Has Putin really "backtracked" on assigning Minsk2 to the dustbin of history?

The dust is beginning to settle on the G20 summit in China and, as per usual, many "behind-the-scenes" meetings were held, including those between Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, as well as that between President Obama and Putin.

Putin had hoped that this summit, showing himself hobnobbing with the leaders of the world and, hopefully, "cutting deals" with them over Ukraine by playing his "Syria Card", would once again propel him positively onto the world stage and boost his image on Russian State Controlled TV just 2 weeks ahead of the Duma elections in Russia..

 

Unfortunately for him, things did not quite work out as he expected.

As Barney Henderson reports,

"Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin held what the US president described as a “candid, blunt and businesslike” meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, on Monday.


Photographs suggested that the exchange between two of the most powerful men in the world had been frosty, and Mr Obama said afterwards that "gaps of trust" between the rival powers had hindered negotiations." (The Telegraph : 5 September 2016) (my emphasis)

Not quite what Putin was expecting from President Obama, soon to retire in two months time from the Oval Office.

Putin's gambit that he could "cut a deal" with President Obama over Ukraine by playing his "Syria card", just before President Obama leaves the Oval Office, fell on stony ground. (cf also: UT Aug. 18, 2016)

Now Angela Merkel had to tread rather carefully in light of President Obama's “candid, blunt and businesslike” meeting with Putin.

Her meeting with Putin was rather less frosty,  following in the footsteps of the outdated 'Ostpolitik' of Willy Brandt.

During this meeting she supported President Obama with her renewed public appeal to Putin,

"....to enable a cease-fire in Syria and humanitarian access to the city of Aleppo. Merkel said Monday that "this is of extreme urgency." 

She said she had made that clear during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin Sunday night on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit" (Mail Online (Associated Press) : 5 September 2016)

On Ukraine, however, the same 'Ostpolitik' mantra about the implementation of Minsk2 was trotted out.

As reported by UNIAN,

"German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said Putin and Merkel also spoke [for nearly two hours late on September 4] "very concretely" about the conflict in Ukraine and how to implement the Minsk agreement, a cease-fire and peace plan aimed at resolving the war in eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN : 05 September 2016)

Let us recall, however, that Putin himself, after that FSB-staged sabotage attack in Ukrainian Crimea, had already relegated the Normandy Format meetings and Minsk2 to the dustbin of history.

As reported by TASS, 

MOSCOW, August 10. / TASS /. Vladimir Putin considers pointless to hold a meeting in the Normandy format on the background of attempts to arrange a terrorist attack saboteurs Ukrainian in Crimea. President assured that more serious measures will be taken to ensure security on the peninsula, and Moscow will not leave unanswered the killing of its military saboteurs to Ukraine." (Tass : August 10, 2016) [Google Translate]

No doubt, those Minsk2 defined "elections" that are supposed to be held in the warzone of Donbas was a central feature of that 2 hour meeting she had with Putin on the sidelines of G20.

And it should therefore come as no surprise that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he will likely “have to meet” again with Ukraine’s president for peace talks, despite pulling out of “senseless” negotiations last month.

 
Putin said he and the leaders of France and Germany—Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel—discussed Ukraine over the weekend, when he was urged to return to negotiations with the Ukraine government, brokered by them." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 5 September, 2016) (my emphasis) 

Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine Foreign Secretary, best describes the total absurdity (cf: Deutsche Welle : 1st Sept., 2016) of implementing Clause 4 of Minsk2 BEFORE implementing Clause 10.

• 04. On the first day after the pullout [of heavy weapons] a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.

• 10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

 

So why has Putin suddenly backtracked on Ukraine despite his G20 charm offensive?

As reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Despite his apparent charm offensive, Putin’s meeting with Ukraine’s Western allies yielded little headway for Moscow.

Speaking to journalists Monday, Putin said he was resigned to return to four-way talks on Ukraine “whether they are good or bad, there are still no other initiatives to regulate the conflict.” (ibid Damien Sharkov) (my emphasis)

Extreme caution should be exercised when Putin says that he was "resigned" to do the opposite of what he initially did.

Perhaps an indication of this caution is exemplified by the fact that,

"Russia's leading independent polling agency has been labelled a "foreign agent" by the justice ministry and says it cannot now work.

 

The Levada Centre surveys political opinion among Russian people.

