Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

 Finally, Merkel has been hoist by her own petard over Nord Stream2.

 

A small bomb has blown up in the face of Merkel. And the 'small' bomb resides within the 2,135 page of Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU.

As David M. Herszenhorn  (left) explains,

"It was a bold, bureaucratic retort to a geopolitical provocation that would make the wonkiest, most wizened Brussels civil servant proud: After the U.S. and Germany announced a deal last week on Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 gas project, Ukraine yanked out its 2,135-page Association Agreement with the EU, and invoked two provisions to demand urgent consultations with the European Commission and the German government.
...
A partner nation with hopes of one day joining the EU finally had the chutzpah to stand up and openly demand that its rights be respected by the Commission and Germany, the biggest, most powerful EU member country, rather than being cowed into silence for fear of angering or offending its wealthy Western patrons.

.....according to Article 274 of the 2014 agreement, the EU and its member states are obliged to “consult and coordinate” with Ukraine on energy “infrastructure developments” and “shall cooperate on matters related to trade in natural gas, sustainability and security of supply." (Politico : 26 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As Herszenhorn further points out,

"[Svitlana] Zalishchuk said that in the case of Nord Stream 2, Germany appeared to be violating provisions of the EU's Third Energy Package, a legislative package governing the gas and electricity market that Ukraine adopted as its own national law.

"You cannot demand Ukraine to reform itself in accordance with these European rules and then violate these European rules," she said. "This is bizarre and in particular with Nord Stream 2." (ibid Herszenhorn)

Furthermore, as the FT Editorial Board explains,

"... the Biden administration reached an agreement with Berlin allowing completion of the Nord Stream2 gas pipeline — which poses a serious security and economic threat to Ukraine — in return for flimsy assurances and compensation for Kyiv. The “deal” — in reality, just a statement — does a grave disservice to Ukraine.
...
The agreement is flawed on all levels. Commitments to counter Russian misbehaviour are vague, the green energy fund will not cover Kyiv’s losses, and the offer of German help on extending gas transit is merely a “promise to try”. (Financial Times : 1 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Crucially, the FT Editorial Board further explains that,

"For Washington and Berlin to agree a deal crucial to Ukraine’s interests with no one from Kyiv in the room is a gift to Putin’s narrative that it is fine for big powers to decide the fate of smaller ones. Even the timing, with German elections in September, is odd. It would surely have made sense to engage with Berlin’s next government — likely to include the Greens, who oppose Nord Stream." (ibid FT Editorial Board)

But there is more.

As reported by UNIAN,

"[Putin's Russia] are preparing in advance for the probable scenario of counteracting the certification of the pipeline and the operator, as well as the commissioning of the pipeline. By reducing the supply of natural gas, Gazprom has already provoked record prices for it in the EU in early August - more than $ 500.
...
When the issue of certification and commissioning of PP-2 arises closer to winter, Gazprom will issue an ultimatum - more gas for the EU in exchange for removing all obstacles. Preliminary preparations for an open act of blackmail are already underway." (UNIAN : 3 August 2021) (my emphasis) (google translated)

And another front has opened up in the war between Putin and Ukraine.

As Roman Olearchyk and Max Seddon (left) report,

"A $3.7bn bridge across the Kerch Strait linking Crimea with mainland Russia has become a conduit for trucks ferrying water for locals to take away in plastic containers. Popular Black Sea tourist resorts can turn on their taps for just a few hours a day during peak droughts, while the canal has filled with grass and weeds.

Crimea’s agricultural output has fallen owing to a lack of irrigation, making it all but impossible to grow water-intensive crops such as rice.
...
With tensions rising, Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops and advanced weapons to Crimea this spring, as well as to the border of the two breakaway eastern regions where Moscow-backed separatists have battled government troops into an eighth year." (Financial Times : 29 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As much as US President Biden is trying to gift to Angela Merkel a fully operational Nord Stream2 before she retires into the sunset of political oblivion, this gift is not as easy to bring to fruition as they both first thought.

Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

We now await the Biden-Zelensky meeting that is scheduled to take place at the end of August.

 (to be continued)

Thanks to Biden, Zelensky and Polish Premier Mateusz Morawiecki are now caught in a German political bind.

Finally the mask of President Biden's "unconditional" support for Ukraine in its war with Putin has fallen from his face.

