Is Putin worrying about the response of the Russian people to his presidential victory next year?

In February of this year (2 February,2017), shortly after President Trump's inauguration,  Lili Bayer (left) reported that,

"As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to make a rare trip to the European Union Thursday, his choice of destination — Hungary — reveals a shift in the Kremlin’s strategy in Europe following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Putin has met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán several times since the Hungarian leader came to power in 2010." (Politico-Eu: 2/2/17) (my emphasis)

She goes on to report that,

"...Putin and his entourage will be arriving in Hungary with one clear priority: to clarify and strengthen Orbán’s opposition to EU sanctions on Russia.

“There is a Russian hope that Orbán will step up against the sanctions, not just rhetorically,” said Deák. “For the Russians, it is important to find a European country that will be the first mover on this.” (ibid Lili Bayer) (my emphasis)

Fast foreward to October 2017, and UNIAN reports that Ukraine's new Education Law states that,

"Persons who belong to the indigenous peoples, national minorities of Ukraine, who have started to receive general secondary education before September 1, 2018, shall continue to receive such education by September 1, 2020, in accordance with the rules enforced before the new law becomes effective, with a gradual increase in the number of classes taught in Ukrainian." (UNIAN : 16 October 2017) (my emphasis)

And lo and behold ....

Just as Putin used the Russian language issue to invade and annex Unkrainian Crimea, and then subsequently to start a war with Ukraine in the Donbas, we now have Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto (right), ranting that,

“There is a brutal violation of the human rights in the neighborhood of the European Union since the Ukrainian parliament has passed the law on education where they violated very heavily the rights of the minorities as they have taken away the right of all the minorities to use exclusively their native language in education above the age of ten,” Szijjarto said, according to an UNIAN correspondent."
(ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

 Even more sinister,

"Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto later announced his country's intention to block any further rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU over the language row." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

It should come as no surprise that Putin's 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini,  High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is supportive of the Hungarian argument about minority violations. She stated that,

"Brussels will continue the dialogue with Kyiv on possible violations of minority rights with Ukraine’s new law on education based on the opinion of the Venice Commission due to be issued in December..." (UNIAN : 17 October 2017) (my emphasis)

Also, as Putin's propaganda mouthpiece Sputnik reports, it should also come as no surprise that,

"Trade between Russia and Hungary saw positive dynamics as it increased by up to 27 percent in the first half of 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday at a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban." (Sputnik : 28.08.2017) (my emphasis)
 

And as reported by Krisztina Than (left), 

"Trade ties between Russia and Hungary include a gas supply pact with Gazprom and a deal for Russia to finance and build a nuclear power plant. Construction is due to start next year." (Reuters: Sep. 29, 2017) 

But whilst Putin may be delighted with the threat of Orban to block any further rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU over the language row, and the implicit support being given to Orban's contrived argument by the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, things are not going too well in Ukrainian Crimea for Putin.  

• The water shortage in Crimea is having dire consequences, so much so that some think that Crimeans may have to be resettled, warning of a humanitarian crisis

• Some Crimeans are rueing the day that they voted in favour of Putin annexing Ukrainian Crimea
• The building of the bridge between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea across the Kerch Strait continues to drain vast amounts of money away from Russia's internal infrastructure investment
• Russians are awakening to the true nature of the Putin regime

Just like Donald Trump's promise to build "a beautiful wall" between the US and Mexico, Putin is determined to build a "beautiful bridge" between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea, irrespective of the cost and suffering that the Russian people will have to endure in the process.

Trump, however,  continues to be weighed down by the mounting evidence of the collusion between himself and his acolytes, and Putin, during the 2016 US presidential elections. 

Trump's impeachment is now beginning to enter into the public arena, just as the exposure of Putin's interference in the US presidential election of 2016 continues to emerge into the light of day. (cf.: Patrick Reevell : Yahoo News : October 15, 2017, tvrain (Russian):14 октября, 2016)

Putin will be the winner in the 2018 Russian presidential elections, without the help of any interference from outside sources.

What is not certain for Putin is how the Russian people will respond to his electoral victory. 

(to be continued)

Neither Putin nor Trump can disentangle themselves from the scarlet thread of Maidan that binds them together.

