Putin now throwing 'everything' at Ukraine as a last resort.

In my blog entry of  20 February 2015 I wrote that,

"Two words rather sums it up viz. "Russlandversteher or Putinversteher"

As the Economist (May 10th 2014) pointed out many months ago,

"When Germans add the word Versteher (one who understands) to a term, they generally mix flattery with irony. So a Frauenversteher (one who understands women) is usually a man who boasts excessively about his knowledge of the opposite sex. The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the [German] elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties." (my emphasis)" (blog entry : 20 February 2015)

I also reported that,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel told supporters that "Germany and France together, will not ease off on doing everything so that Ukraine can go its way and have its territorial integrity -- but we want to do it with Russia, not against Russia." (Fox News : February 20, 2015) (my emphasis)" (ibid blog entry : 20 February 2015)

Fast forward to October 7 2023 and an essay in the Times argues that,

"Revival of the Danube axis spells trouble for Ukraine.

"Unjust peace with Putin is becoming increasingly attractive to central European leaders who are allowing economic anxiety and latent Russophilia [ read: 'Putinversteher']  to drive a wedge between them and the Zelensky government." (Times : 7 October 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Piotr H. Kosicki : The Atlantic : 4 October 2023)

As Kate Nicholson (left) also reports,

"A pro-Kremlin nationalist, Robert Fico, has just been voted into power in Slovakia ...
...
Fico wants “immediate peace negotiations”, too and end economic sanctions against Moscow.

[Robert Fico (right)] ... is known to be particularly friendly with Russia, and has made it clear that his role model is the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban." (Microsoft Start (HuffPost article)) : 6 October 2023) (my emphasis)

As Kate Nicholson further reports,

"But in mid-September, things started to go south as Warsaw prepared for its parliamentary elections in October 15.

On September 19, Zelenskyy accused some unnamed EU members of “feigning solidarity while directly supporting Russia”.

Warsaw summoned Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland – shortly afterwards, Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki announced his country would not be sending arms to Ukraine anymore.

He claimed Poland needed the arms for himself." (ibid Kate Nicholson)

More disconcerting for Ukraine's president Zelensky, Hans von der Burchard reports that,

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sought to justify his reluctance to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles on Thursday by naming constitutional constraints and the risk of an “escalation of the war.”
...
Yet Christian Mölling, the deputy director of the German Council on Foreign Relations and a renowned security expert, argued on X, formerly Twitter, that Germany would not take an active role in the war once it hands the cruise missiles over to Ukraine, and denounced Scholz’s concerns as “smoke grenades.” (Politico : 5 October 2023) (my emphasis)

CRUX : 3 October 2023 : YouTube

Let us not forget that pre-unification, Germany was comprised of TWO independent political states viz. Soviet East Germany and West Germany.

With unification, those Germans who lived in East Germany and were culturally, politically, and socially inculcated with the ideology that today is the very foundation of Putin's rationale for his war with Ukraine, are now fully incorporated into the body politic of Germany.

Consequently, as the Economist article of 2014 explained,

"... Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the [German] elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties .. " (Economist (May 10th 2014))

The political 'brouhaha' about continuing to finacially support President Zelensky in Ukraine's war with Putin in the US Congress is also cause for concern.

As reported by Steve Holland (left),

"President Joe Biden expressed fears on Wednesday that U.S. aid to Ukraine could be hurt by congressional chaos and said he will give a major speech soon to make the case for why it is necessary to help Ukraine repel Russian invaders.

Republican infighting in the House of Representatives has complicated budget negotiations and prompted Biden to go from confidence that an agreement will be made on Ukraine aid to now expressing worries about funding his top foreign policy priority." (Reuters : 4 October 2023) (my emphasis)

Reuters : 4 October 2023

As also reported by Tom Porter,

"At the Valdai Club conference Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin gloated over the potential impact of Western support for Ukraine ebbing.