Its director, Lev Gudkov (right), said the move, which comes two weeks before parliamentary elections, amounted to "political censorship". (BBC News : 5 September 2016) (my emphasis)

Then, of course, we have Putin's military,

"... [launching] large-scale military drills on Ukraine's eastern border and around Ukraine’s Russia-annexed Crimean Peninsula.

The Russian Defense Ministry said September 5 that 12,500 servicemen are taking part in the drills across its southern military region. It said the Russian Navy in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea are participating in the exercises and that planes also are being used." (RFERL (AFP & Reuters) : Tuesday, September 06, 2016)

The question now is, given that Putin’s meeting with Ukraine’s Western allies yielded little headway for Moscow,

"Has Putin really 'backtracked' on assigning Minsk2 and the Normandy Four format to the dustbin of history?"

(to be continued)

While little Lithuania militarily supports Ukraine, Merkel's and Steinmeier's outdated 'Ostpolitik' diplomatically supports Putin.

On  Tuesday 25th November, 2014, I wrote that,

"It is also about time that Merkel ends the rather suspicious 'special' relationship that she has with Putin. Those tete-a-tete's, those private conversations that she has with Putin, sometimes until 1.30am in the morning, rather belies her 'incredulity' about his 'open' invasion of eastern Ukraine and his behaviour on the international stage."

What is now emerging, as reported in RT (November 23, 2014) is that Germany's Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has stated in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine that,

•  he is against Ukraine joining NATO
•  he does not believe it is realistic for Ukraine to join the European Union in the foreseeable future, as the economic and political modernization of Ukraine is a “project for a few generations.”  (my emphasis)
• it is possible for NATO to have a partnership with Ukraine, but not membership" (blog entry : 25/11/2014)

Since that time I have always been at pains to point out that Walter Steinmeier has, since the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and the invasion of eastern Ukraine, always been 'soft on Putin'.

Indeed, as recently as 3rd July, 2016, I wrote that,

"Let us cast our minds back a few weeks, and recall that,

"I hope that by the end of June there will be progress and then we can see if we can reduce the [EU]sanctions [against Russia] step by step, or if we stay with the measures we have right now," Steinmeier told reporters on a visit to Tallinn on May 27." (Turkish Weekly : June 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Also bear in mind that,

 

"Walter Steinmeier was, under former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder, responsible for co-ordinating Germany's intelligence services, (Wikipedia), (right: Steinmeier and Schröder) the very same Gerhard Schröder who now works for Putin's Gazprom ..."

And now, suddenly, many critics are beginning to question,

"German Foreign Minister's recent series of comments about working closer with Russia, with some labelling the diplomat a "Russia-sympathizer" (cf: Putinversteher May 10th 2014)

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier continued to push his ideas for détente towards Russia on Monday, arguing for better relations between the two countries at a conference in Berlin.

"We cannot simply wish away a Russia that has become immensely more difficult," he said, calling for Germany and Russia to go from "a phase of confrontation and growing tensions, back to a reliable understanding of common security". (The Local : Aug. 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"While Merkel earlier this summer blamed Russia’s actions in Ukraine for a breakdown of trust with Nato, Steinmeier himself appeared to point a finger at Nato, warning it in June against " “warmongering”.
....
Outside of Germany, its neighbours in Poland have expressed their own concerns about Germany’s relationship with Mother Russia. (ibid The Local) (my emphasis)

How does the Putinversteher Steinmeier see an end to Putin's war with Ukraine?

By having those Putin-designed elections in the current warzone of the Donbas! 

"Despite intensive endeavours, there has been no tangible progress either as regards improving the security situation in eastern Ukraine or on reaching the necessary consensus on local elections." Steinmeier said. (UT : Aug. 14, 2016)

Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, best describes the total absurdity of holding elections in the current Donbas warzone in an interview with Deutsche Welle (01.09.2016 ).

 

But perhaps even more disconcerting,

"German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has reiterated that Russia should be returned to the G8 group of states, but it depends on the country's role in settling conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.

