic shield appeared on its way to completion, there were unconfirmed reports that Russia had deployed a "double-digit" amount of SS-26 mobile units within Kaliningrad." (Zero Hedge : 05/12/2016)

 

Adding to Putin's woes,

"In a little covered news story that could have major ramifications for the geopolitical landscape, the new Supreme Allied Commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, U.S. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, (left) says the alliance should possibly arm Ukraine in its struggle against pro-Russian separatists in East Ukraine. This is a game changer for the Kremlin and for U.S.-Russian relations." (L. Todd Wood : The War Monitor (..with permission from The Washington Times) : May 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

These developments are forcing Putin and his Kremlin kleptocrats to redouble their efforts to further meddle in the politics of the EU, to ensure that those EU politicians 'sympathetic' towards him in Britain and Germany in particular are given centre-stage in his propaganda onslaught towards EU voters.

In 2014 Roland Oliphant reported that,

"Russia could seek to destabilise vast areas of eastern Europe if it is not challenged in Ukraine, Angela Merkel has warned.

The strongly worded statement came as Ukraine's president warned of a resumption of "total war" in the strife-torn country's east." (The Telegraph : 17 Nov 2014) (my emphasis)

And yesterday, Ruth Forsyth reports that,

"Among the multiple crises currently taking place on the European continent, another serious threat has been unfolding. Russia is actively seeking to harm and destabilize Germany." (Newsweek : 16 May, 2016) (my emphasis)

She further reports that,

"Throughout the Ukraine crisis, Russia has increased its espionage activity in Germany and other European states. According to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s domestic security agency, Russia has been subversively employing two tactics formerly used by the Soviet KGB: destabilization and misinformation." (ibid Ruth Forsyth)

She concludes that,

"Russia’s poisonous campaign requires a direct and visible response from Germany’s top leadership. For example, Chancellor Merkel should address the German public and explain the threat that Russian activities represent to the security and stability of Germany." (ibid Ruth Forsyth) (my emphasis) 

The 'cherry on the cake' of Putin's current woes is, of all things, the Eurovision Song Contest.

Russia was the bookies favourite to win this years' Eurovision Song Contest. As Joe Fidgen explained,

"...one reason for this is that it [Russia] has spared no expense to produce an expertly staged performance. Winning Eurovision seems to have become a national priority, but why?
...
The verdict of the BBC Eurovision Twitter account after Russian contestant Sergey Lazarev's successful semi-final performance on Tuesday was "Olympic staging" and "Everything but the kitchen sink".  (BBC News : 13 May 2016) (my emphasis)

And then, horror of horrors,

"Jamala of Ukraine on Sunday won the immensely popular Eurovision Song Contest with a somber, controversial tune that evokes Moscow's deportation of members of her Crimean ethnic group during World War II." (Steve Almasy : CNN : May 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

From the Russian Duma to a veritable plethora of Russian 'political' pundits there emerged all sorts of 'conspiracy' theories about why Russia was denied the winning of the Eurovision Song Contest this year.

How will Putin and his corrupt Kremlin kleptocrats react if Russia is denied an international stage at the upcoming Olympics in Rio De Janeiro?

(to be continued)

Putin's 'bluster' is hiding his fears for himself.

Putin,  thanks to his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, has woken the sleeping giant of NATO, against which he is now railing.

As reported by Sky News,

"Russia says NATO's military build-up in the Baltic states is "absolutely unjustified", while Poland claims President Vladimir Putin's nation is a bigger threat than Islamic State.

Moscow's ambassador to Brussels suggested relations between Russia and the alliance were "very bad" in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine." (Sky News : Friday 15 April 2016) (my emphasis)

The bluster with which he initially announced the building of the bridge to span the Kerch strait between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea has now changed to a whimper.

As reported by Andrew Osborn,

"Russia has pushed back the completion date of a showcase multi-billion dollar bridge to link the Russian mainland with annexed Crimea by one year, saying the original plan had to be adjusted to take account of the weight of the trains that will cross it.

 ......

Minutes of a meeting Putin held with ministers last month during a visit to the construction site for the bridge - dubbed "Putin's bridge" by some Russians - show the president was informed about the delay at the time and was initially unhappy with what he heard." (Yahoo News (Reuters) : April 13, 2016)

As an elderly lady in Ukrainian Crimea commented,

"Who cares about the bridge?," one elderly lady feeding cats in a local park said when asked what she felt about it.

"They can't even repair the road behind you," said the woman, who declined to give her name for fear of retribution. "Let them start with that."