"Imagine, if the supply is cut off tomorrow, you'll have a week to live, when the ammunition runs out," Putin told the conference.  (Yahoo News (Business Insider article) : 6 October 2023) (my emphasis) 

Against the backdrop of this political 'wobble' in support for Ukraine, Alessandra Scotto di Santolo (right) reports that,

"Russian officers are evacuating their families from the southern town of Tokmak as Ukrainian forces make advances.

In response, Vladimir Putin's troops are rapidly building bunkers and concrete trenches near the frontline in Zaporizhzhia, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

The fortifications are aimed at protecting Russian soldiers and command centres from heavy Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks, reflecting Russia's concerns about a possible Ukrainian breakthrough in the ongoing conflict." (Express : 7 October 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin will now throw 'everything' at Ukraine as his defeat on the battleground looms large.

UPDATE 1 : 9 October 2023

Max Hunder reports that,

"Ukraine's air force expects a record number of Russian drone attacks on its soil this winter, its spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said on Sunday, as Kyiv girds for a second winter of mass bombardment of its energy facilities. (Reuters : 8 October 2023) (my emphasis)

As also reported by James Callery and Will Stewart and Matt Strudwick,

"President Vladimir Putin has threatened the West with total nuclear destruction, leaving 'no chance of survival' in the event of a strike on Russia.

In a ranting anti-US speech, the dictator said his powerful 'Satan-2' and 'Flying Chernobyl' missiles are ready for deployment in an ominous doomsday warning. (Mail Online : 5 October 2023) (my emphasis)

BANG Showbiz : Microsoft Start : 8 October 2023

Tom Malley and Ellie Doughty also report that,

"Speculation over the Russian president's health has hit an all-time high amid rampant rumours of body doubles, cancer treatment, and even a diagnosis of Parkinson's disease." (The Sun : 8 October 2023) (my emphasis)

It would be foolish to ignore Putin's latest threats of 'nuclear armageddon'. 

 

 

 

(to be continued)

"Is Putin on the brink of collapsing?"

In my blog post of 23 August 2023 I reported that,

"It is now flooding the internet ether that the "Privileged Apartheid Reared South African (PARSA)", Elon Musk, 

" ... considered [last year] pulling Starlink satellite internet from Ukraine after having a “great conversation with Putin,” according to a former Pentagon official" (Josh Salisbury: Evening Standard: 22 August 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Kate Nicholson: Huffington Post : 22 August 2023)."

Chris Jewers (right) now reports that,

"Elon Musk escalated his feud with Ukraine last night with a tweet mocking the country's president Volodymyr Zelensky for his pleas for wartime assistance as the future of US aid to Kyiv hangs in the balance.

In a post on his social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Musk posted a meme showing a photoshopped image of the Ukrainian leader and the caption: 'When it's been 5 minutes and you haven't asked for a billion dollars in aid'.
...
Outrage quickly built over Musk's tweet, and Kyiv was quick to hit back at the billionaire by posting a derisive reply of its own." (Mail Online : 2 )ctober 2023) (my emphasis)

 Putin's Russian TV mouthpieces are 'cock-a-hoop" with joy at Musk's derisory tweet about Ukraine's president Zelensky.

Indeed, in the words  of  Olga Skabeeva (left with Elon Musk as Russian General),

"Against the backdrop of American squabbles, the wealthiest man in the world, Elon Musk, who is now known as "Elon Moskal", added more fuel to the fire and Zelensky is aflame.
...
 Elon Musk is magnificent, he in wonderful. Perhaps Elon Musk really is our agent" (Russian Media Monitor : 3 October 2023) (my emphasis)

Russian Media Monitor : 3 October 2023 : YouTube

Elon Musk's 'tweet' has given Putin some respite from his furious and anxious pacing around in his bunker.

News from the Ukrainian front has, however, evaporated this momentary respite and given Putin nightmares.