"The conflicts in Syria and Ukraine show that it is in our interest not to exclude Russia from the close cooperation of the major economies," Steinmeier said in an interview to the German RND." (UT : Aug. 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst the mask is fast slipping from the face of Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday, August 29, she supported lifting the sanctions from Russia. At the same time, she reminded that the restriction termination was linked to the implementation of the Minsk agreements." (UT : Aug. 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

Merkel's caveat about "the implementation of the Minsk agreements" rings rather hollow since just recently it was announced that,

"Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov has announced that no meeting in the Normandy format between the presidents of Germany, France and Russia is scheduled on the sidelines of the G20 summit in China, the leaders will have separate meetings, according to Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

...

Poroshenko during a telephone conversation offered to use the Hangzhou summit for the purpose of holding a top-level meeting in the Normandy format. The meeting was not agreed upon, and after the known events in Crimea [Putin] clearly voiced his attitude to such possible contact. We refused even to consider such a possibility," he added." (UNIAN : 30 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'tough guy' stance, however, is rebounding on him.

As stated by the new advisor to the Ukrainian President, Anders Fogh Rasmussen,

 

"If Russia shirks its commitment to fulfilling the Minsk agreements and continues to destabilize the Donbas, Western countries and NATO can provide Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons, former NATO Secretary-General (2009-2014) and current new advisor to the Ukrainian President Anders Fogh Rasmussen (right) said in his interview with Apostrophe." (UT : Sep. 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Lithuania says it has supplied lethal weaponry to Ukraine for the first time since 2014.

About 150 tonnes of ammunition were handed over to Ukraine on Friday, mostly 5.45 caliber cartridges for various modifications of Kalashnikov AK-47 rifle which the Lithuanian army no longer uses, a spokesman for country's Joint Chiefs of Staff told Reuters." (Reuters : Sat Sep 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

...
"We are sending a message to Ukraine that it is not alone," Lithuanian Defence Minister Juozas Olekas told Reuters." (Mail Online : 3 September 2016)(my emphasis)

It is rather ironic that Lithuania is standing with Ukraine, whilst Germany's Walter Steinmeier and Angela Merkel are diplomatically supporting Putin.

But then, of course, we have Angela Merkel admiring that minor German princess, Sophie Friederike Auguste von Anhalt-Zerbst-Dornburg (Wikipedia), who became Catherine the Great of Russia through marriage and who also, like Putin,

" ..... issued a formal proclamation of annexation [of CRIMEA] on 19 April [O.S. 8 April] 1783." (Wikipedia)

Couple this with the fact that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier is the current Chairman of the OSCE and the political child of his mentor, former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder, you can understand why eyebrows are now being raised at German diplomacy becoming extremely chummy with Russia.

(to be continued)

Is Putin on the brink?

In May of 2014, Paul Gregory (left) reported that,

"Putin's 'Human Rights Council' Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results

Quoting from that report [president-sovet.ru ]

“In Crimea, according to various indicators, 50-60% voted for unification with Russia with a voter turnout (yavka) of 30-50%.” This leads to a range of between 15 percent (50% x 30%) and 30 percent (60% x 50%) voting for annexation. The turnout in the Crimean district of Sevastopol, according to the Council, was higher: 50-80%." (Forbes : May 5, 2014) (my emphasis)

To make sure no one misses this:

"Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor." (Paul Gregory : Forbes : Aug 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to July, 2016, and we have Putin,

".... signing into law the so-called Yarovaya Amendment to Russia’s anti-extremism laws. The amendment assigns sweeping new powers to security forces, beefs up controls of social media and telephone calls, and broadens the definition of extremism crimes.
......
The definition of extremism now includes “providing false information about historical facts and events.” Recent convictions are of “extremists,” who question the legality of the Crimean annexation and who believe that Donbass “separatists” are directed by the Russian state." (ibid Paul Gregory: Forbes Aug. 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

The FIRST casualty of war is TRUTH. (Aeschylus Greek tragic dramatist (525 BC - 456 BC) )

Which puts into stark perspective the current buildup of Putin's forces on the Ukraine-Russia border, under the guise of military drills, as well as his buildup of military equipment and Russian soldiers in the Donbas AND in Ukrainian Crimea.

It also puts into perspective the severe uptick of 'ceasefire violations' and 'heavy armament clashes between Putin's Russian soldiers & his rebel proxies, and the Ukrainian army, along the Donbas 'ceasefire' line.

 

Even the tootheless OSCE, whose current Chairman is none other than the Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), has recently catalogued a long list of 'ceasefire' violations by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas.