Putinversteher Angela Merkel, who regularly has telephone tête-à-têtes with Putin and who, incidentally, keeps him regularly stocked up with his favourite German beer, have decided among themselves that Nord Stream2 can go ahead.

A "Joint Statement of the United States and Germany on Support for Ukraine, European Energy Security, and our Climate Goals" released by the US Department of State, contains the following :

"We support the energy security of Ukraine and Central and Eastern Europe, including the key principles enshrined in the EU’s Third Energy Package of diversity and security of supply. Germany underscores that it will abide by both the letter and the spirit of the Third Energy Package with respect to Nord Stream 2 under German jurisdiction to ensure unbundling and third-party access. This includes an assessment of any risks posed by certification of the project operator to the security of energy supply of the EU." (US Department of State : 21 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As a sop to Ukraine, Merkel and US President Biden tried to soften this blow to not only Ukraine, but also to Poland, by further stating that,

"The United States and Germany are united in their belief that it is in Ukraine’s and Europe’s interest for gas transit via Ukraine to continue beyond 2024. In line with this belief, Germany commits to utilize all available leverage to facilitate an extension of up to 10 years to Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia, including appointing a special envoy to support those negotiations, to begin as soon as possible and no later than September 1. The United States commits to fully support these efforts." (ibid US Dept. of State) (my emphasis)

As Betsy Woodruff Swan, Alexander Ward and Andrew Desiderio report,

"In the midst of tense negotiations with Berlin over a controversial Russia-to-Germany pipeline, the Biden administration is asking a friendly country to stay quiet about its vociferous opposition. And Ukraine is not happy.

U.S. officials have signaled that they’ve given up on stopping the project, known as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and are now scrambling to contain the damage by striking a grand bargain with Germany." (Politico : 20 July 2021) (my emphasis) 

Amanda Macias CNBC 15 July 2021

If US President Biden's political strategy is an attempt to politically "handcuff" the new German Chancellor that will emerge during this coming September's Chancellorship election in Germany, he may be in for a rather unpleasant surprise.

Let us recall (blog entry 10/04/2018) that a former Chancellor of Germany, none other than Helmut Schmidt, once stated that,

In the newspaper Die Zeit, Helmut Schmidt  said Mr Putin’s annexation of Crimea was not quite “legitimate” but certainly “understandable”. 

Like Putin, who in March of 2017 said that,

"...  the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was purely economic and not directed against other countries, as he met the head of German chemicals group BASF, a potential partner in the project" (Reuters: March 22, 2017),

we also have Angela Merkel, the Putinversteher, arguing that,

“We think this is an economic project. We are also for energy diversification. We also want Ukraine to continue to have transit gas traffic, but we believe Nord Stream poses no danger to diversification,” she said" (Joseph Nasr & Noah Barkin : Reuters : February 16, 2018) (my emphasis)

And then we have Gerhard Schröder (left with Putin), former Chancellor of Germany (1988 - 2005) and currently Chairman of the Nord Stream2 Shareholders' Committee.

Gerhard Schröder was a strong advocate of the Nord Stream pipeline project, which now supplies Russian gas directly to Germany, thereby bypassing transit countries. (Wikipedia)

In 2017, Russia [ read: Putin] nominated Schröder to also serve as an independent director of the board of its biggest oil producer Rosneft. At the time, Rosneft was under Western sanctions over Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis. (ibid Wikipedia)

Zelensky is now caught in a  political cleft stick. 

As reported by Euronews,

"In a joint statement issued on Wednesday night, the countries' [Ukraine and Poland] two foreign ministers, Dmytro Kuleba and Zbigniew Rau (right) called the deal struck "insufficient".

"The decision to build Nord Stream 2 made in 2015 mere months after Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, created a security, credibility and political crisis in Europe," they said. "Currently, this crisis is significantly deepened by the resignation from attempts to stop the launch of the NS2 gas pipeline.

"Unfortunately, the proposals to cover the resulting security deficit cannot be considered sufficient to limit the threats created by NS2. We call on the United States and Germany to adequately address the security crisis in our region, that Russia is the only beneficiary to. Ukraine and Poland will work together with their and partners to oppose NS2 until solutions are developed." (Euronews :22 July 2021) (my emphasis)

There is, politically, very little that either Zelensky or the Polish Premier, Mateusz Morawiecki, can do.