As reported by Alice Scarsi (left),

"The war against Ukraine, addressed by the Kremlin and Russian propagandists as a "special military operation", is getting closer to civilians in Russia through rounds of conscriptions, campaigns to join the war and drone attacks.
...
"Society is becoming more militarised as Russia’s situation worsens. Civilian volunteers are being asked to patrol an air base." (Express : 2 October 2023) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Thibault Spirlet (right),

"Ukraine's "army of drones" has ramped up its attacks on Russian positions, hitting a record number of Russian tanks, trucks, and artillery last week, a Ukrainian official said.

Between September 25 and October 2, Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles hit a record 220 pieces of Russian military equipment, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, said in a post on Telegram.

Drones damaged or destroyed 69 guns, 17 self-propelled artillery, 33 tanks, and 41 trucks, he said, citing data from Ukraine's Army of Drones government initiative." (Thibault Spirlet :Microsoft Start (Business Insider) : 2 October 2023) (my emphasis)

Microsoft Start (Business Insider) : 2 October 2023

More significantly, as reported by David Axe (left),

"We knew the Ukrainian air force was firing 1960s-vintage 5V28 air-defense missiles at targets on the ground in Russia.

What’s most telling is where the launcher is located: apparently in the middle of nowhere, presumably somewhere on the Ukrainian side of the front line. That strongly implies the Ukrainians have adapted the launcher to be more mobile.
...
Now, for the first time, we’ve seen one of the do-it-yourself deep-strike missiles at the moment of launch. A video that circulated on social media on Monday depicts an eight-ton 5V28 blasting off from its fixed launcher then quickly popping off its side-mounted solid rocket boosters.
...
Deployed near the front line, the 5V28 possesses the range to threaten Russian forces across occupied Ukraine as well as deep into Russia proper." (Forbes : 2 October 2023) (my emphasis) 

 

Dmitri on 'X' (Formerly Twitter) : 2 October 2023

It is therefore no wonder that the clamour inside Putin's propaganda machine is, once again, hysterically calling for the unleashing of a 'nuclear armageddon'.

As reported by Paul Withers (left),

"A key Kremlin and Vladimir Putin ally has warned the threat of using nuclear weapons is becoming "increasingly uncontested" after claiming an "attack drone" fell near her home.

Margarita Simonyan (right) editor-in-chief of RT state-controlled television channel Russia Today (RT), is the latest Putin ally to make a chilling nuclear threat during her country's war with Ukraine.
...
The increased use of drones from Ukraine as a form of attack in the war has seen Russia ramp up such threats.

Now Simonyan has now issued a chilling warning, suggesting a "nuclear ultimatum" may be inevitable." (Express : 2 October 2023) (my emphasis)

This follows on from Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitri Medvedev who, as reported by Iona Cleave (left),

"Vladimir Putin's closest ally has threatened to unleash World War 3 on the West if UK sends troops on to Ukrainian soil.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday that any Brit soldiers training soldiers inside Ukraine would be legitimate targets for Russian forces and "ruthlessly destroyed"." (The Sun : 1 October 2023) (my emphasis)

The Sun : 1 October 2023

And let us not forget that, as reported by Jen Kirby (left),

“In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech Wednesday [20 September 2023]. “This is not a bluff.”

When a nuclear-armed state says it’s willing to use “all weapon systems available to us,” it is impossible not to take the threat seriously. For everyone involved in the war in Ukraine — Russia, Ukraine, and the West — Putin, at least rhetorically, raised the stakes of the conflict he started." (Vox : 22 September 2023) (my emphasis)

The critical question now is :-

"Is Putin on the brink of collapsing?" 

UPDATE 1 : 3 October @ 20.56

Matthew Dooley (left) reports that,

"Russia is set to hold nationwide nuclear drills today (October 3) in preparation for "the danger of armed conflicts involving nuclear powers".
...
This is the first time nationwide drills have been held, though there have been similar, smaller drills in specific regions.