Other locals were skeptical that the Crimean authorities would do their part on time, pointing to an ordinary road bridge in Kerch which has stood unfinished for years." (Andrew Osborn : Reuters : Mon Apr 18, 2016) (my emphasis) 

Is it this 'anger' of Putin at not being able to build his "bridge" on time that led his security forces to invade mosques all over Ukrainian Crimea yesterday?

As reported by UNIAN,

"Armed men arrived at the mosque in the settlement of Molodyozhne in Simferopol district and attempted to take away nearly a hundred Muslim locals after a prayer in the mosque, according to a Crimean Tatar lawyer Emil Kurbedinov’s posting on Facebook.

.....At the same time, Krym.Realii online media outlet wrote that the Russian security forces in the occupied Crimea were carrying out ID checks in mosques." (UNIAN : 06.05.2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin continues to pour arms into the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine, as reported by Daniel Sharkov.

"A video that appears to show pro-Russian rebels moving heavy weapons toward the contact line with Ukrainian troops is adding fuel to warnings by independent observers that neither side is upholding the withdrawal agreement." (Newsweek : 5/4/16 ) (my emphasis) (picture right: Column Of Military Vehicles In Lugansk)

Fighting continues to erupt between Putin's forces and those of the Ukrainian military, despite a 'ceasefire' that is supposed to be in place, as reported by Reuters (Saturday, April 30, 2016)

Which throws into strong relief why that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier, is still pushing for elections to be held in the Donbas whilst Putin's soldiers and rebel-proxies seem to be 'upping the ante' as if in preparation for a summer asssault against Mariupol.

Steinmeier has,

" .... invited foreign ministers to meet in Berlin May 11 to discuss the preparation of local elections in eastern Ukraine..." (Laurens Cerulus : Politico : May 1st 2016) (my emphasis)

Given the fact that Putin's bridge across the Kerch strait is now faltering, and that the capture of Mariupol will be the creation of a land-link between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea, is it any wonder that Putin is accelerating his supply of arms to his 10,000 Russian soldiers supporting his rebel-proxies in the Donbas? 

How can elections be held in the Donbas under these conditions? 

This 'diplomatic' ploy of Steinmeier has NOTHING to do with elections but EVERYTHING to do with setting the scene in the EU for the ENDING of  EU sanctions against Putin and his 'kleptocratic' siloviki and Kremlin cronies in July of this year.

The pressure by Putin's supporters in the EU for the ending of EU sanctions against Putin's Russia, especially in Germany, Italy, and France, is increasing to a point where their renewal in July of this year is becoming highly questionable.

And, no matter how you slice or dice it, the Russian economy is nose-diving.

"Experts predict decline of Russia's GDP in 2016 to 1.9% instead of the previous 1.2%, said in EC report in the spring.

At the same time the European Commission has worsened the forecast for GDP growth in Russia in 2017 - up to 0.5% from 0.3%.

"The main factors influencing on the Russian economy, will continue to be the geopolitical situation, a weak rise in oil prices, as well as the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia", the report says." (Cəfər Ağadadaşov (right): Report News Agency : 03 May, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder, as reported on 'Johnson's Russia List', that,

"Consumer confidence in Russia fell to 63 points in the first quarter of this year on Nielsen’s Consumer Confidence Index, the lowest level since records began in 2005, the Kommersant newspaper reported Friday.
...
As Russia continues to experience economic recession, the real wages of Russians shrank 9.5 percent in 2015. This year, the trend continued with 3.9 percent in real wages year-on -year in the first quarter of 2016, according to the Rosstat state statistics service."

“The continuing decline in real incomes means that Russians’ consumer activity will remain low in the near future,” (Johnson's Russia List : May 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is the 'hidden agenda' of Walter Steinmeier to get EU sanctions against Russia dropped simply to help his 'friend' Putin out of the recessive economic vice in which he now finds himself?

And lest we forget .... 

Putin is building a 'fortress army' around himself and his kleptocratic siloviki and Kremlin cronies.

(to be continued)

Putin's "spoiling for a fight" is simply to protect himself and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'

As in the case at the beginning of Spring in 2015,

 "The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has dismissed any likelihood of a war with Ukraine, describing it as an "apocalyptic scenario".
Speaking on Russian television, Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 24 February 2015) (my emphasis)

At this time, a year ago, the Ukrainian forces were weak and disorganised. Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies attacked Debatltseve with overwhelming force, driving out the Ukrainian forces.