Both are being forced to adapt to the economic and political crumbs being thrown to them by Merkel and US President Biden.

Both Merkel and US President Biden are trying to pacify Putin.

However, like Donald Trump, Putin believes in his 'fantasy' world of Ukraine being merely an extension of Russia ... Novorussia or New Russia, just as Trump believes that he won the 2020 US Presidential election.  

Both Zelensky and Mateusz Morawiecki now await, with trepidation, the outcome of the looming Chancellorship election in Germany.

Neither should hold their breath.

The Putinversteher German political establishment will always come down on the side of Putin.

(to be continued)

Putin's preparation for 'war with Ukraine' is all that he now has left in his political toolbox.

 On 18 June 2021 I wrote that,

"For Zelensky, his upcoming meeting with US President Biden in the White House must now seem like a dream come true. 

As announced by  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba,

"The date of the end of July is being discussed. The visit of the president of Ukraine to the United States. A full-fledged visit... This will be an official full-fledged visit, which envisages not only the meeting with President Biden, but also many other events," he said, adding that a large delegation will go from Kyiv to Washington, and it will have a broad agenda." (UNIAN : 12  June 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky now has the full support of the President of the US, (some?) G7 countries, and NATO, behind his political sails.

Now is NOT the time to try and bargain with Putin." (Blog Entry 18 June 2021)

And more worrying for Putin, as reported by Laura Zhou (right), is the fact that,

"Ukraine could become a “bridge to Europe” for Chinese business, Zelensky told Xi, adding that his country was keen to export more agricultural products to China.

Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s position supporting the unity of China and in return, Xi said China supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian statement." (South China Morning Post :  14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

It is therefore not surprising that, as reported by Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick,

"VLADIMIR Putin could be heading for war with Ukraine as he plots a new land grab of the disputed region of Donbass, experts have warned.

In an article published this week, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" and said he has "become convinced" that Ukraine "does not need" Donbass.

The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

 What is highly dis-concerting is that,

"Putin ally, [Mikhail Khodarenok] warns that [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

Recall that in April of this year, Putin massed thousands of combat-ready troops on the Russian-Ukraine border. Now these troops are being supplemented by more Russian troops and hardware being built up in Russian occupied Ukrainian Crimea.

South China Morning Post :  14 July 2021

As Anders Åslund (left) observes,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. In his annual call-in show on June 30, he claimed that “Ukrainians and Russians are a single people.” He then published an article aimed at justifying that “conviction,” by tracing the two countries’ shared history. It is a masterclass in disinformation – and one step short of a declaration of war." (Project Syndicate : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Another factor that may have precipitated Putin shaking his "nuclear" fist at Zelensky and at US President Biden and the EU is the fact that,

"Websites for a Russian-linked ransomware gang blamed for attacks on hundreds of businesses worldwide have gone offline.
........
Mr Biden told reporters that he had "made it very clear to him...we expect them to act" on information and also hinted the US could take direct digital retaliation on servers used for intrusions.

The timing of Tuesday's outage has sparked speculation that either the US or Russian officials may have taken action against REvil - though officials have so far declined to comment and cyber experts say sudden disappearances of groups are not necessarily uncommon." (BBC News : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

We may never know whether Putin or US President Biden is responsible for cutting off the cyber-legs of this cyber-gang.

What it does indicate is that US President Biden's making it clear to Putin that,

"Mr Biden told reporters that he had "made it very clear to him...we expect them [Putin and his siloviki] to act" on information and also hinted the US could take direct digital retaliation on servers used for intrusions. (ibid BBC News)"

seems to have had results.

Putin's arrogance in deploying cyber attacks against many countries, besides the US, may now be coming to an end as cyber retaliation from the US is now firmly on the political table. 

Added to which,

"Today, the EU and Ukraine have launched a strategic partnership on raw materials, with the aim of achieving a closer integration of raw materials and batteries value chains. Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič and Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal signed a Memorandum of Understanding underpinning the partnership during the dedicated High Level Conference." (European Commission : 13 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Which, as Anders Åslund observed,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. ...... "

underscoring the 'fantasy world about Ukraine' in which Putin still lives.

Zelensky succinctly countered Putin's 5000 word 'fantasy world about Ukraine'.

As reported by RFERL,

" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has trolled his Russian counterpart, saying he was "envious" that Vladimir Putin had enough free time on his hands to research the history of their peoples.
.........
"I am envious that the president of such a great power can permit himself to spend so much time [writing] such a volume of detailed work," Zelenskiy said.

