The next Normandy Four meeting will be very interesting

 Tetiana Shevchuk reports that,

"On August 28, Ukraine’s Constitutional Court declared the 2015 appointment of Artem Sytnyk as director of the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) unconstitutional. The ruling, which was immediately dismissed as “politically motivated” by NABU officials, places the anti-corruption agency in legal limbo." (Atlantic Council : 1 Sepetember 2020) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant,

"President Zelenskyy is currently believed to be under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (my emphasis)

As she also points out,

"Recent examples of landmark reformist legislation that is now potentially at risk include the spring 2020 law on the sale of agricultural land and the so-called “Anti-Kolomoiskiy” Banking Law that was passed to prevent the oligarch from regaining ownership of his nationalized bank PrivatBank.

These two pieces of legislation were requirements in order to secure a new IMF program for Ukraine." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (left: Kolomoiskiy) (my emphasis)

And in a recent and rare TV interview with Sasha Vakulina since becoming President of Ukraine, Zelensky categorically stated that,

• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me"                                
   
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July). (Euronews : 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Euronews 25 August 2020

Zelensky's optimism about ending the war between Ukraine and Russia may have something to do with the fact that Vitold Fokin (left), the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, stated that,

"Another important question is about pardon. On both sides, many crimes have been committed that should ultimately be investigated, and let the perpetrators be prosecuted. But today, in order to end the war and save the lives of soldiers and commanders, my position is to declare general pardon, hold elections, resolve the issue of the special status of certain regions, and best of all, the entire Donbas," UNIAN : 30 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Is this 'pardon strategy' going to be adopted by Zelenskiy?

And does this have anything to do with the recent call between Zelenskiy and EU President Ursula van den Leyen on the 28 August 2020?

During this call,

" ....[Zelenskiy and von den Leyen] exchanged views on the main issues of the Ukraine-EU agenda and further steps needed to strengthen the strategic partnership and deepen economic integration between Ukraine and the European Union." Ukrinform : 2 September 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Unian also reports,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky says Kyiv is making every effort to end the war in Donbas, expecting that the leaders of the Normandy Four countries (Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia) will gather for a summit after their advisors meet. The comment came during Zelensky's talks with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, (right) the president tweeted. "We very much want to maintain a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and do everything to end the war," the president stressed." (Unian : 28 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In his, ".. do everything to end the war [in the Donbas]", does Zelenskiy INCLUDE the 'pardon strategy' of Vitold Fokin?

As he stated in his recent interview with Sasha Vakulina,

"With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (ibid ) (my emphasis)

We know that Ursula von den Leyen, like German Chancellor Merkel, is fully behind the completion of Nord Stream2. A quick resolution of the war between Putin and Ukraine will enable Nord Stream2 to be completed, notwithstanding the threat of US sanctions against EU companies involved in its completion.

Let us recall that in 2019,

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 27 criticized new U.S. legislation that imposes sanctions on European companies building the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany." (RFERL : 27 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Was Nord Stream2 on Ursula von den Leyen's mind whilst having that tête-à-tête call with Zelenskiy on 28 August 2020?

Zelenskiy seems to be politically jumping around like a cat on a hot tin roof.

On the one hand he has set his sights on ending Putin's war with Ukraine within a year.

On the other hand, his internal political decisions i.e.

• being under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so

• grappling with the 'pardon strategy' as outlined by Vitold Fokin , the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group,

• having 'necessary' telephone tête-à-tête's with Putin,

leaves him open to accusations of betraying the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

And looming over the political horizon is the upcoming US presidential elections in November.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (24/8/2020),

"If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.


If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament."

The next Normandy Four meeting should be very interesting.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!

The news that Alexei Navalny, now undergoing treatment in a Berlin hospital, has been poisoned by a Novichok agent, an agent that only the government in Putin's Russia controls, has now put pressure on Merkel to punish Putin by halting the completion of  the Nord Stream2 pipeline.

What is highly disconcerting for Putin is that these calls to halt the completion of this political pipeline is coming from Merkel's own supporters.

