Is Zelensky trying to make headway for Putin in the Donbas?

In the US people are finally beginning to learn that what happened in Ukraine in 2014, and the fallout consequences thereof, has now become the very epicentre around which the impending impeachment of Trump revolves.

As described by Rachel Maddow,

"The other grounds on which Russia is being sanctioned by our government and others is their invasion of Ukraine and their ongoing war with Ukraine, and it would appear that the Trump administration has been trying to make headway on that front for Russia too." (MSNBC : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Maddow Part 1

Maddow Part 2

We now also learn that Zelensky has,

" ... provisionally agreed to hold local elections in the occupied territories of its two easternmost regions once all armed formations leave the area and control is regained over about 400 kilometers of borderland with Russia.

At a briefing in Kyiv on October 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the agreement, brokered in Minsk with Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), paves the way for peace talks with Moscow to end the war in the Donbas that is in its sixth year.

“There cannot be and will not be elections held at gunpoint,” Zelenskiy said. "There will be no capitulation." (RFERL : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis)

What is also now emerging is that there is a so-called "Steinmeier Formula" around which these elections are going to be based.

But who is this "Steinmeier" (right)?

A member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany, Steinmeier became Germany's Foreign Secretary under the first Merkel coalition government in 2005, and then AGAIN in 2013 during Merkel's second coalition government. He remained as Germany's Foreign Secretary until 2019.

In other words, Steinmeier was the Foreign Secretary of Germany when Putin, in 2014, invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and started his war in the Donbas with Ukraine shortly thereafter.

More significantly, Steinmeier held the post of Chairman of the OSCE in 2016.

And now, suddenly,

"Members of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine – Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Oct. 1 agreed to a peace process known as the “Steinmeier Formula,” green-lighting local elections in the Russian-controlled regions of Donbas." (Kyiv Post : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Is it therefore at all surprising that,

"German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (left) said the approval of the Steinmeier formula opens the doors of the summit in the Normandy format, the press service of the Foreign Ministry of Germany reports.

"I am pleased that the constructive atmosphere during the Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk has led to such much-anticipated progress today. This opens the door to the Normandy summit and other stages of implementation of the Minsk agreements", - said Maas." (112 UA : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis) 

So what has now happened to the Minsk2 proposals, which ALSO sets out the pre-conditions for the holding of elections in the Donbas?

(9) Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
(10) Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
(11) Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
(12) Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
(13) Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.

But where is this mystical "Steinmeier Formula" that has suddenly appeared out of nowhere?

According to Petro Poroshenko, former president of Ukraine,

"Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's ex-president, MP from European Solidarity faction said that the Steinmeier formula did not exist. He stated this at the Rendez-vous show on Channel 5 on September 21.

"No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone," Poroshenko said." (112 UA : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)

 
[Poroshenko] I want to tell you, this is the first time I’m telling you about the last meeting in Berlin (12 April 2019) with Putin, Merkel, the French president and your humble servant. 

Putin: When Putin said: we had Steinmeier’s formula written by Lavrov.

Poroshenko:  I say: I'm sorry, there’s a letter from two ministers of Foreign Affairs of France and Germany, where they state that this is Steinmeier’s formula. Please take a look. 

Putin: He, Putin, takes this letter, reads and says: no, it’s not at all what Lavrov wrote on the Steinmeier formula for me. 

Poroshenko: I say: sorry, but Lavrov will write nothing on it. Moreover, Steinmeier himself sits at this table and you can ask him, Mr. Putin. 

Putin: I won’t ask him, you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation," Poroshenko told. (ibid 112 UA)

Now it may be that, as a former member of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, Steinmeier would have participated in drawing up the above proposals (9) - (13)  as laid out in the Minsk2 protocols.

If so, we then have to ask ourselves,

• "Is the current president of Ukraine, Volodmyr Zelensky, fully conversant with the conditions laid out in the Minsk2 proposals regarding the holding of elections in the Donbas?