Things have, however, changed. The Ukrainian army has, during the past year, received training from the US, Canada, Britain, and many other EU states, and is no longer the weak army that Putin confronted in February of last year.

And yet Putin and his armed forces are once again repeating their strategy of a year ago. 

As reported by the OSCE mission in eastern Ukraine,

"The SMM continued to record a high number of ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It continued to follow up on civilian fatalities sustained by shelling in Olenivka and reports on people wounded in the incident. The Mission found no information to confirm media reports about casualties resulting from a trip wire explosion in Stanytsia Luhanska. The SMM observed the presence of numerous weapons in violation of the respective withdrawal lines on both sides of the contact line." (OSCE : 28 April 2016) (my emphasis)

Even Angela Merkel,

"... said on Sunday that a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine was not stable, adding that she and U.S. President Barack Obama had discussed ways to ensure the Minsk peace deal is implemented." (Andreas Rinke : Reuters : Sun Apr 24, 2016)

Why are Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine ramping up their ceasefire violations?

Is it any co-incidence that this is happening on the eve of the Russian,

".... Orthodox Easter Sunday and covers holidays that include labour day on May 1 and the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany during World War II marked on May 9."? (Aljazeera : 30 Apr 2016)

Is this yet another example of Putin ramping up fervent Russian war-nationalism against Ukraine as a protection mechanism for himself and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'? 

"According to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, a train with military equipment, including three tanks, two 122mm Grad multiple-launch rocket system, two Ural military trucks and 160 tons of gas oil, has arrived to the railway station of Debaltseve, a town which saw intense fighting during January-February 2015." (UT : Apr. 17, 2016)

 

Lauren Goodrich (left), Stratfor Senior Eurasia Analyst, has also revealed that,

"According to our information, Russia has deployed about 40,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. In the meantime, these people stay within the territory of Russia. NATO officials have confirmed this information. 

However, it is difficult to say exactly how many Russian servicemen are fighting in Donbas. According to recent data, three and four brigades of Russian regular forces are now stationed in eastern Ukraine. It means that about 10,000 Russian servicemen are involved in the hostilities", (UT : Apr. 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, the current German president of the OSCE, is once again pushing foreward Putin's agenda by setting up Berlin talks that,

" .... would look to the preparation of local elections in eastern Ukraine with “concrete proposals now on the table” alongside “interesting re-stabilization proposals” from the Organization for the Security and Co-operation in Europe (OECD)." (Japan Times : May 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

With approximately 10,000 Russian soldiers in Donbas, how can 'free and fair' elections be held in eastern Ukraine? 

As Isabela Cocoli reports,

"A top Ukrainian official said that elections in eastern Ukraine will be possible only after Ukraine's sovereignty is renewed in the region and Russia's presence is eliminated in those territories.

....

In a broader sense, deputy speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, Oksana Syroyid said,

"Russian de-occupation should include eliminating the impact of Russian propaganda, reconciliation of all the people in Ukraine's Donbass region and the withdrawal of all Russian agents from the area." (VoA : April 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is threatening Sweden if it ever tries to join NATO, (cf. also: UT : Apr. 29, 2016)

 

" ... Former Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrei Kozyrev (left with Bill Clinton) accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of illegally invading Crimea and fomenting war in the Donbas region." (UT : Apr. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to Putin's denials of a year ago, as well as his 'weasel-mouthed' words about there being no Russian troops in the Donbas.

"Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine" (ibid BBC News : February 2015)

It is therefore no wonder that, as Brian Stewart (right) writes,

"You can tell tension has risen to a very serious state of jitters when NATO feels the need for Cold War-style hotlines with Moscow to prevent sudden, armed clashes in eastern Europe.
...
The Ukrainian government, meanwhile, has called up another 10,000 soldiers to add to the 250,000 now under arms and appears worried the Russian-backed rebel armies are preparing for a major summer offensive. 
...
That view is not only shared but expanded upon by Poland, Ukraine's neighbour, which insists Moscow also has hostile intent against itself as well as other NATO members in the Baltic region." (CBC NEWS:  Apr 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

And let us not forget the internal Russian preparations that Putin is making to confront any tide of rebellion against him by the Russian people themselves.

(to be continued)

Putin and his 'kleptocratic' siloviki have painted themselves into a corner.

