The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to bind Trump and Putin together even more tightly.

Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump administration has approved the first ever U.S. commercial sale of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, in a clear break from the de facto U.S. ban on arms sales that dates back to the Obama administration.....

“We have crossed the Rubicon, this is lethal weapons and I predict more will be coming,” said one senior congressional official. It’s likely no mere coincidence that Canada also approved lethal defense sales to Ukraine this week, which would happen only if the Canadian government knew the United States was on board, the official said." (The Washington Post : 20 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

This decision to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons by the Trump Administration and Canada comes as Alessandra Prentice (right) reports that,

"On Monday [18 December, 2017], the Russian foreign ministry [read Putin] said it was recalling officers serving at the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination (JCCC) in Ukraine, accusing the Ukrainian side of obstructing their work and limiting access to the front line.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Stepan Poltorak and security chief Olekshandr Turchynov (left) said the decision, coupled with a recent surge in fighting in the eastern Donbass region, suggested Russia had switched to a more offensive strategy.

“We cannot rule out that they withdrew their officers in order to start stepping up not only military provocations but also military operations,” Turchynov said. “We will strengthen our positions at the front.” (Reuters : 20 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

This recent surge in attacks against Ukrainian forces by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies is causing alarm amongst members of the EU (cf: Fox News,  Eyewitness News, Yahoo News)  as well as in the OSCE.

Even Kurt Volker (left), whom Rex Tillerson appointed as the United States Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, had to admit that,

“Russia withdrew its officers from JCCC - a ceasefire implementation tool - right before a massive escalation in ceasefire violations. Ukraine just suffered some of the worst fighting since February, 2017. Decision for peace lies with Russia,” Volker tweeted on Tuesday. " (ibid Alessandra Prentice) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as Putin is ramping up his war with Ukraine, Trump's lieutenants in the US Congress and Senate are ramping up their war against Special Prosecutor Mueller, as well as against the FBI, in the hope that they can end the investigations by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Congressional Intelligence Committee, and the Mueller investigation, into the collussion between Trump and his 'siloviki', and Putin and his  Kremlin 'siloviki', that led to Trump now occupying the White House.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (MSNBC: 20 December, 2017),

Rachel Maddow further reports (20 December, 2017) that central to Trump's lieutenants attack on the Robert Mueller investigation into the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections is their attempt to discredit the Christopher Steele dossier, the dossier that exposes the indelible link between Trump and Putin, and that Putin is holding over the head of Trump as blackmail.

Now it may, indeed, be pure 'coincidence' that

• Putin is ramping up his war with Ukraine and, simultaneously,
• Trump's lieutenants are ramping up their war against Special Council Robert Mueller and, in particular, against the Christopher Steele dossier.

It may also be pure 'coincidence' that, as reported by Kevin Liptak,


".... Donald Trump spoke by phone on Sunday [December 17, 2017] from a cabin at Camp David to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, the press release describing their call featured something unusual: an exclamation point.
...
The theatric punctuation seemed designed to underscore the cheery tenor of the conversation, during which Putin thanked Trump for the CIA's help in thwarting a terror plot on St. Petersburg, Russia. " (CNN:  December 19, 2017) (my emphasis)

It may also be pure 'coincidence' that Putin described the Maidan revolution of 2014 as a 'coup' against the then Ukrainian president, Victor Yanukovich, just as some Fox News commentators and Republican Congressmen are now describing Special Prosecutor Mueller's investigation into the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections as a 'coup' against US president Donald Trump.

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to bind Trump and Putin together even more tightly.

 

(to be continued)

Putin cannot remove the "economic millstone" around his neck, nor can he remove the "noose of impeachment" dandling above the head of Trump.

Agence France Press (AFP) reported that President Vladimir Putin, speaking at his annual press conference in Moscow on December 14, 2017, stated that,

"President Vladimir Putin said Russians “do not want and will not stand for” a Ukraine-style coup as he responded to a question from a rival presidential candidate at his annual press conference on Thursday.

...

“We don’t want a second edition of today’s Ukraine for Russia, do we?” asked Putin, referring to the pro-Western 2014 “Maidan” uprisings that culminated in the ouster of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych.
...
“We won’t let it happen.” (AFP : 14 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

This fear of Putin stems from the stagnating Russian economy that continues to impoverish the Russian people.

As reported by Slava Rabinovich (left),

"After 18 years of Putin's rule, Putin will again take Russia with 23 million people living below the poverty line and leave Russia after his death with 100 million people living below the poverty line.. 