OR

• "Is president Zelensky accepting Lavrov's interpretation of those Minsk2 proposals, which Putin is now presenting to the world as the elusive "Steinmeier Formula" for elections in the Donbas?

What is rather chilling about these events is the fact that Steinmeier was present at that 12th April meeting when Putin categorically stated,

" I won’t ask him [Steinmeier], you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation,"

and yet, we now have the current German Foreign minister, Heiko Maas, giving credence to the existence of the "Steinmeier Formula", as penned by Sergei Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister of Putin.

And we now have Zelensky stating that,

"The 'Steinmeier formula' should be incorporated in a new law on special status [the law on special provisions of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions], which is not ready yet," Zelensky said. (UNIAN : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to Rachel Maddow, who is now reporting that,

"The other grounds on which Russia is being sanctioned by our government and others is their invasion of Ukraine and their ongoing war with Ukraine, and it would appear that the Trump administration has been trying to make headway on that front for Russia too" (ibid Rachel Maddow)

Is Zelensky also trying to make headway for Putin in the Donbas?

(to be continued)

Zelensky is now caught between a rock and a hard place.

As the Trump presidency unravels at lightning speed, with Ukraine at the very epicentre of Trump's impending impeachment, the words of John Bolton but a few weeks ago should now be ringing out as a clarion call to President Zelensky.

As  RFERL reported,

"U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton (right) says there is no need for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to "rush" into any course of action regarding Russia’s involvement with separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.
...
"I don't suppose that the Europeans are going to have a solution that is readily apparent," he added in reference to the so-called Normandy format of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict." (RFERL : 27 Aug 2019) (my emphasis)

The tidal wave of Trump's illegal political machinations, from the very first day he triumphantly strode into the White House, centred around the lifting of the millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck.

These sanctions were placed around Putin's neck by the EU and the US because of his illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.                                 

                                                               MSNBC : 1 Oct. 2019

What is now been revealed, moment by moment, is just how many of Trump's senior advisors and appointees have become accomplices in his illegal actions.

We now learn that Kurt Volker, the 'special' US envoy to Ukraine dealing with Ukraine's war with Putin, has resigned from his post because it was he who paved the path for Rudy Giuliani to try and dig up dirt on Joe Biden, Trump's main democratic rival in the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections.

 

Then there is the US Attorney General, William Barr (left), and the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo (right), whom we now learn were central actors in the unfolding of Trump's attempt to 'shake down'  President Zelensky to dish dirt on Joe Biden in exchange for, amongst other things, Javelin missiles to protect Ukraine from Putin's tanks in the Donbas. 

And yet, as reported by the BBC, Ukraine itself had long ago dismissed the Trump and Giuliani conspiracy about Joe Biden's corruption as nothing more than a false conspiracy.

"Speaking to BBC Kiev correspondent Jonah Fisher, Mr Lutsenko - who succeeded Mr Shokin and stood down last month - said there was no plan to open the investigation into Burisma, and that any investigation into Hunter Biden would have to start in the US.

"It is the jurisdiction of the US," he said, adding that any "possible embezzlement" at Burisma "happened two or three years before Hunter Biden became a member of the board". (BBC : 29 Sept. 2019) (my emphasis)

Indeed, Zelensky should now ask himself whether Trump's telephone tête-à-tête's with Putin, PRIOR to his own call with Trump, were not instrumental in Trump trying to 'shake him down' by threatening the withholding of US military aid for Ukraine.

If so this should, for Zelensky, shed new light on what Putin may have promised him in those calls he had with Putin.

Is it therefore any wonder that Putin does not want the transcripts of the calls between himself and Trump to be released?

Zelensky is now caught between a rock and a hard place.

(to be continued)

Zelensky's "transparency" is being tested

As that fateful telephone conversation between Zelensky and Trump on the 25th July continues to reverberate around the world, let us pause for a moment and recognize the critical role that a free press has in holding politicians of all stripes accountable for their actions.