It will also imagine there is possible widespread radioactive contamination after a general mobilization ended. Leaders across Russia, including "from civil defence leaders to heads of state corporations", will take part in the drill. The occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will be exempt." (Express : 3 October 2023) (my emphasis)

These drills that are being held tells us that Putin's military chain-of-command are themselves now preparing to unleash a nuclear war that will inevitably lead to WW3.

What these drills also tell us is that Putin simply cannot come to terms with the fact that Ukraine's counter-offensive is about overwhelm his army of occupation. 

UPDATE 2 : 4 October 2023 @ 07.39

Alessandra Scotto di Santolo and Tim McNulty inform us that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin might be on the verge of unleashing his fearsome Burevestnik nuclear missile—a weapon with an ominous reputation, often dubbed the "flying Chernobyl" by experts.

The missile, powered by nuclear energy and boasting an allegedly unlimited range, has the capability to remain airborne for weeks, making it a highly unsettling prospect for the international community.

Despite a track record of 13 previous failed tests, recent satellite imagery and aviation data have raised concerns about Putin's intentions.

The indicators strongly suggest that the Russian leader, who is set to celebrate his 71st birthday this Saturday, might be preparing to launch this doomsday device." (Express : 3 October 2023) (my emphasis)

 As Jen Kirby recently reported (Vox : 22 September 2023),

" ... we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech Wednesday [20 September 2023]. “This is not a bluff.”

n 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin's "Day of Reunification" is doomed to be short lived.

In 1938,

"The military occupation of Czechoslovakia by Nazi Germany began with the German annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938, continued with the creation of the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia, and by the end of 1944 extended to all parts of Czechoslovakia." (Wikipedia)

Hitler Archive on YouTube and  Microsoft Start (CNN) : 30 September 2023

Fast forward to 2022 and, as reported by Aljazeera,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has proclaimed the annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions at a signing ceremony in the Kremlin.
...
At the ceremony on Friday, Putin said Russia has “four new regions”, calling the residents of Ukraine’s occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions “our citizens forever”." (Aljazeera : 30 September 2022) (my emphasis)

 Recently,  Ryan Fahey (left) reported that,

"While promising that "nothing and no-one" will stop him, he addressed the Russian people to mark his newly declared Day of Reunification and remember the day last year when he illegally incorporated the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics into Russia. Parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions were also seized in a move he today hailed as “a defining and truly historic event”. All are legally part of a Ukraine's sovereign territory under international law." (Mirror : 30 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Mirror : Ryan Fahey : 30 September 2023

Putin's warmongering mood against Ukraine in his recent TV address has now been given  unexpected and direct political support by,

 "The populist party of former Prime Minister Robert Fico (left) that wants to stop military aid to Ukraine and is critical of the European Union and NATO has won Slovakia’s election, results showed on Sunday.
...
The 59-year-old Fico has promised that Slovakia, one of Europe’s biggest donors to Ukraine as a share of its gross domestic product (GDP), will not send “a single round of ammunition” to Ukraine and has called for better relations with Russia." (Aljazeera : 1 October 2023) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Tim McNulty (right),

"Slovakia's election has sent shockwaves through the Western alliance as the victory of pro-Russian former Prime Minister Robert Fico's populist SMER party threatens the crack Europe's united front in support of Ukraine.
...
Moscow is likely looking at the results with glee though despite the results of the election whether SMER can cobble together the coalition to enter government is yet to be confirmed." (Express : 2 October 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Jeff Mason,

"U.S. President Joe Biden on Sunday pressed congressional Republicans to back a bill to provide more aid to Ukraine, saying he was “sick and tired” of the political brinkmanship that nearly led to a government shutdown."