He said that, despite Putin's mention of "brotherly" populations, Russia's actions had been anything but brotherly.

"It looks more like Cain and Abel," Zelenskiy said." (RFERL : 13 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin's political teeth is being pulled out! All that is now left in his political toolbox is 'war with Ukraine'.

(to be continued)

Zelensky's political skills being put to the test

Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have finally shown their hand by calling for inviting Putin to an EU leaders' Summit.

As reported by the Financial Times,

"Diplomats said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, wanted the EU to consider inviting the Russian president to a summit with EU leaders, and that the initiative was supported by French president Emmanuel Macron.

Ambassadors representing Berlin and Paris wrongfooted other EU capitals at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday by making the new proposals on the relationship with the Kremlin, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
........
A spokeswoman for the German government, asked whether Germany and France would push for an EU summit with Putin, said: “It is common practice for Germany and France to co-ordinate closely before EU summits and draw up proposals.” But she said she could not comment on the “content of internal decision-making processes”. (Sam Fleming, Valentina Pop, Mehreen Khan and Michael Peel in Brussels, Henry Foy in Moscow and Victor Mallet in Paris : Financial Times : 23 June 2021) (my emphasis) 

Interestingly, 

"The Franco-German initiative came shortly after Moscow said it had fired warning shots including bombs at a British warship in the Black Sea near Crimea." (ibid Financial Times) (my emphasis)         BBC News: 23 June 2021

Now recall that in my blog entry of  11 June I wrote that,

"Yet again does that infamous Treaty of Rapallo in 1922 between Germany and Russia's Lenin raise its ghostly head where, after WW1,

 

" Both governments [Lenin for Russia, and Germany's Chancellor Joseph Wirth] also agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". Secretly, both established elaborate military co-operation but publicly denied it. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to 2021 and, as reported by Ben Aris (left),

"And Merkel talked with Putin by phone in the same week, who debriefed her on his talks with Biden and waxed on the theme of unity in Europe against common foes, as it is currently the 80th anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. 

From all the EU leaders, Merkel is probably closest to Putin, as the two meet regularly. Moreover, German has ten times as many of its companies working in Russia and is Russia’s biggest European trade partner, so she also has both major commercial interests and some real leverage over the Russians. As bne IntelliNews recently reported, Russia is almost entirely reliant on imports of machine tools from Europe – predominantly German tools – which are crucial to Russia’s modernisation plans.

At the same time, Merkel is due to stand down as Chancellor this autumn and would like to see her role as moderator between Russia and the EU broadened into a more formal mechanism whereby the EU can speak with a single voice." (bne IntelliNews: 23 June 2021) (my emphasis)

Merkel's successor as head of Germany's CDU, Armin Laschet, is another "Merkel" when it comes to supporting Putin.              Deutchse Welle (DW) 18 June 2021

And why???

As Ben Aris further reports,

"The Russian-German Chamber of Commerce announced on June 23 that almost half of the 3,971 German companies that work in Russia plan to invest several billions of euros in the next 12 months, up from the 30% that said they planned to invest last year. And that investment has kept growing after German companies invested a record €3bn in 2019.  

The survey also found that the majority of German companies that work in Russia (92%) support the cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, 5% support prolongation of sanctions, and only 3% favour toughening the sanctions. Merkel has been under constant and long-term pressure from her business lobby to make peace with Russia, as it is simply too profitable a market to ignore." (ibid Ben Aris)  (my emphasis)

Zelensky, Poland, and the Baltic States have an uphill political struggle to stem the march of Merkel and Macron towards ridding the EU of its sanctions against Putin.

One should always be reminded that these sanctions were instituted because of Putin's illegal invasion, and annexation, of Ukraine's Crimea, as well as his ongoing war with Ukraine.

For Merkel, with only a few months to go before she vacates the position of Chancellor of Germany, bringing Putin back into the EU political fold is critical for her political legacy and for the German and Russian economies.

And as Merkel vacates her political prominence on the EU political stage, Macron is desperate to take over from her to bolster his chances of winning in next year's French presidential elections.

The next few months will severely test Zelensky's political skills.

(to be continued)

For Zelensky, now is NOT the time to try and bargain with Putin.