Without the freedom  of the press in the USA none of us would be any the wiser of just how Trump saw the struggles of the people of Ukraine as a bargaining chip in his political strategy in the upcoming US 2020 presidential elections.

The world already knows about Trump's disdain for a free press.

As Julia Arciga (left) reported,

"President Trump went after the media again in a Friday tweet, claiming the press—and not just the “fake news” media—is the “enemy of the people.” (The Daily Beast : 5 April 2019) (my emphasis)

Trump, however, is not alone in regarding the press as "the enemy of the people".

Ian Bateson (right) of The Atlantic recently wrote that,

"Zelensky and his team .... have openly said they do not need journalists in their efforts to communicate with the public, opting instead for social media and slickly produced “interviews” carried out in-house." (The Atlantic : 25 September 2019) (my emphasis)

Indeed,

"Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Bohdan (left), argues that journalists—who he said are corrupt and need to “purify” themselves, in an interview with BBC News Ukrainian—are no longer necessary, and has said that a press conference with Zelensky will take place “when society demands such a press conference.” ...  His argument is essentially that journalists have no role in deciding what the people want, and provide only one microphone of many the government can choose from. (ibid Ian Bateson)

Let us recall that Andriy Bohdan,

"..... previously served as deputy minister of justice and deputy minister in charge of anti-corruption policy under Viktor Yanukovich before the former president fled to Moscow during the Maidan uprising in 2014." (DW (Deutsche Welle) : 21.05.2019) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, I shall merely now include snippets of how a free press in the US brought to light just how Trump used the suffering of the Ukrainian people as a bargaining chip against Zelensky and, more importantly, brought to light the myriad of actors that worked in cahoots with Trump to try to achieve his aim of besmirching one of his main opponents in the upcoming 2020 presidential elections in the US, Joe Biden.

MSNBC : 26 September 2019

MSNBC : 26 September 2019

MSNBC : 26 September 2019

MSNBC : 26 September 2019

 Listen to the FULL Whistleblower complaint!

In the words of Mark Twain,

It's no wonder that TRUTH is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense. 

And let us remind ourselves of what Andriy Bohdan said, 

"Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Bohdan, argues that journalists—who he said are corrupt and need to “purify” themselves, in an interview with BBC News Ukrainian—are no longer necessary

..." (ibid Ian Bateson)

(to be continued)

Trump's outburst should give Zelensky serious pause for concern

"The Ukrainian revolution of 2014 (also known as the Euromaidan Revolution or Revolution of Dignity; Ukrainian: Революція гідності, Revoliutsiia hidnosti) took place in Ukraine in February 2014, when a series of violent events involving protesters, riot police, and unknown shooters in the capital, Kiev, culminated in the ousting of the elected Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych, and the overthrow of the Ukrainian Government" (Wikipedia)

This revolution in Ukraine led Putin to invade and annex Ukraine's Crimea, and to start a war with Ukraine in the Donbas, a war that has led to the loss of thousands of lives.

Zelensky gained the presidency of Ukraine but a few short months ago, and the major platform that led to his political success was his political promise to end the war with Putin and bring peace to the inhabitants of the Donbas .... peace to Ukraine.

Little did President Zelensky know that within 3 months of his election victory on 21 April, a fateful telephone conversation held on the 25 July between himself and President Trump would lead to the opening of a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump.

As reported by the BBC,

"Democrats will open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump over claims that he sought political help from Ukraine, US media reports say. 

...
Last week reports said US intelligence officials had complained to a government watchdog about Mr Trump's interactions with a foreign leader, who was later revealed to be the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. " (BBC : 24 September, 2019) (my emphasis)

It has since transpired that Trump was using the releasing of US military aid for Ukraine as a quid pro quo to bribe Zelensky to trawl for 'political' dirt against Joe Biden, the current front runner of his democratic opponents in the 2020 US presidential elections.

 MSNBC : 25 September 2019

As early as August of this year,  Natasha Bertrand of Politico reported that,

"The Trump administration is slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine, annoying lawmakers and advocates who argue the funding is critical to keeping Russia at bay.

