Putin's greatest fear is now bubbling to the surface

In November 2018, just over one year from now, US Congressional elections will take place in which,

"All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested." (Wikipedia)

Recall that Kissinger once remarked that,

“Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac”. (Philip Sherwell : The Telegraph : 21 May 2011)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Republican members on the House Intelligence Committee are now attempting to confuse and 'hamstring' the Congressional investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections so that they can stem the negative influence of the mounting evidence against Trump as they begin to mount their re-election to the US House of Congress.

As Max Kutner reports,

"[Republican members of the] House Intelligence Committee [have] issued subpoenas requesting that the FBI and Department of Justice provide documents related to an unverified [Steele] dossier about President Donald Trump. The latest subpoenas reportedly call on FBI Director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Jeff Sessions to appear before the House panel." (Newsweek : 5 Sept. 2017) (my emphasis) (cf also: Rachel Maddow video interview with Congressman Adam Schiff below)

Now recall that in July,

"That Republicans in the House of Congress are holding up a vote to increase sanctions against Putin for his meddling in the US presidential elections of 2016 is due, primarily, to the dilemma that they face.

• If they support the Senate vote to increase sanctions against Putin, they will be admitting that Putin helped Trump gain the presidency.

• If they scupper the vote to increase sanctions against Putin, they will be supporting Putin's and Trump's argument that Putin did not orchestrate the Russian collussion with Trump's lieutenants during the 2016 US presidential elections.

In other words, Congressional Republicans are being faced with the question,

"To impeach or not to impeach ..." (blog entry July )

Not wishing to be viewed as 'supporters of Putin', the Republicans on the Congressional Intelligence Committee are now desperately trying to besmirch the character not only of Christopher Steele, but also those in the FBI who initially investigated the Steele dossier as well as, in particular, the Dept. of Justice Special Investigator Robert Mueller.

And whilst Republicans on the Congressional Intelligence Committee are attempting to confuse and 'hamstring' the Congressional investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections, Putin is throwing down the gauntlet by warning that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that any decision by the United States to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine would fuel the conflict in eastern Ukraine and possibly prompt pro-Russian separatists to expand their campaign there." (Denis Pinchuk : Reuters : September 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

Which rather contradicts the reporting by Nataliya Vasilyeva that,

"Russia will ask the U.N. Security Council to send peacekeepers to patrol the front line in eastern Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, a development greeted by Germany as a new opportunity for detente." (The Washington Post : September 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

Of course, there was the Putin caveat that,

"But he insisted that the peacekeepers should be deployed only along the line separating the rebel-controlled territories and the area under government control where the clashes occur. Russia’s foreign ministry will file a formal request with the U.N. Security Council, Putin said." (ibid Nataliya Vasilyeva) (my emphasis)

In other words, Putin is openly stating that the border between Ukraine and Russia in the Donbas area, controlled by his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies, should NOT be patrolled by UN peacekeepers, so that he can continue to build up his forces and military hardware in the Donbas area that he controls.

Angela Merkel's Foreign Secretary, hailed these weasel words of Putin.

"German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel (left) said he found Putin's announcement "surprising" but said he was "very glad ... the Russian president said today he will continue to negotiate about demands that were rejected in the past by Russia." (Kirsten Grieshaber and David Rising : Mail Online (Associated Press Article) : 5 September 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst Germany is hailing Putin's weasel words, Veronika Melkozerova (right) reports that,

"Without permission from Ukraine, Russia on Aug. 29 successfully erected the first 6,000 ton railroad arched section of the Crimean Bridge under construction.

