Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

The Houston Chronicle reports that,

 "Russia's state-controlled natural gas company Gazprom has moved to finish construction of the multibillion Baltic Sea pipeline with its own resources after a Swiss company doing the building work at sea opted out of the project a year ago under the threat of U.S. sanctions.

Gazprom had to send the Akademik Cherskiy on a long voyage from the port of Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast to the Baltics. The vessel has been moving between various Baltic ports since May as the Nord Stream 2 construction plans were thrown into uncertainty by the sanctions threat." (Houston Chronicle :  5 December 2020 ) (my emphasis)

As pointed out by Jonathan Tirone and Brian Parkin,

"The European Union’s largest infrastructure project was supposed to give one of Germany’s poorer regions a path to the modern economy. But geopolitics intervened, with U.S. Congress passing a law that sanctions German companies involved in the Russian gas link. That transatlantic wedge is now threatening to splinter, with potentially costly outcomes to businesses." (World Oil : 11 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Tirone and Parkin further pint out that,

"[Incoming US President] Biden has cautioned against the project in the past. At the Munich Security Conference in 2015, he said the U.S. needs to “ensure that no country — not Russia or any other nation — can use energy as weapon of coercion.” (ibid Tirone and Parkin) (my emphasis)

The increasing urgency on the part of Putin and Merkel to ensure that the Nord Stream2 pipeline is completed stems, in part, from BOTH of these politicians moving fast into the twilight of their political careers.

Putin because of ill-health (Cape Talk 20 November 2020), and Merkel because of retirement (William Nehra: Iamexpat:26 Nov 2020).

 

Putin's accelerating urgency to have Nord Stream2 finally commissioned and up-and-running may also be due to the fact that:-

• [The] U.S. Senate approved 2021 NDAA with military aid to Ukraine, [and] sanctions against Nord Stream 2 ..... The bill authorizes US$250 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, including US$75 million for lethal assistance. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
  
• The World Bank's Board of Executive Directors has approved a loan to Ukraine in the amount of US$300 million for the Second Additional Financing for COVID-19 Response under the Social Safety Nets Modernization Project. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
• [The] leaders of European Union member states have decided to extend the economic sanctions against Russia in the banking, financial and energy sectors for another six months. (UNIAN : 10 December 2020) (my emphasis) 

It is interesting to note that former President of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, who now leads the Ukrainian delegation in the Minsk Peace Talks, is now calling for a tougher stance against Putin by suggesting that "Kyiv may demand new sanctions against Russia — including restrictions related to the “international payment system [SWIFT],” (Kyiv Post: 6 December 2020) (my emphasis)

As also, as reported previously by UNIAN,

" ....  Kravchuk fundamentally demands that the Russian side, as a member of the TCG [Tri-lateral Contact Group], take on political responsibility and formally determine its position by the end of this year on the need to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in 2019.

    "Holding a new summit in the Normandy format by the end of this year, which would summarize the attempts to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in December 2019, as well as discussing plans for their further implementation is what the Ukrainian delegation proposes under the current circumstances," it said. (UNIAN :November 26 2020) (my emphasis)

Time is fast running out for Putin, as evidenced by,

"Russia’s legislature [proposing] a draft law that could provide Russian ex-presidents [read: Putin] immunity from criminal prosecution in their lifetimes, not merely while in office.." 

As now reported by The Moscow Times,

Russian Parliament

"Lawmakers in Russia’s lower house of parliament have voted to approve legislation that would give former presidents lifetime immunity from prosecution. " (Moscow Times : 9 December 2020) (my emphasis)

The speed with which this approval has occurred rather belies Dmitri Peskov's constant denial that Putin is, indeed, seriously ill. (cf: Express : 21 November 2020)

Zelensky may now feel that he is in a comfortable political position in relation to Putin.

Added to which, US President elect Joe Biden has appointed a pro-Ukraine Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. (right)

Putin, however, will not easily give up on his position regarding his demands for the Donbas nor, more significantly, ever relinquishing his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

Even with the political tide beginning to flow in his direction Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

(to be continued)

Zelensky wants to have a telephone tête-à-tête with Putin???

