Is Putin now fighting for his political life?

Seven years ago, in 2015, Peter Weber (left) reported that,

"After Russia's military occupation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea over the weekend, a lot of analysts are trying to gaze into Russian President Vladimir Putin's psyche.
...
But at least one world leader seems to think Putin isn't firmly anchored in reality. 

Here's Peter Baker (right) at The New York Times:

• "Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he [Putin] was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said. [New York Times] (The Week : 8 January 2015) (my emphasis)" (below: Merkel & Putin 2015)
  

Fast forward to to-day and we have French president Emmanuel Macron, like his predecessor before him Franscoise Hollande (cf: blog post 20/02/2015 ), constantly trying to appease a Putin who, in the words of Merkel in 2015, "...  not sure he [Putin] was in touch with reality" (ibid Peter Weber)

As reported by BBC News,

"Ukraine's foreign minister has hit out at French President Emmanuel Macron (left) after he said it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion.
...
Mr Macron said

it was crucial President Vladimir Putin had a way out of what he called a "fundamental error" (?????).
...
But Dmytro Kuleba (right) said allies should "better focus on how to put Russia in its place" as it "humiliates itself".
...
Mr Macron has repeatedly spoken to Mr Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations.
...
The French attempts to maintain a dialogue with the Kremlin leader contrast with the US and UK positions. ... " (BBC News :5 June 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Reuters 4/6/2022, Financial Times June 3 2022, amongst many other reports) 

GZERO Media : YouTube : 6 June 2022

And shortly after Macron's 'foot in mouth' argument that, " ...  it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion. ...", and that Putin had made, "... a fundamental error .." in starting his  genocidal second war with Ukraine, BBC News reports that,

"Russia will expand the list of targets it will attack in Ukraine if Western countries send long-range weapons to Kyiv, President Vladimir Putin says.
...
The warning came as explosions shook parts of Kyiv on Sunday in the first air strikes on the capital for weeks." (BBC News : 6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Adam Durbin reports, however, that,

"The UK is sending its first long-range missiles to Ukraine, the defence secretary has said, despite a threat from Russia to the West.
..
The government has not confirmed how many weapons will be sent, but the BBC understands it will be three initially.

The decision comes after the US announced last week it was also supplying a rocket system.

The move by the US to send its own M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) has already angered Moscow and on Sunday Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to expand the list of targets Russia will attack in Ukraine in response." (BBC News :6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

ABC News : 6 June 2022 : YouTube

And as the UK and US send long-range missile systems to Ukraine, the Russian TV propaganda system steps up pushing for Putin to use the 'nuclear' option.

As Chris Jewers reports,

"Vladimir Putin's state television propagandists have unleashed a new rant about launching nuclear weapons in response to Western weapons being sent to Ukraine.

Vladimir Solovyov, also known as 'Putin's voice', said Western deliveries of long-range weapons that could potentially strike into Russian territory means it is only a matter of time before nuclear war breaks out between Russia and the West." (MailOnline : 6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Chris Jewers and Will Stewart, (left) 

 "Moscow's space chief issued wild threats overnight about launching Russia's 'Satan-2' hypersonic missile against NATO countries after Vladimir Putin's top diplomat [Sergei Lavrov] was blocked from travelling to Serbia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (left) was forced to cancel his visit after Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro - three NATO countries around Serbia - closed their airspace to his aircraft, infuriating the Kremlin." (Mail Online : 6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And from the sidelines, Alys Davies reports that,

"Russia's UN ambassador has stormed out of a UN Security Council meeting after the European Council president blamed Russia's invasion of Ukraine for causing a global food crisis.
...
Charles Michel said Russia was using food supplies as a "stealth missile" against the developing world, forcing people into poverty.
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The Russian envoy Vassily Nebenzia (left) accused Mr Michel of spreading lies.
...
The war has left food stuck at Ukrainian ports." (BBC News : 7 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And yet ... and yet .... we have French President Macron announcing that,

"....  it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion." (ibid BBC News 5 June 2022)

Like Merkel and the current German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, President Macron is simply following in the political footsteps of his near predecessors, together with Olaf Scholtz, singing their 'political mantra of appeasement' towards Putin since his invasion of Ukraine's Crimea in 2014.