When completed by 2019, the 19-kilometer, $3 billion span will cross the Kerch Straight and connect the Russian mainland with the illegally seized [Crimean] peninsula." (Kyivpost : Aug. 31, 2017) (my emphasis)

As the Trump presidency continues to implode, and  

• the subsequent Trump-payback-release of Putin from the US sanctions against him is now completely scuppered, 
•  the US Defence Secretary pronouncing that, "[Supplying Ukraine with] [d]efensive weapons are not provocative unless you are an aggressor and clearly Ukraine is not an aggressor since it is their own territory where the fighting is happening, (Idrees Ali and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : August 24, 2017)

Putin can now only hope that many Republicans in the US Senate and the US House of Congress, as next year's Senate and Congressional elections loom ever closer, will manage to completely derail both the Senate and Congress Intelligence Committees investigation into just how he helped Donald Trump get elected to the White House.

 But his greatest fear is that Trump will be forced to give the green light to the US supplying Ukraine with weaponry of defence.

Is Putin's greatest fear now bubbling to the surface?

 

(to be continued)

Is Putin beginning to stare into the abyss of his dénouement?

A week ago today, on 24th August, Ukraine celebrated its Independence Day.

To the consternation of Putin, General Mattis, US Defence Secretary, attended these celebrations and, more significantly, in a press conference with Ukrainian President Poroshenko, stated that,

"Despite Russia's denials, we know they [Putin] are seeking to redraw international borders by force, undermining the sovereign and free nations of Europe," Mattis told reporters, alongside Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
...
"On the defensive lethal weapons, we are actively reviewing it, I will go back now having seen the current situation and be able to inform the secretary of state and the president in very specific terms what I recommend for the direction ahead," Mattis said.

"Defensive weapons are not provocative unless you are an aggressor and clearly Ukraine is not an aggressor since it is their own territory where the fighting is happening," Mattis said."

(Idrees Ali and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : August 24, 2017) (my emphasis)

What must have also stuck in Putin's craw is the fact that the Independence Day Military Parade in Kiev included soldiers from NATO countries supporting Ukraine in its war with Putin.

Meanwhile, 3 days ago,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday called for Russia and Ukraine to increase their efforts to implement a fragile ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine. " (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : August 28, 2017) (my emphasis)

Merkel and Macron further stated that,

"We urge President Putin and President Poroshenko to fully respect their commitments, to support the ceasefire in a public and clear manner, and to ensure that appropriate instructions have been sent to the military and local forces,” they said in a joint statement issued by the chancellery in Berlin." (ibid Michael Nienaber)

Neither Merkel nor Macron are willing to explicitly condemn Putin and his Russian soldiers and proxies as the instigators for the failure of the 'ceasefire' in the Donbas.

In similar vein, Trump failed to explicitly condemn the Klu Klux Klan and White Supremacy groups for the death of Heather Heyer (right) during the Charlotsville demonstration.

As reported by Joanna Walters (left),

"Politicians from all sides have rounded on Donald Trump for failing explicitly to condemn white supremacy groups or use the term domestic terrorism after a woman [Heather Heyer] was killed [by a White Supremicist] when [he smashed his] car ... into anti-racism protesters at the weekend. 

On Saturday the president condemned hatred and violence “on many sides” in his remarks, but did not directly single out the white supremacists ..." (The Guardian : Monday 14 August 2017)

Why this reluctance on the part of Merkel and Macron to explicitly condemn Putin and his Russian soldiers and proxies as the instigators of the the 'ceasefire' failure in the Donbas, and why the reluctance of Trump to utter even one word of condemnation against Putin since he entered the US presidential race?

Could it be that in the case of Merkel and Macron, the new US sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki',

" ...  would almost surely affect a controversial pipeline project between Russia and Germany known as Nord Stream 2, which is owned by Gazprom but includes financial stakes from European companies.."
...
[The] new sanctions have important implications for Europe because they target any company that contributes to the development, maintenance or modernization of Russia’s energy export pipelines." ( Steven Erlanger and Neil MacFarquhar : New York Times : July 25, 2017)
 
And in the case of Donald Trump, it now emerges that during the US presidential elections in 2016,

"... [Trump's] company was pursuing a plan to develop a massive Trump Tower in Moscow, according to several people familiar with the proposal and new records reviewed by Trump Organization lawyers." (Carol D. Leonnig, Tom Hamburger and Rosalind S. Helderman : Washington Post : August 27, 2017) (my emphasis)
 

(Maddow video report)

 

Given that,

•  the new US sanctions will directly target any company that contributes to the development, maintenance or modernization of Russia’s energy export pipelines, 
• the Trump presidency is beginning to sink as the mounting evidence of the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential race continues to grow, 

what other avenue does Putin have for expressing his anger at these developments except to keep his war in the Donbas alive by allowing his Russian soldiers and proxies to continuosly break the fragile ceasefire arrangements?