On the 5th of this month I wrote that,

"As reported by Patricia Zengerle,

"Two months after signing it, President Donald Trump has not begun enforcing a law imposing new sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea, Senators John McCain (left) and Ben Cardin said in a letter seen by Reuters on Friday

Also, with just two days to go, his administration has not provided information related to Russia’s defense and intelligence sectors required under the measure by Sunday, they said." (Reuters :September 29, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Surkov and Volker's impending meeting could be due to Putin's awarness that the net of impeachment is now fast falling upon Trump." (blog entry: 5/10/2017)

This deadline has now passed, and Trump has, as yet, NOT signed into law the Sanctions Bill detailing sanctions against Putin because of his meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections, and which was passed UNANIMOUSLY by BOTH the US Senate and House of Congress.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (right) (MSNBC : The Rachel Maddow Show 12/10/17)

"The president signed the Russian sanctions bill on August 2nd (2017), and here's the interesting part ... signed it on August 2nd ... the thing he signed ... that new law ... gave him a deadline of October 1st to implement these new sanctions against Russia to punish them for attacking our election .... It's now October 12th, and those sanctions are not in place .. He [Trump] has not done anything ..."
 
US Congressman Adam Schiff (left), during Maddow's interview with him, also states that,

"One of the things alleged in the [Steele] dossier ... which we are investigating ... try to corroborate ... is the claim that there was an agreement (between Trump officials and Putin) to ease sanctions on [Russia] to get derogatory information on Hillary Clinton" (cf video below)

Flailing Trump is now also trying to 'legitimise' getting rid of incriminating information that not only exposes the 'collusion' between Putin and himself during the 2016 US presidential election, but also exposes the fact that his sacking of James Comey, former FBI director, was done soley to obstruct the FBI from gathering the information that categorically proves that such collusion took place.

It now transpires that, contrary to the Presidential Records Act,

"... Trump administration staffers were using special messaging applications designed to destroy the contents of communications inspired a lawsuit by two open government groups." (Adam Mazmanian (right): FCW : Oct 10, 2017) (my emphasis)

Adam Mazmanian goes on to further report that,

"The Justice Department, in a motion to dismiss the lawsuit, argues that the president [Trump] has near-total authority over the disposition of presidential records under the law." (ibid Mazmanian) (my emphasis)

The extent and degree to which Trump will go to eliminate evidence about his collussion with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections seems to know no bounds.

More importantly, the extend and degree to which Trump will go to pay Putin back for helping him gain the White House by witholding signing into law the sanctions against Putin for his interference in the 2016 US presidential elections and, more significantly, also desperately trying to remove those US sanctions against Putin because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, also seems to know no bounds. 

Neither Putin nor Trump can disentangle themselves from the scarlet thread of Maidan that continues to bind them together.

(to be continued)

Is Putin now beginning to be as desperate as Trump is to hold onto power?

On Monday (9/10/2017),

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said, during a visit to Ukraine, that Turkey won’t recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Erdogan said during Monday’s visit to Kiev that Turkey will continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity." (Washington Post (AP) : October 9, 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin was quick to reply to this breaking news. 

As reported by his propaganda mouthpiece, RT, the head of the Russian Upper House Commission for Information Policy Senator Aleksey Pushkov stated that,

“Whether Erdoğan recognizes that Crimea belongs to Russia or not is not likely to change Crimea’s status. He knows that, and he simply says what Poroshenko likes to hear,”(RT:10 Oct, 2017) (my emphasis)

Aleksey Pushkov is desperately trying to downplay what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.

What he CANNOT downplay, however, is the fact that there is a growing dis-satisfaction amongst the Russian people that money is being poured into Ukrainian Crimea by Putin, at their expense.

As reported by Paul Goble, (left) (Window on Eurasia : Sunday, October 8, 2017),

" Russian commentators also are concerned about people in the regions complaining about funding Crimea by taking money away from them and about unfunded liabilities that the center imposes without checking with them (polit.ru/article/2017/10/02/crimea/ and afterempire.info/2017/10/01/spb-bomb/)"

He goes on to report that,

"There are many ways  to measure the desperation of a population, but three reports this week suggest that an increasing number of Russians feel that way.