It's all over bar the shouting. Joe Biden, the nemesis of Putin and friend of Ukraine, has been formally acknowledged as the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.

Putin's Siamese twin, Donald Trump, continues to shake his tiny fists at the US electorate who voted for Joe Biden.

As reported by the BBC,

"Donald Trump has accepted a formal US transition should begin for President-elect Joe Biden to take office." (BBC : 24 November 2020) (my emphasis) 

MSNBC : 24 November 2020

 For Zelensky, Biden's win will now spur him on to act decisively in dealing with the corruption within the Constitutional Court which has abolished some anti-corruption laws to protect corrupt officials in Uraine's government.

As reported by RFERL,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Constitutional Court have clashed over a ruling to abolish some anti-corruption laws, as hundreds of protesters gathered in the streets of Kyiv over the decision.
...
In its ruling, the court said the punishment for false information on an official's asset declaration, as envisioned by the laws, was too harsh.

But Zelenskiy said the move could jeopardize vital international economic aid and called for lawmakers to dissolve the Constitutional Court because its decisions were "worthless." (RFERL : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

As now reported by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NACBU),

"The NABU Director [Artem Sytnyk] (left) spoke about the negative impact of the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine on the activities of the Bureau and the risks that a decision of the CCU regarding the High Anti-Corruption Court may have.
.....
Commenting on the decision of the Constitutional Court, Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, the Member of the Parliament, emphasized the importance of renewing responsibility for submitting false data to declarations and stopping the blocking of anti-corruption actions using the judiciary. “If this is not done till the end of the year, we will receive serious consequences: indulgence for undeclared income and serious complications of communication with European partners,” the Yaroslav Yurchyshyn said." (NACBU : 20 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as an added impetus for Zelensky to act decisively in boldly confronting Putin, UNIAN reports that,

"The latest meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas settlement was the toughest one, says Serhiy Harmash, one of Ukraine's delegates to the Group. "They even got the ever so patient, diplomatic [Leonid] Kravchuk (right) mad!" Harmash noted.

He noted that the representatives of the occupied areas of Donbas (ORDLO) are not members of the TCG, and therefore it is impossible to consider at the Minsk negotiations any proposals they submit, including  [t]heir so-called settlement plan." (UNIAN : 26 November 2020) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that,

"Head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on Donbas Leonid Kravchuk has called on the Russian Federation to politically take charge of the fulfillment of the agreements reached by the Normandy Four leaders (Ukraine, Germany, France, Russia) at the Paris summit in December 2019." (UNIAN : 26 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Perhaps signs of Zelensky's state of panic lies in the fact that he  now     wishes to have a telephone  tête-à-tête with Putin.

Unfortunately for him, notwithstanding that "Putin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov says the telephone conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin, "can be easily coordinated if necessary."(UNIAN: 25 November 2020), Putin himself seems somewhat reluctant to confirm that such telephone conversations will take place.

Zelensky's belief that he can, somehow, reason with Putin, is his political Achilles heel. 

Like Trump, when confronted with failure, Putin lashes out and blames others for his failures. 

As reported by Daria Litvinova (right),

• Russia’s health care system, vast yet underfunded, has been under significant strains in recent weeks, as the pandemic surges again and daily infections and virus death regularly break records.

• A partial six-week coronavirus lockdown in March only added to long-brewing public frustrations over Russia's already weakened economy. 

• Soon after that, Putin delegated the powers to impose virus-related restrictions to regional governors. Critics saw the move as an effort to inoculate himself from any more fallout over the pandemic." (Chron : 22 November 2020) (my emphasis)

And Zelensky wants to have a telephone  tête-à-tête with Putin???

 

(to be continued)

Zelensky is treading a dangerous path

As many American citizens heave a great sigh of relief that the nightmare of Trump's presidency is finally over Putin, on the other hand, is ensuring that when he finally steps down he will be totally immune from any form of prosecution for any of the criminal deeds that he perpetrated during his presidency. 