And finally we have Angela Merkel trying to justify her appeasement of Putin since 2014, when he started his FIRST war with Ukraine by illegally annexing Ukraine's Crimea and invading the Donbas.

As reported by Riham Alkousaa (left),

• Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday that she tried hard when she was in office to prevent the situation in Ukraine from developing to the current state, adding that she does not blame herself for not trying hard enough. 
• "It's a great sadness that it didn't work out, but I don't blame myself for not trying," said Merkel, speaking of the 2014 Minsk agreement with Russia.
  
• 
  The former chancellor defended her policy of supporting trade with Russia, saying Europe and Russia were neighbours that could not ignore each other. (Reuters : 7 June 2022) (my emphasis) (right: German economic jackboots marching over Ukraine towards Putin's Russian "economic bonanza" in 2014)
  

And so, even though Macron and Scholtz are desperately trying to protect Putin's 'face saving' (sic) political 'back' Putin, himself, is being forced to draw his 'Praetorian Guard' ever closer towards himself.

Will his 'Praetorian Guard' be able to protect him now against the Kremlin vultures circling as Russia becomes more isolated on the world stage?

Is Putin now fighting for his political life? 

 

(to be continued)

Are Macron and Scholtz selling out Ukraine with appeasement offers to a judgement-impaired Putin?

 In my last post I wrote that,

"Not only Olaf Scholtz but also Emmanuelle Macron, recent re-elected President Of France, is also coming under scrutiny for adopting the French version of Angela Merkel's appeasement of Putin.

As reported by Katya Adler (left),

"And while there's smouldering resentment that Germany has been too soft for too long on Moscow - driven largely, it's believed, by economic interests - many of the same critics are also impatient with Mr Macron for repeatedly pursuing diplomatic openings with Vladimir Putin." (BBC News : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

One should also not underestimate the French economic interests that underpin banker Macron's 'diplomatic tête-à-tête's' with Putin." (blog entry 23 May 2022)

And so it is that Macron and Scholtz have combined their forces to resucitate the "Angela Merkel appeasement of Putin policy."

But as reported by Oli Smith,

"France and Germany have been put on notice amid concerns in Ukraine that the two leading European Union member-states could strike a peace deal which rewards Russia. An advisor to the Ukrainian Parliament, Mykola Volkivskyi (right), revealed officials from Germany, Italy, and France are going to meet with Vladimir Putin "in the next few weeks". However, he said any attempt to surrender Ukrainian territory without Ukrainian consent would be "unacceptable"." (Express : 27 May 2022) (my emphasis)

The Sun : YouTube : 26 May 2022

As Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky also says,

"But still in [ the recent] Davos [meeting] (22 -26 May 2022) ... Mr. Kissinger emerges from the deep past and says that a piece of Ukraine should be given to Russia ... suppossedly that there is no alienation of Russia from Europe. You get the impression that Mr Kissinger's calendar is not 2022 but 1938, and he thinks he's talking to an audience not in Davos but in Munich" (video above)

And as now reported by Aleks Phillips,

"Those nations closest to Russia are said to be uneasy about the willingness of Emmanuel Macron, the French President, and Olaf Scholz, to speak with the Russian President while he continues to attack an ally. The latest phone call has reportedly reignited suspicions European leaders may push for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in order to bring a swift end to the conflict. " (Express : 29 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Aleks Phillips goes on to report that,

"Earlier today (Sunday), Robert Habeck, Germany’s economic minister, told a press conference European unity on oil and energy boycotts were “already starting to crumble”.
...
Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, told the FT: “It is incredible how the leaders of France and Germany are inadvertently paving the way for new acts of violence by Russia." (ibid Aleks Phillip)

There is something rather strange in the near urgency of this call between Putin, Macron, and Sholtz.

Reports are now emerging that Putin's health is deteriorating.