Reuters :1 October 2023

" .... The bill, which lasts through Nov. 17, did not include aid for Kyiv.
...
“We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted. I fully expect the speaker to keep his commitment to secure the passage and support needed to help Ukraine as they defend themselves against aggression and brutality,” he told reporters at the White House." (Reuters :1 October 2023) (my emphasis) 

Fred Pleitgen : CNN report : 2 October 2023

Putin's gleeful euphoria over the election of Slovakia’s Robert Fico, and the US delay in aid for Ukraine, thanks to the Republican Party in Congress, will be rather short-lived.

As reported by Aurora Bosotti (left),

"Russia's gas production has suffered yet another collapse this year, reaching numbers not seen since before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Gazprom announced.
...
The drop comes as European nations continue on their path to find alternatives to Russian supplies following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and amid a swathe of sanctions seeking to cripple Moscow's finances.
...
Russian-language news outlet Agentstvo said the state energy company "has never had such a low production rate in its entire history", noting that "the last time there was a similar figure was in the Soviet Union in 1978." "(Express : 30 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Amplifying the panic at Gazprom, Aurora Bosotti further reports that

"Concerns about gas appear to be at the forefront of the Kremlin's mind, as a key ally of Putin earlier in the week appeared to suggest Moscow is prepared to target refineries in The Netherlands to cut off European supplies.

Appearing on state TV, Russian Parliament member Andrey Gurulyov said he was "surprised" to learn that "almost 50 percent of oil refining is in the Netherlands," and that the distribution of the refineries is "very dense and very close to each other. Very dense."

His assessment prompted propagandist Vladimir Solovyov to point out that the Netherlands would be "a perfect target for a cluster munition." (ibid Aurora Bosotti)

Like Putin's glove puppet Dmitry Medvedev, Andrey Gurulyov and Vladimir Solovyov are also reduced to threatening 'armageddon' against the UK, NATO, the EU, and the US. 

However, soon to be headed for Ukraine, as reported by Norman Hermant (right),

"A replica cannon mounted on the back of a pick-up truck tracks its target, part of a weapons system that launches "hard kill" strikes to blow drones out of the sky.

It is called Slinger and it is designed to counter drones at a cost that countries like Ukraine can afford." (ABC News Australia : 2 October 2023) (my emphasis)

ABC News Australia : 2 October 2023

 And as CNN's Radina Gigova (left) reports,

"Ukraine is ready to offer special conditions to companies that are willing to develop weapons production jointly with Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday.

He made the comments as he met with representatives from defense companies from countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Turkey, Sweden and the Czech Republic." (CNN : 2 October 2023) (my emphasis)

Like a drowning man clutching at straws, Putin declaration that his occupation of parts of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions signifies a "Day of Reunification" is a rather hollow celebration.

Notwithstanding that he now has Robert Fico of Slovakia to add to Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán as his stalwart supporters in the EU, the fact remains that the inexorable march of Zelensky's army towards to Sea of Azov continues apace.

Putin's "Day of Reunification", it seems, is doomed to be short-lived.

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin's political survival now hangs in the balance

There is an urgency for Ukraine to achieve its most important counter-offensive military aims as autumn inexorably marches towards winter.

As reported by Vasco Cotovio, Frederik Pleitgen, Daniel Hodge and Kostyantyn Gak,

"Two Ukrainian soldiers huddle around a drone controller in darkness, their faces illuminated only by its screen.

“Oh, something is burning,” one says. They’ve just dropped a bomb on a Russian target.
...
As the drone attack picks up pace, other units join the battlefield: powerful artillery makes itself heard, showering the moonlit Russian positions with US-donated cluster munitions at a fast pace.
...
It’s a comprehensive assault and, at their headquarters, Code 9.2 commander call sign ‘Flint’ says this operation has been weeks in the making." (CNN : 27 September 2023) (my emphasis)  

CNN : 27 September 2023

As also reported by Max Channon (left),

"Ukraine is said to be unleashing "hell" on Russia's defences as its counteroffensive continues to make territorial gains. It comes as Vladimir Putin's elite fighting forces and military top brass continue to suffer "extreme attrition", according to the UK's Ministry olf Defence (MoD).