As Madeline Chambers reports,

"Pressure mounted on German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday to reconsider the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will take gas from Russia to Germany, after she said Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with a Soviet-style nerve agent. 

Western countries have condemned the attack and many German politicians want a tough response.

“We must pursue hard politics, we must respond with the only language (Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands - that is gas sales,” Norbert Roettgen, the conservative head of Germany’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said on Thursday.

Late on Wednesday he had said completion of Nord Stream 2 “would be the maximum confirmation and encouragement for Putin to continue this kind of politics”. (Reuters :3 September 2020) (my emphasis)

We now wait to see how this political development will affect the upcoming Normandy Four meeting.

How will Zelensky negotiate the political rapids that he is heading towards?

Independence Day, instituted in 1991 and celebrated on the 24 August each year, is the main state holiday in Ukraine.

Normally this day would have been accompanied by a military parade, reminiscent of Putin's May Day military parade.

On 10 July 2019, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Facebook that the 2019 Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations will not include a military parade.

And on 30 July, Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Administration Andriy Bohdan announced that a March of Dignity (Марш гідності) will take place in replacement of the annual parade. A separate march, known as the March of Defenders (Марш захисників) was also planned to be held by Ukrainian war veterans. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 And recently, as reported by Ukrinform,

"To preserve independence, to end the war, to launch economic and geopolitical growth gaining more influence to be a global player, and to organize spectacular Independence Day celebrations in all cities of the country as we will mark the 30th anniversary of independence," Zelensky outlined the tasks for the next year in an interview with Ukraine 24 TV channel." (Ukrinform :24 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words, Zelensky is determined to achieve within the next 12 months what has not been achieved within the last 6 years.  This achievement will take place during the corona-virus pandemic now sweeping the world and, more significantly, during the eruption of the Minsk "Maidan", the Belarussian movement to get rid of Lukashenko, now sweeping across Belarus.

 DW News: Youtube : 23 August 2020

Like Yanukovich before him Lukashenko, the President of Belarus for the last 26 years, is calling upon Putin to help him against the Belarussians wishing to oust him from office.

As reported by Kareem Salem,

"Mass protests in Belarus have prompted Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (left: Lukashenko and Yanukovich) to solicit Russia’s help, giving Putin the opportunity to influence the course of events." (E-International Relations : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Does Zelensky's optimism about ending Putin's war with Ukraine against this pandemic and political backdrop stem from that tête-à-tête phone call he had with Putin just prior to the 'ceasefire' on 26 July 2020?

As reported by the South China Morning Post,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday welcomed efforts to resolve Ukraine’s conflict with Kremlin-backed separatists during a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin shortly before a ceasefire went into force on Monday." (South China Morning Post : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Was this another Zelensky "quid-pro-quo" call with a President, like the one that he had with Trump in July of 2019? Will we ever know?

Perhaps we are given a hint by the fact that,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that an agreement on a meeting in the Normandy format at the level of advisers to the heads of states has already been reached. He said this in an exclusive interview with the Ukraine 24 TV channel.

"We agreed at the end of August, the 28th. Then, I think, there should still be a meeting of the foreign ministers of the quartet and then a meeting of the leaders," Zelensky said." (112 UA TV : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky should tread cautiously in thinking that a meeting between himself, Merkel, Putin, and Macron, will be the 'silver bullet' that will allow him to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

Zelensky should be aware that, as Kareem Salem points out,

"In leading from the front, Macron needs to press Putin to compromise the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over its eastern border in exchange for guaranteed rights and protection of Russian speaking minorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. This is important for French diplomacy, considering that Paris has not been able to find broad support among its eastern European allies for a European reset in relations with Russia. (ibid Salem) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, was based upon the very reasoning that Macron is now espousing as a prelude to ending Putin's war with Ukraine.

Vox: Youtube 2 September 2014

If Zelensky should be concerned about Macron's agenda at the next Normandy Format meeting, he should be even more concerned about the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential elections.

If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.

If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament.