Is Putin beginning to stare into the abyss of his dénouement?

(to be continued)

There is very little that Putin can now do to save the Trump presidency.

On 3rd August I queried,

"Why is Trump so fearful of Putin?" 

Could it just be [because of some of the contents of] that Steele dossier that Putin is holding over the head of Trump?" (blog entry 3/08/2017)

It now transpires, as reported by Josh Dawsey and Elana Schor that,

 "President Donald Trump privately vented his frustration over Russia-related matters with at least two other Republican senators this month, according to people familiar with the conversations — in addition to the president's public admonishments of Mitch McConnell, John McCain and Jeff Flake.
.......
"Trump ... complained about the Russian sanctions measure in a call with McConnell earlier this month that devolved into shouting. The New York Times first reported that Trump discussed the Russia probe with McConnell.

"It seems he is just always focused on Russia," one senior GOP aide said." (Politico :23/08/2017) (my emphasis)

Let us remind  ourselves that the US sanctions against Putin stem from his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014 in the aftermath of the 2014 Maidan revolution, and his subsequent ongoing war in the Donbas with Ukraine, which was then followed by yet more US sanctions against Putin for his meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections, which ultimately led to Trump now occupying the Oval Office. 

Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin also report that,

"...[Senator] Mr. McConnell (right) has privately expressed uncertainty that Mr. Trump will be able to salvage his administration after a series of summer crises." (New York Times : Aug. 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

And now, Trump's 'summer crises' has just taken another turn for the worse, to the consternation, no doubt, of Putin himself.

It has now been reported that,

"Glenn Simpson (left), the former journalist who helped compile the Russia dossier with allegations of collusion by President Donald Trump's top aides, spoke with staff on the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday for more than 10 hours." (Tom LoBianco and Ted Barrett :CNN : August 23, 2017) (my emphasis)

(A more detailed video report by Rachel Maddow)

The truths contained in this dossier are now bubbling to the surface, and it is not only Trump who is being consumed with the Mueller probe into the collusion between himself, his pre- and post-election acolytes, and Putin.

Even Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and one of his chief White House advisors, is also beginning to feel the heat of the Mueller investigation.

The fact that Trump now stands at the precipice of impeachment cannot be re-assuring for Putin. 

What is most disturbing for Putin is the fact that the new US sanctions that Trump has been forced to sign into law,

" .... would almost surely affect a controversial pipeline project between Russia and Germany known as Nord Stream 2, which is owned by Gazprom but includes financial stakes from European companies." ( Steven Erlanger and Neil MacFarquhar : New York Times : July 25, 2017)

Could it be that the effect of the new US sanctions against Putin will directly affect the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany?

Could this also be the reason why Trump is so vexed about about the current US sanctions against Putin? Why he has had a 'shouting match' with Republican Senate leader, Senator Mitch McConnell, over those new US sanctions against Putin?

There is very little that Putin can now do to save the Trump presidency.

And as the truths contained in the Steel dossier now begin to take centre-stage in the Senate Judiciary Committee's investigation into the Putin-Trump connection during the 2016 US presidential elections, Trump's fear of Putin will only increase.

The question still remains,

"Why is Trump so fearful of Putin?" 

 

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to wind itself tightly around both Putin and Trump.

(to be continued)

How long can Trump now last as his White House Senior advisors are being reduced to his immediate family?