 As reported by Mary Ilyushina (left),

"Russian lawmakers submitted a draft bill that could grant former presidents lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution beyond their terms of office, state-run news agency TASS reported Thursday.
Such a bill would give current President Vladimir Putin protection from prosecution if and when he decides to leave office." (CNN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

She further reports that,

"The latest legislation comes a week after Putin submitted another bill under his constitutional reforms giving ex-presidents a lifetime seat in the upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council." (ibid Mary Ilyushina) (my emphasis)

The rush in Putin's Russia to have this legislation approved may, just may, have something to do with the reporting that,

"Moscow sources close to Mr Putin have claimed the 68-year-old leader has begun developing symptoms of Parkinson’s, which affects the brain and can cause shaking and stiffness. Observers noted that Mr Putin is beginning to show signs of weakness in his hands, struggling to hold pens, as well as constantly twitching his leg. " (Dylan Donnelly (right): Express : 7 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Could it be that Biden's success in beating Trump, and the possibility that Putin has Parkinson's disease, may have been factored into Zelensky's announcement that,

"A video conference will be held next week of the advisors to the leaders of the Normandy Four states – Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Friday."? (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,that elections could be held in the Spring of 2021 in the Donbas?

As reported by UNIAN,

"In Zelensky's opinion, if the Action Plan for Donbas De-occupation is implemented step-by-step, elections can be held in Donbas as early as the next spring." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

As UNIAN points out, the main points of Zelensky's Plan for Donbas De-occupation includes :-

• Withdrawal of foreign troops, illegal armed groups, and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine in early 2021;
• Cancellation by Russian authorities of a number of decisions and acts that directly meddle in the affairs of the certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, for example, on a simplified procedure for granting Russian citizenship to local residents;
• Restoring control over the corresponding section of the Russian-Ukrainian state border with the help of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission;
• A four-fold increase in the number of OSCE SMM representatives (by 1,500); and
  

    Only if the first four conditions are met –elections in the territories that are now temporarily occupied by Russian-controlled forces shall be prepared and conducted. (UNIAN : 5 November 2020)

The main points of Zelensky's "Action Plan" differ significantly from the First Four points in the  Minsk II proposals which state that :-l

• Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfillment 
• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems: for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact; for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
• The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
• Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.

When compared to the MinskII proposals, it is interesting to note that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is much less specific.

Indeed, Zelensky's "Action Plan" is nothing short of the relegation of the Minsk II proposals to the dustbin of history. 

Furthermore, it allows for Putin to drive a legal juggernaut of interpretation through phrases such as "directly meddle".

Even more disconcerting, as Maria Kucherenko (left) points out,

"When comparing the plan presented by Russia on behalf of the militants and the plan presented by the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the TCG and his deputy, we will see that these two projects are irreconcilable.  

But there is one serious reservation here: earlier, Russian proxies publicly indicated that the occupied areas of Donbas were preparing for local elections, which could be conducted in March. And it is important to make sure that this single coincidence and the will to comply with the deadline set by the Ukrainian delegation doesn't win over common sense or make us turn a blind eye to security issues." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Is it a coincidence that Putin's proxies in the Donbas are preparing for elections during the same time that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is also proposing that elections in the Donbas be held?

Once again we have to ask ourselves,

 "Exactly whose side is Zelensky on?" 

(to be continued)

Can Zelensky redeem himself in the eyes of the Ukrainian people?

Today is the day before the critical US Presidential elections. That Putin is desperately trying to ensure a Trump victory is evidenced by the disturbing fact that,

 "Russian hackers are targeting hundreds of US hospitals and healthcare providers just as the coronavirus is making a comeback and the US presidential election is in its final stretch, officials from three government agencies and the private sector are warning.

