Putin's political survival now hangs in the balance

There is an urgency for Ukraine to achieve its most important counter-offensive military aims as autumn inexorably marches towards winter.

As reported by Vasco Cotovio, Frederik Pleitgen, Daniel Hodge and Kostyantyn Gak,

"Two Ukrainian soldiers huddle around a drone controller in darkness, their faces illuminated only by its screen.

“Oh, something is burning,” one says. They’ve just dropped a bomb on a Russian target.
...
As the drone attack picks up pace, other units join the battlefield: powerful artillery makes itself heard, showering the moonlit Russian positions with US-donated cluster munitions at a fast pace.
...
It’s a comprehensive assault and, at their headquarters, Code 9.2 commander call sign ‘Flint’ says this operation has been weeks in the making." (CNN : 27 September 2023) (my emphasis)  

CNN : 27 September 2023

As also reported by Max Channon (left),

"Ukraine is said to be unleashing "hell" on Russia's defences as its counteroffensive continues to make territorial gains. It comes as Vladimir Putin's elite fighting forces and military top brass continue to suffer "extreme attrition", according to the UK's Ministry olf Defence (MoD).

In the east of Ukraine, the battle for Bakhmut - which was captured by Russia in May - continues to rage on, with fierce fighting continuing after Kyiv's troops liberated a key village. And Ukrainian armed forces say the heavy artillery, supplied by the United States and its NATO allies, are a making a big difference in the war." (Express : 23 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

Further supporting Ukraine's counter-offensive military aims, Aurora Bosotti (right) reports that,

"Russia could be set for a new series of setbacks from next week as Ukraine is now expected to receive new "game-changing" munitions from Washington, a former US Army officer forecast.
...
[Dan] Rice (a former US Army officer) suggested Washington could green-light the delivery of longer-range cluster munition rockets to Ukraine as early as "next week" – putting a considerable obstacle on Vladimir Putin's path to victory." (Express : 25 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

 Compounding the growing panic of Putin and his forces, Matthew Dooley also reports that,

"Russian leadership in Crimea is panicking following Ukraine’s precision strike on Moscow’s Black Sea headquarters, a former Ukrainian parliamentary advisor told Daily Express US.

Mykola Volkivskyi claimed that the strike - which Ukraine says killed 34 Russian officers - had sent shockwaves through Russia-backed leadership in Crimea" (Express : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by Tuqa Khalid (left),

"Russia is trying to create new assault units to build up its armed forces in the face of Ukraine’s counter-offensive; however, “endemic mobilization issues” persist, Russian media and the Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW) reported.

Russian outlet Izvestia, citing sources in the Russian military, reported that “a decision has been made to create separate reconnaissance and assault brigades. The recruitment of new units has already begun. The new formations will be part of the combined arms armies, as well as newly formed army corps.” (Alarabiya News : 27 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Nor is it any wonder that, yet again, Putin's 'glove-puppet' Dmitry Medvedev is once again shaking his puny 'nuclear' fists against the West.

As reported by Matthew Dooley,

"Vladimir Putin’s right-hand man has issued a chilling threat to NATO as the alliance continues to support Ukraine.

Dmitri Medvedev (right) - Russia’s former president and Putin’s staunch ally - took to Telegram to threaten NATO following the delivery of US Abrams tanks to Ukraine

He said: “It seems that Russia is being left with less and less choice other than a direct conflict with NATO on the ground.” (Express : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Could this 'empty' threat of Medvedev have anything to do with the fact that,

"A new poll that is being conducted in Russia hints that the public is preparing for life after Vladimir Putin, according to a former speechwriter for the Russian president.

Abbas Gallyamov, who held that role from 2008 to 2010, said on Monday that the oldest polling institution in post-Soviet Russia is asking the public what life would look like after Putin is no longer Russian president, and who could replace him as leader." (Isabel van Brugen : Newsweek : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Newsweek : 26 September 2023

And against the backdrop of Ukraine's ongoing and successful counter-offensive against Putin's forces, Edith M. Lederer reports that,

"The foreign minister of Belarus, which has a strategic partnership with Russia, says he cannot envision a situation where his country would enter the war in Ukraine alongside Russian forces.

Sergei Aleinik (right) said in an interview with The Associated Press that he also can’t imagine a situation where Russia would order his country to use the tactical nuclear weapons it recently deployed in Belarus.

“I don’t see such an option because it is an instrument of defense primarily,” he said of the missiles." (AP News : 26 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

It would seem, however, that Putin's 'glove puppet', Dmitry Medvedev, has other ideas about the use of Putin's A-bombs in Belarus, notwithstanding the 'political imagination' of Sergei Aleinik.

Underscoring Putin's fear of his political downfall, Charles R. Davis reports that,

"The Kremlin-backed head of a separatist region in eastern Ukraine is imposing a regime of military censorship — and a ban on going outside during the night — as fierce fighting continues in the self-proclaimed "republic" of Donetsk.

In a decree published Sunday, Denis Pushilin (right), head of the Donetsk People's Republic, "imposed military censorship on mail, Internet communications and phone conversations," Russian state media reported.

The decree also prohibits public gatherings that have not received prior approval from military authorities, according to Reuters. Civilians are likewise banned from going outside on weekdays between 11 p.m. and 4 a.m.; workers are also barred from going on strike, per Ukrainska Pravda." (Yahoo News (Business Insider article) ; 24 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin is now critically aware that his political survival now hangs in the balance.

 

 

 

(to be continued)