The late Harold Wilson (left) is rumoured to have said that, "A week is a long time in politics". (Wikipedia)

In the aftermath of the death of  Heather Heyer, a 32-year-old legal assistant with a law firm in Virginia, at the Charlottsville White Nationalist rally on the 12th August, Donald Trump drew gasps of unbelief by many of his unpresidential remarks about the events of that day, that flew very close to exonerating the Nazi sympathiser who killed Heather Heyer. 

As AJ Willingham wrote,

"Facing criticism over the vague wording of his initial response [to the death of Heather Heyer], Trump released a second statement on Monday that divided his white nationalist supporters. Some heard the diluted words of a man forced to bow to media pressure, while others found winking encouragement in between the lines."(CNN: August 15, 2017) (my emphasis)

In the wake of his un-presidential remarks, the White House now seems close to total meltdown, to the utter consternation of Vladimir Putin, whose endeavours to keep Trump in power continues to this very day.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (complete video) of MSNBC,

"The Russian Military Intelligence Unit that carried out the DNC hack... nicknamed 'Fancy Bear' ... And they're apparently still working now  ... this summer ... still against us ... the American public ... Still on behalf of Donald Trump ..."

 
Now, however, the FBI has, as Rachel Maddow also reports,

" ... it's first human witness for the Russian side of the Russian attack on the election. It's a Ukrainian hacker ... [ online alias "Profexer" ] ...  (Full article:  Andrew E. Kramer and Andrew Higgins : New York Times : Aug. 16, 2017)

Since the beginning of the Trump presidential campaign in 2016, he collected around himself a motley crew of Russian sympathisers as his Foreign Policy unit.

Some of these, like Paul Manafort and Carter Page, are now under investigation as possible conduits for Putin in helping Trump win the 2016 US Presidential elections.

Rex Tillerson, appointed after Trump's election success, still remains in office as the US 

Secretary.

And yesterday we learnt that the man credited with winning the US Presidential election for Trump, Steve Bannon, Trump's Chief Strategist, has been removed from the White House and, as  Harriet Alexander, David Millward and Barney Henderson report,

"A defiant Steve Bannon declared the Trump presidency he had campaigned for was over as he vowed to carry on the fight after being ousted as the White House chief strategist.

..... 
In interviews he made it clear he was not going quietly as he rounded on those he held responsible for his departure." (Telegraph : 19 August 2017) (my emphasis)

As the late Harold Wilson said,

"A week is a long time in politics."

Let us also not forget that the Mueller investigation into Putin's meddling in the 2016 US Presidential election continues to solidly plod along.

So the $64 question is,

"How long can Trump now last as his White House Senior advisors are being reduced to his immediate family?"

(to be continued)

Paul Manafort and Putin now hold the destiny of Trump in their hands.

In July of 2016, Steven Lee Myers and Andrew E. Kramer wrote an article detailing the power that Paul Manafort wielded in Ukraine before becoming Donald Trump's Campaign Manager during the 2016 US presidential elections.

"President Viktor F. Yanukovych, who owed his election to, as an American diplomat put it, an “extreme makeover” Mr. Manafort oversaw, bolted the country in the face of violent street protests. He found sanctuary in Russia and never returned, as his patron, President Vladimir V. Putin, proceeded to dismember Ukraine, annexing Crimea and fomenting a war in two other provinces that continues.

Mr. Manafort was undaunted.

Within months of his client’s political demise, he went to work seeking to bring his disgraced party back to power, much as he had Mr. Yanukovych himself nearly a decade earlier. Mr. Manafort has already had some success, with former Yanukovych loyalists — and some Communists — forming a new bloc opposing Ukraine’s struggling pro-Western government." (New York Times : July 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Stephanie Baker and Daryna Krasnolutska, (right: Stephanie and Daryna) 

"In the decade before he worked for Trump, Manafort’s efforts did for Moscow what its finest political minds had failed to do: help get a pro-Russian candidate installed in Kiev.

.....