For Putin, a Biden win will be akin to a nuclear bomb exploding in his face.

Already he is preparing the Russian people of such a possible outcome by disseminating propaganda against Biden, even ON RUSSIAN TV!

As also reported by Martin Matishak, Bill Evanina (left), director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, stated that,

“We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘establishment,’” Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement." (Politico : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Either way, Zelensky is in for a rough political ride.

How will he negotiate these political rapids that he is heading towards?

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

In a recent interview with EuroNews, Zelensky revealed that,

• With just a few months to go, I asked him what the current situation was - and what progress has been achieved in this one year deadline?
  
  He insisted it was moving forward:
  
  "It is moving, but not as fast as I expected. But now there's a ceasefire. There will be a Normandy format meeting.
• "When it comes to Crimea, the situation is even more complicated, I think.
  
  "I will tell you honestly, I have thought a lot about it. In the Normandy format, no one wants to talk about Crimea, especially Russia. I raised this issue. But we have dedicated all the time to Donbass.
  
  "Russia does not want to talk about it and I am not afraid of saying that, we all understand it.
   
• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me….
  
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July).
  
  "We discussed the complicated issues in respecting the ceasefire.
  
  "So far, there is a result of this dialogue and we see it. It is not enough. I am not afraid of the direct dialogue with Russia’s president. I think that is the right thing to do.
  
  "If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this.
   
• I asked him if the situation in the east had priority over Crimea:
  
  "Both issues are a priority. The only thing about the situation in the east, people are dying there. So with this particular human factor, for me personally this is in first place.
  
  "But they are at the same level, because both territories are ours, they have to come back."
  
  I asked him when they would come back:
  
  "You know how they sometimes say in movies, 'You'll be the first one to find out!'”
  
• "With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (EuroNews: 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)
  
  

 I leave the reader to decide whether those tête-à-tête's that Zelensky is privately having with Putin, and that gives him such confidence that he can end Putin's war with Ukraine within the next 12 months, signifies a quid-pro-quo between himself and Putin.

No wonder he remarks in his interview,

"If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this."

(to be continued)

Like Putin, Zelensky is fearful of a Biden win in the upcoming 2020 US Presidential elections.

On July 26, RFE/RL reported that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have discussed the conflict in eastern Ukraine hours before a fresh cease-fire was due to enter into force.

Both expressed support for the truce between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists that is set to begin at midnight on July 27." "RFE/RL : 26 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Hardly had they put down their phones when,

"Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander, General Volodymyr Kravchenko (right) has said Russian-led forces have already violated the newly-agreed truce in Donbas. "The situation along the contact line is stable and under control. Unfortunately, at 00:20-00:45 Kyiv time, the enemy shelled a unit of the 36th separate marine infantry brigade, using riles, hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers, and heavy machine guns." (UNIAN : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis) (cf. also: RFE/RL  27 July 2020: "Ukraine Accuses Separatists Of Breaching New Truce "; Zoe Didili : New Europe : 29 July 2020)

This rather shatters the illusion that Putin will honestly abide by ANY ceasefire agreed between himself and Zelensky since,

" ...  While Putin continues to deny any direct Russian role in the conflict, over the past year he has repeatedly questioned Ukraine’s historical right to the Donbas and reiterated his belief that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” who have been unjustly and artificially separated by outside forces.

These dubious claims appear tailor-made to belittle Ukrainian statehood while serving to justify further Russian interference. The one thing they most certainly do not imply is an inclination towards peaceful coexistence. (Mark Temnycky (left): Atlantic Council : 3 August 2020) (my emphasis)


Mark Temnycky further reports that,

"Russian officials have recently stated that they hope to distribute up to one million passports in eastern Ukraine by the end of 2020. This will transform the occupied zone into a “passport protectorate” and create the pretext for endless future Russian interventions." (ibid Temnycky) (my emphasis)