It is therefore no wonder that,

"[Commander of US Army Europe Lt. Gen. Ben] Hodges (right) says Russia could help address concerns by following the example of US military drills where Russian observers are allowed.

Russia should allow observers, including Western journalists, to attend upcoming military drills that could again put Ukraine on edge just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has sharpened his rhetoric, the commander of the US Army in Europe told Reuters." (UT : Aug. 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to that first casualty of war, TRUTH, and Putin's signing into law, the Yarovaya Amendment.

As reported by UNIAN,

"In the early hours of August 28, 2016, [Russian] journalist Alexander Shchetinin (left) was found dead in his apartment at Kostiantynivska Street. Alexander was found on the balcony by his friends, who came to congratulate him on his birthday," the Kyiv Operatyvny news portal wrote on Facebook. (UNIAN : 28 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Alexander Shchetinin,
 
"...publically criticized [ ]Vladimir Putin, who he called a “personal enemy” running a “fascist dictatorship,” (The Telegraph : 29 August 2016) and,

"... gave up his Russian citizenship before becoming a Ukrainian national and settling in the capital." (Rachael Pells (right): The Independent : Monday 29 August 2016) (my emphasis)

What must also be irking Putin is the fact that,

• Ukraine’s public expenditures fell by 9 percent of GDP in 2015 alone, and the budget deficit plunged from 10.5 percent of GDP in 2014 to 2.5 percent in 2015.

• Three anti-corruption bodies have been institutionalized. Bank cleansing proceeds. Absurd rules for early retirement have been abolished. The country’s macroeconomic stability remains strong, and Ukraine has returned to economic growth.

• After a total GDP fall of 17 percent in 2014-15, the real economy has bottomed out, and new growth is tepid. Realistically, the IMF predicts a GDP growth of 1.5 percent this year. (Anders Åslund: Atlantic Council : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
• The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)

 As a consequence, and extremely disconcerting,

"Structural units of the Russian Telecom and Mass Communications, Finance and Industry and Trade Ministries, the Federal Agency for State Reserves and the Central Bank will be involved in mobilization training, the Defense Ministry’s press office said.

The mobilization training will be held as part of a sudden combat readiness check of the Russian Armed Forces, the press office added." (Russia Beyond the Headlines : August 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And we now hear that,

".... a  Final decision on the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany on the sidelines of the [G20] summit in China (September 4-5, 2016) is still pending, told reporters on Monday, the press Secretary of the head of state, Dmitry Peskov.

“While there is no final confirmation about the meeting. Yet negotiations on diplomatic channels”, – said Peskov." (NewsRussia : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama may communicate with each other on the sidelines of the G20 summit to be held in China on Sept. 4-5, the Russian news agency TASS reported Tuesday.

Earlier on Monday, Ben Rhodes, Obama's deputy national security adviser, said the U.S. president hopes to meet his Russian counterpart to discuss some issues during the summit.

"We also hope (for such an opportunity)," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying. "We are ready, although the final decision has not been made yet," he added. (Xinhua Net : Moscow, Aug. 30) (my emphasis)

The fact that at the coming G20 meeting in China, there 

• may be a meeting between Putin, Merkel and Hollande, and
• may be a meeting between Putin and Obama

tells us that, more than anything else, Is Putin on the brink? These meetings (if they happen!) will be for the public consumption of the Russian people rather than an earnestness on the part of Putin to bring to a resolution his current war with Ukraine. 

Let us not foget that there is some anxiety on the part of Putin about the forcoming Duma elections next month.

Legislative elections will be held in Russia on 18 September 2016, having been brought forward from 4 December 2016.   

Already he has set up his own Praetorian Guard, together with the fact that he has signed into law his Yarovaya Amendment, a legal support for any actions his Praetorian Guard may have to take againt the Russian people AFTER these uncoming Duma elections.

Added to which, he is now publicly mobilizing the Russian people. Russia Beyond the Headlines

(to be continued)

Putin is juggling with fire

On the 18th June, 2016, Stephen Sestanovich (left) wrote that,

"Having seized Crimea in 2014 and intervened in Syria in 2015, [Putin] can claim credit for the strongest and most successful assertion of Russian power since the end of the Cold War.

At the same time, the country is more isolated internationally than it has been in decades.