[После 18 лет путинского правления Путин снова возьмет Россию с 23 миллионами человек, живущими за чертой бедности, и оставит Россию после своей смерти со 100 миллионами человек, живущими за чертой бедности.] (Gordonua : December 8, 2017) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The European Union has extended sanctions against Russia because of the stalled peace process in Ukraine.
...
EU Council President Donald Tusk (right) said at Thursday's summit of the 28 EU leaders that they were "united on the roll-over of economic sanctions on Russia." (Fox News (AP) : 15 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

Now recall that Tom Towers recently reported that at a military conference held in Sochi, Putin stated that,

“The ability of our economy to increase military production and services at a given time is one of the most important aspects of military security.
...
“To this end, all strategic, and simply large-scale enterprise should be ready, regardless of ownership.” (Daily Star : 23rd November 2017) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, it should come as no surprise that the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Turchynov (right), informed us that,
 
"Russia is building a strong military infrastructure along the border with Ukraine and may launch large-scale hostilities against our state at the order of Kremlin at any moment. 
...
Moreover, Putin's decision will not depend on Ukraine's actions. On the contrary, a much more important factor for launching Russia's foreign policy and military undertakings is the development of the domestic political situation in Russia," Mr. Turchynov said adding that the threat to the NATO member states is increasing rapidly as well." (UNIAN : Friday 15 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin continues with his military build-up on the Ukrainian border controlled by his Russian soldiers and proxies, as well as converting Ukrainain Crimea into a Russian military and naval base (cf: Sergey Sukhankin),

"The United States, in fact, is a full-fledged participant in the [Donbas conflict] settlement process, regardless of whether it is part of the Normandy format or not," Putin said at his big annual press conference in Moscow on December 14, 2017. 

.....

"They are very deeply involved and aware of all the developments there," said the Russian president. (UNIAN : 15.12.2017) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin has now co-opted Trump as a "full-fledged" participant in his settlement of his war with Ukraine, and praised him during his marathon annual press conference,  he cannot, however, stop the tide of anti-Trump feeling that is beginning to sweep across the US.

Alabama has always been a Republican stronghold, and the recent election of a Democratic Senator by the people of Alabama singifies that Trump is beginning to see the "noose of impeachment" dangling above his head.

 

Like Trump's "noose of impeachment", Putin's "millstone" of EU-US economic sanctions that continues to hang around his neck will not be removed no matter how much he continues to stroke Trump's ego.

Neither Putin nor Trump can disentangle themselves from the scarlet thread of Maidan that continues to bind them together even more tightly. 

(to be continued)

Trump, it would seem, is taking a leaf out of Putin's past actions.

 Finally the scarlet thread of Maidan that has bound Trump and Putin tightly together since the start of the US presidential elections in 2016 has now become the pinnacle of the mountain of evidence that has been accumulated by Special Council Mueller about the Trump-Putin collusion that led Donald Trump into the White House. 

And indelibly etched into this scarlet thread is one word, "Sanctions ... Sanctions ... Sanctions"

In my blog post on 19 July, 2016, I wrote that,

Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military."

I further wrote that,

"And at last week’s Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland, Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

Manafort, who on May 19, 2016 was promoted to chairman of the Trump presidential campaign, was the primary instigator of the changes that were wrought on the amendment of Diana Denman.

Since then it has always been my contention that getting rid of the US sanctions against Putin and his cronies in the Kremlin because of Putin's illegal annexation of Crimea, and his ongoing war in the Donbas against Ukraine was, and still is, the primary reason for the collusion between Trump and Putin, and that finally got Trump into the White House.

And yesterday Rachel Maddow, of MSNBC, also concluded that getting rid of the US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' is the key to the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections, including the ongoing collusion between Trump's 'siloviki' at the White House and Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki'.

As the call for the impeachment of Trump begins to gain momentum amongst Democrats in the US Congress, it is rather interesting that Trump deflects this call for impeachment by suddenly announcing that the US now recognises Jerusalem as the capitol of Israel, an annnouncement that has caused furore all over the world.

This announcement of Trump signifies that he realises that his presidency is about to come to an end and, like a drowning man clutching at straws, he is willing to unleash a possible wave of violence across the world, just as Putin unleashed a wave of support for himself when those Moscow bombings in September 1999 killed hundreds of innocent Muscovites, and which remains unsolved.

As Scott Anderson wrote,

"It is a riddle [the Moscow bombings] that lies at the very heart of the modern Russian state, one that remains unsolved to this day. In the awful events of September 1999, did Russia find its avenging angel in Vladimir Putin, the proverbial man of action who crushed his nation's attackers and led his people out of a time of crisis? Or was that crisis actually manufactured to benefit Putin, a scheme by Russia's secret police to bring one of their own to power" (GQ : March 30, 2017) (my emphasis)

Trump,  it would seem, is taking a leaf out of Putin's past actions.