The hackers typically use the TrickBot network of infected computers to penetrate the organizations and after further burrowing into their networks deploy Ryuk, a particularly aggressive piece of ransomware, a joint advisory published by the FBI, Health and Human Services, and the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security agency said." (Dan Goodin  (left): Ars Technica: 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

 The question that needs to be asked is,

"Is it beyond the near absolute power of Putin to unleash his FSB and other agencies to stop this heinous crime being perpetrated by Russian hackers against US hospitals?

At nearly the same time as Putin's hackers were targeting US hospitals, RFERL reports that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Constitutional Court have clashed over a ruling to abolish some anti-corruption laws, as hundreds of protesters gathered in the streets of Kyiv over the decision.
...
In its ruling, the court said the punishment for false information on an official's asset declaration, as envisioned by the laws, was too harsh.

But Zelenskiy said the move could jeopardize vital international economic aid and called for lawmakers to dissolve the Constitutional Court because its decisions were "worthless." (RFERL : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

DW (29 October 2020)

 

The Chairman of Ukraine's Constitutional Court, Oleksandr Tupytsky (left), has retorted that Zelensky's dissolving of the CC,

".... has signs of a "constitutional coup," says CCU chair Oleksandr Tupytsky." (UNIAN : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This is the same Oleksandr Tupytsky who,

"Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) Oleksandr Tupytsky did not include in his assets declaration a land plot in the village of Koreiz in Russia-occupied Crimea, which he bought under Russian law in 2018." (UNIAN : 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is, however, caught in an EU legal vice.

According to the Council of Europe's European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission),

"Terminating the mandate of the judges [of the Ukrainian Constitutional Court] is in blatant breach of the Constitution and of the fundamental principle of separation of powers. Violating the Constitution, even if for an arguably good cause, cannot lead to a culture of constitutionalism and respect for the rule of law, which the fight against corruption pursues," the officials wrote." (UNIAN: 31 October 2020) (my emphasis) 

Luckily for Zelensky, the Venice Commission has also to admit that,

"There can be no effective fight against corruption without an independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law. Equally, there can be no independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law when corruption is pervasive," (ibid UNIAN 31 Oct 2020) (my emphasis)

The land deal in Putin-occupied Crimea of the Chair of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, Oleksandr Tupytsky, can be seen as nothing more nor less than an example of "corruption that is pervasive" within the Constitutional Court of Ukraine itself. 

The passing of this Bill to terminate the powers of the Constitutional Court will demand of Zelensky to replace it with new members very quickly.

The EU will be carefully watching who Zelensky will appoint to a new Constitutional Court.

And so will Putin.

And, who knows, so could a new US President Biden as Americans head for the polling booths tomorrow to elect the next US President.

Zelensky could redeem himself in the eyes of the people of Ukraine if his Constitutional Court appointees hold aloft the spirit of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

Will he be able to? 

(to be continued)

On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?

Having completed his State Visit to Britain, Zelensky is euphoric over the signing of "a comprehensive preferential free-trade agreement as well as a commitment to recognizing Ukraine's sovereignty" (Andrew McDonald: Politico: 7 Oct. 2020). 

 

This agreement includes, among others :-

•  a new sanctions regime which will come into force from the end of the year. (ibid Andrew McDonald)
•  a plan for cooperation and information exchange to counter the hybrid war waged by the Russian Federation (UNIAN:7 Ocober 2020) (my emphasis)
•  enhancing cooperation between Ukraine and the United Kingdom in the military and military-technical spheres. (UNIAN : 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)
•  an Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. (UNIAN: 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)

In an interview with Stephen Sackur of BBC's 'Hardtalk', Zelensky had difficulty in disguising how he has left all other Ukrainian oligarchs somewhat untouched whilst going after former Ukraine president, Petro Poroshenko, with a touch of venom. 

He further found strange excuses for appointing former top Yanukovich officials to critical positions in his government.  (BBC 'Hard Talk': 12 October 2020: IPlayer)

 Most significant of all, Zelensky was rather uncomfortable when asked by Stephen Sackur,

"Are you hoping that Donald Trump, who has been very negative in many ways about Ukraine ... Are you hoping that he loses and Joe Biden wins?",

Zelensky gave a tortuous 'diplomatic' answer. 