In my last blog entry (14 April, 2016) I wrote that,

"Russia has announced it will now form a new paramilitary fighting force, the National Guard, which can effectively be used for non-conventional warfare if need be. This comes as the Russian Federation is heavily involved in ongoing conflicts in both Ukraine and Syria among other countries." (Chris Tomson : AMN : 09/04/2016) (my emphasis)

This National Guard will be directly answerable to Putin himself, and will become a substitute for the current Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine. This para-military force is indistinguishable from the Russian armed forces, as was the case during the Chechen wars, primarily to make their presence less controversial than his Russian soldiers now active in eastern Ukraine.

Rather timely, we now have Gorbachev, emerging from the woodwork, describing in an interview that,

" .... the Ukrainian crisis [is] “an abscess that sends fever through Europe and the whole world” and has called for an urgent meeting between the Russian and American presidents to secure a peaceful settlement to the issue" (RT : 21 Apr, 2016)(my emphasis)

This "abscess", as Gorbachev so directly describes Putin's war with Ukraine, is what Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (right) precisely pointed out at the first formal meeting of the Nato-Russia Council in almost two years, stating that,

 " .... the two sides "disagree on the facts, the narrative and the responsibilities" on Ukraine."

Furthermore that,

"This is Russia destabilising eastern Ukraine, providing support for the separatists, munitions, funding, equipment and also command and control." (BBC News : 20 April 2016) (my emphasis)

Underscoring what Gorbachev said, Putin's forces are playing a rather dangerous game with NATO forces in the Baltic sea.

"Two Russian planes flew close to a US guided missile destroyer almost a dozen times, American officials have said. ..... The [Russian] aircraft did not respond to safety warnings in English or Russian." (BBC News : 13 April 2016)

These provocations from Putin, when viewed against the recent creation of his private army, the so-called National Guard, could indicate that Putin and his kleptocratic clique are beginning to worry over internal dissent and, more particularly, the looming elections in Russia.

We should all cast our minds back to the Moscow apartment bombings in September 1999, when Putin was the then Prime Minister of Russia, and which Alexander Litvinenko (amongst others)  publicly exposed that these bombings,

".. were a false flag attack coordinated by the FSB in order to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya" (Wikipedia)

It is also no co-incidence that during the Chechen war, Putin's public approval rating skyrocketed, and in 2000 he was elected president of Russia for the first time. 

Is this the template of actions that Putin is now putting in place to pre-empt any threat to his power?

Is this why he has set up his private army, the National Guard, to create 'false flag' operations in Russia, and to then legitimise any crackdown on the Russian people under the guise of trying to 'weed out terrorists'?

Furthermore, is Putin's new National Guard also being created to draw out his war with Ukraine for a few more years?

As reported by AFP,

"Ukraine's defence minister warned Wednesday it may take years to settle the ex-Soviet republic's pro-Russian separatist conflict that has killed nearly 9,200 people and plunged Moscow's relations with the West to a post-Cold War low.

...

"In my opinion, it will take years," [Stepan] Poltorak (left) told a small group of reporters when asked how long it may take to resolve the war." (Yahoo News (AFP) : April 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Poroshenko recently stated that,

"No talks on lifting Western sanctions against Russia should take place until Moscow completely withdraws its military presence from Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko said on Thursday.

Any sanctions relief in return for a partial fulfillment by Russia of the conditions of the Minsk peace deal "will be a direct threat to solving the situation in Donbass," the region of eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian separatists are battling Ukrainian government forces." (Yahoo News (Reuters) : April 21, 2016) (my emphasis)

However, will Putin's 'friends' in the EU be willing to extend EU sanctions against Putin when they come up for renewal in July?

                                                  

 

But whilst German industry (right above: Dietrich Moller (Siemens)) and the Austrian president (left above) want EU sanctions against Russia to be removed, both Canada and the US want sanctions against Russia to be increased.

Is it this fact that also underlies Gorbachev's plea for an urgent meeting between Putin and Obama to secure a 'peaceful settlement' of the war in Ukraine?

Or is it the fact that,

"Ukraine's newly-appointed representative to the EU, Mykola Tochytskyi, says he expects Brussels to support the full entry into force of the association agreement" (Martin Banks : News: 19 April 2016), 

and that,

"The Dutch parliament has defeated a motion calling for the country to pull out of a treaty establishing closer European Union ties with Ukraine. " (RFERL : April 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The European Commission has officially proposed visa liberalisation for Ukraine. The revelant document was published on the website of the institution on April 20. According to it, Kyiv has satisfied all the requirements needed for visa-free travel for Ukrainians across Europe." (UT : Apr. 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

What these developments show is that Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy to stymie Ukraine's economic integration with the EU has failed, notwithstanding his 'covert' political and propaganda suppport of the Dutch right-wing and left-wing during their referendum electioneering.