• some are attacking police in order to get arrested and be sentenced to prison where at least they will be fed (newsland.com/community/5652/content/sibiriak-razbil-litso-politseiskomu-chtoby-popast-v-tiurmu/6024004)
• Russian women are increasingly offering sexual favors to pay for rent (svpressa.ru/society/article/182408/)
•  Russians are now spending two billion rubles (30 million US dollars) on forture tellers who they hope can tell them something good is coming (svpressa.ru/society/article/182427/)
•  Ever more Russians are homeless, many are living on their credit cards, and all are facing rising prices for basic commodities like fish (ibid Paul Goble)

It is also against this backdrop that, as reported by Alec Luhn,

"Police detained more than 100 supporters of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny on Saturday as thousands rallied nationwide on President Vladimir Putin's 65th birthday, calling for the leader to retire. 
.........
[Navalny (right)] was arrested late last month and a court last week sentenced him to 20 days in jail on charges of repeatedly violating a law on organising public meetings." (The Telegraph : 7 October 2017) (my emphasis)

All of this is adding to Putin's desperation to have the US/EU sanctions lifted, that were brought against himself and his 'siloviki' clique because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his simmering war against Ukraine in the Donbas.

Even more concerning for Putin is the fact that Trump, himself, is also desperately flailing in his attempts to have the Steele dossier dis-credited, the dossier that outlines not only Trump's salacious behaviour in Russia but, more importantly, the now verified facts in the dossier about the collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US presidential election.

This desperation of Trump is further indicated by the fact that Congressman Nunes, who was recused from the Congressional investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections, took it upon himself to further try to spike investigations into the Steele dossier.

Rachel Maddow further queries whether US Congressman Nunes has the power to subpoena the head of the company that hired Steele, and that ultimately led to the Steele Dossier.

 

 

It is rather ironic that just as the members of the Russian Duma will always support Putin to ensure their status as members of the Russian Duma so, too, are the Republicans in the US Congress desperate to ensure their status as members of the US Congress by protecting Trump from being impeached, especially in view of the upcoming Congressional elections next year.

 

Russian Duma                                                      US Congress

Is Putin now beginning to be as desperate as Trump is to hold onto power?

(to be continued)

Will Trump's downfall also signal the downfall of Putin?

In my last blog entry I stated that,

"Angela Merkel's political wings have been clipped to the degree that we can safely assume the complete tearing up of the Minsk2 protocols which she has so assiduously championed since they were first drawn up." (blog entry : 2 October, 2017)

This is best illustrated by the fact that, as reported by Ukrinform,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel coordinate approaches for implementing an initiative to deploy a UN peacekeeping operation in Donbas." (Ukrinform : 05 October, Thursday, 2017) (my emphasis)

Recall, however, as reported by Sabine Siebold and Paul Carrel,

"Putin told German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday that UN peacekeepers might be deployed not only on the Donbass contact line separating the sides of the conflict but in other parts where inspectors of the international OSCE monitoring group operate." (Reuters : September 14, 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin specifically ruled out UN peacekeepers patrolling the border between the Ukrainian Donbas and Russia.

Given, therefore, that Putin has agreed to deploying UN peacekeepers in the Donbas why, as reported by Unian, will the

"United States special envoy for Ukraine negotiations Kurt Volker (left) [be holding] a meeting with Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov in Belgrade on October 7 to discuss ways to catalyze the implementation of Minsk agreements on Donbas settlement and restore Ukraine's territorial integrity.?" (Unian : 05 October 2017) (my emphasis)

This is the Vladislav Surkov, Putin's 'Grey Cardinal', who runs the Donbas for Putin.

More significantly, why is the public mention of Ukrainian Crimea being left out of this statement about this impending political meeting between Volker and Surkov in Belgrade?

 

Are we to assume that Ukrainian Crimea is included in the "restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity", even though Putin is forging ahead with building his Kerch Strait bridge, with the help of  2 Dutch companies, that will link Ukrainian Crimea with Russia?

There is another aspect of this impending meeting between Surkov and Volker that should not be ignored.

As reported by Patricia Zengerle,

"Two months after signing it, President Donald Trump has not begun enforcing a law imposing new sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea, Senators John McCain (left) and Ben Cardin said in a letter seen by Reuters on Friday

Also, with just two days to go, his administration has not provided information related to Russia’s defense and intelligence sectors required under the measure by Sunday, they said." (Reuters :September 29, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Surkov and Volker's impending meeting could be due to Putin's awarness that the net of impeachment is now fast falling upon Trump.

Once Trump becomes fully ensnared in this net of impeachment, then those new US sanctions will rapidly be implemented.