This has to be viewed against the fact that,

•  Zelenskyy was propelled to power in spring 2019 on a populist wave that owed much to his outsider credentials and campaign trail promises to end the culture of corruption which most Ukrainians blame for the country’s woes. 
• Since winning the presidency, he has struggled to live up to this billing. Zelenskyy has repeatedly failed to act in defense of anti-corruption figures, and 
• has dismissed numerous reformers from senior government positions while appointing dubious figures with ties to discredited former administrations." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 24 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as reported only yesterday by UNIAN,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the appointment to a senior post in his Office of Oleg Tatarov, (left) a former official with the Ministry of Internal Affairs who was had been in service during the rule of Viktor Yanukovych" (UNIAN : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as  Stephanie Baker and Greg Farrell report,

"A U.S. company affiliated with the Ukrainian billionaire Igor Kolomoisky (left) that has been accused of participating in an international fraud scheme was raided by the FBI in two locations on Tuesday.

Kolomoisky is close to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In 2016, Ukraine’s previous government nationalized Privatbank and accused Kolomoisky and his co-founder of stealing billions of dollars. Kolomoisky denies the claim." (Bloomberg : 4 August 2020) (my emphasis)

VIDEO

  

It should also be noted that, as reported by Betsy Woodruff Swan (right),

"That oligarch, Igor Kolomoisky , has long been seen as allied with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Both men were important characters in the saga that led to President Donald Trump’s impeachment." (Politico : 6 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Both Kolomoisky and Zelensky now find themselves on the same side as Putin in wanting Trump to win the upcoming US Presidential election in November of this year.

As reported by Nicole Wallace,

"US Intelligence Officials confirming that Russia is actively working to denigrate Joe Biden ... " (MSNBC : 7 August 2020) (video below)

As also reported by Christoper Miller,

"Ukrainian Operatives are gearing up again to take on the Bidens. They say they have Giuliani and Republicans on their side.  (Rachel Maddow video below)
...
The Ukrainians have ties to Russia and their own checkered pasts. But some Republicans are taking them seriously, and two of the operatives plan to be in Washington soon to push their agenda" (Buzzfeed :24 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Rachel Maddow : MSNBC : 8 August 2020

Yet what is Zelensky doing about such blatant interference in a US election by a pro-Putin Ukrainian parliamentarian, Andriy Derkach (left)?

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

Why this deafening silence from Zelensky?

By ridding himself of  Ukraine's reformers that grew out of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity and replacing them with former Yanukovich apparatchniks, Zelensky is revealing his true colours.

The mask that he wore when presenting himself as a saviour to the people of Ukraine has finally slipped from his face.

Like Putin, Zelensky is fearful of a Biden win in the upcoming 2020 US Presidential elections.

STOP PRESS!! 9 August 2020

It is ironic that yesterday (8 August 2020) Zelensky suddenly announces that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that it was a matter of Ukraine's national security to stay out of U.S. internal politics, particularly its election.

"Never, under any circumstances, it's acceptable to meddle in another country's sovereign elections," Zelenskiy wrote.

Zelenskiy appealed to Ukrainian politicians to avoid any actions that could be linked to U.S. elections, nor allow themselves to try to solve any of their personal, political or business problems that way.

"Ukraine's reputation is worth much more than the reputation of any of our politicians," the president said." (Natalia Zinets : MSN : 8 August 2020) (my emphasis)

What has suddenly prompted Zelensky to make this announcement???

Why was this announcement NOT made when it has been PUBLIC knowledge for MONTHS that
Andriy Derkach and his Ukrainian cohorts (below)  have been working hand-in-hand with Rudy Giuliani and US Senators Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley (right) to spread dis-information about Joe Biden? (Rachel Maddow)

Is Zelensky beginning to run scared?

(to be continued)

Are the Minsk II protocols heading for the political dustbin?