The much heralded meeting between US President Biden and Russia's Putin in Geneva has come and gone. After many years of Putin strutting around on the world stage with his threatening nuclear arsenal, Donald Trump, and Angela Merkel in his back-pocket, it has taken US President Biden to in no uncertain terms stand up to his blatant defiling of international law.

                                                              MSNBC : 17 June 2021

US President Biden has diplomatically thrown down the gauntlet to Putin, especially over Putin's tacit support for Russian cyber-criminals to attack the US, ostensibly purely for financial gain.

                                                                                        MSNBC: 16 June 2021

Following on from the Biden-Putin summit in Geneva, Sergiy Karazy and Margaryta Chornokondratenko report that,

"Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (right) said on Thursday

he welcomed U.S. President Joe Biden's tough messaging when he met President Vladimir Putin this week and said now was the time to make Russia withdraw from Ukraine.
....
"This summit demonstrated that America is back, and now it's time to make Russia pull back from Ukraine," Kuleba said in an interview, adding that Moscow has no power of veto over Ukraine's accession to NATO. (Reuters : 17 June 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky has,

" ... thanked the leaders of the G7 countries (the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, Italy, Germany, and Japan) for supporting Ukraine's independence and sovereignty.

They called on Russia to act in accordance with its international obligations, to withdraw troops and weapons from the eastern border of Ukraine and on the Crimean peninsula.

"We remain firmly of the view that Russia is a party to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, not a mediator," the G7 leaders said in a communique. (UNIAN : 14 June 2021) (my emphasis)

As also reported by UNIAN,

"U.S. financial institutions have been prohibited to buy Russian bonds issued after June 14, 2021.
...
"The following activities by a U.S. financial institution are prohibited as of June 14, 2021, except to the extent provided by law or unless licensed or otherwise authorized by the Office of Foreign Assets Control: 

• (1) participation in the primary market for ruble or non-ruble denominated bonds issued after June 14, 2021 by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation, or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation; and 
• (2) lending ruble or non-ruble denominated funds to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation, or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation," it said in its directive." (UNIAN : 14 June 2021) (my emphasis)
  

And if this were not enough to give Putin a headache, UNIAN also reports that,

"Ukraine will become a NATO member with the Membership Action Plan as an integral part of the process, leaders of the Alliance have confirmed at their summit.
... ... "We stand firm in our support for Ukraine’s right to decide its own future and foreign policy course free from outside interference.  ......  Ukraine should make full use of all instruments available under the NUC to reach its objective of implementing NATO principles and standards," NATO leaders stress. UNIAN : 14 June 2021) (my emphasis)

For Zelensky, his upcoming meeting with US President Biden in the White House must now seem like a dream come true. 

As announced by  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba,

"The date of the end of July is being discussed. The visit of the president of Ukraine to the United States. A full-fledged visit... This will be an official full-fledged visit, which envisages not only the meeting with President Biden, but also many other events," he said, adding that a large delegation will go from Kyiv to Washington, and it will have a broad agenda." (UNIAN : 12  June 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky now has the full support of the President of the US, (some?) G7 countries, and NATO, behind his political sails.

Now is NOT the time to try and bargain with Putin.

(to be continued)

Zelensky and Biden's upcoming 2021 meeting at the White House

The 2021 G7 Summit in Cornwall, UK, was set of to a promising start by UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. The core participating nations include Japan, Italy, Germany, France, Canada, the US, the UK, and the EU.

 

The missing face at this exclusive summit is, of course, that of Putin. Putin
was kicked out of this annual Summit because after his invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea, together with his ongoing war with Ukraine, in 2014.

 

Putin will, however, be meeting US President Biden in Geneva where, Biden assures us that he will be raising the issue of Putin's illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea, together with Putin's ongoing war with Ukraine.

As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday set a tough tone for his upcoming summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, accusing Washington of trying to contain Russia and citing its response to the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol as a manifestation of the West's double standards.
...
He voiced hope that the meeting will help ease tensions with Washington. Russia-U.S. ties have sunk to post-Cold War lows over Moscow's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, accusations of Russian interference in elections in the U.S. and other Western nations, and cyberattacks that U.S. officials allege had Russian origins.