In the five-year period from 2007 to 2012, Manafort was paid at least $12.7 million, according to a handwritten Party of Regions ledger found later in its head office. (Bloomberg : May 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to July of 2017 and we learn that,

"The FBI raided the home of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort in July [2017] and seized documents and other materials as part of the probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, his spokesman told the Associated Press." (Mark Moore : New York Post : August 9, 2017) (my emphasis)

This FBI raid on the house of Paul Manafort will further reveal the nature of the finacial largesse that Manafort received from Yanukovych during the period 2007-2012.

What it may also reveal is the fact that it may, indeed, have been Putin who was Manafort's 'paymaster' rather than the Yanukovych Party of Regions.

The reaction of Donald Trump to this raid on Manafort's home is also rather interesting.

Responding to a reporter question about this raid, Trump responded that,

"I thought it was a ...very ... very strong signal ... or whatever .."

Further on in this interview, Trump made a rather interesting 'slip of the tongue' by stating that,

" ... There was no collusion between us and Russia [during the 2016 US presidential campaign] ... In fact ... the opposite .. Russia spent a lot of money on fighting me ... Russia spent a lot of money on that false report ..."

The report that Trump is here referring to is the Steele report, and it has now been revealed by Julian Borger that,

"Two US congressional staffers who travelled to London in July and tried to contact former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele were sent by a longstanding aide to Devin Nunes, the chairman of the House intelligence committee and a close ally of the White House.

The trip has brought back to the surface a continuing struggle for control of the committee’s investigation into Moscow’s role in the 2016 US election. The reliability of a dossier compiled by Steele, containing explosive allegations of extensive secret collusion between Trump and the Kremlin, is a key part of that investigation." (The Guardian : Tuesday 8 August 2017) (my emphasis)

That Trump is now asserting that,

".... Russia spent a lot of money on that false report ..."

could signify that much of the salacious details about Trump when he visited Russia could contain more than a grain of truth.

Let us remind ourselves that Putin was made Head of the FSB under Boris Yeltsin, and used FSB methods to get rid of the Federal Prosecutor, Yuri Skuratov, who was investigating corruption in the Kremlin, that implicated Boris Yeltsin himself.

Shortly after managing to rid the Kremlin of Skuratov, Putin was made Prime Minister of Russia by Boris Yeltsin. And has been in power ever since.

Now we have Trump worrying about "the details in the Steele dossier that Putin allegedly spent a lot of money on", and Paul Manafort staring into the prison cell that he may soon occupy.

Paul Manafort and Putin now hold the destiny of Trump in their hands.

(to be continued)

Why is Trump so fearful of Putin? Could it just be that Steele dossier that Putin is holding over the head of Trump?

The new US sanctions against Putin for his interference in the 2016 US presidential elections has, very reluctantly, been signed by Trump, without the normal fanfare that accompanies such signings in the White House.

Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, explained exactly what these sanctions do.

"As a practical matter ... they mostly codify the sanctions that are already there. There is a few places in the energy sector where it makes it harder for American companies to work with Russian companies in exploration ... But its mostly codifying .. making it difficult for the president to withdraw these sanctions in a negotiation .. and it's true that when sanctions are done by law they become sticky ... they last for a long time" (cf video above) (my emphasis)

What this is effect means is that the US sanctions that were instituted when Putin annexed Crimea and invaded the Ukrainian Donbas CANNOT be negotiated away by Trump without the approval of the US Congress.

Trump had absolutely no other alternative but to sign these sanctions into law, even though, emerging from the shadows, Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon Mobil and now US Secretary of State, stated that,

"But the action by Congress to put these sanctions in place, and the way they did ...  neither the President nor I are very happy about that .. We were clear that it was not going to be helpful to our efforts, but that's the decision they made" (MSNBC : 2 August, 2017)

Not only is Trump and Tillerson unhappy about these new US sanctions, so is Putin, whose glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev stated that,

"New sanctions on Russia which U.S. President Donald Trump has signed into law are tantamount to a "full-scale trade war", Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday." (Alexander Winning and Jack Stubbs : Reuters : August 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin is not alone in his anger against these US sanctions.