As reported by UNIAN,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 15.
...
"The focus of the discussion was on the implementation of the Minsk agreements on the peaceful resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN: 15 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Zelensky's Deputy Prime Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov
(right), is of the opinion that,

" .... the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

This seems to support Putin, who is now arguing that,

"Ukraine's counterproductive attempts to distort the content of the Minsk agreements." In addition, the press service said that the interlocutors also agreed on the "lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements." (idbid UNIAN) (my emphasis)


Interestingly, Angela Merkel has not publicly divulged either the truth or falsity on this aggreement between herself and Putin that there is a 'lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements'
 

Maybe the current diplomatic pronouncements of German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (left) gives us a clue as to whether Merkel, like Putin, is rather fed up with the constraints that the Minsk II protocols is putting on German-Russian economic relations.

According to Maas,

"...... there is "minimal consensus" within the European Union on the policy vis-à-vis Russia; it includes, among other things, the regular extension of sanctions .."


"I believe that we need more. Therefore, we want to prepare for the time when we could again talk more intensively about strategic relations with Russia. I think this requires preparations. Therefore, this is a topic that we will deal with as part of our presidency of the Council of the EU," [Maas] said. (UNIAN : 14 July 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words Germany, who now not only holds the office of the President of the Council of the EU for 6 months, but also the strategic office the President of the European Commission, now has the ability to steer the EU towards the ending of EU sanctions against Putin for his illegal occupation, and annexation, of Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

The current Corona virus pandemic, and its devastating effect on the economies of all the countries of the EU, is now also emerging as a raison d'être for revisiting the "regular extensions" of EU economic sanctions against Putin.   

the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/minsk-agreements-merkel-holds-phone-conversation-with-putin-11076293.html

This is best illustrated by French President Macron (right) claiming that,

"... the Brussels project is at stake when his colleagues discuss the next long-term budget and coronavirus recovery fund.
...
Ahead of the European Council summit in Brussels, Mr Macron said: “It’s an ambitious moment for Europe, we are living a crisis without precedents in the health, social and economic areas, which requires more solidarity and ambition. France and Germany have come up with an agreement. It was the base of the Commission’s proposal for the reactivation plan." (Joe Barnes : Express : 17 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Express : 17 July 2020

Which brings us to Nord Stream 2.

This economic lifeline of Putin has been fervently pushed by both Putin and Merkel as a purely economic relationship, with Merkel refusing to acknowledge that Nord Stream 2 is, in fact, an economic and political strategy of Putin to cripple the economy of Ukraine.

Nearing the completion of this economic and political pipeline of Putin and Merkel the US, however, is throwing a 'spanner in the works'.

As reported by UNIAN,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (left) says the U.S. Department of State is preparing to impose sanctions against companies investing in the Nord Stream 2 energy project.
...
 "The Department of State is issuing updated public guidance for section 232 of CAATSA, the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, in order to expand implementation of the act. 
...
 "This action puts investments or other activities that are related to these Russian energy export pipelines at risk of U.S. sanctions. It's a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting Russia's malign influence projects will not be tolerated. Get out now, or risk the consequences," he said. (UNIAN : 15 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin cannot rely on his Manchurian Candidate, Donald Trump, to try and stymie the implementation of Pompeo's expanded sanctions against "companies aiding and abetting Russia's malign influence projects ...".

Which makes it even more urgent for Merkel to advance the ending of  the EU sanctions against Putin and his siloviki, that was brought about by Putin's illegal occupation of Crimea and his ongoing war with Uraine.

It is therefore no wonder that Merkel is rather 'coy' in making public whether or not she recently agreed with Putin "that there is a lack of alternatives to the Minsk protocols".

That Zelensky, through his mouthpiece, the Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, also believes that,

"... the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed",

fits in neatly with the upcoming Normandy Format Meeting strategy of Putin and Merkel.

Yet yesterday, before Ukraine's parliament, Zelensky stated that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine must have all Russia-occupied territories back.
.....
"Yes. We lost part of the territory. We lost our people. And, unfortunately, we cannot bring back the dead. But we must return all our territories. Restore faith in truth and justice. So that what our heroes died for never turns out to be useless," Zelensky said." (UNIAN : 16 July 2020) (my emphasis)

But the critical question that Zelensky needs to answer is :-

"Will the Minsk II proposals be rejected for a Putin 'face-saving' formula that will maintain Putin's political hold over the occupied Donbas and Crimea?"