Events now seem to be closing in upon Putin. 

Not only has he now to let his new National Guard 'watch his back' in Russia itself, his failed attempt to get the Ukraine-EU Trade Pact completely stalled is fast diminishing his options of de-railing the integration of Ukraine into the EU.

And lest we forget, 

"Russia and Ukraine’s presidents discussed the fate of Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko, and the two Russian servicemen captured in Ukraine, in a phone call on Monday." ( Damien Sharkov (right): Newsweek : 4/19/16) 

 

Is an exchange of prisoners in the offing?

(to be continued)

Is Putin preparing for a Russian revolt against him?

As the international headlines were recently overwhelmed by the leak of, and analysis of, the Panama Papers, the ceasefire in Ukraine continues to be fragile.

As reported yesterday,

"According to the press center of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as of 18:00 local time, Ukrainian positions had been fired on 32 times on Wednesday, Interfax reported.
"During the day the intensity of the use of weapons by Russian militants against Ukrainian soldiers was high in the zone of the ATO [Donbas region] where 32 cases of ceasefire violations were recorded,” the press center reported on its Facebook page.
15 attacks were recorded around Avdiivka, where Ukrainian positions came under mortar and small arms fire" (Uawire : Wednesday, April 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Underlining this continuous ceasefire violations by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine,

"Russia has announced it will now form a new paramilitary fighting force, the National Guard, which can effectively be used for non-conventional warfare if need be. This comes as the Russian Federation is heavily involved in ongoing conflicts in both Ukraine and Syria among other countries." (Chris Tomson : AMN : 09/04/2016) (my emphasis)

This National Guard will be directly answerable to Putin himself, and will become a substitute for the current Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine. This para-military force is indistinguishable from the Russian armed forces, as was the case during the Chechen wars, primarily to make their presence less controversial than his Russian soldiers now active in eastern Ukraine.

This new para-military force of Putin's also signifies a growing anxiety of Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clique about the growing discontent among the Russian people because of their increasing impoverishment as the Russian economy continues on its downward spiral. (cf:

As reported by Jim Atkins,

"The World Bank says 19.2 million from a population of 143.8 million now live in poverty – just over 13% of the population.
The reason, according to the report, is the country is in decline for two main reasons:

• The stranglehold of international sanctions following Russia’s annexation of The Crimea and continuing military action against The Ukraine

• A hit from falling oil prices – Russia is one of the world’s major producers and has seen revenues plunge on the international markets" (iexpats : April 8, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Jasmine C. Lee (NY Times) Lee: April 12, 2016)

Whilst Putin is preparing his new National Guard to suppress the Russian people from revolting against their growing impoverishment, Russian truckers have not yet ended their strike against increased taxes against them.

 

Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian front, Turkey and Ukraine are deepening their economic and scientific co-operation.

Burak Ege Bekdil reports that,

"Turkey and Ukraine have agreed to share technology in order to jointly develop and build satellites, Turkish military officials said....
...
A military official said the memorandum of understanding also involves cooperation to advance aerospace industry work in the future.
“We are pleased to observe that Ukraine is keen to share and develop technology with a NATO member state,” a Turkish procurement official said. “We think we can efficiently cooperate in developing international [NATO] standard systems.” (Defense News : April 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

So whilst Putin is setting up a para-military force to keep the Russian people under control as the declining Russian economy continues to impoverish them, the economy of Ukraine, whilst fragile, continues, albeit slowly, to grow.

There are, however, the usual suspects in the EU, who are clamouring for the EU sanctions against Russia to be lifted.

Dietrich Moller (right), the president of Siemes in Russia, has stated that,

“Siemens is not engaged in politics, our company stands for a favorable business environment and removing sanctions that create an adverse business climate,” (RT : 13 Apr, 2016) (my emphasis)


Then there are the Austrians.

"A few days ago Austrian business leader Christoph Leitl (left) criticized anti-Russian sanctions, saying they had proved unsuccessful. Leitl said Russia with its raw materials and Europe with its expertise would complement each other perfectly." (RT : 6 April, 2016) (my emphasis)

The Austrian President, Heinz Fischer (right), also had this to say whilst recently meeting with State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin in Moscow.

"I always say that sanctions are disadvantageous for both sides," Fischer said at Wednesday’s meeting with Russia's State Duma Speaker Sergey Naryshkin. "It is important to find a way to lift them in the near future." (RT : 6 April, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst German industry and the Austrian president want EU sanctions against Russia to be removed,bothe Canada and the US want sanctions against Russia to be increased.

"Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion (left) says Canada insists that collective sanctions against Russia either be maintained or strengthened, according to portal Macleans." (UT : Mar. 29, 2016) (my emphasis),

whilst,

"The U.S. plans to search the millions of documents leaked from a Panamanian law firm  for information about people who may have helped companies or individuals evade sanctions related to Russia's role in destabilizing Ukraine, a person familiar with the matter said.
......
The [US] Treasury could release a new list [of sanctioned Russian individuals close to Putin] as early as June, which would coincide with the expected timing of the next vote by European Union countries on whether to extend their sanctions against Russia, matching the coordinated timing of the last two expansions." (Alan Katz (right): Bloomberg : April 6, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin may have somewhat tried to cover his tracks by hiding the money that he stole from the Russian people, using his 'kleptocratic cabal' from his days in St. Petersberg in the 1990's, and behind which he now conceals himself as the ultimate owner of all those stolen billions of dollars.

But the tangled web of deception that he has tried to weave is now beginning to unravel itself.

(to be continued)

Putin, the Panama Papers, and the Dutch referendum

This week saw two significant events occur which have both an indirect and a direct bearing on Putin's war with Ukraine.

First there was the release of what has come to be known as The Panama Papers. From Beijing to Riyadh to Moscow to London to Reykjavic to New York; the wealthy of the world have not been sleeping easy since the lair where they squirrelled away their money, in the hope that their financial secrets would be far from the prying eyes of everyone else, has been made public internationally.

This has also led Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (left), to invent a new psychological condition called "Putinphobia". As Shivdeep Dhaliwal so succinctly puts it,

"The Kremlin has of course seized the moment  to offer vehement denials, including using the word “Putinphobia”.

Dmitry Peskov, the President’s spokesman said, “It’s clear that the level of Putinphobia has reached a level at which it is impossible to speak well of Russia, and it’s required to speak ill of Russia”.(The Cointelegraph : 2016-04-06) (my emphasis)

But the facts speak for themselves.

The second event is the outcome of the Dutch referendum that ostensibly was about the Dutch ratification of Ukraine's Trade Agreement with the EU, but rather was about more broader issues, specifically about the EU itself.

As Joris Luyendijk explains,

"What did these voters mean, and does their vote represent a clear repudiation of the European project – as was quickly claimed by both the anti-EU campaigner Geert Wilders and the Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage?" (The Guardian : Friday 8 April 2016) (my emphasis) (left: Farage and Wilders)

Looking at the initial instigators of this Dutch referendum we discover a rather strange and motley crew.

"The organisers of the Dutch referendum were highly controversial. The referendum was the initiative of GeenStijl (“No Style”), an immensely successful blog whose outlook and methods are a mix of Charlie Hebdo, Jackass and Gawker.

It was joined by a prominent young philosopher called Thierry Baudet, who recently published a book exploring “female masturbation, sexual emancipation, and the crisis of masculinity in modern times”.

This motley crew of attention-seekers campaigned alongside the far left Socialist party – currently polling better than the Social Democrats. And of course with Wilders, who is currently under investigation for incitement after asking a crowd of supporters whether they “wanted more or fewer Moroccans” (ibid Joris Luyendijk) (my emphasis)

What BOTH of these events have done for Ukraine is to galvanise Poroshenko and his government into accelerating in dealing with the pressing issue of 'corruption' in Ukraine. 

No longer can they now drag their feet in rooting out the burden of the rampant corruption in Ukraine that the Maidan protestors were clamouring for and which, to date, has led to many deaths in Ukraine's war with Putin's Russia, besides those who were gunned down at Maidan.
 

 

Putin may be rubbing his hands with glee at the 'No' vote in this referendum but, as the old saying goes, "He Who Laughs Last, Laughs the Best'.

The sting in the tail for Putin is the fact that 'corruption' in Ukraine now has to be truly rooted out, and the Ukrainian public must be able to see that this is being done.

Added to which,

"The Nato-Russia Council will convene in the next two weeks to discuss the peace process in eastern Ukraine, as well as the situation in Afghanistan.

But Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) warned that it was not a "return to business as usual".

Nato announced last month that an extra armoured brigade would be deployed in eastern Europe, meaning a total of three will be there on a continuous basis. (BBC : 8 April 2016) (my emphasis)

But let me leave you with these facts:

(to be continued)