And so he should.

The chances of Biden becoming the next President of the US is, at the moment, quite high, notwithstanding the uncertainties of American politics.

A Biden win will, once more, take a rather keen look at what is happening in Ukraine. Merkel and Macron are also aware of this fact. 

In particular Merkel, whose political life is fast fading, realizes that Nord Stream2, that pet project of Putin and herself, may be in even greater jeopardy following a Biden win in the upcoming US presidential election.

And following the attempted assasination of Navalny by Putin, and Navalny's  recovery in a German hospital, many Germans themselves are clamoring for Nord Stream2 to be halted.

Even the German politician, Ursula von den Leyen (left), now EU President, cannot swing all the members of the EU behind the completion of Nord Stream2. 

 And then we have the 'strange' remarks of Zelensky during his Stephen Sackur interview that,

"We understand that today we only have the Normandy Format at our disposal. 

And we are following the direction of the Minsk peace process. So we understand that Ukraine and the Russian Federation are subjects to the Minsk process.......

We are following the Minsk process. Well, I should say that we need Minsk to be a little bit more flexible ...."

 

Zelensky may think that there should be flexibility in interpreting the Minsk2 protocols.

However, as reported by UNIAN,

"EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell (left) in a phone talk with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements.

"High Representative/Vice-President Borrell also informed Minister Lavrov of the agreement among EU Foreign Ministers to continue the current approach to EU-Russia relations, whereby the full implementation of the Minsk agreements remains key. He called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements," according to a press release following the phone talk." (UNIAN : 13 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This does not quite square with the 'flexibility' approach of Zelensky.

Which raises the critical question viz.

"On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

It is now time for Zelensky to decide exactly whose side he is on... Putin's or the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

Roman Olearchyk (left) reports that,

"Ukraine’s drive to tackle corruption, a key demand of the IMF, has been thrown into doubt after a top court ruled that the country’s main anti-graft body was set up in breach of the constitution.
....

The court gave legislators three months to change a handful of clauses in a 2014 law that established NABU. However, members of Ukraine’s oligarch-influenced parliament have strongly criticised the
body and its probes into political corruption. Anti-graft campaigners fear MPs may try to amend the legislation to take control of appointments and rein in the watchdog.
 

“There is an ongoing targeted destruction of the system of independent anti-corruption institutions in Ukraine,” Mr Poroshenko said on Thursday." (Financial Times : 17 September 2020) (my emphasis)

Vlagyiszlav Makszimov (left) also informs us that,

 "NABU has said the cases against it are politically motivated.

The bureau has recently made public a series of allegations against a ring of judges who “planned to seize state power”, with Pavlo Vovk, (right) the head of the Kyiv administrative court, at its centre.

NABU has released tape recordings that it says contain the voice of Vovk and fellow judges conspiring to influence other courts and government bodies through corrupt rulings. Vovk has denied the allegations." (Euractiv : 18 September 2020) (my emphasis)

This new case has been brought before the court by a group 50 MPs, mostly from the pro-Russian faction Opposition Platform — For Life. 

These developments in Ukraine have not gone unnoticed.

 Schengenvisainfo informs us that,

"Ukraine risks losing its visa-free regime with Schengen Area countries and 1.5 billion financial support from the EU, after its government’s decision to appoint a commission that does not meet legal criteria to select candidates for the positions of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).
......
Von Cramon-Taubadel urged Ukraine to protect its anti-corruption agencies, so the country does not lose its visa-free regime with the EU." (Schengenvisainfo : 21 September 2020) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky, however,

"...  said that the possible abolition of the visa-free regime are rumours, while he stressed that the commission would choose a professional SAPO leader." (ibid Schengenvisainfo)