(to be continued)

Is TV Zelensky about to fall off his political tightrope act?

In my last blog entry (26 June 2020) I wrote that,

"A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea." (blog entry)

We now learn, as Dylan Malyasov (right) reports, that,

"Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar (left) said that Ukraine needs to be mentally prepared for the fact that Russia will not stop using its armed forces for political and economic objectives.
...
“A significant number of military experts and analysts share the opinion about the possibility of a military offensive. NATO also understands how real it is to use Russia’s military potential against Ukraine, and its activation is possible in the near future."
...
 Some experts said that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south. This is stated by American and Ukrainian experts, as well as leaders of neighboring countries warn the Ukrainian authorities about such a scenario" (Defence Blog : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin dangerously ramps up his preparedness for a new attack on Ukraine, Laura Sanicola (right) reports that,

"Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases would hurt demand while supply could rise with a potential resurgence of Libyan oil production, which has slowed to a trickle since the start of the year." (Reuters : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"Libya is trying to resume exports, which have been almost entirely blocked since January due to civil war. The state’s oil company hopes talks will end a blockade by eastern-based forces.

“If we do finally see a resumption in Libyan output, this would make the job of OPEC+ a little bit more difficult,” said Dutch bank ING. " (ibid Laura Sanicola)

This uncertainty about the price of oil only serves to increase the determination of Putin to "blitzkrieg-like" strike at Ukraine. 

Unperturbed by the growing dangerous mind-set of Putin to possibly invade the south of Ukraine, Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert report that,

"The European Commission is preparing measures to protect the European Union as it faces threatened U.S. sanctions, which could break international law, on a link to carry gas directly from Russia to Germany, the EU’s foreign policy chief, [Joseph Borrel (right)], said." (Reuters : 29 June 2020) (my emphasis) 

Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert further report that,

"The U.S. sanctions threat has prompted the German parliament’s economic committee to hold a hearing on July 1 and German business lobbies have called for rescue funds for companies affected.
Timm Kehler, head of gas lobby Zukunft Erdgas, in a statement to the committee published before the event, said such a precedent of “extra-territorial sanctions” must be avoided." (ibid Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert) (my emphasis)

German business, it would seem, is hell-bent on running after Putin's roubles, even if it means filling Putin's coffers that are been depleted as the price of oil continues to decline and the corona virus continues its inexorable and devastating march across Russia.     

It would seem that German politicians and businessmen have rather conveniently forgotten the post WW1 "Treaty of Rapallo (1922)" when Germany and Russia agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". .(Wikipedia), not to mention the Hitler-Stalin pact during WW2.

That Putin has a growing dangerous mindset is best exemplified by the current furore in the US concerning Putin's paying of Taliban supporters to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan.

As reported by Geoff Earle,

"In another brazen attack on the U.S., a Russian military intelligence unit has secretly paid bounties to Taliban-linked fighters to kill U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, according to a bombshell New York Times report.

The report represents a deadly escalation in Moscow's repeated efforts to undermine U.S. policy, and came as the administration was seeking to find ways to extract itself from the decades-long war by making peace with the Taliban." (Daily Mail : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC [1 : 30 June 2020] [2 : 30 June 2020] [3 : 30 June 2020]

Zelensky should pay particular attention to this 'deadly escalation of Putin's efforts to undermine U.S. policy' when viewed against

"[s]ome experts [saying] that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south." (ibid Dylan Malyasov)

 Recall an interview by Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth (left) with Zelensky in March of this year, where he stated that,

"Interviewer: What’s the difference between playing a
 president on screen and being one in real life?

Zelensky:   “It’s very similar,” he says, his compact frame engulfed by a green leather armchair in his opulent presidential office ..... [“Previous inhabitants felt very at home in these surroundings, I guess,” he says; they make him feel “horribly uncomfortable”. The most recent renovations were done by president Viktor Yanukovych, whose obscene corruption and cosying up to Russia prompted the 2014 Maidan revolution.]