And so Putin suggests UN peacekeepers in the Ukrainian Donbas that he now controls, whilst his 'Grey Cardinal', Vladislav Surkov, will have a tête-à-tête with Volker in Belgrade about "the implementation of Minsk agreements on Donbas settlement, and the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity".

The whirlwind of recent political events in Germany and, potentially, Austria, upon which Putin is banking to lift that millstone of EU sanctions around his neck, may yet prove for him to be but an empty wish.

 

Even the the fact that,

"Gerhard Schroeder, the man who Angela Merkel succeeded as Chancellor of Germany, has just been appointed to the chairman’s job at oil company Rosneft." (Geoffrey Smith : Fortune: Sep 29th, 2017) (my emphasis),

will not be able to give Putin the succour that he needs in light of the imminent denouement of Trump.

Will Trump's downfall also signal the downfall of Putin?

(to be continued)

Is Putin now in the driving seat that will determine the fate of Ukraine?

In my last blog I stated that,

"The fallout from the recent German elections is now beginning to take shape, and it is no wonder that Putin's mouthpiece, RT, is cozying up to the AfD political party that won 12.6% of the vote, and now contstitutes the 3rd largest political party in Germany.

Already one can hear the clinking glasses of champagne in the boardrooms of German business." (blog entry: 28 September, 2017)

Putin's jubilation at this result in the German elections stems primarily from the fact that it further adds pressure on Angela Merkel to move faster in the direction of supporting the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'. 

Putin's eyes are now firmly fixed on October 15, when 8.75 million Austrians head to the polls.

As Zoie O'Brien (left) reports,

" Sebastian Kurz, also known as "Wunderwuzzi" has successfully rebranded the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and looks set to propel them into Government in the coming elections.

The vote could spell trouble for the EU as 31-year-old Mr Kurz has not ruled out a partnership with the nationalist Freedom Party (FPO)." (Express : Sun, Oct 1, 2017) (my emphasis)

Recall that in December 2016, when then Foreign Minister of Austria, Sebastian Kurz, was to take over the chairing of the OSCE in January 2017, one of his stated aims was,

" ... to seek through the organization a change of the EU sanctions policy toward Russia, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Austria Sebastian Kurtz has told Spiegel.

"We must once again restore trust here in Europe and shift from the path of sanctions with the system of penalties to the path of creating a system of incentives," said Kurz." (Unian : 30 December 2016) (my emphasis)

Coupled with the fact that Sebastian Kurz is the front-runner in the upcoming Austrian elections, Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee that Austria's Freedom Party, "founded in the 1950s by, among others, former Nazis", 

" ...  is riding high in the country’s opinion polls and has a good chance of joining any coalition government after elections on October 15, a year earlier than planned." (Ralph Atkins : Financial Times : May 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

Like its sister party in Germany, the AfD (Alternative for Germany), which has,

" ...taken a very pro-Russia stance, calling for Western sanctions against Moscow over its involvement in the Ukraine conflict to be dropped" (Frank Jordans : The Washington Post : Sept. 24, 2017)(my emphasis),


the  leader of the Freedom Party of Austria, Heinze-Christian Strache (left), similarly,

"... call[s] to lift "damaging and pointless international sanctions" against Russia over its actions in Ukraine, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea and its backing of separatists in the southeast of the country." (RFERL : December 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin-supported Right-Wing parties in Germany and Austria are gaining critical political power, Matthias Williams and Pavel Polityuk report that,

"Russia has left troops behind after staging war games in Belarus despite promising not to, Ukraine’s Commander in Chief Viktor Muzhenko told Reuters.

In an interview on a military plane on Thursday evening, Muzhenko said Russia has withdrawn only a few units from Belarus and had lied about how many of its soldiers were there in the first place" (Reuters : September 29, 2017) (my emphasis)  

Just prior to Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus, Poroshenko warned that,

" .... Russia could use massive military manoeuvres next week as a cover for invasion.

In a major speech, Mr Poroshenko said Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus might be "a smokescreen to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory". (BBC : 7 September, 2017) (my emphasis)

This warning of Poroshenko now has to be viewed against the backdrop of the success of the AfD party in Germany, and the expected success of the Freedom Party of Austria, BOTH of whom are calling for the lifting of sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clique.

Angela Merkel's political wings have been clipped to the degree that we can safely assume the complete tearing up of the Minsk2 protocols which she has so assiduously championed since they were first drawn up.