Whether rumours or not, Zelensky should take note of the fact that,

“The European Union and the United States take note of the Ukrainian parliament’s decision to appoint members to the commission to choose the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor. The commission needs to embark on a transparent process with candidates’ integrity and merits at its core. Our further support will depend upon it,” the statement of the US’ Embassy reads." (ibid Schengenvisainfo)

And whilst Zelensky (with the support of 50 MPs, mostly from the pro-Russian faction Opposition Platform — For Life) upholds the decision to appoint a commission that does not meet legal criteria to select candidates for the positions of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), adding to his woes is the emerging news that Putin is behind the attempt by some Ukrainian politicians to gather dirt on Biden, Trump's nemesis candidate in the upcoming US presidential elections.
 
As reported by Dominick Mastrangelo,

"American intelligence agencies believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is behind a disinformation campaign targeting Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to a new report.

A top-secret CIA assessment concluded Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach (left) engaged in peddling "disparaging information about Biden inside the United States through lobbyists, Congress, the media and contacts with figures close to the president," two sources with knowledge of the report told The Washington Post." (The Hill :22 September 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet just a few days ago, as reported by Emily Shugerman (right),

"Faced with a U.S. Treasury Department report linking him to a Russian agent, Rudy Giuliani [Trump's current lawyer and fixer] defended himself Saturday by claiming he had no idea that Ukrainian lawmaker and conspiracy-peddler Andriy Derkach was a foreign operative." (The Daily Beast : 12 September 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC (1) (2) (3) 22-23 September 2020

Try as he might, Zelensky simply cannot disentangle himself from the scarlet thread of the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Diginity that has tightly bound together Trump and Putin since the 2016 US presidential election up to the present day, and which now binds him together with Trump and Putin.

And with the US Presidential election soon to be upon us (8 weeks'), it is now time for Zelensky to decide exactly whose side he is on ... Putin or the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

(to be continued)

The next Normandy Four meeting will be very interesting

 Tetiana Shevchuk reports that,

"On August 28, Ukraine’s Constitutional Court declared the 2015 appointment of Artem Sytnyk as director of the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) unconstitutional. The ruling, which was immediately dismissed as “politically motivated” by NABU officials, places the anti-corruption agency in legal limbo." (Atlantic Council : 1 Sepetember 2020) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant,

"President Zelenskyy is currently believed to be under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (my emphasis)

As she also points out,

"Recent examples of landmark reformist legislation that is now potentially at risk include the spring 2020 law on the sale of agricultural land and the so-called “Anti-Kolomoiskiy” Banking Law that was passed to prevent the oligarch from regaining ownership of his nationalized bank PrivatBank.

These two pieces of legislation were requirements in order to secure a new IMF program for Ukraine." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (left: Kolomoiskiy) (my emphasis)

And in a recent and rare TV interview with Sasha Vakulina since becoming President of Ukraine, Zelensky categorically stated that,

• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me"                                
   
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July). (Euronews : 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Euronews 25 August 2020

Zelensky's optimism about ending the war between Ukraine and Russia may have something to do with the fact that Vitold Fokin (left), the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, stated that,

"Another important question is about pardon. On both sides, many crimes have been committed that should ultimately be investigated, and let the perpetrators be prosecuted. But today, in order to end the war and save the lives of soldiers and commanders, my position is to declare general pardon, hold elections, resolve the issue of the special status of certain regions, and best of all, the entire Donbas," UNIAN : 30 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Is this 'pardon strategy' going to be adopted by Zelenskiy?

And does this have anything to do with the recent call between Zelenskiy and EU President Ursula van den Leyen on the 28 August 2020?

During this call,

" ....[Zelenskiy and von den Leyen] exchanged views on the main issues of the Ukraine-EU agenda and further steps needed to strengthen the strategic partnership and deepen economic integration between Ukraine and the European Union." Ukrinform : 2 September 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Unian also reports,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky says Kyiv is making every effort to end the war in Donbas, expecting that the leaders of the Normandy Four countries (Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia) will gather for a summit after their advisors meet. The comment came during Zelensky's talks with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, (right) the president tweeted. "We very much want to maintain a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and do everything to end the war," the president stressed." (Unian : 28 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In his, ".. do everything to end the war [in the Donbas]", does Zelenskiy INCLUDE the 'pardon strategy' of Vitold Fokin?