 “It’s true there are more problems. They are catastrophic. They appear, I’m sorry to say, like pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.” 

The 42-year-old speaks in his native Russian, his expressive face switching from boyish amusement to tortured concern in a flash." (The Guardian : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Just over a year ago (April 2019) Zelensky scored a landslide victory (more than 73%) against Petro Poroshenko.

A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology reveals that his approval rating has slid to 38%, whilst those dissatisfied with his work has risen to 45%. (UNIAN : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Is Zelensky about to fall off the dangerous political tightrope he now tries to negotiate that he thought would be as easy to romp along as when he was 'play-acting' a president on TV?

(to be continued)

Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

History tells us that Stalin was once supposed to have said that,

"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do." (Brainyquote)

 UNIAN now reports that,

"More than two dozen crew of the Russian Black Sea naval fleet's Project 22160 large patrol ship Vasily Bykov who voted against the constitutional amendments that would reset the count of Vladimir Putin's presidential terms say their commanders threaten to have them dismissed from service if they don't change their vote." (UNIAN : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

                           ( USNews : 22 June 2020)

And whilst Putin, in the embrace of the Russian Orthodox Church, silently knows that he will win this vote, Gabriela Baczynska and Francesco Guarascio report that,

"European Union leaders agreed on Friday to extend until the end of January next year their economic sanctions against Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the turmoil in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : 19 June 2020) (my emphasis)
 
And as reported by John Walcott, this EU sanctions extension has been followed by :

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments about the legitimacy of Russia’s borders in a documentary broadcast on Russian television have rattled some U.S. allies, fearful that he might be laying the groundwork for a further military incursion into Ukraine.
• Putin’s renewed defense of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea – .... In the documentary, Putin said, “Crimea has always been ours. Even from the judicial point-of-view.”
• The immediate focus of concern now, officials on both sides of the Atlantic said, is the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops and Ukrainian forces backed by NATO are locked in an uneasy ceasefire. (Time : 23 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin is now also intensifying his jamming of  Ukrainian Radio Stations that normally would have been received by listeners in Ukraine's Crimea. (UNIAN : 23 June 2020)

This threatening shot across the Ukrainian military/political bows by Putin could herald a pre-emptive military strike as Ukraine receives Javelin anti-tank missiles from the US.

As reported by UNIAN,

""On June 16, as part of a pilot project under the U.S. Government's 'International Military Sales' program, Ukraine received the first batch of cargo under the contract signed in December 2019, namely missiles for Javelin anti-tank missile systems and additional equipment totaling over US$27 million," the report reads. FGM-148E missiles which are one of the latest versions of Javelin system's anti-tank missiles were delivered for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 24 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 

At the same time, as reported by The Canadian Press,

"The Canadian Armed Forces is deploying military trainers back to Ukraine as it looks to restart some of the many missions and exercises temporarily suspended or scaled back because of COVID-19.
...
"These personnel will deploy in June 2020, and observe a 14-day isolation period on arrival in Ukraine. On completion of this isolation period, they will be prepared to resume their mission of supporting the Security Forces of Ukraine." (CTVNews : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And on the political front, as reported by Roland Oliphant,

"The president of Ukraine has asked that his country be left out of November’s  US presidential election after a Ukrainian MP published tapes apparently intended to embarrass Joe Biden. 

Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied involvement in last month's leak of conversations between Mr Biden and Petro Poroshenko, his predecessor, and told the Telegraph he did not want the scandal to undermine Ukraine’s strategic alliance with the United States.  (The Telegraph: 1 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky may wish for Ukraine to be left out of the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections.

However, Ukraine's involvement in the 2020 US presidential elections, like the Corona virus, cannot simply be wished away by Zelensky when Trump, currently fighting for his political life, will go to any lengths to discredit Joe Biden, his opponent in the 2020 US presidential elections, and dragging Biden's name through the Ukrainian mud is at the top of his re-election efforts.

MSNBC : 26 June 2020

 
Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea.

(to be continued)