As reported by Nigel Nelson (left),

Vladimir Putin has been given a maximum of three years to live by doctors, according to a Russian intelligence source. The FSB officer said the Russian president, 69, “has a severe form of rapidly progressing cancer.” And he added: “He has no more than two to three years to stay alive.” The spy said the disease means Putin is also losing his sight. (The Mirror : 28 May 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: John Ward & Alex Grove (MSN News: Yorkshire Live 6 March 2022), Maryam Zakir-Hussain (The Independent : 30 May 2022) , Marion Langford  (news.com.au : 29 May 2022))

Nelson further reports that,

"Reports last week citing Kremlin sources claimed that Putin underwent successful cancer surgery 14 days ago." (ibid Nigel Nelson)

As Sir Richard Dearlove (right), former Head of MI6, states in an interview with Piers Morgan,

Piers Morgan : "If he [Putin] is, say, terminally ill with a cancer or something, and only he knows this ... Is that more dangerous because that may encourage him to do something reckless?"

Sir Richard Dearlove : "Well I think if he's seriously ill his judgement may be impaired ... So you have a collision, as it were, between the geopolitics of Russia and its loss of Ukraine and Putin's health ... "

Piers Morgan : Sky News : 30 May 2022

And yet, given that Putin's judgement may be impaired because of ill health and, in the words of Sir Richard, "So you have a collision, as it were, between the geopolitics of Russia and its loss of Ukraine and Putin's health", why is Macron and Scholtz having a telephone tête-à-tête with a possible judgement-impaired Putin to try and appease him with ..... with what????

A slice of Ukraine????

Added to which, as reported by BBC News,

"Russia's ambassador to Britain has told the BBC he does not believe his country will use tactical nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine.
.....
Andrei Kelin (left) said that according to Russian military rules, such weapons are not used in conflicts like this.
......
He also described allegations of war crimes in the town of Bucha as "a fabrication". (BBC News : 29 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Andrei Kelin may "not believe" that Putin will, in his current state of judgement-impairement, use tactical nuclear weapons, but Putin's propaganda machine in Russia is of another opinion. (video below : Russian TV 24 and 25 May 2022)

Then we also have that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), stating that,

"In response to a quoted question about the possibility of Russia nuking the adversary, the Russian Foreign Minister did not rule out the use of nuclear weapons in the future, emphasizing that Russia is fighting with conventional weapons “at this stage.”

“We are conducting our operation using conventional weapons. At this stage, it’s conventional weapons. Fighting for mother-truth,” the chief of Russian diplomacy said sarcastically." (Ukrinform : 30 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Which raises the question :

"What appeasement offers for a ceasefire in Putin's war with Ukraine were put before a possible judgement-impaired Putin by French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholtz?

(to be continued)

Putin can no longer bank on Germany and France to help him save face in his war with Ukraine.

In my blog entry of 20/02/2015 I wrote that,

"For the Germans what, really, is the difference between the terrorists in Iraq, and those in eastern Ukraine?

Two words rather sums it up viz. "Russlandversteher or Putinversteher"

As the Economist (May 10th 2014) pointed out many months ago,

"When Germans add the word Versteher (one who understands) to a term, they generally mix flattery with irony. So a Frauenversteher (one who understands women) is usually a man who boasts excessively about his knowledge of the opposite sex. The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the [German] elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties." (my emphasis)

So here, in their own backyard, many EU politicians are too scared to send military equipment to Ukraine's Poroshenko, who is fighting Putin-backed terrorists, but more than willing to send military equipment to, and with boots on the ground, fight terrorists thousands of miles away.

As Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., so succinctly stated, Merkel, like so many other EU leaders, will use,
 
 “any available excuse not to provide [Ukraine with] defensive arms.” ( Fox News): (Not Archived) (my emphasis)

This is what is emboldening Putin to prepare for his imminent attack on Mariupol." (blog entry : 20 February 2015) (video above : BBC News : 20 February 2015)

And even then, foremost amongst those "Putinversteher" was non  other than former German Chancellors, Gerhard Schroeder and Angela Merkel. 