Putin faces a similar problem on the economic front. A leader who, many Russians say, made rising living standards the basis of his legitimacy now cannot promise that the good times will return.

These contradictory realities have produced wildly disparate assessments, both by Russian observers and others, of Putin’s political prospects and policy intentions." (Newsweek : 18 June, 2016) (my emphasis)


Putin’s political prospects and policy intentions are fast beginning to show confusion, as evidenced  by the appoinment of Anton Vaino as his new Head of the Presidential Administration, following the sudden sacking of his long-time friend and ally, Sergei Ivanov (right: Ivanov and Putin).

But who, exactly, is Anton Vaino?

As reported by Olga Ivshina and Dmitry Bulin,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's new chief of staff Anton Vaino has reached the top shrouded in mystery.

He does not appear to have given any press interviews in his past career, and his official biography reveals little, beyond a steady rise over many years of service to the Kremlin." (BBC News : 19 August 2016) (my empahsis)

Even more disconcerting,

"Mr Vaino argues that the economy and society in general have become too complex to manage by traditional means. Governments need to seek new ways of regulating and controlling them.

The article describes a new device called a "nooscope" which, it says, can tap into global consciousness and "detect and register changes in the biosphere and in human activity". (ibid Ivshina and Bulin)

Even Daria Litvinova, (right) writing in the Moscow Times, reports that,

"A bizarre article about “spacial scanners” and “registering the unseen” has been linked to the newly appointed top bureaucrat Anton Vaino.
.....
The bigger question is whether Anton Vaino, president’s chief of staff, really wrote it, says Mikhail Gelfand, a prominent biologist and co-founder of Dissernet.

“If he is really behind this delirium, then it’s quite scary,” Gelfand told The Moscow Times. “If, he’s just signed off on other people’s work, we have another problem. That means we’re living in a country where head of the presidential administration can sign off on an absurdity with his eyes closed” (Moscow Times : Aug. 15 2016)

One would like to believe that by employing Vaino as his Chief of Staff, Putin is simply using the Russian strategy of 'maskirovka', a strategy of deception and smoke & mirrors, to keep people guessing what his next diplomatic move will be after the recent 'Crimea incident', and the building up of his forces along the Ukrainian border and in Ukrainian Crimea.

Let us recall that,

"Largely Unnoticed, Full-Scale War May Be Returning to Ukraine. July was the deadliest month in the Donbass for over a year." (Ola Cichowlas and Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

just as 

• Putin wants the High Ranking military official, Mikhail Babich, to become his ambassador in Kiev, 
• Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says that Putin is "seriously concerned" by the uptick of fighting in the Donbas 
• large amounts of Russian military hardware have been massed near the towns of Dzhankoy and Armyansk in Crimea's north, close to the administrative border with mainland Ukraine,
• More than 100 people arrived in Donbas from Russia to replenish the combined Russian-separatist forces, and
• Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked the Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 47 times in the past 24 hours? (blog entry : Tuesday, 9 August 2016) 

Christopher Miller (RFER/L)10.08.2016

 

 More recently,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called Friday for a resolution in the conflict with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

A White House statement said Biden and Poroshenko spoke by telephone and "expressed deep concern over the recent surge in fighting in eastern Ukraine, where cease-fire violations by combined Russian-separatist forces are at their highest levels since 2015, often using heavy weapons."

The White House said Biden "relayed that the United States had sent a message to Russia that the world is watching and underscored the need to de-escalate the situation." It said the vice president also urged Ukraine to "show restraint." (VOA : August 20, 2016) (my emphasis) 

And whilst Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies continue to trample all over the Minsk2 ceasefire agreement, Putin himself is cementing a deep relationship with Turkey which, no doubt, has put paid to the deepening relationship between Erdogan and Poroshenko shortly after Turkey shot down that Russian military plane that had entered Turkey's air space.

Rather chillingly,

"An MP from the Russian parliament, Igor Morozov, suggested that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could offer Russia use of the airbase, which is currently used by NATO and is home to around 50 US nuclear warheads.

...