The only thing that will now unseat Putin from being in the political driving seat and that will determine the fate of Ukraine will be the impeachment of Trump, and the full implementation of the support for Ukraine emanating from the US Senate and Congress, including the arming of Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry.

(to be continued)

Is Putin hitching a ride on the crest of the success of the AfD political wave in Germany?

The fallout from the recentb German elections is now beginning to take shape, and it is no wonder that Putin's mouthpiece, RT, is cozying up to the AfD political party that won 12.6% of the vote, and now contstitutes the 3rd largest political party in Germany.

Already one can hear the clinking glasses of champagne in the boardrooms of German business.

It will also embolden Sigmar Gabriel (left) to push for, what he refers to as, "a new détente with Russia".

As reported by Radio Poland,

"According to Gabriel, an argument voiced by some in Europe that sanctions against Russia should only be lifted after the so-called Minsk agreements are 100 percent implemented is “unrealistic," niezalezna.pl said." (Radio Poland : 21.09.2017) (my emphasis)

The political clout of Angela Merkel has been spiked by this political result of the AfD party, and it does not bode well for Merkel's pet political project, the implementation of the Minsk II agreement that has been fraught with Putin constantly stoking a breakdown of the ceasefire that has been agreed upon.

Already Putin is accelerating this breakdown.

As reported by RFERL,

"Ukrainian leaders said "sabotage" was behind massive explosions at an ammunition depot in central Ukraine that prompted the evacuation of more than 30,000 people and the closure of airspace over the region on September 27." (RFERL : September 28, 2017) (my emphasis)

This comes close on the heels of an earlier explosion that occurred in March 2017 in Eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Kyle Mizokami,

"The incident is strikingly similar to one that happened last March at another ammo dump at Balakliya, a military base in Eastern Ukraine, and both fit a pattern of attacks going back nearly two years." (PopularMechanics : Sep 27, 2017)    

 
Meanwhile the US Senate and Congressional Intelligence investigations into Putin interfering in the 2016 US Presidential elections continues to unearth exactly how Putin helped Trump into the White House.

Putin may have helped Trump into the White House but, unlike the AfD success in the German elections that is bringing him closer to the lifting of the EU sanctions against him, with the support of Sigmar Gabriel and the German business lobby, Putin is having to keep a wary eye on what is transpiring in the US.

Donald Trump is heading more rapidly towards an impeachment process as Facebook and Twitter are now firmly in the sights of the Senate and Congressional Intelligence Committees.

As much as Trump wants to also thank Putin by lifting the US sanctions against him, unfortunately for Trump neither the US Senate, nor the US Congress, is equivalent to Putin's rubber-stamping Russian Duma.

(to be continued)

Putin praying for the success of the AfD German political party in Sunday's Bundestag elections.

This coming Sunday, the 24th of September,

"Federal elections will be held in Germany [ ....  ]to elect the members of the 19th Bundestag. The new Bundestag will have to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members, who will in turn form a new government. (Wikipedia)

If the German polls are anything to go by,

"The German Chancellor [Angela Merkel] currently look set to storm to victory in the German election in September 2017 after managing to widen her lead over Martin Schulz in recent months. 
...
[...] the CDU/CSU now have now won back a staggering 16-point lead with 37 per cent support, compared to just 21 per cent for the SNP, according to the same poll September" (Alice Foster : Daily Express : 14 September, 2017) (my emphasis)

In the wings, however, is the AfD Party in Germany.

"In a sign of the growing discontent, the anti-euro, anti-Islam and anti-immigration AfD is tipped to become the first hard-right party to clear the five-percent bar to win seats in the national parliament since the end of World War II. ( Rappler (Agence France Presse) :  September 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

Since its launch in 2013, the AfD Party in Germany has emphasised that,

"More powers must return to the nation states, AfD says, opposing all "centralising" moves in the EU, and anything that smacks of Euro-federalism." (BBC News : 18 September 2017) (my emphasis)

This nationalist political agenda of the AfD party mirrors what Trump said throughout his presidential election campaign in 2016, and at his inaugural speech at the UN yesterday. (19 September, 2017)

It also mirrors Putin's nationalist argument about 'protecting' Russians, by his invading and annexing of Ukrainian Crimea, and subsequently invading Ukraine in the Donbas, in 2014.