As he stated in his recent interview with Sasha Vakulina,

"With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (ibid ) (my emphasis)

We know that Ursula von den Leyen, like German Chancellor Merkel, is fully behind the completion of Nord Stream2. A quick resolution of the war between Putin and Ukraine will enable Nord Stream2 to be completed, notwithstanding the threat of US sanctions against EU companies involved in its completion.

Let us recall that in 2019,

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 27 criticized new U.S. legislation that imposes sanctions on European companies building the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany." (RFERL : 27 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Was Nord Stream2 on Ursula von den Leyen's mind whilst having that tête-à-tête call with Zelenskiy on 28 August 2020?

Zelenskiy seems to be politically jumping around like a cat on a hot tin roof.

On the one hand he has set his sights on ending Putin's war with Ukraine within a year.

On the other hand, his internal political decisions i.e.

• being under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so

• grappling with the 'pardon strategy' as outlined by Vitold Fokin , the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group,

• having 'necessary' telephone tête-à-tête's with Putin,

leaves him open to accusations of betraying the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

And looming over the political horizon is the upcoming US presidential elections in November.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (24/8/2020),

"If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.


If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament."

The next Normandy Four meeting should be very interesting.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!

The news that Alexei Navalny, now undergoing treatment in a Berlin hospital, has been poisoned by a Novichok agent, an agent that only the government in Putin's Russia controls, has now put pressure on Merkel to punish Putin by halting the completion of  the Nord Stream2 pipeline.

What is highly disconcerting for Putin is that these calls to halt the completion of this political pipeline is coming from Merkel's own supporters.

As Madeline Chambers reports,

"Pressure mounted on German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday to reconsider the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will take gas from Russia to Germany, after she said Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with a Soviet-style nerve agent. 

Western countries have condemned the attack and many German politicians want a tough response.

“We must pursue hard politics, we must respond with the only language (Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands - that is gas sales,” Norbert Roettgen, the conservative head of Germany’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said on Thursday.

Late on Wednesday he had said completion of Nord Stream 2 “would be the maximum confirmation and encouragement for Putin to continue this kind of politics”. (Reuters :3 September 2020) (my emphasis)

We now wait to see how this political development will affect the upcoming Normandy Four meeting.

How will Zelensky negotiate the political rapids that he is heading towards?

Independence Day, instituted in 1991 and celebrated on the 24 August each year, is the main state holiday in Ukraine.

Normally this day would have been accompanied by a military parade, reminiscent of Putin's May Day military parade.

On 10 July 2019, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Facebook that the 2019 Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations will not include a military parade.

And on 30 July, Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Administration Andriy Bohdan announced that a March of Dignity (Марш гідності) will take place in replacement of the annual parade. A separate march, known as the March of Defenders (Марш захисників) was also planned to be held by Ukrainian war veterans. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 And recently, as reported by Ukrinform,

"To preserve independence, to end the war, to launch economic and geopolitical growth gaining more influence to be a global player, and to organize spectacular Independence Day celebrations in all cities of the country as we will mark the 30th anniversary of independence," Zelensky outlined the tasks for the next year in an interview with Ukraine 24 TV channel." (Ukrinform :24 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words, Zelensky is determined to achieve within the next 12 months what has not been achieved within the last 6 years.  This achievement will take place during the corona-virus pandemic now sweeping the world and, more significantly, during the eruption of the Minsk "Maidan", the Belarussian movement to get rid of Lukashenko, now sweeping across Belarus.

 DW News: Youtube : 23 August 2020

Like Yanukovich before him Lukashenko, the President of Belarus for the last 26 years, is calling upon Putin to help him against the Belarussians wishing to oust him from office.