Is is therefore any wonder that today, as reported by Constanze Stelzenmüller (left),

• Rolf Mützenich, the head of the SPD’s parliamentary faction,has denounced demands by his Green and Free Democratic coalition partners for heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine as “irresponsible.
• Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself is becoming thin-skinned. He has
  dismissed three Bundestag members who had visited Ukraine and called for more military support, as “boys and girls.” In a recent interview, he suggested sending heavy weapons would make Germany and NATO “parties to the war.”
• Ukraine is begging for heavy weapons, as Russia steps up its offensive in Donbas. But on this question Scholz has dithered, prevaricated and thrown up smoke, to mounting anger among Germany’s allies and his coalition partners. (Brookings : 26 April 2022) (my emphasis)
  

In April of this year, Germany's Justice Minister, Marco Buschmann (right), already put paid to Chancellor Sholtz's suggestion that, " ... sending heavy weapons would make Germany and NATO “parties to the war.” ".

As RFERL reported,

"The German justice minister says the delivery of tanks and other heavy weaponry to Ukraine would not -- by international law -- constitute his country’s entry into the war against Russia.
...
Justice Minister Marco Buschmann  told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper in an interview published on April 16 that international law does not label the delivery of weapons as an entry into war." (RFERL : 16 April 2022) (my emphasis)

So why is German Chancellor Scholtz (left) still shielding behind the legally discredited fig leaf that, " ... sending heavy weapons would make Germany and NATO “parties to the war.” when, according to his own Justice Minister, sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine, " ... would not -- by international law -- constitute [Germany's] entry into the war against Russia.???

As Reuf Bajrovic (right) writes,

"The Russian aggression against Ukraine has led to a reassessment of Germany’s long term Russia-centric Eastern European policy. The moral and political credibility in Europe that Germany rebuilt after WWII and enjoyed since the end of the Cold War is now spent.
...
Berlin’s reluctance to help Ukraine has shattered many convenient illusions about its eastward approaches. Critics argue that former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s appeasement of Russian President Vladimir Putin paved the way for what is now the largest armed conflict on the continent since the Second World War. "  (Haaretz : 12 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Not only Olaf Scholtz but also Emmanuelle Macron, recent re-elected President Of France, is also coming under scrutiny for adopting the French version of Angela Merkel's appeasement of Putin.

As reported by Katya Adler (left),

"And while there's smouldering resentment that Germany has been too soft for too long on Moscow - driven largely, it's believed, by economic interests - many of the same critics are also impatient with Mr Macron for repeatedly pursuing diplomatic openings with Vladimir Putin." (BBC News : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

One should also not underestimate the French economic interests that underpin banker Macron's 'diplomatic tête-à-tête's' with Putin.

BBC News : 10 May 2022

And as Putin continues to try to raze Ukraine's Donbas to the ground, both Macron and Scholtz find themselves in a rather 'knotty diplomatic' situation.

The success of President of Ukraine Zelesky's global diplomatic efforts to gain international support for Ukraine's effort to expunge Putin's forces from ALL of Ukrainian soil has, in some ways, exposed the appeasement policies of Macron, and the prevarications of Scholtz. 

Putin can now no longer bank on Germany and France to help him save face as he continues to lose in his war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin's threat to starve the innocent now coming to fruition

On April 5, 2022, Guy Faulconbridge reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia must keep a close eye on its food exports to hostile countries because the West's sanctions had fomented a global food crisis and spiralling energy prices.
...
"They will inevitably exacerbate food shortages in the poorest regions of the world, spur new waves of migration and in general drive food prices even higher," Putin told a meeting on developing food production.
...
"In these current conditions, a shortage of fertilisers on the global market is inevitable," Putin said. "We will have to be more careful about food supplies abroad, especially carefully monitor the exports to countries which are hostile to us." (Reuters : 5 April 2022) (my emphasis)

What is even more disconcerting, as reported in late April by DW, is that,

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being felt far and wide. The ravaged agricultural industry is causing shortages of staples such as wheat, sunflower oil, and corn. DW met a farmer struggling to pick up the pieces after Russian troops destroyed his livelihood." (DW : 22 April 2022) (my emphasis) 

And today, Putin's threats are becoming more manifest as he has ordered his navy to block Ukraine's ports from exporting grain and other foodstuffs to the rest of the world.