As Yasmeen Serhan  (right) reports,

"[EU] Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (left) warned of potential collateral damage to Europe’s energy market, as the sanctions could inadvertently hit European companies involved with Russia’s energy-export pipelines. One such pipeline, the Nord Stream 2, which aims to carry natural gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, involves several European companies."(The Atlantic : Aug 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

As Jon Rogers also reports,

"The German government and business leaders have said the new sanctions passed this month by the US House of Representatives could prevent German companies from working on pipeline projects that they say are essential to Germany's energy security." (The Express : Mon, Jul 31, 2017) (my emphasis) 

 
The fact that Trump has been forced to sign these sanctions into law also signifies that the "honeymoon" between Trump and the US House of Congress is coming to a rapid end.

In the words of US Senator Lindsey Graham,

"The fact that he does this quietly I think reinforces the narrative that the Trump administration is not really serious about pushing back on Russia and I think that is a mistake too because Putin will see this as a sign of weakness ..." (cf video below) (my emphasis)

Which once again raises the question,

"Why is Trump so fearful of Putin?" 

Could it just be that Steele dossier that Putin is holding over the head of Trump?

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan is weaving itself even more tighter around Putin and Trump.

In my blog entry of 23/07/2017, I wrote that,

"Neither Putin nor Trump can now easily escape from the corner into which they have both painted themselves."

This is best illustrated by the fact that;

1. Trump has sitting on his Oval Room desk a new 'sanctions bill' against Putin and his kleptocratic siloviki clique, passed by BOTH the US House of Congress and the US Senate, and which he, as yet, simply cannot bring himself to sign into law,
2. whilst Putin has, rather belatedly, decided to retaliate against these new US sanctions by expelling more than 700 US diplomatic staff in Moscow, as well as shutting down US recreational facilities in Moscow. 

 

As Vladimir Solovyov reports, Putin himself has stated that,

"The American side has made a move which, it is important to note, hasn't been provoked by anything, to worsen Russian-US relations. [It includes] unlawful restrictions, attempts to influence other states of the world, including our allies, who are interested in developing and keeping relations with Russia," (RT : 30 Jul, 2017) (my emphasis)

Russian Senator Andrei Klimov (left), being interviewed by Richard Engel of MSNBC (28/07/2017), said that,

Richard Engel : "Supporters of the sanctions would argue that Russia had no right to try and interfere

with the US political process

Andrei Klimov : "That's nonsense because we have no reason to do that "

Further on in the interview, Klimov then rather gives the game away by trying to argue that it was not the Russian state that interfered in the US elections, but may have been some of the 146 million Russian citizens.

 

 

Richard Engel also reports on the degree to which Putin is now trying to cover his own tracks in Russia of the Kremlin's collusion with Trump's lieutenants, just as Trump is trying to cover his tracks of collusion with Putin, both during the 2016 US presidential elections.

 

 

Like those of Trump, Putin's actions displays 'irrational behaviour' since his current expelling of all those US diplomatic staff members will, as Michael McFaul explains,

"It may sound like tough talk .. but in fact in many times he's hurting Russians not Americans when he does these kinds of responses ..." (MSNBC : 30/7/2017) (my emphasis)

And as Putin is 'throwing a tantrum' by retaliating against the new US sanctions against himself and his kleptocratic siloviki clique, RFERL reports that,

"Ukraine says that one of its soldiers was killed and nine others injured in fighting with Russia-backed separatists in the east of the country.

Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council said on July 30 that the bulk of the casualties over the previous 24 hours were sustained in the front-line town of Krasnohorivka due to shelling from separatist forces." (RFERL : July 30, 2017) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that,

"The situation in the Luhansk sector escalated most by the end of the day when the Russian-backed militants used grenade launchers and small arms several times to attack the Ukrainian positions in the villages of Novo-Oleksandrivka, Novotoshkivske, and Stanytsia Luhanska. 