Putin reiterated that Russia rejects accusations of interfering in U.S. presidential elections, and he spoke critically of the U.S. response to the Capitol attack, which took place as Congress prepared to certify that Biden had defeated then-President Donald Trump in November." (ABC Eyewitness News: Saturday, June 5, 2021) (my emphasis)

This meeting between Biden and Putin, following Biden's G7 Summit Meeting, comes in the wake of Biden,

".... [waving] some sanctions on Nord Stream 2, all but ensuring its completion, in an attempt to mend strained relations with ally Germany, which continues to support the project. " (RFERL : 7 June 2021) (my emphasis)

RFERL further reports that,

"Germany is discussing ways to compensate Ukraine for the financial loss it will suffer from the completion of a controversial Russian natural-gas pipeline backed by Berlin, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told Congress." (ibid RFERL)  (my emphasis)

Really???? 

 

 Merkel has had YEARS, since the very start of Nord Stream2, to discuss this ..... "compensation" to Ukraine for Germany's economic Jackboots stomping all over Ukraine to ensure a central role for Germany's businessmen in Putin's Russia.  

 

Yet again does that infamous Treaty of Rapallo in 1922 between Germany and Russia's Lenin raise its ghostly head where, after WW1,

 

" Both governments [Lenin for Russia, and Germany's Chancellor Joseph Wirth] also agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". Secretly, both established elaborate military co-operation but publicly denied it. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 

 

Then, of course, we have the 1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact which was,

 

" .... an August 23, 1939, agreement between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany colloquially named after Soviet foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov and German foreign minister Joachim von Ribbentrop. The treaty renounced warfare between the two countries. In addition to stipulations of non-aggression, the treaty included a secret protocol dividing several eastern European countries between the parties. (Wikipedia) 

Have either, or both, of these two pacts/Treaties been expunged from German law???

 

I will not even mention Merkel's "political pin-up", that minor German Princess, Sophie Friederike Auguste von Anhalt-Zerbst-Dornburg, who later became Catherine the Great of Russia. 

 

So whose kidding whom in 2021??? 

 

Biden has politically buckled to Merkel over Nord Stream2 in the belief that whomsoever becomes the next Chancellor of Germany in their upcoming Chancellorship elections in September 2021 will "quid pro quo" him for letting Merkel and German businessmen off the Nord Stream2 hook.

So what, now, does Zelensky do even though he has a definite date for meeting with US President Biden in the White House, a meeting that Trump danagled before his eyes before abruptly removing it.

As I stated in my last blog entry,

As the EU slowly begins to emerge from the many lockdowns precipitated by the Covid pandemic, many EU countries are now concentrating on resuscitating their economies, especially Germany and France.

Merkel simply cannot bring herself to have Nord Stream2 fail.

Macron, the banker, is also eyeing Putin's Russia as a possible economic bonanza for France as the post-Covid economic wheels slowly begin to grind into action.

Will Merkel and Macron now increase their pressure on the EU to release Putin from those EU sanctions that have kept him in check from invading Ukraine?

Zelesnsky now faces the political test of confronting Merkel and Macron." (Blog Entry 24 May 2021)

If, last month, Zelensky faced a political test against Merkel and Macron, he now faces an even more important political test between himself and US President Bide.

(to be continued)

Zelesnsky now faces the political test of confronting Merkel and Macron

Thomas Escritt reports that,

• "Bottlenecks in the supply of raw materials could cost Germany a rapid recovery from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with two-thirds of the sectors in the economy reporting supply constraints, an economic research centre found.
• According to the report by the respected German Economic Institute, reported by Handelsblatt newspaper on Wednesday, 40% of industry groups surveyed reported severe short-term supply disruption. A further third were seeing more modest disruption.
• Sectors reporting severe disruptions, to inputs ranging from microchips and wood for construction, included the car and plastics industries as well as the textile, leather and construction industries. (Reuters: 19 May 2021) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Zelensky is finally waking up to the fact that,

""We understand we will continue to follow the Normandy format. I had a video meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron with the participation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. I feel their support. I believe they should support [Ukraine] stronger. They are aware of my opinion, I'm very open with them. I believe they have recently somewhat weakened their positions in relation to Russia," Zelensky said." (UNIAN : 20 May 2021) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Zelensky's comment that Merkel, in particular, has 'weakened' her position against Putin's war with Ukraine, and his invasion and occupation of Ukraine's Crimea, 

"German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (right) spoke out against tougher sanctions against Russia amid the latest escalation in and around eastern Ukraine. It is precisely due to the current tension, he believes, that dialogue with Moscow is needed. After all, relations between Russia and Germany (and the European Union in general) have deteriorated badly, "but this shouldn't be the case." He noted that pursuing a dialogue with governments with which relations are complicated is "the essence of diplomacy." (UNIAN : April 27 2021) (my emphasis)  

No doubt Merkel is now more consumed with ensuring that Nord Stream2 is completed, especially in light of the economic impact of the Covid pandemic on German industry. 