But the delays come amid questions over Trump’s approach to Russia, after a weekend in which the president repeatedly seemed to downplay Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and pushed for Russia to be reinstated into the Group of Seven, an annual gathering of the world’s largest advanced economies. " (Politico : 29 August 2019) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC: 25 September 2019

And in light of his impending formal impeachment, Trump is now desperately trying to shift the blame for his slow-walking of $250 million in US military aid for Ukraine onto the EU.

 BBC : 24 Sept., 2019

This outburst of Trump should give Zelensky serious pause for concern about the impending Normandy Four meeting between himself, Putin, Merkel, and Macron.

Indeed, Zelensky should now ask himself whether Trump's telephone tête-à-tête's with Putin, PRIOR to his own call with Trump, were not instrumental in Trump's current outburst about withholding US military aid for Ukraine.

If so this should, for Zelensky, shed new light on what Putin may have promised him in those calls between himself and Putin.

It is not co-incidental that, as reported by Vladimir Soldatkin (right),

"Russia is ready to take part in a four-way summit in Paris [the Normandy Format: Putin, Merkel, Macron, Zelensky] to try to breathe life into the stalled Ukrainian peace process but has strict preconditions for such a meeting, a senior Kremlin aide said on Friday." (Reuters : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

The strict preconditions that Putin has set forth for this Normandy Format meeting are :-

• The rival armed forces in eastern Ukraine should be separated on either side of the line of contact
• The wording on a special status for the Donbass region should be agreed, and
• There must be a preliminary agreement on what the summit’s conclusions should be. (ibid Soldatkin) (my emphasis)

One may indeed ask whether these preconditions of Putin were part of the telephone conversation discussions held between himself and Zelensky.

Zelensky should also bear in mind the Merkel's and Macron's hidden agendas in having this Normandy Format meeting as soon as is possible. (cf.my Blog Entry 14/09/2019)

For Zelensky, political truth is turning out to be dangerously stranger than fiction.

MSNBC : 25 September 2019

(to be continued)

Will Zelensky do Trump's bidding and pursue 'false' investigations into Joe Biden?

On the 29 August, 2019,  Natasha Bertrand of Politico reported that,

"The Trump administration is slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine, annoying lawmakers and advocates who argue the funding is critical to keeping Russia at bay.

But the delays come amid questions over Trump’s approach to Russia, after a weekend in which the president repeatedly seemed to downplay Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and pushed for Russia to be reinstated into the Group of Seven, an annual gathering of the world’s largest advanced economies. " (Politico : 29 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This was followed by  David Brennan (right), who reported on Putin's glee that Trump was withholding this critical military assistance to Ukraine.

"A senior Russian official has praised President Donald Trump's decision to delay $250 million in military funding to Ukraine, where government forces are battling a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of the country." (Newsweek : 30 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Then, on September 7th, 2019, Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Michael Peel reported that,

"Russia and Ukraine exchanged 70 prisoners on Saturday after months of intense negotiations .." (Financial Times : September 7 2019) (my emphasis)

Events were now moving fast.

Vladimir Soldatkin (below) then informed us that,

"Russia is ready to take part in a four-way summit in Paris [the Normandy Format: Putin, Merkel, Macron, Zelensky] to try to breathe life into the stalled Ukrainian peace process but has strict preconditions for such a meeting, a senior Kremlin aide said on Friday." (Reuters : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Merkel and Macron were  wasting no timein pushing hard for this Normandy Format meeting to take place as soon as possible.

And why?

"French President Emmanuel Macron has in recent weeks pushed for a review of ties with Russia, indicating that more sanctions against Moscow were not in France's interests. (CNA : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

And let us not forget Merkel and her Nord Stream2 project.

As reported by Brian Parkin and Vanessa Dezem, 

"Germany is confident that hitches threatening the Russian-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be resolved to allow completion of the project on time this year.

...