As reported by Kareem Salem,

"Mass protests in Belarus have prompted Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (left: Lukashenko and Yanukovich) to solicit Russia’s help, giving Putin the opportunity to influence the course of events." (E-International Relations : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Does Zelensky's optimism about ending Putin's war with Ukraine against this pandemic and political backdrop stem from that tête-à-tête phone call he had with Putin just prior to the 'ceasefire' on 26 July 2020?

As reported by the South China Morning Post,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday welcomed efforts to resolve Ukraine’s conflict with Kremlin-backed separatists during a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin shortly before a ceasefire went into force on Monday." (South China Morning Post : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Was this another Zelensky "quid-pro-quo" call with a President, like the one that he had with Trump in July of 2019? Will we ever know?

Perhaps we are given a hint by the fact that,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that an agreement on a meeting in the Normandy format at the level of advisers to the heads of states has already been reached. He said this in an exclusive interview with the Ukraine 24 TV channel.

"We agreed at the end of August, the 28th. Then, I think, there should still be a meeting of the foreign ministers of the quartet and then a meeting of the leaders," Zelensky said." (112 UA TV : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky should tread cautiously in thinking that a meeting between himself, Merkel, Putin, and Macron, will be the 'silver bullet' that will allow him to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

Zelensky should be aware that, as Kareem Salem points out,

"In leading from the front, Macron needs to press Putin to compromise the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over its eastern border in exchange for guaranteed rights and protection of Russian speaking minorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. This is important for French diplomacy, considering that Paris has not been able to find broad support among its eastern European allies for a European reset in relations with Russia. (ibid Salem) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, was based upon the very reasoning that Macron is now espousing as a prelude to ending Putin's war with Ukraine.

Vox: Youtube 2 September 2014

If Zelensky should be concerned about Macron's agenda at the next Normandy Format meeting, he should be even more concerned about the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential elections.

If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.

If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament.

For Putin, a Biden win will be akin to a nuclear bomb exploding in his face.

Already he is preparing the Russian people of such a possible outcome by disseminating propaganda against Biden, even ON RUSSIAN TV!

As also reported by Martin Matishak, Bill Evanina (left), director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, stated that,

“We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘establishment,’” Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement." (Politico : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Either way, Zelensky is in for a rough political ride.

How will he negotiate these political rapids that he is heading towards?

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

In a recent interview with EuroNews, Zelensky revealed that,

• With just a few months to go, I asked him what the current situation was - and what progress has been achieved in this one year deadline?
  
  He insisted it was moving forward:
  
  "It is moving, but not as fast as I expected. But now there's a ceasefire. There will be a Normandy format meeting.
• "When it comes to Crimea, the situation is even more complicated, I think.
  
  "I will tell you honestly, I have thought a lot about it. In the Normandy format, no one wants to talk about Crimea, especially Russia. I raised this issue. But we have dedicated all the time to Donbass.
  
  "Russia does not want to talk about it and I am not afraid of saying that, we all understand it.
   
• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me….
  
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July).
  
  "We discussed the complicated issues in respecting the ceasefire.
  
  "So far, there is a result of this dialogue and we see it. It is not enough. I am not afraid of the direct dialogue with Russia’s president. I think that is the right thing to do.
  
  "If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this.
   
• I asked him if the situation in the east had priority over Crimea:
  
  "Both issues are a priority. The only thing about the situation in the east, people are dying there. So with this particular human factor, for me personally this is in first place.
  
  "But they are at the same level, because both territories are ours, they have to come back."
  
  I asked him when they would come back:
  
  "You know how they sometimes say in movies, 'You'll be the first one to find out!'”
  
• "With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (EuroNews: 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)
  
  

 I leave the reader to decide whether those tête-à-tête's that Zelensky is privately having with Putin, and that gives him such confidence that he can end Putin's war with Ukraine within the next 12 months, signifies a quid-pro-quo between himself and Putin.

No wonder he remarks in his interview,

"If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this."

(to be continued)