TRM : Turkish Broadcaster : You Tube : 19 May 2022

As reported by Martin Farrer,

"After pleas from western government and the United Nations to Moscow to allow the flow of food to avert possible famine in some countries, Medvedev said on Thursday that Russia was ready to do so but expected “assistance from trading partners, including on international platforms” in return
...
“Countries importing our wheat and other food products will have a very difficult time without supplies from Russia. And on European and other fields, without our fertilisers, only juicy weeds will grow,” added Medvedev, who served as president between 2008 and 2012 but is now deputy chairman of Russia’s security council." (The Guardian : 20 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Yet BOTH Putin and his puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, are trying to foist the global food crisis on the sanctions that have been placed on themselves, their 'siloviki', and their armaments industries, whilst the world can see that this global food crisis has arisen out of the second war that Putin started in Ukraine.

But just as Putin's second war in Ukraine is continuously backfiring on him, forcing him to resort to "threatening famine in many countries"; this dangerous "political flailing" will also backfire on him and his Kremlin cohorts.

The world sees Putin's and Medvedev's threats as pure and unadulterated "blackmail" against the global community. 

The starving of the world will see that Putin will not release food to them unless all the money that Putin and his 'siloviki' have stolen from the Russian people is handed back to them

More than anything else, this latest threat of Putin's, to light the touchpaper of  famine, amplifies the fact that Putin is the head of a criminal enterprise, NOT the head of a government.

(to be continued)

More dangerous than ever, Putin is now treading water.

Expecting Putin to shake his fist at the West and at Ukraine during his Victory Day Celebration speech in Red Square on May 9, many politicians around the world were caught off guard by his rather subdued tones in trying to link the defeat of Germany in 1945 to the ongoing 2022 war between himself and Ukraine in the Donbas. 

• NBC News's Yuliya Talmazan: "Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to justify his war in Ukraine on Monday, blaming the West and linking the conflict to World War II but not announcing any escalation despite fears from Kyiv and its allies. (NBC News : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)

• Aljazeera (Reuters) reported Putin announcing that : “Today, the volunteers of the Donbas, together with the soldiers of the Russian army, are fighting on their own lands. “I am now addressing our armed forces and the Donbas volunteers. You are fighting for the Motherland, for its future, so that no one forgets the lessons of World War II – so there is no place in the world for executioners, punishers and Nazis.” (Aljazeera : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)
• BBC News : What happens in the Donbas, however, offers Putin only a choice between different types of defeat. If the battle reaches an autumn stalemate, he will have precious little to show for so much loss and pain. If the military momentum shifts and his forces get pushed back, even more so. And even if the Russians succeed in overrunning the whole of the Donbas and all across the south, they still have to hold those territories for the indefinite future in the face of several million Ukrainians who don't want them there. (BBC News : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Disconcerting for Putin and his 'siloviki', Guy Faulconbridge (left) reported that,

"Russian satellite television menus were altered on Monday to show viewers in Moscow messages about the war in Ukraine: "You have blood on your hands", according to screenshots obtained by Reuters.
...
The photographs showed Moscow satellite television menus on Victory Day, when Russia celebrated the 77th anniversary of Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany, with every channel showing anti-war slogans.
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The slogans appeared just before the Victory Day parade on Red Square at which President Vladimir Putin compared the war in Ukraine to the Soviet battle to defeat Adolf Hitler in World War Two." (Reuters : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)

                                                 MSNBC : Rachel Maddow : 10 May 2022

We should now not underestimate the dangers that Putin's paranoid responses poses to what has happened on Russian satellite TV menus and on the continuing, and successful, push back against Putin's forces in the Donbas by the Ukrainian forces.