In the east of Ukraine, the battle for Bakhmut - which was captured by Russia in May - continues to rage on, with fierce fighting continuing after Kyiv's troops liberated a key village. And Ukrainian armed forces say the heavy artillery, supplied by the United States and its NATO allies, are a making a big difference in the war." (Express : 23 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

Further supporting Ukraine's counter-offensive military aims, Aurora Bosotti (right) reports that,

"Russia could be set for a new series of setbacks from next week as Ukraine is now expected to receive new "game-changing" munitions from Washington, a former US Army officer forecast.
...
[Dan] Rice (a former US Army officer) suggested Washington could green-light the delivery of longer-range cluster munition rockets to Ukraine as early as "next week" – putting a considerable obstacle on Vladimir Putin's path to victory." (Express : 25 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

 Compounding the growing panic of Putin and his forces, Matthew Dooley also reports that,

"Russian leadership in Crimea is panicking following Ukraine’s precision strike on Moscow’s Black Sea headquarters, a former Ukrainian parliamentary advisor told Daily Express US.

Mykola Volkivskyi claimed that the strike - which Ukraine says killed 34 Russian officers - had sent shockwaves through Russia-backed leadership in Crimea" (Express : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by Tuqa Khalid (left),

"Russia is trying to create new assault units to build up its armed forces in the face of Ukraine’s counter-offensive; however, “endemic mobilization issues” persist, Russian media and the Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW) reported.

Russian outlet Izvestia, citing sources in the Russian military, reported that “a decision has been made to create separate reconnaissance and assault brigades. The recruitment of new units has already begun. The new formations will be part of the combined arms armies, as well as newly formed army corps.” (Alarabiya News : 27 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Nor is it any wonder that, yet again, Putin's 'glove-puppet' Dmitry Medvedev is once again shaking his puny 'nuclear' fists against the West.

As reported by Matthew Dooley,

"Vladimir Putin’s right-hand man has issued a chilling threat to NATO as the alliance continues to support Ukraine.

Dmitri Medvedev (right) - Russia’s former president and Putin’s staunch ally - took to Telegram to threaten NATO following the delivery of US Abrams tanks to Ukraine

He said: “It seems that Russia is being left with less and less choice other than a direct conflict with NATO on the ground.” (Express : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Could this 'empty' threat of Medvedev have anything to do with the fact that,

"A new poll that is being conducted in Russia hints that the public is preparing for life after Vladimir Putin, according to a former speechwriter for the Russian president.

Abbas Gallyamov, who held that role from 2008 to 2010, said on Monday that the oldest polling institution in post-Soviet Russia is asking the public what life would look like after Putin is no longer Russian president, and who could replace him as leader." (Isabel van Brugen : Newsweek : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Newsweek : 26 September 2023

And against the backdrop of Ukraine's ongoing and successful counter-offensive against Putin's forces, Edith M. Lederer reports that,

"The foreign minister of Belarus, which has a strategic partnership with Russia, says he cannot envision a situation where his country would enter the war in Ukraine alongside Russian forces.

Sergei Aleinik (right) said in an interview with The Associated Press that he also can’t imagine a situation where Russia would order his country to use the tactical nuclear weapons it recently deployed in Belarus.

“I don’t see such an option because it is an instrument of defense primarily,” he said of the missiles." (AP News : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

It would seem, however, that Putin's 'glove puppet', Dmitry Medvedev, has other ideas about the use of Putin's A-bombs in Belarus, notwithstanding the 'political imagination' of Sergei Aleinik.

Underscoring Putin's fear of his political downfall, Charles R. Davis reports that,

"The Kremlin-backed head of a separatist region in eastern Ukraine is imposing a regime of military censorship — and a ban on going outside during the night — as fierce fighting continues in the self-proclaimed "republic" of Donetsk.

In a decree published Sunday, Denis Pushilin (right), head of the Donetsk People's Republic, "imposed military censorship on mail, Internet communications and phone conversations," Russian state media reported.