 Added to which, 

"Fourteen Republican senators on Thursday introduced a bill that would reimpose sanctions on entities involved in the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline after the Biden administration announced it would waive them earlier this week." (Zack Budryk: The Hill: 20 May 2021) (my emphasis)

As Senator Kevin Cramer (left) stated,

"At the risk of weakening America's global standing, the Biden Administration is acquiescing to a misguided German strategy which will give Putin a grip on our allies in Europe," lead sponsor Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in a statement. "The Putin Pipeline must be stopped, and I urge my colleagues to join this effort before the Administration makes the United States learn the hard way why energy security means national security." (ibid Zack Budryk) (my emphasis)

Even the US Senate Foreign Relations Chairman, Democrat Bob Menendez (right), has stated that, 

"I urge the administration to rip off the Band-Aid, lift these waivers and move forward with the congressionally mandated sanctions,” Menendez said in a statement. “The administration has said that the pipeline is a bad idea and that it is a Russian malign influence project. I share that sentiment, but fail to see how today’s decision will advance U.S. efforts to counter Russian aggression in Europe.” (ibid Zack Budryk) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as reported by UNIAN,

""In the past day, May 23, six ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 24, 2021.

In particular, the enemy used proscribed 120mm mortars near the town of Avdiyivka, as well as 82mm mortars and hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers near the village of Novhorodske." (UNIAN : 24 May 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by UKRINFORM,

"According to a report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), on May 14, an SMM patrol spotted 17 tanks in a training area near Myrne (28km south-west of Luhansk). On May 13, a long-range UAV detected two infantry fighting vehicles (BMP variant), an armoured personnel carrier (BTR-80), a trench digger (probable TMK-2), and three armoured personnel carriers (MT-LB variant) in a compound in Kalmiuske (formerly Komsomolske, 42km south-east of Donetsk)." (UKRINFORM : 24 May 2021) (my emphasis) 

As the EU slowly begins to emerge from the many lockdowns precipitated by the Covid pandemic, many EU countries are now concentrating on resuscitating their economies, especially Germany and France.

Merkel simply cannot bring herself to have Nord Stream2 fail.

Macron, the banker, is also eyeing Putin's Russia as a possible economic bonanza for France as the post-Covid economic wheels slowly begin to grind into action.

Will Merkel and Macron now increase their pressure on the EU to release Putin from those EU sanctions that have kept him in check from invading Ukraine?

Zelesnsky now faces the political test of confronting Merkel and Macron.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should be careful not to squander his current political capital.

 Finally the members of the European Parliament are beginning to realize that cowering before the dangerous and ruthless actions of Putin's military actions on the border of Ukraine, and in Ukraine's Crimea, has to come to an end.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The European Parliament on Thursday, April 29, adopted a tough resolution targeting Russia laying down harsh sanction measures in case Russian troops invade Ukraine.

The Resolution also addresses the case of opposition's Alexei Navalny and ammo depot explosions in the Czech Republic, Deutsche Welle reported.

EP says it remains highly concerned by the large Russian military build-up at the border with Ukraine and in the illegally occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which the Russian Ministry of Defense declared to have come to an end." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021) (my emphasis) 

Included in the adopted resolution are:

• .. "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."
• MEPs have also warned Russia of the "severe price" of an actual invasion of Ukraine, the move that would be in gross violation of international law.
• In such circumstances, "imports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU be immediately stopped, while Russia should be excluded from the SWIFT payment system, and all assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families in the EU need to be frozen and their visas cancelled."
• MEPS have called to adopt an EU anti-corruption sanctions regime in order to complement the current EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime.
• The EP has demanded that the EU "should reduce its dependence on Russian energy", and urged the EU and member states to stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and to demand a stop to the construction of controversial nuclear power plants built by Rosatom. (ibid UNIAN 29/4/2021)
  

 Unlike previous EU resolutions targeting Putin's war with Ukraine, this resolution critically includes

•  The Resolution stresses that "friendly countries should step up their military support to Ukraine and their provision of defensive weapons, which is in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter that allows individual and collective self-defence."