(to be continued)

Are Trump and his lawyers taking a leaf out of Putin's past?

The scarlet thread of Maidan is once more emerging as a critical factor as the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections continues to emerge into the light of day.
 

And as much as members of the Republican Party in both the US Senate and the US Congress continue to bury their heads in the sand over the Trump-Putin collusion issue, and of Trump obstructing justice, in the hope that this will protect their re-election chances during the 2018 November elections Trump, in his infinite wisdom, continues to incriminate himself.

As McDonnell of MSNBC reports in the above video, even Trump's lawyers are 'digging his impeachment grave'.

As also reported by  Jack Holmes,

"The "President cannot obstruct justice because he is the chief law enforcement officer under [the Constitution's Article II] and has every right to express his view of any case,"Dowd (left) [Trump's lawyer] claims." ( Esquire : 4 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

The ludicrousness of Trump's lawyers' statement really signifies that they are beginning to invent 'legal fictions' to mollify Trump.

But it is not only Trump who is now banging his head against a wall.

Even as Putin continues to command his Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas to increase their attacks against Ukrainian forces, serious cracks are beginning to appear between Putin's proxy security forces in the Donbas and his Russian FSB.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 21 times in the past 24 hours, with three Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action (WIA), according to the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters." (UNIAN : 5.12.2017) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"Under the pretext of searching for and termination of the so-called members of a 'Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group' in Luhansk, Russia’s FSB operatives together with representatives of the so-called 'minister of state security of the LPR' are identifying and arresting people from the entourage of the “LPR”'s former leadership. Such arrests are also carried out among representatives of the 'LPR law enforcement bodies' and the leaders of the so-called '2nd Army Corps'," he told a Kyiv briefing November 29." (UNIAN : 5.12.2017) (my emphasis)

Does this conflict also signify a growing rift between Putin's Kremlin 'siloviki' and his FSB? (cf also: UK Business Insider)

112 UA now also reports that,

"The probability of the fail[ure] of the mission of Kurt Volker, the US Special Envoy to Ukraine is pretty high. (right: Surkov and Volker)

Aleksey Chesnakov, the Director of Russia Center for Political Environment that is close to Vladislav Surkov, the affiliate of Vladimir Putin reported to TASS.

The expert commented on the contradictions between Volker and Surkov. According to Chesnakov, they lie in the conditions of the deployment of the UN peacekeepers in Donbas." (112 UA : 4 December 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin was never going to allow UN forces to patrol throughout the Russian-occupied Donbas and, even more significantly, to allow UN forces to patrol the border between Ukraine and Russia that Putin's Russian soldiers and proxy forces now control.

We therefore have to ask,

"Of what real value would a fourth round of talks between Volker and Putin-surrogate Surkov really be?"

As reported by UNIAN,

"Noting that the parties will meet next week, [Ambassador to Russia, Jon] Huntsman (left) recalled that the previous three rounds of negotiations had been unproductive. 

However, according to the U.S. envoy [Volker], the very fact that the negotiation process is underway inspires confidence. Huntsman expressed hope that the fourth round of talks would yield some progress and that the U.S. and Russia would be moving away from the lowest point in their relations. 

The two countries still need to overcome the existing contradictions to this end, Huntsman believes." (UNIAN : 05.12.2017) (my emphasis)

The fact that Trump is now simply lashing out with his tweets as evidence of the collusion between himself and Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections rather undermines anything that either Volker or Huntsman may hope for in Volker's meeting next week with Putin-surrogate Surkov.

There is also a rather interesting $64 question. 

Are Trump and his lawyers taking a leaf out of Putin's past?

(to be continued)

Is Putin the emboldened, the political opportunist, getting ready to strike with his 'gas gambit'?

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

"In other words, Putin seems to be emboldened to continue his war against Ukraine by the fact that :-

• the German political scene has handcuffed Merkel in vigorously continuing to orchestrate the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and
• Trump has not yet signed off on supplying Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles." (blog entry : 25 November 2017)

We now have Christopher Miller (left) reporting that,

"Ukrainian officials and politicians have reacted with alarm to reports that the Council of Europe is considering lifting sanctions imposed against Russia over its military intervention in Crimea out of fears that Moscow might otherwise leave the body." (RFE/RL : 27 November 2017) (my emphasis)

This alarm of Ukrainian officials and politicians stems from the fact the Secretary-General of the Council of Europe, Thorbjørn Jagland (right), is touring the capitals of the EU, warning that Moscow could withdraw or crash out of the 47-member body unless its demands are met.