• Speaking last year (2014), Mr Putin had said only that he took his final decision about Crimea after secret, undated opinion polls showed 80% of Crimeans favoured joining Russia.  (BBC : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)
• In his address to the Russian State Duma Deputies (March 18, 2014) he stated his nationalist 'Novorossiya' argument for invading and annexing Crimea. "In people’s hearts and minds, [he said,] Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia. This firm conviction is based on truth and justice and was passed from generation to generation, over time, under any circumstances, despite all the dramatic changes our country went through during the entire 20^th century." (The Kremlin : March 18, 2014) (my emphasis)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his government was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, despite previously denying that Moscow plays any formal role in the conflict in the Donbas regions. (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 10/12/16) (my emphasis)

It is also these of Putin's actions, wrapped up in his nationalist "Novorossiya" flag, that led to the millstone of EU and US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' now hanging around his neck, and that ultimately led him to help Trump into the White House in 2018.

Putin expected those US sanctions to be removed, as well as the normalization of US-Russia relations when Trump, thanks to Putin, entered the White House.

As reported by John Hudson,

" In the third month of Donald Trump’s presidency, Vladimir Putin dispatched one of his diplomats to the State Department to deliver a bold proposition: the full normalization of relations between the United States and Russia across all major branches of government.

The proposal, spelled out in a detailed document obtained by BuzzFeed News, called for the wholesale restoration of diplomatic, military, and intelligence channels severed between the two countries after Russia’s military interventions in Ukraine and Syria.

The broad scope of the Kremlin’s reset plan came with an ambitious launch date: immediately." (Buzzfeed News : September 12, 2017) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin, the intelligence investigations into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections in the US Senate and House of Congress rather put paid to this bold idea of his.

Now Putin's hope is that in the upcoming elections in Germany this Sunday, the AfD party,

"...could lead the opposition in the Bundestag, a role that traditionally carries additional privileges, such as the presidency of the parliament’s budget committee.

According to a projection published last week by Berlin’s Tagesspiegel newspaper, the far-right party [AfD] could end up with as many of 89 out of 703 members in the Bundestag." (Philip Oltermann (right): The Guardian : Sunday 17 September 2017) (my emphasis)

Such a result would be sweet music to the ears of Putin and his German business buddies, since an AfD presidency of the Bundestag's budget committee would add further pressure for the lifting of the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clan.

Putin must now be praying for the success of the AfD German political party in Sunday's Bundestag elections. 

(to be continued)

How far will Putin now go in the Donbas to get NordStream2 off the drawing board?

Suddenly there has been a 'flurry' of diplomatic phone calls and meetings since Putin floated the idea with Angela Merkel for UN 'peacekeepers' to patrol the front-line in the Donbas.

Angela Merkel welcomed this 'gesture' of Putin's and saw in it a new opportunity for detente.

Of course, Angela Merkel is coming up for re-election, whilst the powerful German business lobby is now using this political 'gesture' of Putin's to further strengthen their hand into calling for the lifting of  the EU sanctions that were put in place when Putin decided to invade, and then annex, Ukrainian Crimea, whilst also sending his troops into the Donbas under the guise of 'protecting' Russian speakers.

Meanwhile, that 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, had a bit of a chit-chat with US Secretary of State Tillerson, where they discussed, among other things,

" ..... the “necessity of increasing efforts on implementing the Minsk agreements on settling the crisis in the South-East of Ukraine” was also mentioned. (112UA : 17 September 2017) (my emphasis)

Now whilst Merkel and German businessmen are 'lauding' this gesture of Putin, Kurt Volker (left), US Special Representative to Ukraine, stated that, 
 
"It was very interesting last week to see how Russia offers a peacekeeping mission, a UN mission, something that Russia had previously said it would not support, something that was proposed after consultations in the Normandy format with the US and others. I think, the details of what was proposed, in fact, will even more divide Ukraine, and not solve the problem, "[Volker] said. (112UA : 16 September 2017) (my emphasis)
 
This 'sudden' UN peacekeepers idea of Putin's signals his anxiety to get the Nord Stream2 pipeline up and running as soon as possible, without giving these UN peacekeepers carte blanche to extend their services along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Donbas. 

Kurt Volker is correct in saying that,

"I think, the details of what was proposed, in fact, will even more divide Ukraine, and not solve the problem"

UN Peacekeepers in the Donbas will not help Putin with NordStream2.  