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is becoming more vocal in its support for the project after years of parrying queries over its stance toward importing more Russian gas." (Bloomberg : 12 September 2019) (my emphasis)

We now learn that,

"The [US] Vice President spoke by phone today [September 18] with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to follow up on their productive September 1 meeting in Warsaw and discussed President Trump's upcoming meeting with President Zelensky next week at the UN General Assembly in New York," according to the readout of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's phone call with Zelensky, which was posted on the White House's website on September 18." (UNIAN : 19 September, 2019) (my emphasis)

The speed with which all these events have occurred, it now transpires, may have had a catalytic effect as early as July 2019 that is now blowing up in Zelensky's face.

It has now come to light that a whistleblower working at the White House has revealed, (ON 12 AUGUST 2019)  that Trump had a call with Zelensky (ON 25 JULY 2019) in which Trump may have asked Zelensky to "gather dirt" on Joe Biden, his prime presidential opponent in the upcoming US Presidential elections in 2020, as a quid pro quo for him releasing US military aid to Ukraine.

 MSNBC : (20 September 2019)

 

As reported by Rachel Maddow (MSNBC: 19 September 2019)

 

As also reported by Stephen Collinson (left),

"The details of the controversy unleashed when a whistleblower sounded the alarm about the President are complex, disputed according to political allegiance and largely not public.

The Washington Post and The New York Times reported Thursday that the contacts at issue between Trump and the foreign leader involve Ukraine. 

In the past, some of Trump's supporters, including his lawyer Rudy Giuliani, have urged the Kiev government to open investigations that the President could use to raise suspicions about his political rivals, including Joe Biden. 

In a heated exchange with CNN's Chris Cuomo on Thursday night, Giuliani denied asking Ukraine to investigate the former vice president, before admitting he had done just that. 

 Trump spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25. There is so far no public evidence that the whistleblower's complaint pertains to this conversation.(CNN : September 20, 2019) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC (20 September 2019)

 

The critical question that we now have to ask ourselves is :-

"Was that telephone tête-à-tête between Trump and Zelensky (25th July 2019) the catalyst that precipitated :-

• the prisoner exchange between Putin and Ukraine on the 7 September, 
• the reinstatement of military aid to Ukraine, (as reported by VOA on 12 September, 2019) "President Donald Trump's administration has released $250 million in military aid for Ukraine, U.S. senators said on Thursday, after lawmakers from both parties expressed anger that the White House had held up money approved by Congress.", and
•  the sudden rush by Zelensky and Putin (cf: Vladimir Soldatkin (Reuters : 13 September 2019)) to have a Normandy Format meeting?

Is it also merely co-incidental that, as reported by Kenneth P. Vogel and Andrew E. Kramer,

"Months after backing out of a trip to Ukraine amid criticism that he was mixing partisan politics with foreign policy, Rudolph W. Giuliani (left), President Trump’s personal lawyer, has renewed his push for the Ukrainian government to pursue investigations into political opponents of Mr. Trump." (New York Times : 21 August, 2019) (my emphasis)

It is also significant that, as reported by UNIAN,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on September 25 in New York on the sidelines of the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly.
...
It is also expected that Trump during the conversation will touch on the topic of conducting an investigation against Burisma (whose board member was Hunter Biden, the son of former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden)." (UNIAN : 19 September 2019) (my emphasis)

Now that the details of that telephone tête-à-tête between Trump and Zelensky (25th July 2019) are slowly coming to light, and Trump is openly displaying his panic regarding his chances of being re-elected into the White House in 2020, how will Zelensky handle Trump's request to " pursue investigations into his political opponent, Joe Biden"? 

Zelensky cannot dodge this political bullet.

The eyes of the world are now upon him.

Will Zelensky do Trump's bidding and pursue 'false' investigations into Joe Biden? 

  

STOP PRESS! URGENT! PLEASE WATCH 

MSNBC : 21 September 2019 : Trump Cornered

 (to be continued)

Will Zelensky make unacceptable concessions to Putin?