Sky News : YouTube : 9 May 2022

As reported by Tom Watling (left),

"Putin left devastated as Russian invaders obliterated in rare aerial frontline footage. Ukranian forces have destroyed Russian invaders and their equipment, new footage shows, as the defending military continue to repel Vladimir Putin's army." (Express : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Giulia Carbonaro (right),

"Russian troops in Ukraine appear to be rapidly retreating from the areas around Kharkiv while Ukrainian armed forces make significant advances north and northwest of the city, as shown by unverified maps tracking Moscow's invasion of the neighboring country." (Newsweek : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

In response, Putin's forces are focussing on repeating their 'blitzkrieg' against Mariupol on the port hub of Odessa.

As Reported by Michael Wasiura (left),

"On the morning of May 9, as part of the Moscow Victory Day festivities, Vladimir Putin placed flowers on the monument to World War II "hero city" Odessa. Later that night, a Russian attack that included the use of hypersonic "Kinzhal" air-to-surface missiles struck civilian targets in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa. At least one person was killed in the attack...... "Putin could not capture Odesa, and so he has started to destroy its infrastructure," Ukrainian Rada Deputy and Odesa native Oleksiy Honcharnko told Newsweek. " (MSN (Newsweek) : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting, however, as reported by Katie Bo Lillis and Michael Conte,

"The US intelligence community believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is likely to become “more unpredictable and escalatory” in the coming months, the nation’s director of national intelligence [Avril Haines] told Congress on Tuesday." (CNN : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis) 

Whilst Avril Haines may have discounted the idea that,

 " ... the intelligence community does not believe Putin would turn to the use of nuclear weapons unless he felt there was an existential threat to Russia" (ibid Katie Bo Lillis and Michael Conte)",

nonetheless  Russian State TV keeps threatening Nuclear Strikes—Should we be concerned? (Brendan Cole : Newsweek : 5 May 2022) (my emphasis)

"Hosts and panelists on Russian state television have always peddled anti-western rhetoric but the discussions justifying Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine have taken a more apocalyptic turn." (ibid Brendan Cole)

YouTube : 28 April 2022

 

Gravitas : YouTube : 4 May 2022

In light of the recent passing in the US Congress of, " ... $40 billion in additional military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine to fight against Russia's invasion " (Kelsey Snell : NPR : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)), Putin is more than backed up into a tight corner.

As reported by Tom Watling,

"US President Joe Biden said on Monday that he was concerned about Putin’s exit strategy in this war with Ukraine.
...
Speaking to a fundraiser in a suburb in Washington, Mr Biden said Putin was a “calculating man”.
...
But he added he did not think Putin knew how to get out of this conflict, saying: “I’m trying to figure out what we do about that”. " (Express : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is treading water! 

His increasing paranoia may push him over the brink as the vultures in the Kremlin begin to consider, "Life without Putin".

 (to be continued)

On Russia's Victory Day celebration, will Putin declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

Today (8th May 2022), on VE Day in Europe and the West, Ali Velshi (left) outlines the eery similarities between the impending military celebration tomorrow (9th May) in Red Square, to be overseen by Vladimir Putin, and the 9th May Celebrations in 1995, overseen by former Russian president, Boris Yeltsin.

The 1995 VE Day celebrations in Russia took place whilst the Russian army was laying waste to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.

And to-morrow, Vladimir Putin will be overseeing the VE military celebrations in Red Square as the Russian army is laying waste to Mariupol in Ukraine.

As Velshi reminds us,

"On that day .. May 9th 1995... Victory Day... even as Russia celebrated its heroic victory over Germany 50 years prior ...  Russia was deep into a brutal scortched earth campaign into the breakaway province of Chechnya .. In fact, the very next segment (cf video above) of the nightly news broadcast from May 9th 1995 was from Chechnya. It's impossible to watch it now and not see nearly word for word ... and image for image ... the parallels to today...