Putin and his German "Putin Versteher" NordStream2 business cabal also have to contend with the US Senate passing of a bill to,

" .... impose sanctions on companies involved in funding Russian export pipeline projects – the latest in a series of steps designed to use Russian economic interests as leverage over Kremlin policy on Ukraine." (Nick Butler (right): Financial Times: July 3, 2017)  

Even more disconcerting for Putin and his German business buddies is the fact that,

"Thirteen EU member states have protested against the Nord Stream project, saying it will divert trade and transit revenues away from them and increase European dependence on Russian gas for decades to come. The protesting states want the European Commission to take control of negotiations of the project away from Germany and to set gas trade in the context of the Energy Union – a concept agreed in 2014 but never implemented. (ibid Nick Butler)

And now the battle in the EU over NordStream2 is hotting up.

As Anca Gurzu (left) reports,

"The big battle over Gazprom’s plan to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begins this autumn — two years before it is slated to start pumping gas from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany.

Deep differences among EU countries on how to regulate the project are likely to emerge — testing the bloc’s unity on how to deal with Moscow and how to advance the EU’s energy diversification plans." (Politico : 4 September, 2017) (my emphasis)


These differences cannot be wished away by Angela Merkel,

"...  who rarely speaks publicly about the proposed pipeline, told journalists in June there’s no need for a negotiating mandate because Nord Stream 2 is a commercial endeavor." (ibid Anca Gurzu) (my emphasis)

By simply calling NordStream2  a "commercial endeavor", Angela Merkel seems to be ignoring the fact that,

"The [EU] Commission is in the midst of a massive antitrust case against Gazprom, and the geopolitical situation is vastly different following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. There is concern that Nord Stream 2 would bypass existing pipelines running across Ukraine, a source of crucial cash for the country." (ibid Anca Gurzu) (my emphasis)

How far will Putin  now go in the Donbas to get NordStream2 off the drawing board? 

(to be continued)

Why is Trump vacillating in supplying Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry?

Recall that at 2017 BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province in China, September 4, 2017,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that any decision by the United States to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine would fuel the conflict in eastern Ukraine and possibly prompt pro-Russian separatists to expand their campaign there" (Denis Pinchuk : Reuters : September 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

This was a response of Putin to U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis (right) who in Kiev, on Ukraine's Independence Day, stated that,

“On the defensive lethal weapons, we are actively reviewing it, I will go back now having seen the current situation and be able to inform the secretary of state and the president in very specific terms what I recommend for the direction ahead,” Mattis said.

“Defensive weapons are not provocative unless you are an aggressor and clearly Ukraine is not an aggressor since it is their own territory where the fighting is happening,” Mattis said" (Idrees Ali and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : August 24, 2017) (my emphasis) 

And in three day's time, as Jonathan Marcus reports,

"It is being billed as a military exercise, but when Russian and Belarusian forces start Zapad-2017 this week, many neighbouring countries will be looking on nervously.

Zapad-2017 ("West-2017") is a joint strategic-level exercise involving Russian and Belarusian military forces, expected to begin on 14 September in Russia's western military district Kaliningrad, and across Belarus." (BBC News : 11 September, 2017) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's President, Petro Poroshenko, is in no doubt about the threat that Putin's Zapad-2017 so-called 'military exercises' poses for Ukraine.

"[..] President Petro Poroshenko says he fears that Russia could use massive military manoeuvres next week as a cover for invasion.

In a major speech, Mr Poroshenko said Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus might be "a smokescreen to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory". (BBC News : 7 September 2017) (my emphasis)

This possible Putin smokescreen "to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory" would be aided by the fact that:

• Donald Trump and his White House staff are currently pre-occupied with the devastating effects that hurricane Irma is having on Florida, and
• Angela Merkel is currently caught up in the throes of the German Chancellorship elections.

Added to which, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis simply recommended to Trump and Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, that the US should supply Ukraine with defensive lethal weapons.

This recommendation of Mattis to Trump and Tillerson (right: Tillerson & Trump) that the US supply Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry happened towards the end of August, before hurricane Irma formed.

And whilst Trump has not yet signed off on supplying Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry, NATO Chief General Jens Stoltenberg has,

"...  urged Moscow to meet its international commitments to be fully transparent about war games planned for next month in Belarus and western Russia. 

"We are going to be watching very closely the course of these exercises," Stoltenberg told journalists in Warsaw on August 25.." (RFERL : August 25, 2017) (my emphasis)

Which begs the question,

"Why is Donald Trump vacillating in giving the go-ahead to supply Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry?"

(to be continued)