In addition, the Ukrainian fortified positions in the village of Krymske came under mortar fire at about 21:00 Kyiv time on Sunday, July 30." (UNIAN : 31 July 2017) (my emphasis)

It should always be borne in mind that the whole of the EU-US sanctions regime against Putin and his kleptocratic siloviki Kremlin clique has its origin in Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, which he invaded in 2014.

Now the 'US sanctions-removal payback' that Putin expected of Trump for getting Trump into the White House is crumbling to dust in his very hands.

And just as Putin's expectations of US sanctions removal is crumbling to dust in his hands, so the spectre of impeachment is beginning to haunt Trump, as the possibilities for his impeachment begins to slowly bubble to the surface.

The scarlet thread of Maidan is weaving itself even more tighter around Putin and Trump.

(to be continued)

What will Merkel and Macron do if Putin steps into the abyss and simply invades Ukraine?

Two days ago I stated that,


"Putin's only real outlet now is to accelerate his aim to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine" by possibly expanding his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

As I stated earlier, "Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine". (blog entry 23/7/2017)

And so it is that,

" As the bloody standoff in Ukraine reaches its annual apex month for violence, Kiev claims Russia is sending more troops near its borders, while the Kremlin has snapped back that it has every right to do so.
...
“The organizational and staff structure, the arms and the military equipment that is approaching for reinforcement, indicates that these Russian divisions are striking forces in their essence and are intended for carrying out rapid offensive actions,” [Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Viktor Muzhenko (left)] said.
...
Russian troops have previously dug in near the Ukrainian border, including near separatist-held lands, at times of impending fighting. Observers regularly record peaks in cease-fire violations during August." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 24/7/2017) (my emphasis)

Christopher Miller (right) also reports that,

"The new U.S. special envoy for Ukraine peace negotiations said he was stunned by the number of cease-fire violations in the ex-Soviet nation’s war-torn east [Donbas] after making his first visit to the region.
...
"This is not a frozen conflict, this is a hot war, and it's an immediate crisis that we all need to address as quickly as possible," Volker told reporters in the government-controlled eastern city." (RFERL : July 24, 2017) (my emphasis)

Underlining his assessment that the war between Putin and Ukraine is a 'hot' war,

"The new US special representative for Ukraine says Washington is actively reviewing whether to send weapons to help those fighting against Russian-backed rebels.

Kurt Volker told the BBC that arming Ukrainian government forces could change Moscow's approach.

He said he did not think the move would be provocative." (BBC News : 25 July, 2017) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Monday demanded Russia's Vladimir Putin halt arms supplies to rebels as the leaders of France and Germany tried to revive a peace plan.
...
After a spike in violence, the four leaders [Merkel, Putin, Macron, Poroshenko] discussed the Ukraine crisis for two hours by telephone in the latest round of talks aimed at stilling a conflict that has killed 10,000 people since April 2014" (ABS-CBN (Agence France Press) :  Jul 25 2017) (my emphasis) 

True to form, whilst Volker is stating that arming Ukrainian government forces would not be a provocative act, and could change Putin's approach,

"Separately, the German government said the leaders had agreed [during their 4-way telephone conversation on Monday] on the priority of achieving the withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons from certain zones. [This, whilst Putin is reinforcing his troops on the Ukrainian border for an imminent attack against Ukraine]
...
[ And that] Merkel and Macron "encouraged reciprocal measures, the exchange of prisoners before the end of the year... and the renewal of economic relations," Berlin added." (ibid ABS-CBN) (my emphasis)

"The renewal of economic relations???? Really???"

Which 'economic' relations???

Between Russia and Ukraine???


Or is this a rather subtle way of saying that if all the 'reciprocal measures' and the 'exchange of prisoners' take place before the end of the year, then the EU sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic siloviki clique will be forthwith dropped.

Right now Putin has to weigh up the chances of Washington flooding Ukraine with sophisticated arms if he decides on a full-frontal invasion of eastern Ukraine. 

But the question that really needs to be answered is,

"What will the likes of Merkel and Macron do to help Ukraine if Putin throws caution to the wind and steps into the abyss by invading Ukraine?"

(to be continued)