And on the eve of this victory day ... this year ... it describes the Ukrainian city of Mariupol ... where the last Ukrainian troops in that city remain holed up in a giant steel plant that has been the sight of an ongoing battle with Russian forces for days now" (MSNBC :  7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Jenny Hill (left),

" ... But this year will be different. Russia is at war once again - this time with its neighbour.
...
The question of what Mr Putin might do has set analysts guessing and rumours swirling.
...
The Kremlin has dismissed as nonsense reports that he might use the opportunity to officially declare war on Ukraine - or even the West - and seek to mobilise reservists or even civilians to replenish his depleted army.
...
But many experts assume that, at the very least, he'll dress up any territorial gains in eastern Ukraine as a victory worthy of celebration. Though that's unlikely to mean the end of the war. Mr Gallyamov makes a fascinating prediction, that Mr Putin will then present Ukraine with an ultimatum - come to the negotiating table or choose to fight on and face the threat of a tactical nuclear weapon. (BBC News : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Will Putin go nuclear?

Former British Diplomat, John Dobson (right) quotes Graham Allison, Professor of Government at Harvard University [as being] of the opinion that,

“if Putin is forced to choose between losing on one hand in Ukraine and escalating the level of destruction, there is every reason to believe that he’ll escalate the level of destruction”
...

“The nightmare scenario I envisage”, said Allison, “is that Dvornikov (left) conducts a nuclear strike on a small city in Ukraine, maybe 20,000 people, and then challenges Zelenskyy to imagine what a Ukrainian ‘Nagasaki’ would look like”—recalling that it was the Americans who dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima, killing more than 100,000 people, and then another bomb on Nagasaki before the Japanese emperor surrendered." (Sunday Guardian : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

However, as I quoted Evelyn Farkas in my last blog post,

" ..... this 'nuclear' business [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] is frankly not only irresponsible but also doesn't make sense because we have deterrence .. we have nuclear forces also at every level. If the Russian forces want to go there then they will be signing their own death certificate" (ibid CNN) (my emphasis).

 

The 'butcher of Allepo', Dvornikov, may be straining at the leash to unleash 'nuclear' hell on the world whereas Putin has been left to clean up the diplomatic mess of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

As reported by BBC News,

"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has apologised after his foreign minister said that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler had "Jewish blood", Israel says. Mr Putin made the apology in a call with Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, his office said in a statement....Russia's account of the conversation did not mention an apology." (BBC News : 6 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Even more disturbing for Putin, there is a tsunami of 'Russian diplomatic mess' brewing in Africa for Russia that he will soon have to contend with.

Many states in Africa that have chosen to pay 'lip service' to the UN condemnation of Putin's war with Ukraine now find themselves in the front line of having to cope with the very real economic and political repercussions that Putin's war in Ukraine is having in their countries.

As reported by The Economist, Putin's war in Ukraine has exacerbated the fuel problems in many countries in Africa.

"IN BURUNDI, DRIVERS are so desperate for fuel that they sleep on forecourts of petrol stations. Senegal has so little jet fuel that Air France’s flight from the capital, Dakar, to Paris has been stopping in the Canary Islands to fill up. Johannesburg has the same problem, which has caused United Airlines to cancel some flights from New York. From Kenya, which recently suffered its worst petrol shortage in a decade, to Lagos, where queues outside petrol stations backed onto motorways, and Cameroon, where thousands of lorries have been stranded without diesel, Africa has been short of the lifeblood of modern economies." (The Economist : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also earlier reported by Sally Hayden in Nairobi,

"From fuel to wheat, the invasion of Ukraine is already having a potentially devastating effect on prices across Africa.

• In Sierra Leone, a West African country with a population of roughly 8 million people, the maximum cost of a litre of fuel went from 12,000 leones (93c) per litre to 15,000 (€1.16) on Thursday.
•  More than 1,000km away, in Ghana, the cost of a litre of fuel went from roughly 6.4 cedis (79c) to 10 cedis (€1.23) a litre in just a few weeks, while the conversion rate for 1,000 cedis went from $150 to $125, said journalist Fentuo Tahiru Fentuo.
• In east Africa, the availability of wheat is of particular concern. Russia and Ukraine supply almost 90 per cent of Kenya’s wheat imports, according to figures released by the UN.

“War in Ukraine means hunger in Africa,” International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told journalists." (The Irish Times : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

So what can we expect from Putin to-morrow.

Will he declare war on Ukraine that is bound to generate the anger of Russian mothers against him as their sons are conscripted to fight in Ukraine?

Will he declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)