It is not guaranteed that Russia needs Incirlik, but such a decision can be regarded as Turkey's real readiness to cooperate with Russia in the fight against terrorism in Syria, and not just pay lip service," Ozerov said, according to the Russian state-funded Sputnik website." (Middle East Eye :Wednesday 17 August 2016 ) (my emphasis)

If we add to these chilling developments the belief of Putin's new Chief of Staff, Anton Vaino, that,

"...  the economy and society in general have become too complex to manage by traditional means. Governments need to seek new ways of regulating and controlling them [through the use of a 'nooscope']."

we can expect Putin to throw caution to the wind and ramp up his war with Ukraine as the Duma elections draw ever closer.

(to be continued)

Putin concludes that only war can now save him

Jason Easley (right) reports that,

"Donald Trump’s presidential campaign woes have gotten bigger as his campaign manager Paul Manafort’s name has turned up in a ledger of illegal payments that were made by a network in Putin’s sphere of influence in Ukraine." PoliticusUsa : Sun, Aug 14th, 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Andrew E. Kramer, Mike McIntire and Barry Meier,

“Paul Manafort is among those names on the list of so-called ‘black accounts of the Party of Regions,’ which the detectives of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine are investigating,” the statement said." (New York Times : Aug. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)
They also report that these,

"..handwritten ledgers show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Mr. Manafort from Mr. Yanukovych’s pro-Russian political party from 2007 to 2012, according to Ukraine’s newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Investigators assert that the disbursements were part of an illegal off-the-books system whose recipients also included election officials." (ibid Kramer, McIntire, and Meier) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that  Josh Rogin (right) reported that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)


Meanwhile, as these direct links between Paul Manafort and corrupt payments by the Yanukovich Party of Regions continue to emerge,

"Ukraine's Defence Intelligence warn that combined Russian-separatist forces, operating in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, are plotting massive provocations along the whole contact line." (UT : Aug. 12, 2016)

Even the OSCE, with Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left) now its Chairperson,

"... is ready to establish nine control bases along the fragment of Ukraine-Russia border in the occupied Donbas region." (UT : Aug. 12, 2016) to monitor the provocations of Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas.

 

That Putin is beginning to run scared is, as Jill Dougherty (right) explains,

"...the consensus among Russia-watchers at the Lennart Meri security conference is summed up by Fiona Hill, director of the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe. 
“We talk an awful lot now about our feelings of insecurity towards Russia,” she says, “but I think it’s a pretty obvious fact that the Kremlin is also running scared, and we really have to start to inspect why is that the case?”

The Kremlin is frightened about its grip on the political situation at home - and the geopolitical situation abroad. Russia is trying to deter the West in a very aggressive way because it realizes it is weaker - economically, militarily, and in terms of soft power." (Wilson Centre : Jul 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

This is perhaps best illustrated by Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitri Medvedev, announcing last Friday (12 Aug., 2016) that, Russia may completely break diplomatic ties with Ukraine, thus consigning the current Minsk2 agreements to the dustbin of history.

Unlike before, Putin cannot use the current Olympics in Rio as a smokescreen to avert the eyes of the world away from his preparations for war with Ukraine in both Ukrainian Crimea and the Donbas.

Nor can he disguise the fact that,

"Russians are feeling more indifferent towards President Vladimir Putin than at any time before the Ukraine crisis, according to independent pollster the Levada Center.
.....
Putin’s biggest flaws continue to be his administration’s fight against corruption and failing to raise living standards. Nearly a third of Russians (29 percent) agreed his position on corruption was his biggest failure, while 27 percent felt the inability to increase wages, pensions and living standards was his major problem in the last year." (Damien Sharkov: Newsweek :  8/8/16) (my emphasis)

Under these circumstances Putin will lash out. 

War, he concludes, is the only way that he can save himself.

(to be continued)

Is Putin stepping into the abyss?

As inevitably as the sun will rise to-morrow morning, Putin is repeating his pretext for escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine that he did when he was head of the FSB in 1999, and oversaw the Moscow apartment bombings that he used as a causus belli to start his war with Chechnya.

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that those 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow led to the deaths of 293, and injured more than 1000 people, whilst at the same time spreading a wave of fear across the country. (cf Wikipedia)

There is enough evidence that exposes the fact that these bombings were staged by the then FSB under Putin. (cf Wikipedia)

This is best illustrated by the failed Ryazan bombing attempt by the FSB.

And now we have Putin attempting to use the very same FSB tactic to provoke a full scale war with Ukraine. 