In my blog entry of  (28 August 2019) wrote that,

"But can Zelensky either :-

• ignore Bolton's caution about 'rushing into action' when dealing with Putin about his war with Ukraine in the Donbas and his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea or
• ignore Macron's steamrollering towards a  Normandy Format meeting with Putin because of the expanding economic links between French and Russian businessmen or
• ignore Merkel steamrollering the completion of Nord Stream 2 between Germany and Putin?"

Let us also remind ourselves that,

"...Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,

• the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, 
• disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13)"

Vladimir Soldatkin (right) now informs us that,

"Russia is ready to take part in a four-way summit in Paris to try to breathe life into the stalled Ukrainian peace process but has strict preconditions for such a meeting, a senior Kremlin aide said on Friday." (Reuters : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

The strict preconditions that Putin has set fort for this Normandy Format meeting are :-

• The rival armed forces in eastern Ukraine should be separated on either side of the line of contact
• The wording on a special status for the Donbass region should be agreed, and
• There must be a preliminary agreement on what the summit’s conclusions should be. (ibid Soldatkin) (my emphasis)

Leonid Kuchma (left), Zelensky's envoy for peace talks with Russia-backed separatists in the Donbas,

"is now expressing alarm that,"... the leaders of France and Germany [Macron and Merkel] will push Ukraine to make unacceptable concessions to Russia.

...

he is concerned that France and Germany, who are mediating the talks, will push Zelenskiy to make trade-offs, such as approving a plan for the separatists to hold local elections in the areas they control without any oversight by the Ukrainian government.

"I don't have a lot of hope," Kuchma said when asked about a much-anticipated meeting of Zelenskiy with the leaders of Russia, France and Germany. "Zelenskiy will have a very hard time — it will be one against three people." (VOA News (Associated Press) : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, addressing the Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum (13 Sept. 2019), Zelensky,

• warned the West against lifting sanctions on Russia as France pushes for rapprochement with Moscow.
• said that he had a "feeling" that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ready to improve ties with Ukraine.... That feeling was based "on many things," he said. "From our (phone) calls to the political situation in the world on the whole."
• said that he would push for the return of Crimea but admitted it would be "the most complicated" issue. (CNA : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

As I wrote on 31 August,

"ALL BETS ARE NOW OFF!!"

 Zelensky statements at the YES forum seems to indicate that he is amenable to :- 

• accepting Putin's preconditions for a soon-to-be Normandy Format meeting (cf Vladimir Soldatkin above), 
•  accepting Macron and Merkel's opinion that (i) the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, (ii) disarmament of local proxy forces and (iii) restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, are merely  aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to the holding of elections in the occupied Donbas,

and all of this based on his "feeling" that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ready to improve ties with Ukraine.

  

And whilst,

"On Thursday, the European Union extended by six months sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian officials while economic penalties were extended in June."(ibid CNA),

it is also reported that,

"French President Emmanuel Macron has in recent weeks pushed for a review of ties with Russia, indicating that more sanctions against Moscow were not in France's interests. (ibid CNA)

And let us not forget Merkel and her Nord Stream2 project.

As reported by Brian Parkin and Vanessa Dezem, 

"Germany is confident that hitches threatening the Russian-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be resolved to allow completion of the project on time this year.

...

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is becoming more vocal in its support for the project after years of parrying queries over its stance toward importing more Russian gas." (Bloomberg : 12 September 2019) (my emphasis)

So will Zelensky, as Kuchma warns, make unacceptable concessions to Putin at the forthcoming Normandy Format meeting?

(to be continued)

Zelenskiy will be walking a political tightrope at the next Normandy Format meeting

Negotiations for the exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Putin has been going on for many years, long before Zelenskiy took office as the President of Ukraine.

As Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Michael Peel report,

"While talks over a prisoner swap were first initiated years ago, discussions gained momentum after Mr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine in April and vowed to initiate fresh peace talks with Moscow. Russian president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a swap would take place soon, describing it as “something of a compass [for relations with Kiev].”
" (Financial Times : September 7 2019) (my emphasis)

And yesterday,

"Russia and Ukraine exchanged 70 prisoners on Saturday after months of intense negotiations .." (ibid Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Michael Peel)

Many, including Trump, are seeing this exchange as,

"Very good news, perhaps a first giant step to peace. Congratulations to both countries!" Trump said on Twitter." (RFERL : 7 Sept. 2019) (my emphasis)

Similarly,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the prisoner exchange was a "hopeful sign."

EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini welcomed the release and called on both sides to "build on this momentum."

France said the swap showed improved trust and will on both sides to resume dialogue." (ibid RFERL)                Merkel                         Mogherini                     Macron                             

 

Let it also be noted that,

"Foreign and defence ministers from France and Russia are set to meet in Moscow on Monday, the first such meeting since 2014." (Michael Peel and Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 8 September, 2019) (my emphasis)

But amidst the euphoria over this prisoner exchange,

"Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok said after the exchange on September 7 that the Netherlands had asked Ukraine "several times and at the very highest level" not to hand Tsemakh (right) over to Russia, according to AFP. He "regretted" the decision, he added. 

Forty members of the European Parliament this week had urged Ukraine not to include him in any exchange, calling him a "key suspect." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

However,

"The Ukrainian president [Zelenskiy] said Tsemakh had been handed over after his questioning for several hours by a team from the Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team (JIT) that has already indicted four individuals for their alleged roles in the MH17 tragedy over separatist-held territory of eastern Ukraine." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis) cf also:

Let us also recall that, as David Brennan (right) reports,

"A senior Russian official has praised President Donald Trump's decision to delay $250 million in military funding to Ukraine, where government forces are battling a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of the country." (Newsweek : 30 August 2019) (my emphasis)

It now transpires that this delay of military funding to Ukraine is even more significant.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (Friday 6 Sept. 2019),

"According to the Washington Post tonight, Trump is also witholding those millions of dollars for Ukraine for another very specific purpose. Quote, "Mr. Trump has suspended the delivery of $250 million in US military aid to Ukraine, a country still fighting Russia in its eastern provinces. Some suspect that Mr Trump is again catering to Mr. Putin, who is dedicated to undermining Ukrainian democracy.

But we are reliably told that the president has a second, and more venal, agenda. He is attempting to force the new leader of Ukraine to intervene in the 2020 US presidential elections by launching an investigation into the leading presidential candidate, Joe Biden. .. Mr. Trump is not just soliciting Ukraine's help with his presidential campaign; he is using US military aid the country desperately needs in an attempt to extort it .." (MSNBC : 7 Sept., 2019) (my emphasis)

No doubt, in view of this prisoner exchange, Merkel and Macron will now be ramping up their call for a Normandy Format meeting to take place as soon as possible.

And in light of the recent prisoner exchange Ukraine's President Zelensky will, like Macron and Merkel, also be clamouring for a Normandy format meeting to try and end Putin's war with Ukraine.

But, and it is a big BUT, will Putin ever agree to relinquishing his hold over the Donbas or returning Crimea back to Ukraine?

Will Putin, in the words of Kurt Volker, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations,

"Hope it [the prisoner exchange] builds momentum for further prisoner exchanges, renewed ceasefire, and progress toward full Minsk [II] implementation," Volker said on Twitter." (7 Sept 2019) (my emphasis)


Let recall that in April of this year, just prior to Ukraine's presidential elections, Poroshenko met with Merkel and Macron.


As Vladimir Socor (right) subsequently reported,

" ...Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020).

Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that :-

• (1) the withdrawal of Russian forces,
• (2) disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• (3) restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions [as laid out in the Minsk II protocols]  to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk." (Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelenskiy will now be walking a political tightrope at the forthcoming Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Merkel, Macron, and himself.

Will he, like Merkel and Macron, also view those critical points in the Minsk II agreement (cf (1), (2), and (3) above) as mere "aspirations", to the delight of Putin?

(to be continued)