This resolution, by calling for states to "stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, is finally giving the lie to Angela Merkel's and President of the EU Commission,Ursula von den Leyen's, continued assertion that Nord Stream2 is purely an economic contract between Putin and Germany, and not an attack on the economy of Ukraine.

And now, completely wrong-footing Putin, the Pope is willing to act as a mediator in talks between Zelensky and Putin to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Pope Francis is willing to mediate Volodymyr Zelensky's meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, a Vatican diplomat says." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021)

 Does Putin reject the Pope as a possible mediator between himself and Zelensky?

If so, how will this be viewed by his comrade in arms, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Vladimir Kirill?

 

As reported by the DW (Deutche Welle),

" Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill exchanged kisses and embraced each other before sitting down smiling for the historic meeting at the airport in Havana on Friday.... "At last we meet. We are brothers," the pope said as the two church leaders met. "Clearly this meeting is God's will."

"Now things are easier," Kirill, 69, added." (DW : 12 February 2016) (my emphasis)

Will Russian Patriarch Kirill be willing to jeopardize the continuing brotherly relations between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Catholic Church by supporting Putin if he rejects the Pope's offer as a mediator between himself and Zelensky?

This is also the dilemma now facing Putin in light of the offer to act as a mediator between himself and Zelensky by Pope Francis.

What makes this dilemma of Putin even more difficult for him to resolve is the fact that,

" [Zelensky] invited his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to hold talks in Donbas." (UNIAN: 29 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin's response was,

"On April 22, 2021, Putin responded to the invitation by suggesting that Zelensky could discuss the Donbas issue with the "leaders" of the two self-proclaimed republics, the "LPR/DPR," adding that Moscow remained open for contact on any other issues." (ibid UNIAN)  

This cursory dismissal by Putin of  holding talks with Zelensky in the Donbas now leaves him with no alternative other than to also dismiss the offer of Pope Francis as a possible mediator between them.

 

One is somewhat reminded of Navalny's retort during his recent trial that,

 

"In his final statement before Judge Kurysheva Natalia left to consider a decision, Navalny launched a tirade against Putin, likening him to the foolish king in the children's tale "The Emperor's New Clothes."

"I would like to say that your king [Putin] is naked, and more than one little boy is shouting about it -- it is now millions of people who are already shouting about it. It is quite obvious. Twenty years of incompetent rule have come to this: there is a crown sliding from his ears," Navalny said of Putin.." (Anna Chernova, Sebastian Shukla and Angela Dewan : CNN : 29 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 

 

Putin's threatening military invasion of Ukraine, his dismissal of talks with Zelensky in the Donbas, his possible dismissal of Pope Francis as a mediator, and the strongest ever resolution against him from the European Parliament, supports the contention of Navalny that "there is a crown sliding from his ears".

 

Adding to which, the railing of his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov,

 

" ....  [warning]  Ukrainian officials Wednesday that Moscow would not accept their push to revise a peace deal for eastern Ukraine.(Vladimir Isachenkov The Associated Press: Global News : 28 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 

further indicates that Putin is politically flailing to extricate himself from the international political fallout of his threatening to invade Ukraine by massing his army on Ukraine's border and in Ukraine's Crimea.

 

Zelensky should now politically tread cautiously in thinking that he can woo Putin by re-visiting the Minsk2 protocols.

 

 As reported by UNIAN,

 

"Spokesman for the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) Oleksiy Arestovych says the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, during a personal meeting may discuss a "revamp" for the Minsk agreements, in particular in the context of the banking system of the occupied territories of Donbas.

Arestovych added "there are many such clauses" and this, perhaps, would be one of the main issues of upgrading the Minsk agreements so that they can be implemented as such." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021)  (my emphasis)

Putin's mouthpiece, Sergey Lavrov, has already scuppered any such "revamp" by Zelensky.

 

Short of caving in on Putin's interpretation of Minsk2, Zelensky is on a political hiding to nothing in trying to "revamp" Minsk2.

 

 Zelensky should be careful not to squander his current political capital.

 

 

(to be continued)