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Sunday, 23 July 2017

Neither Putin nor Trump can easily escape from the corner into which they have both painted themselves.

As the US Senate and Congressional Intelligence Committees continue to gather mounting evidence of the collusion between Putin and Trump's lieuetenants during the 2016 US presidential elections, UNIAN reports that,

"President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin instructed his aides and intelligence services to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine," head of the SBU Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Hrytsak told a Saturday briefing in Kyiv, according to an UNIAN correspondent.
....
Today, the intelligence services of the Russian Federation are trying to destabilize the situation in Ukraine by organizing artificial provocative protests," said Hrytsak." (UNIAN : 22 July 2017) (my emphasis

This Putin 'reset' of his war with Ukraine includes not only the organizing of artificial provocative protests and the assasination of Putin critics in Ukraine,  but also includes an escalation of military attacks against the Ukrainian army by his Russian soldiers and Russian proxies in the Donbas.


As reported by Daniel Brown and the Associated Press,

"At least 20 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and at least 35 more have been wounded in the first 20 days of July, according to Liveuamap." (Business Insider : Jul. 20, 2017) (my emphasis)
 

Is it this 'spike' in Putin's war with Ukraine that has precipitated Emmanuel Macron (left), the French President,

"[to] call the leaders of Russia, Germany and Ukraine on Monday to discuss the conflict in eastern Ukraine, his office said in a statement, as world powers step up efforts to try to end the violence in the region."? (Sudip Kar-Gupta : Reuters : July 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my last blog entry,

"Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine" (blog entry20/7/2017)

This is especially in light of the fact that only through the use of violence does Putin now believe he has a powerful bargaining chip in getting the US-EU sanctions removed.

It should also be remembered that,

"Tillerson (right) said on June 14 that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump did not wish to be "handcuffed" by the 2015 accords, and he suggested Kiev could reach a separate, independent agreement with Moscow." (ibid Sudip Kar-Gupta) (my emphasis)

Sudip Kar-Gupta further reports that,

"Macron met Poroshenko in June, shortly after winning the French presidential election.

At the time, Macron had said he saw no better way of negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine than through the Minsk agreements - comments that contrasted with those of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson." (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's current woes, notwithstanding  his instructing his aides and intelligence services to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine, Barbara Kollmeyer (left) reports that,

"German industrial group Siemens AG SIE, -2.05% said Friday that it will quit a joint-venture with a Russian power plant after four gas turbines destined for Russia were instead diverted to Crimea, Reuters reported Friday. Siemens said the action violates EU sanctions put in place after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014" (Marketwatch : July 21, 2017) (my emphasis)


And now we have Lesley Wroughton and David Shepardson (left) reporting that,

"U.S. Republicans and Democrats have reached agreement on legislation that allows new sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea, leading congressional Democrats said on Saturday, in a bill that would limit any potential effort by President Donald Trump to try to lift sanctions against Moscow.
...
Under the proposed bill, Trump must submit to Congress a report on proposed actions that would "significantly alter" U.S. foreign policy in connection with Russia, including easing sanctions or returning diplomatic properties in Maryland and New York that former President Barack Obama ordered vacated in December." (Reuters : July 22, 2017) (my emphasis)


Neither Putin nor Trump can now easily escape from the corner into which they have both painted themselves.

Already Trump is examining the option of his "powers of pardon" as Don Trump Jnr., Jared Kushner, possibly Ivanka Trump, and himself, begin to face the real possibility of serious criminal charges being laid against them.

As reported by Andrew Blake,

"President Trump claimed Saturday he has “the complete power to pardon,” publicly responding for the first time to recent news reports suggesting he’s seeking pardons for individuals being investigated by prosecutors probing Russia’s role in last year’s White House race, including relatives, staffers and himself. (Washington Times : Saturday, July 22, 2017 ) (my emphasis) 


Putin's only real outlet now is to accelerate his aim to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine" by possibly expanding his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

As I stated earlier, "Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine".

(to be continued)

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