As reported by Andrew Osborn and Gleb Stolyarov,

"Russia's FSB security service said two people were killed in clashes and its forces had dismantled a Ukrainian spy network inside Crimea. Kiev denied the assertions, calling them an attempt by Moscow to create an excuse to escalate towards a war.
...
"Russian accusations towards Ukraine of terrorism in the occupied Crimea sound as preposterous and cynical as the statements of the Russian leadership about the absence of the Russian troops in Donbass (region of Ukraine)," Poroshenko [President of Ukraine] said." (Reuters : Wed Aug 10, 2016) (my emphasis) 

This time, however, the world is not being fooled by Putin.

As reported by EuroMaidan Press,

 

"In the last few weeks, Moscow commentator Aleksandr Nemets says, the leading media in the United States – Time, Newsweek, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and London’s Economist as well – have focused on Putin’s odious methods because of his backing of Donald Trump in the American election.
...
[Nemets continues] ... “the situation in the Russian Federation is extremely bad and getting still worse.” But despite that, “the Putin regime has as before one powerful resource: its willingness to use the most odious means and to exploit the chaos connected with them.” Those are the only things saving Putin and Company just now." (EuroMaidan Press : 11/08/2016) (my emphasis)

Not only are Putin's troop movements in Crimea and in the Donbas glaring indicators of his impending and dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine.

More significant is the fact that,

"Straightaway, Mr Putin said more internationally-backed talks, due in the next few weeks, had been proved "pointless". So Russia has a reason to stall again on the Minsk peace process, maintain the unstable status quo in Ukraine and to blame Kiev for all of it." (Sarah Rainsford (left): BBC News : 11/08/2016) (my emphasis)

By referring to the Minsk2 peace process as "pointless, Putin is trying to LEGITIMISE the dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine. 

This is the equivalent of his pronouncing in 1999 that he will "kill" those Chechen rebels who allegedly blew up those Moscow apartments, even if they are in the toilet, whilst KNOWING full well that his FSB were responsible for those bombings.

Let us also remind ourselves that a few days ago it was reported in the Moscow Times that,

"Largely Unnoticed, Full-Scale War May Be Returning to Ukraine. July was the deadliest month in the Donbass for over a year." (Ola Cichowlas and Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Also that, as reported by Jill Dougherty (left) on 18 July,

"... At the office I ask a Russian employee about the mood in his working-class Moscow neighborhood. The old people are buying salt, matches and “gretchka,” (buckwheat) he tells me - the time-worn refuge for Russians stocking up on essentials in case of war. In the past two months, I’ve traveled to the Baltic region, to Georgia, and to Russia. Talk of war is everywhere." (Wilson Centre : Jul 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

As Jill Dougherty also writes,

"The Kremlin is frightened about its grip on the political situation at home - and the geopolitical situation abroad. Russia is trying to deter the West in a very aggressive way because it realizes it is weaker - economically, militarily, and in terms of soft power." (ibid Wilson Centre) (my emphasis)

 

Putin is re-living 1999, and the tragic and desperate actions he took to present himself to the people of Russia as someone who would ruthlessly hunt down those Chechens alleged to have caused the deaths and suffering of Russian people.

Now it is the deaths, in Ukrainian Crimea that he invaded and annexed, of a Russian soldier and an FSB employee that he is vowing to avenge, alleging that Ukrainian military persons are responsible for those deaths.

 

And just as he vowed in 1999 to "chase the terrorists at the airports or in the toilet and waste them in an outhouse", now he is vowing, in characteristically bellicose language,

“We obviously will not let such things slide by,” the Russian president said on Wednesday. Ukraine had “resorted to the practice of terror”, he said. ( Shaun Walker (left): The Guardian : Wednesday 10 August 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Shaun Walker further reports that,

 

"Oleskandr Turchynov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, also dismissed the claims. “The hysterical and false statement by Russia’s FSB has no purpose other than an attempt by occupiers to inflame the situation on temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands,” he said." (ibid Shaun Walker) 

 

As in the case of the invasion and occupation of Ukrainian Crimea by Putin's "little green men", an invasion that was planned BEFORE the Maidan revolution, we can expect that this phoney 'tantrum' of Putin is yet another part of a pre-planned 'maskirovka' strategy, the time for implementing which has now arrived.

 

 RUSSIAN "MASKIROVKA" STRATEGY (aired BBC Jan 2015)

 

(to be continued)