“Nobody wants to give a signal that we accept the annexation of Crimea. It is not about undermining this position of principle. But . . . we have to keep in perspective: what is our mandate. Our mandate is to protect human rights in Russia and Crimea, or wherever people live on the continent.” ( Neil Buckley (right): Financial Times :November 26, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Neil Buckley further reports that,

“It would really be very, very bad if Russia was to leave . . . because the convention and court has been so important for Russian citizens,” Mr Jagland told the FT in an interview.

 “It will be a negative development for Europe, because we will have a Europe without Russia. It would be a big step back for Europe.” " (ibid Neil Buckley) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's ambassador to the Council of Europe, Dmytro Kuleba (right), argues that Putin's threats about leaving the Council of Europe are empty. (ibid Neil Buckley)

As further reported by Neil Buckley,

"Opponents of an unconditional deal with Russia say that it would set a precedent for others accused of backsliding on democracy, such as Hungary and Poland, and for Turkey and Azerbaijan, which have serious disputes with the council." (ibid Neil Buckley) (my emphasis)

Thorbjørn Jagland's arguments ring hollow when viewed against the failure of the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) in relation to Ukrainian cases submitted in 2014, the year of the Maidan revolution.

In 2014 the ECHR received a total of 14,198 applications that were allocated to a 'Judicial Formation'.( cf: The ECHR in facts & figures - 2014 - European Court of Human Rights ) 

Of these cases,

• 12,731 were declared INADMISSABLE, and only
• 1,073 received a Judicial Judgement

In other words, 89% of Ukrainian cases in 2014 were thrown out by the ECHR, cases that arose during the years when Victor Yanukovich (left) was President of Ukraine, and who fled with billions of dollars stolen from the people of Ukraine into the 'protective' arms of Putin in 2014.

What is extremely disconcerting about Thorbjørn Jagland traipsing across Europe and pushing Putin's blackmail about leaving the Council for Europe is that, as reported by Neil Buckley,

"Mr Jagland denied rumours that Moscow officials had threatened a pullout in private meetings with him.
...
“My understanding is that this may happen,” he said. “The big political question is do we want this political development." (my emphasis)

So whilst Putin has been somewhat subtle about blackmailing Trump to stop him from signing off on that $47 million grant package, that would include Javelin anti-tank missiles, with Thorbjørn Jagland, Putin has adopted an in-your-face threatening blackmail posture.

 Josh Rogin neatly sums up Putin's subtle approach in handling Trump and his 'White House siloviki'.

"After playing into Russia’s hands on Syria, the Trump administration now risks repeating the error in Ukraine, where diplomatic discussions over a Russian initiative are heating up. Moscow’s plan is to legitimize its invasion and control over parts of two eastern provinces [of Ukraine] by drawing President Trump into another bad deal." (Washington Post : November 26, 2017) (my emphasis)

As winter now begins to set in across Europe, will Putin use the 'gas gambit' to further pressure the EU to drop sanctions against himself and his Kremlin 'siloviki'?

Is Putin the emboldened, the political opportunist, getting ready to strike with his 'gas gambit'?

(to be continued)

Will Trump sign off on supplying Ukraine with anti-tank Javelin missiles?

"A week is a long time in politics". So said Harold Wilson, the late PM of Great Britain in the 1960's.

And so it is that after desperately trying to build up a coalition with some minor political parties, Angela Merkel has finally to concede that  ".. her efforts to form a three-way coalition government had failed, thrusting Germany into a political crisis and pushing Europe's largest economy closer to a possible new election." (CNBC (Reuters) : Sun, 19 Nov 2017) (my emphasis) 

Let us now also recall that in June of this year (2017), Constanze Stelzenmüller testified before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and stated that,

"...Germany remains a major power, and in some ways the fulcrum of power on the continent. For a Russia that is clearly bent on destabilizing Europe and the transatlantic alliance, Germany is the prize: Weaken Germany, and you diminish the EU and the European project and, conversely, because Germany has orchestrated the European consensus on sanctions against Russia, it [Germany] has become the main obstacle for Russia in pursuing its interests in Europe and, indeed, in Ukraine." (Brookings : Wednesday, June 28, 2017) (my emphasis)

To the delight of Putin, the turmoil in the German political scene has handcuffed Merkel in vigorously continuing to orchestrate the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' now that Germany seems to be heading towards new elections.

But Putin is not having it all his own way.