The decree also prohibits public gatherings that have not received prior approval from military authorities, according to Reuters. Civilians are likewise banned from going outside on weekdays between 11 p.m. and 4 a.m.; workers are also barred from going on strike, per Ukrainska Pravda." (Yahoo News (Business Insider article) ; 24 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin is now critically aware that his political survival now hangs in the balance.

 

 

 

(to be continued)

The looming danger of Putin lashing out

In an impassioned speech at the 2023 meeting of the UN General Assembly, US President Biden stated that,

"Certain principles of our international system are sancrosanct. Sovereignty, territorial integrity, human rights. These are the core tenets of the UN Charter, the pillars of peaceful relations amongst nations.
...
For the second year in a row this gathering, dedicated to the peaceful resolution of conflicts, is darkened by the shadow of war. An illegal war of conquest, brough about
by Russia against its neighbour, Ukraine. Like every nation in the world the United States wants this war to end. .... Russia alone bears responsibility for this war.... No nation wants this war to end more than Ukraine.
 ...
If we allow Ukraine to be carved up is the independence of any nation secure? I respectfully suggest the answer is, "No!". We have to stand up to this naked aggression today and deter other would be agressors tomorrow." (CBS News : 20 September 2023) (my emphasis)

CBS News : 20 September 2023 : YouTube

And in France, as reported by the Mirror,

"King Charles was given a standing ovation yesterday (20 Sept 2023) when he addressed the French parliament.
...
In his speech, Charles deplored Russia’s “horrifying” invasion of Ukraine and urged the world to stay steadfast in its support for Kyiv. His message could not have been more timely. There are fears that if Donald Trump wins the presidential election next year he will pull the plug on US military support." (Mirror : 21 September 2023) (my emphasis)

The Mirror goes on to report that,

"Cracks are also beginning to appear in Europe’s united front, with Poland announcing it was halting arms shipments to Ukraine. Kyiv’s forces have regained yet more territory from the Russian occupiers during their summer offensive. There can be no let-up in our resolve if we want Ukraine to triumph." (ibid the Mirror) (my emphasis)

 These cracks all stem from Putin's refusal to extend a United Nations-brokered deal to safely ship Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated his stance on reinstating a United Nations-brokered deal to safely ship Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea only after the West meets Moscow’s demands on its agricultural exports.

The Russian president’s remarks on Monday came after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea city of Sochi in the hope of reviving the agreement seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
...
The United States and the European Union have dismissed Moscow’s complaints as without merit, saying their sanctions do not target Russian grain and fertilisers." (Aljazeera : 4 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Aljazeera : 4 September 2023)

Let us recall, as reported by Nigel Hunt (left),

"The European Commission has announced restrictions on the imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria until June 5.

The move led to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria lifting unilateral import bans they had imposed citing the need to protect their farmers. Romania had not banned imports."
...
Farmers in eastern Europe initially benefitted financially from the Ukraine conflict as prices for their crops rose sharply in line with global grain markets.

They have, however, faced increased competition in local markets from Ukrainian grain and oilseeds. The farmers have also found it more difficult and more expensive to transport their crops as many of the trucks and railwagons they would typically use are carrying large volumes of supplies from Ukraine instead." (Reuters : 9 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Recently, however, as reported by Jorge Liboreiro (right),

"The European Commission has lifted the temporary bans on Ukrainian grain after Kyiv agreed to tighten control over its agricultural exports.

But the measure failed to satisfy Poland and Hungary, which swiftly announced they would impose their own nationwide prohibitions on a unilateral basis, the very chaotic scenario that Brussels wanted to avoid at all costs." (EuroNews : 15 September 2023) (my emphasis)  (cf also: Andy Bounds et al: Financial Times :15 September 2023)

This standoff between Poland and the EU over the lifting of a ban against Ukrainian grain has now led to, as reported by Alexander Butler (left),

"Poland has said it will stop exporting weapons to Ukraine as a week of escalating tensions between the two countries reached boiling point over a ban on grain imports.

