What will Merkel and Macron do if Putin steps into the abyss and simply invades Ukraine?

Two days ago I stated that,


"Putin's only real outlet now is to accelerate his aim to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine" by possibly expanding his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

As I stated earlier, "Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine". (blog entry 23/7/2017)

And so it is that,

" As the bloody standoff in Ukraine reaches its annual apex month for violence, Kiev claims Russia is sending more troops near its borders, while the Kremlin has snapped back that it has every right to do so.
...
“The organizational and staff structure, the arms and the military equipment that is approaching for reinforcement, indicates that these Russian divisions are striking forces in their essence and are intended for carrying out rapid offensive actions,” [Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Viktor Muzhenko (left)] said.
...
Russian troops have previously dug in near the Ukrainian border, including near separatist-held lands, at times of impending fighting. Observers regularly record peaks in cease-fire violations during August." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 24/7/2017) (my emphasis)

Christopher Miller (right) also reports that,

"The new U.S. special envoy for Ukraine peace negotiations said he was stunned by the number of cease-fire violations in the ex-Soviet nation’s war-torn east [Donbas] after making his first visit to the region.
...
"This is not a frozen conflict, this is a hot war, and it's an immediate crisis that we all need to address as quickly as possible," Volker told reporters in the government-controlled eastern city." (RFERL : July 24, 2017) (my emphasis)

Underlining his assessment that the war between Putin and Ukraine is a 'hot' war,

"The new US special representative for Ukraine says Washington is actively reviewing whether to send weapons to help those fighting against Russian-backed rebels.

Kurt Volker told the BBC that arming Ukrainian government forces could change Moscow's approach.

He said he did not think the move would be provocative." (BBC News : 25 July, 2017) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Monday demanded Russia's Vladimir Putin halt arms supplies to rebels as the leaders of France and Germany tried to revive a peace plan.
...
After a spike in violence, the four leaders [Merkel, Putin, Macron, Poroshenko] discussed the Ukraine crisis for two hours by telephone in the latest round of talks aimed at stilling a conflict that has killed 10,000 people since April 2014" (ABS-CBN (Agence France Press) :  Jul 25 2017) (my emphasis) 

True to form, whilst Volker is stating that arming Ukrainian government forces would not be a provocative act, and could change Putin's approach,

"Separately, the German government said the leaders had agreed [during their 4-way telephone conversation on Monday] on the priority of achieving the withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons from certain zones. [This, whilst Putin is reinforcing his troops on the Ukrainian border for an imminent attack against Ukraine]
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[ And that] Merkel and Macron "encouraged reciprocal measures, the exchange of prisoners before the end of the year... and the renewal of economic relations," Berlin added." (ibid ABS-CBN) (my emphasis)

"The renewal of economic relations???? Really???"

Which 'economic' relations???

Between Russia and Ukraine???


Or is this a rather subtle way of saying that if all the 'reciprocal measures' and the 'exchange of prisoners' take place before the end of the year, then the EU sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic siloviki clique will be forthwith dropped.

Right now Putin has to weigh up the chances of Washington flooding Ukraine with sophisticated arms if he decides on a full-frontal invasion of eastern Ukraine. 

But the question that really needs to be answered is,

"What will the likes of Merkel and Macron do to help Ukraine if Putin throws caution to the wind and steps into the abyss by invading Ukraine?"

(to be continued)