As Tara Palmeri (right) reports,

"The National Security Council decided during a meeting on Tuesday [November 14] to greenlight the presentation of a $47 million grant package to the Ukrainian government to purchase American defense arms, including the powerful Javelin anti-tank missiles." (ABC News : Nov 17, 2017) (my emphasis)

(cf also The Hill)

Which may have precipitated, as reported by Oliver Carroll that,

"Russian business should be prepared to switch to production to military needs at any time, said Vladimir Putin on Wednesday. The Russian president was speaking at a conference of military leaders in Sochi.

“The ability of our economy to increase military production and services at a given time is one of the most important aspects of military security,” Mr Putin said. “To this end, all strategic, and simply large-scale enterprise should be ready, regardless of ownership.” (The Independent : 22 November, 2017) (my emphasis)

 

Trying to prevent Trump from signing off on this $47 million grant package, that includes the purchasing of those Javelin anti-tank missiles, Putin stressed to Trump during their recent telephone conversation on Tuesday, 21st November, that the situation in Ukraine can only be solved through the full implementation of the Minsk2 agreement.

As reported by Alexander Mercouris,

"Regarding the crisis in southeast Ukraine, the President of Russia pointed to the lack of a real alternative to unconditional compliance with the Minsk agreements of February 12, 2015." (The Duran : November 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, the White House released statement about this meeting focussed primarily on Syria, with Ukraine thrown in almost as an afterthought by Trump at the end .

 Which raises the $64 question ...

"Will Trump sign off on supplying Ukraine with anti-tank Javelin missiles?"

Perhaps the hint of an answer lies in the fact that,

"The European Union on Friday blamed Russia for the deaths of at least five troops in eastern Ukraine in what appears to be the worst outburst of violence in months.

"The death of five Ukrainian servicemen yesterday [23 November 2017] is the just the latest proof of the tragic consequences of Russia's aggression in Ukraine," said EU Council President Donald Tusk (right) after a summit with six eastern European nations, including Ukraine." (Raf Casert, Associated Press ABC News : Nov 24, 2017) (my emphasis)

In other words, Putin seems to be emboldened to continue his war against Ukraine by the facts that :-

• the German political scene has handcuffed Merkel in vigorously continuing to orchestrate the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and
• Trump has not yet signed off on supplying Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles.

The 'bromance' between Trump and Putin seems to be growing stronger.  

(to be continued)

Is Trump preparing to throw Ukraine under the bus as payback to Putin?

Just over a week ago I wrote that,

"Did Putin sanction this Bloomberg interview with Veselnitskaya, that potentially puts Trump Jnr. in the crosshairs of landing in prison, to add pressure on US President Trump to get the 'sanctions monkey' off his back?" (blog entry: 7 November, 2017)

We now learn from Andrew Higgins (right) that,

"Under a $2.8 million no-bid contract awarded by the Office of Acquisitions in Washington, security guards at the American Embassy in Moscow and at consulates in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and Vladivostok will be provided by Elite Security Holdings, a company closely linked to the former top K.G.B. figure, Viktor G. Budanov, a retired general who rose through the ranks to become head of Soviet counterintelligence." (New York Times : Nov. 14, 2017) (my emphasis)

This contract was given the green light by none other than Rex Tillerson, current US Secretary of State, and recipient of 'Russia's Order of Friendship', by none other than Putin himself.

That news about this contract has emerged as Trump, during his Asian tour, has stated that Putin has been 'badly' lumbered with US sanctions against him, should not come as a surprise.

As the Mueller (right) investigation continues to add to the mountain of evidence that supports the charge of collusion in the 2016 US presidential elections between Putin and his 'siloviki', and Trump and his 'Russian-friendly' cohorts, Trump continues to try to find devious ways to get rid of those US sanctions to pay Putin back for getting him elected into the White House.

And covering Trump's back is none other than Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State!

The same Rex Tillerson who has decimated the US State Department, and shut down the US State Department Sanctions Office.

There is an urgency on the part of BOTH Trump and Tillerson to get the sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' removed ASAP as the call for Trump's impeachment gains momentum.

Meanwhile, UNIAN reports that,

"Ukrainian Foreign Minister [of Ukraine] Pavlo Klimkin (right) in his exclusive comments to MailOnline has said the Russian Federation has sent in Donbas some 500 tanks, in addition to hundreds of other heavy weapons and thousands of Russian regular troops and mercenaries." (UNIAN : 16 November 2017) (my emphasis)

Which poses yet another $64 question viz.

"Is Trump preparing to throw Ukraine under the bus as payback to Putin for getting him elected into the White House?"

(to be continued)