Microsoft Start (Independent article) : 22 Septrember 2023

 ...
The row between the neighbouring countries began last week when Poland imposed an import ban on Ukrainian grain, including wheat and maize, after an EU-brokered deal expired. " (Microsoft Start (Independent article) : 22 Septrember 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's euphoria at this current spat between Poland and Ukraine has, however been rather short lived.

As reported by The Guardian (Associated Press),

"Zelenskiy secures $325m in new US aid even as Republican support wanes.
...
The administration did announce another $325m Thursday in what’s known as presidential drawdown assistance for Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the package would include additional air defense, artillery ammunition, cluster munitions and other arms."  (The Guardian (Associated Press) : 22 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Matthew Dooley (left),

"Ukrainian armoured vehicles have smashed through a gap in Russian defences on the Zaporizhzhia front, it has been reported.

Eight-wheeled Stryker and tracked Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles were seen behind Russian tank traps and dragon’s teeth near Verbove - suggesting a potential Ukrainian tactical breakthrough in the area.

Russia analyst for The Institute for the Study of War, George Barros, said the news could mean Kyiv was preparing for another big push." (Express : 21 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

As also reported by Nicholas Cecil (right),

"Ukrainian armoured vehicles are operating beyond the final ‘formidable” line of the Russian three-layered defences in the south of the country, military experts said on Friday.
...
In its latest intelligence update, the Ministry of Defence in London said: “Over the last four days, both Russia and Ukraine have experienced unusually intense attacks deep behind their lines. There have been reports of explosions at Russian logistics sites, air bases and command posts in Crimea, the Krasnodar region, and near Moscow." (Evening Standard : 22 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

Having been :-

• excoriated at the recent UN General Assembly meeting,
  
• and with Ukraine's forces successfully moving towards the Sea of Azov,
  
• together with Ukraine securing $325m in new US aid,

Putin is now drinking in the "last chance saloon".

And this is the looming danger of him lashing out. 

UPDATE 1: 22 September 2023 : 14.07

BBC News has just reported that,

"A missile has hit the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea navy in Crimea, Russia says.
...
Videos on social media show smoke billowing from the building - we are working to verify images as they emerge
...
One serviceman is missing, Russia's defence ministry says, updating an earlier report that said he had been killed
...
The Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol has warned residents to stay away from the city centre. (BBC News : 22 September 2023) (my emphasis)

BBC News : 22 September 2023

CNN : Fri, September 22, 2023 at 2:01 PM GMT+1 

 

UPDATE 2 : 23 September 2023: 04.16 BST :

 

Jaroslav Lukiv has just reported that,

"US President Joe Biden plans to give Ukraine advanced long-range missiles to help Kyiv with its ongoing counter-offensive, US media report.

They quote US officials familiar with the issue as saying Ukraine will get some ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (300km).

This would enable Kyiv to hit Russian targets deep behind the front line.

At least one Ukrainian missile hit the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in annexed Crimea on Friday.

A Ukrainian military source told the BBC the attack in the port of Sevastopol was carried out using Storm Shadow missiles, which are supplied by Britain and France, highlighting the importance of Western weaponry to Kyiv.

Such missiles have a range of just over 150 miles." (BBC News : 23 September 2023) (my emphasis)

 

 

BBC News : 23 September 2023 

 

In 2014, Putin's "little green men" invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea. This was the fuse that Putin lit in 2014 that has led to his current war with Ukraine.

 

The people of Russia rejoiced at this landgrab of Putin, and held him aloft as a near 'messianic' figure that was raising them from the rubble of the fall of the old USSR.

 

Now Putin and the people of Russia are reaping the Ukrainian whirlwind of that ill-fated land grab of Putin in 2014. 

 

 

 

(to be continued)